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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improvements in Total Column Ozone in GEOSCCM and Comparisons with a New Ozone-Depleting Substances Scenario

The evolution of ozone is examined in the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) using old and new ozone-depleting substances (ODS) scenarios. This version of GEOSCCM includes a representation of the quasi-biennial oscillation, a more realistic implementation of ozone chemistry at high solar zenith angles, an improved air/sea roughness parameterization, and an extra 5 parts per trillion of CH3Br to account for brominated very short-lived substances. Together these additions improve the representation of ozone compared to observations. This improved version of GEOSCCM was used to simulate the ozone evolution for the A1 2010 and the newStratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) 2013 ODS scenario derived using the SPARC Lifetimes Report 2013. This new ODS scenario results in a maximum Cltot increase of 65 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), decreasing slightly to 60 pptv by 2100. Approximately 72% of the increase is due to the longer lifetime of CFC-11. The quasi-global (60degS-60degN) total column ozone difference is relatively small and less than 1Dobson unit on average and consistent with the 3-4% larger 2050-2080 average Cly in the new SPARC 2013 scenario. Over high latitudes, this small change in Cly compared to the relatively large natural variabilitymakes it not possible to discern a significant impact on ozone in the second half of the 21st century in a single set of simulations.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS2013

Connections Between the Spring Breakup of the Southern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, Stationary Waves, and Air-sea Roughness

A robust connection between the drag on surface-layer winds and the stratospheric circulation is demonstrated in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Specifically, an updated parameterization of roughness at the air-sea interface, in which surface roughness is increased for moderate wind speeds (4ms to 20ms), leads to a decrease in model biases in Southern Hemispheric ozone, polar cap temperature, stationary wave heat flux, and springtime vortex breakup. A dynamical mechanism is proposed whereby increased surface roughness leads to improved stationary waves. Increased surface roughness leads to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence primarily in the Indian Ocean sector (where eddies are strongest climatologically) in September and October. The localization of the eddy momentum flux convergence anomaly in the Indian Ocean sector leads to a zonally asymmetric reduction in zonal wind and, by geostrophy, to a wavenumber-1 stationary wave pattern. This tropospheric stationary wave pattern leads to enhanced upwards wave activity entering the stratosphere. The net effect is an improved Southern Hemisphere vortex: the vortex breaks up earlier in spring (i.e., the spring late-breakup bias is partially ameliorated) yet is no weaker in mid-winter. More than half of the stratospheric biases appear to be related to the surface wind speed biases. As many other chemistry climate models use a similar scheme for their surface layer momentum exchange and have similar biases in the stratosphere, we expect that results from GEOSCCM may be relevant for other climate models.

air-sea interaction↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effect of Gravity Waves from Small Islands in the Southern Ocean on the Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

The effect of small islands in the Southern Ocean on the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is considered with a series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model in which the gravity wave stress generated by these islands is increased to resemble observed values. The enhanced gravity wave drag leads to a 2 K warming of the springtime polar stratosphere, partially ameliorating biases in this region. Resolved wave drag declines in the stratospheric region in which the added orographic gravity waves deposit their momentum, such that changes in gravity waves are partially compensated by changes in resolved waves, though resolved wave drag increases further poleward. The orographic drag from these islands has impacts for surface climate, as biases in tropospheric jet position are also partially ameliorated. These results suggest that these small islands are likely contributing to the missing drag near 60 degrees S in the upper stratosphere evident in many data assimilation products.

chemistry-climate models↗
NASA NTRS2018

Views from the 6 Aircraft Campaigns: ACT-America, HIPPO, CONTRAIL, ATom, ORCAS, and ABoVE

This presentation describes the assimilation of airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The main goal is to construct observationally constrained fields of CO2 starting from the bottom of the atmosphere and extending through the entire vertical column. These fields can then be compared directly to retrievals of column CO2 (XCO2) from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) by using the averaging kernel and a priori profile. This approach does not equire a direct satellite overpass, but rather an overpass of the much broader region impacted by the assimilation, which alleviates some of the jeopardy of coordinating flights with satellite tracks. Furthermore, checking if the story stays the same or if it changes when the unassimilated fields are compared to the satellite soundings allows us to separate model errors from retrieval errors. This work attempts to answer a number of questions including: What are the possible causes of systematic differences between model and satellite XCO2 over the Pacific Ocean? What is the contribution of tratospheric uncertainty to XCO2 errors? What is the impact of errors in boundary layer physics on modeled XCO2?

