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DOE OSTI2026

Conditional distribution estimation of building characteristics with diffusion models for urban energy modeling

Understanding current energy consumption behavior in communities is critical for informing future energy use decisions and enabling efficient energy management. Urban energy models, which are used to simulate these energy use patterns, require large datasets with detailed building characteristics for accurate outcomes. However, such detailed characteristics at the individual building level are often unknown and costly to acquire, or unavailable. Through this work, we propose using a generative modeling approach to generate realistic building attributes to fill in the data gaps and finally provide complete characteristics as inputs to energy models. Our model learns complex, building-level patterns from training on a large-scale residential building stock model containing 2.2 million buildings. We employ a tabular diffusion-based framework that is designed to handle heterogeneous (discrete and continuous) features in tabular building data, such as occupancy, floor area, heating, cooling, and other equipment details. We develop a capability for conditional diffusion, enabling the imputation of missing building characteristics conditioned on known attributes. We conduct a comprehensive validation of our conditional diffusion model, firstly by comparing the generated conditional distributions against the underlying data distribution, and secondly, by performing a case study for a Baltimore residential region, showing the practical utility of our approach. Our work is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of generative modeling to accelerate building energy modeling workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

A unified non-equilibrium phase change model for injection flow modeling

The homogenous relaxation model (HRM) is one of the most widely used models to describe the liquid- gas phase transition. However, in its original formulation, it is unable to handle multispecies vapor-liquid equilibrium (VLE), which limits its applicability to single-component fluids. In this work, a unified non-equilibrium phase change model that considers the VLE of multicomponent mixtures is proposed building upon the HRM's structure. A time factor is introduced to mimic the effect of different phase change timescales due to different mechanisms, e.g., cavitation, flash-boiling, and evaporation. Here to assess the model's performance, computational fluid dynamics simulations of the internal and near-nozzle injection flow of the Engine Combustion Network's Spray G injector were performed using the nine-component PACE-20 fuel with both the unified model and the original HRM. The predicted fuel density in the near-nozzle region matched well with X-ray tomography measurements. The simulation results indicated that, whereas the HRM failed to capture the vaporization due to convective mixing between the fuel and ambient gas, the unified model performed well in predicting the mixing-driven vaporization and the corresponding evaporative cooling. Further comparisons using the nine-component fuel formula and a single-component fuel surrogate demonstrated the unified model's ability to predict preferential vaporization, which affects the predictions of local mixture composition and rate of vaporization. Finally, it is shown that the unified model is capable of representing multiple phase change mechanisms, and the relaxation time factor plays an important role in determining the degree of phase change due to the different mechanisms.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Turbulence Models for Large-Scale Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flows

We present high-fidelity large-eddy-simulation (LES) modeling approaches for the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows. Wind energy is a prime example of an application driven by ABL. Generation of electrical energy from farms of wind turbines at night in the stable ABL is a particularly interesting situation. In this report, we consider the well-known GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS) stably stratified benchmark LES case. We use a high-order spectral element code Nek5000/RS, which is supported under the DOE's Exascale Computing Project (ECP) Center for Efficient Exascale Discretizations (CEED) project, targeting application simulations on various acceleration-device based exascale computing platforms. In our earlier ANL report, we demonstrated our newly developed subgrid-scale (SGS) models based on high-pass filter (HPF), mean-field eddy viscosity (MFEV), and Smagorinsky (SMG) with no-slip and traction boundary conditions, provided with low-order statistics, convergence and turbulent structure analysis. In this report, we extend the range of our SGS modeling approaches in the context of the mean-field eddy viscosity (MFEV), to include the solution of an SGS turbulent kinetic energy equation (TKE). We demonstrate the model fidelity of Nek5000/RS in comparison to that of AMR-Wind, a block-structured second-order finite-volume code with adaptive-mesh-refinement capabilities, with which we studied scaling performance for both codes in comparison on DOE's leadership computing platforms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling

Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.