Weir, B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: North Pacific and North America

The prominence of nonlinearities in the response to El Niño as compared to La Niña, to moderate El Niño events as compared to extreme El Ninño events, and to different flavors of El Niño events, are analyzed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. In the Central North Pacific region where the sea level pressure response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks, nonlinearities are relatively muted. In contrast, changes to the east of this region (i.e. the far-Northeastern Pacific) and to the north of this region (over Alaska) in response to different ENSO phases are more clearly nonlinear, and become statistically robust after more than 15 events are considered. The relative prominence of these nonlinearities is related to the zonal wavenumber of the tropical precipitation response. Associated with these nonlinearities over the far-Northeastern Pacific are nonlinearities in precipitation over Western United States and surface temperature over Northwest North America and Midwestern United States. In all regions at least 15 events of each type are necessary before nonlinearities can be identified as statistically significant at the 95% confidence level due to the presence of internal atmospheric variability. As there have only been a similar number of ENSO events to the total needed for significance since 1920, it is not surprising that it has been difficult to establish statistically significant nonlinearities using observational data.

Nonlinearities↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of August 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Injection Events on Lower Stratospheric Composition

On August 12-13, 2017 large wildfires in the Cariboo region of British Columbia, Canada sparked a series of pyrocumulonimbus events lifting carbonaceous aerosol and other trace gases to the tropopause region (~10-11 km). Over the subsequent days, this plume of trace gas and aerosol species was observed from numerous NASA satellite instruments to rise to over 22 km due to the strong shortwave heating of the carbonaceous aerosol. We will show observations of CO and H2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Aura satellite demonstrating the clear rise and spread of the plume which can be coherently tracked for at least 2 months. Enhancements in HCN, CH3CN, and methanol (CH3OH) are also evident in MLS measurements with the former two having low vertical resolution. We have also detected a significantly lower concentration of O3 and HNO3 in the plume compared to the surrounding environment, which is consistent with a dynamical perturbation from the rapid diabatic rise of the heated plume from the tropopause through the lower stratosphere. In the weeks and months that followed this plume spread over much of the Northern Hemisphere and the aerosol was observed to be slowly removed by transport back into the troposphere. We will compare and contrast the Aug. 2017 event with the other large event in the MLS record, the Feb. 2009 Australian "Black Saturday" event, and use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) replayed to observed meteorology to understand the effect of the British Columbia event on trace gas species. GEOSCCM helps us to separate the relative roles of dynamics and chemistry on lower stratospheric trace gas composition changes, not only in the rising plume but also the impact of its eventual spread over the Northern Hemisphere during fall and winter of 2017-2018.

Oman, Luke D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe

The salience of nonlinearities in the Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. Central Pacific El Niño (CP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 2, while Eastern Pacific El Niño (EP EN) events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1, though these nonlinearities become statistically robust only after more than 45 events are considered. This leads to a difference in the morphology of SSW events preferentially forced by each ENSO flavor. While the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric response is little different between EP and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events, the tropospheric subpolar negative North Atlantic Oscillation response is stronger for CP events. Other nonlinearities are even less salient: there is no indication of any nonlinearities in the wave driving between moderate EP EN and extreme EP EN, nor between EN and La Niña (LN). However in approximately 15% of the integrations within our ensemble, there is no difference in SSW frequency between EN and LN, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for both EN and LN, as has occurred over the past 60 years, can occur by chance. The intra-ensemble variability in LN SSW frequency can be related back to intra-ensemble variability in the tropospheric response to LN.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: Status, Science, Advances

The PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean color, cloud, and aerosol data records to enable continued and advanced insight into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth’s changing climate. The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA’s next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth’s ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, and ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles, food web processes, and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, and improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere. PACE objectives also encompass management of fisheries, large freshwater bodies, and air and water quality and reducing uncertainties in climate and radiative forcing models of the Earth system. PACE observations will provide information on radiative properties of land surfaces and characterization of the vegetation and soils that dominate their reflectance. The primary PACE instrument is a spectrometer that spans the ultraviolet to shortwave infrared, with a ground sample distance of 1-km at nadir. This payload is complemented by two multi-angle polarimeters with spectral ranges that span the visible to near-infrared region. Scheduled for launch in late 2022-to-early 2023, the PACE observatory will enable significant advances in the study of Earth’s biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, clouds, hydrosols, and aerosols in the ocean-atmosphere-land system. Here, we present an overview of the PACE mission, including its developmental history, science objectives, instrument payload, observatory characteristics, and data products.

P Jeremy Werdell↗
NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: an Emerging Era of Global, Hyperspectral Earth System Remote Sensing

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA's next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth's ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, and ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, and improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere. PACE objectives also encompass management of fisheries, large freshwater bodies, and water quality and reducing uncertainties in climate and radiative forcing models of the Earth system. PACE observations will also provide information on radiative properties of land surfaces and characterization of the vegetation and soils that dominate their reflectance. The primary PACE instrument - the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) - is a hyperspectral imaging radiometer that spans the ultraviolet to shortwave infrared, with a ground sample distance of 1-kilometer at nadir. This includes continuous collection of spectra from 340 to 890 nanometers in 5-nanometer steps. The PACE payload is complemented by two multi-angle polarimeters with spectral ranges that span the visible to near-infrared region. Scheduled for launch in late 2022-to-early 2023, the PACE observatory will enable significant advances in the study of Earth's biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, clouds, hydrosols, and aerosols in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present a brief overview of the PACE mission, followed by a detailed discussion of the capabilities and design concept of OCI.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2020

Lower-Stratospheric Tracer Trends and Variability from Reanalyses

Previous studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large-scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the MERRA-2 reanalysis. This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free-running version of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a ten-member ensemble of free-running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free-running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA-2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free-running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long-term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

Wargan, Kris↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Linked to Recent Ozone Decreases in the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere

Previous studies have robustly identified a decrease since 1998 in lower stratospheric (LS) ozone in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). While this ozone decrease is qualitatively explained as resulting from changes in the large‐scale circulation, there is not yet a quantitative mechanistic explanation of these changes. Here we explore the drivers of recent ozone changes using two different configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The first configuration of GEOS includes a full chemistry module and is constrained with meteorological fields from the Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA‐2). This configuration (M2GMI) is used to analyze an idealized tracer that covaries closely with ozone on interannual and decadal timescales, revealing that recent ozone decreases in the NH subtropics are associated with a poleward expansion of upwelling in the NH LS, with reduced (enhanced) downwelling over northern subtropics (midlatitudes). The second configuration of GEOS is a free‐running version of the GEOS Chemistry‐Climate Model (CCM) that is used to perform a ten‐member ensemble of free‐running simulations. Comparisons of the two configurations reveal that, while the free‐running model can produce negative ozone changes in the NH LS, the magnitude of these changes is significantly weaker, relative to both M2GMI and MERRA‐2; moreover, these weaker ozone decreases are consistent with weaker simulated changes in the residual circulation. Finally, we examine the GEOS model results in the broader context of the hindcast simulations performed as part of Phase 1 of the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. We show that the majority of the free‐running simulations considered here also exhibit weaker long‐term residual circulation changes, compared to reanalyses.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Mission: An Emerging Era of Global, Hyperspectral Earth System Remote Sensing