Climate models↗

NASA NTRS2016

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗

NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Quiet Solar Luminosity Variability from TSI Satellite Measurements and Proxy Models during 1980-2018

A continuous record of direct total solar irradiance (TSI) observations began with a series of satellite experiments in 1978. This record requires comparisons of overlapping satellite observations with adequate relative precisions to provide useful long term TSI trend information. Herein we briefly review the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor physikalisch-meteorologisches observatorium davos (ACRIM-PMOD) TSI composite controversy regarding how the total solar irradiance (TSI) has evolved since 1978 and about whether TSI significantly increased or slightly decreased from 1980 to 2000. The main question is whether TSI increased or decreased during the so-called ACRIM-gap period from 1989 to 1992. There is significant discrepancy between TSI proxy models and observations before and after the gap, which requires a careful revisit of the data analysis and modeling performed during the ACRIM-gap period. In this study, we use three recently proposed TSI proxy models that do not present any TSI increase during the ACRIM-gap, and show that they agree with the TSI data only from 1996 to 2016. However, these same models significantly diverge from the observations from 1981 and 1996. Thus, the scaling errors must be different between the two periods, which suggests errors in these models. By adjusting the TSI proxy models to agree with the data patterns before and after the ACRIM-gap, we found that these models miss a slowly varying TSI component. The adjusted models suggest that the quiet solar luminosity increased from the 1986 to the 1996 TSI minimum by about 0.45 W/m2 reaching a peak near 2000 and decreased by about 0.15 W/m2 from the 1996 to the 2008 TSI cycle minimum. This pattern is found to be compatible with the ACRIM TSI composite and confirms the ACRIM TSI increasing trend from 1980 to 2000, followed by a long-term decreasing trend since.

total solar irradiance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predictive Modeling of Carbon Ablators Using Micro and Macro-Scale Modeling

Efforts to build a Predictive Material Modeling (PMM) framework from the micro-scale to the macro-scale are presented in this abstract. To reduce the need for extensive testing, accelerate the design cycle process, and reduce uncertainty margins applied to final designs, NASA is developing simulation and modeling tools that enable characterization of material properties and response to high-enthalpy environments. The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) code has been developed for computing macroscale (volume averaged) properties of porous materials using microscale images from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Microscale modeling requires a realistic representation of a material microstructure; these are obtained either synthetically during the design of the material or through X-ray micro-CT. Volume averaged properties are then used to inform macroscale material response models, such as those implemented in the Porous-material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) software, also actively developed by NASA. The computational model in PATO is a generic heat and mass transfer model for porous reactive materials containing several solid phases and a single gas phase. The detailed chemical interactions occurring between the solid phases and the gas phase are modeled at the pore scale assuming local thermal equilibrium. These tools were developed to efficiently interface with other pre-existing codes such as SPARTA (direct simulation Monte Carlo), DPLR (hypersonic CFD), NEQAIR (radiative transport) and DAKOTA (uncertainty quantification and optimization). Detailed flight data (Mars Science Laboratory [MSL] Entry Descent and Landing Instrument [MEDLI]) is critical for validating these computational tools for NASA applications. Examples of modeling ablative material response using these codes will be presented including 3D simulations of the full-scale heatshield of the MSL capsule. The simulations demonstrate the ability of the modern material response code, PATO, to handle the material response of geometrically complex and large domains, through the use of massively parallel computations.

Thermal Protection Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Numerical and Modeling Errors of RANS based Transition Models for Low-Reynolds Numbers 2-D Flows