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission represents NASA’s next investment in satellite ocean color and the study of Earth’s ocean-atmosphere system, enabling new insights into oceanographic and atmospheric responses to Earth's changing climate. PACE objectives include extending systematic cloud, aerosol, ocean biological and biogeochemical data records, making essential ocean color measurements to further understand marine carbon cycles and ecosystem responses to a changing climate, as well as improving knowledge of how aerosols influence ocean ecosystems and, conversely, how ocean ecosystems and photochemical processes affect the atmosphere. PACE objectives also encompass management of fisheries, large freshwater bodies, and water quality and reducing uncertainties in climate and radiative forcing models of the Earth system. PACE observations will also provide information on radiative properties of land surfaces and characterization of the vegetation and soils that dominate their reflectance. The primary PACE instrument – the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) – is a hyperspectral imaging radiometer that spans the ultraviolet to shortwave infrared, with a ground sample distance of 1-km at nadir. This includes continuous collection of spectra from 340 nm to 890 nm in 5 nm steps. The PACE payload is complemented by two multi-angle polarimeters with spectral ranges that span the visible to near-infrared region. Scheduled for launch in late 2022-to-early 2023, the PACE observatory will enable significant advances in the study of Earth’s biogeochemistry, carbon cycle, clouds, hydrosols, and aerosols in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present a brief overview of the PACE mission, followed by a discussion of the capabilities and design concept of OCI.

hyperspectral radiometer↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Salience of Nonlinearities in the Boreal Winter Response to ENSO: Arctic Stratosphere and Europe

The Arctic stratospheric response to El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) is evaluated in a 41 member ensemble of the period 1980 to 2009 in the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model. We consider whether the responses to EN and LN are equal in magnitude and opposite in sign, whether the responses to moderate and extreme events are proportion-ate, and if the response depends on whether sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in the Eastern Pacific (EP) or Central Pacific (CP). There is no indication of any nonlinearities between EN and LN, though in ~ 15% of the ensemble members the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) frequencies for EN and LN are similar, suggesting that a similar SSW frequency for EN and LN, as has occurred over the past ~ 60 years, can occur by chance. The response to extreme EN events is not proportionate to the amplitude of the underlying SST anomalies in spring. EP EN events preferentially increase zonal wavenumber 1 and decrease zonal wavenumber 2 as compared to CP EN events, however the zonal-mean Arctic stratospheric and subpolar surface response is generally little different between EP EN and CP EN once one accounts for the relative weakness of CP events. These differences between EP and CP events and between moderate and extreme EN events only emerge if at least 25 events are composited, however, due to the small signal-to-noise ratio, and hence these differences may be of little practical benefit.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) peak in t↗
NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Climate Warming through Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks of SO2 Emissions

Volcanic flood basalt eruptions have been linked to or are contemporaneous with major climate disruptions, ocean anoxic events, and mass extinctions throughout at least the last 400M years of Earth’s history. Previous studies and recent history have shown that volcanically-driven climate cooling can occur through reflection of sunlight by H2SO4 aerosols, while longer-term climate warming can occur via CO2 emissions. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model to simulate a four-year duration volcanic SO2 emission of the scale of the Wapshilla Ridge member of the Columbia River Basalt eruption. Brief cooling from H2SO4 aerosols is outweighed by dynamically and radiatively driven warming of the climate through a three orders of magnitude increase in stratospheric H2O vapor.

Scott D Guzewich↗
NASA NTRS2022

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Component Level Regression Testing in a Hierarchical Architecture

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) is an Earth system model consisting of a large suite of individual model components that can be coupled in a flexible manner to investigate a variety of Earth science issues. Specific GEOS model configurations are composed as a hierarchical collection of components based on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). Regression testing of GEOS is currently limited to (1) full system tests that are poor at isolating specific defects and (2) a suite of unit tests which have very limited coverage. As part of our approach to improve upon the current testing situation, we have prototyped the capability to perform regression tests on individual GEOS components by leveraging and extending existing checkpoint/restart capabilities. In our implementation, each ESMF component has 3 states: Import (what it needs to run), Export (which it needs to provide to other components), and Internal (the component state proper). By capturing, Import, Export and Internal states for a given component during a ull run of GEOS, a generic driver can then rerun the component offline and compare expected exports with those that have been saved. The hierarchical structure of GEOS introduces an interesting wrinkle when trying to test components that in turn drive interacting child components. To fully isolate a parent component, we use the approach of software mocks, in which the exports of children are also saved during the initial capture run of GEOS. Then when testing the parent component, the children components are replaced by a generic mock component that produces exports from the previously saved data and ensures that that all interdependencies among children components are satisfied.

Thomas Clune↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of SMAP Observations Over Land Improves the Simulation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Idai

This work is focused on the role of soil moisture in the prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching land and after landfall. Soil moisture conditions can impact the circulation and structure of an existing tropical cyclone (TC) when part or all of the circulation is over land. For example, dry land surface conditions may lead to faster dissipation of a TC over land (often associated with changes in precipitation structure), whereas very wet conditions may help sustain or in rare cases re-intensify a TC. Moreover, the presence of strong soil moisture gradients may affect the symmetry and development of the TC circulation leading to changes in its over-land track. While the link between soil moisture conditions and TC evolution in proximity to land is relatively well understood in theory, applications of these findings in the context of numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been limited. Here we present a case study that explores the potential of improving TC predictions through an improved soil moisture initialization in an NWP framework. Specifically, we examine the impact of assimilating observations from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global weather model on the prediction of South-West Indian Ocean TC Idai (2019). SMAP provides accurate L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperatures (Tb) observations that are sensitive to soil moisture globally and at high revisit times of 2-3 days. It has previously been shown that the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations significantly improves modeled land surface states. Thus, it is expected that SMAP can be used to constrain land surface initial conditions and potentially benefit TC forecasts. Here we present two sets of retrospective forecasts of TC Idai that are compared in an Observing System Experiment framework at ¼ degree resolution: (i) forecasts initialized from an analysis that is comparable to the GEOS operational analysis (without SMAP Tb assimilation) and (ii) forecasts initialized from an analysis that additionally assimilates SMAP brightness temperature observations over land using a weakly-coupled land analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP meaningfully improves the representation of TC Idai’s structure as well as the prediction of its intensity and track. The analyzed TC size, as measured by the wind speed radius, is improved by up to 18% in the analysis with SMAP assimilation relative to the control run. The forecast intensity error, measured against the observed intensity, is reduced by up to 23%. At the 1/4-degree resolution used here, GEOS unavoidably under-estimates TC intensity and over-estimates TC size. The SMAP assimilation therefore corrects the model in the right direction, leading to a storm that is more energetic and more compact. Furthermore, we find that the along-track forecast error is reduced by up to 34%, indicating a more accurate propagation speed, which is consistent with the fact that TC speed over land is strongly affected by surface processes. The impact of SMAP assimilation on the forecast cross-track error is neutral. Across the TC forecast skill metrics used here, the improvements from SMAP DA are largest at lead times of 36 to 72 hours, suggesting that the predictability of forecasts at shorter lead times may be dominated by short-term convective processes, while the land and its longer memory gains in importance as a source of predictability on a 2-3 day timescale. We further investigated the underlying mechanisms leading to the skill improvements from SMAP data assimilation by isolating the land areas that directly influence TC Idai using a back trajectory analysis. We find that the assimilation of SMAP leads to wetter soil moisture conditions that cause an increased latent heat flux, which ultimately results in TC analyzed representation that has higher column-integrated total moisture content and total energy compared to the analysis in the control run without SMAP assimilation. Overall, the results highlight that the assimilation of SMAP observations into a global numerical weather prediction model can lead to pronounced improvements of TC predictions. This is a crucial step towards a better mitigation of the socio-economic impact of landfalling TCs and thus safeguarding human lives. Finally, our study presents an event-based approach that assesses the impact of land data assimilation for a particular weather event rather than by globally averaging differences in skill. We argue that global skill assessments – while necessary – can mute the impact of land data assimilation, because the land’s influence on the atmosphere is constrained to certain locations and certain times. Instead, the event-based approach better highlights the true potential of land data assimilation in the context of NWP, especially for extreme events when accurate predictions are critical.

Jana Kolassa↗