In this paper we report the outcome of selected workshops organized as part of the NATO Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)-313 activity Incompressible Laminar-to-Turbulent Flow Transition Study that focused on assessing the numerical and modeling accuracy of the γ−Reθ and γ transition models coupled to the k−ω Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation eddy-viscosity model. Three different test cases involving nominally 2D flow configurations were selected: flow over a flat plate with two different levels of turbulence intensity at the inlet; flow around the Eppler 387 foil at a Reynolds number of 3×10^5 and angles of attack of 1 deg. and 7 deg. flow around the NACA 0015 foil at a Reynolds number of 1.8×10^5 and angles of attack of 5 deg. and10 deg. The flat plate flow conditions correspond to natural and by-pass transition, whereas the other two test cases include laminar separation bubbles that lead to separation-induced transition. For each test case, the selected quantities of interest include both integral and local flow quantities. Geometrically similar grids with a wide range of grid refinement ratios were generated for each of the test cases to allow the estimation of numerical uncertainties for all quantities of interest selected for this study. Several RANS flow solvers were used, employing common grids with the same boundary conditions and mathematical models. Therefore, it is possible to analyze the consistency of the results, i.e., to check if the intervals defined by the different numerical solutions with their respective uncertainties overlap with each other. Modeling errors can also be addressed for the selected flow quantities that have experimental data available. However, the experimental information available in these cases is not sufficient to guarantee that experiments and simulations are performed with the same settings. Nonetheless, the available experimental data is sufficient to guarantee that modeling errors are significantly reduced with the use of the transition models when compared to simulations performed using only the k−ω SST model.

CFD Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.

enhanced geothermal systems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automatic building energy model development and debugging using large language models agentic workflow

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a complex process that demands significant time and expertise, limiting its broader application in building design and operations. While Large Language Models (LLMs) agentic workflow have facilitated complex engineering processes, their application in BEM has not been specifically explored. This paper investigates the feasibility of automating BEM using LLM agentic workflow. Here, we developed a generic LLM-planning-based workflow that takes a building description as input and generates an error-free EnergyPlus building energy model. Our robust workflow includes four core agents: 1) Building Description Pre-Processing, 2) IDF Object Information Extraction, 3) Single IDF Object Generator Suite, and 4) IDF Debugging Agent. These agents divide the complex tasks into manageable sub-steps, enabling LLMs to generate accurate and reliable results at each stage. The case study demonstrates the successful translation of a building description into an error-free EnergyPlus model for the iUnit modular building at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The effectiveness of our workflow surpasses: 1) naive prompt engineering, 2) other LLM-based workflows, and 3) manual modeling, in terms of accuracy, reliability, and time efficiency. The paper concludes with a discussion on the interplay between foundational models and LLM agent planning design, advocating for the use of fine-tuned, specialized models to advance this field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine‐learning‐based construction of barrier functions and models for safe model predictive control

Abstract In this paper, we propose a control Lyapunov‐barrier function‐based model predictive control method utilizing a feed‐forward neural network specified control barrier function (CBF) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) predictive model to stabilize nonlinear processes with input constraints, and to guarantee that safety requirements are met for all times. The nonlinear system is first modeled using RNN techniques, and a CBF is characterized by constructing a feed‐forward neural network (FNN) model with unique structures and properties. The FNN model for the CBF is trained based on data samples collected from safe and unsafe operating regions, and the resulting FNN model is verified to demonstrate that the safety properties of the CBF are satisfied. Given sufficiently small bounded modeling errors for both the FNN and the RNN models, the proposed control system is able to guarantee closed‐loop stability while preventing the closed‐loop states from entering unsafe regions in state‐space under sample‐and‐hold control action implementation. We provide the theoretical analysis for bounded unsafe sets in state‐space, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy using a nonlinear chemical process example with a bounded unsafe region.

Chen, Scarlett↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling inter‐reader variability in clinical target volume delineation for soft tissue sarcomas using diffusion model

Abstract Background Accurate delineation of the clinical target volume (CTV) is essential in the radiotherapy treatment of soft tissue sarcomas. However, this process is subject to inter‐reader variability due to the need for clinical assessment of risk and extent of potential microscopic spread. This can lead to inconsistencies in treatment planning, potentially impacting treatment outcomes. Most existing automatic CTV delineation methods do not account for this variability and can only generate a single CTV for each case. Purpose This study aims to develop a deep learning‐based technique to generate multiple CTV contours for each case, simulating the inter‐reader variability in the clinical practice. Methods We employed a publicly available dataset consisting of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG‐PET), x‐ray computed tomography (CT), and pre‐contrast T1‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 51 patients with soft tissue sarcoma, along with an independent validation set containing five additional patients. An experienced reader drew a contour of the gross tumor volume (GTV) for each patient based on multi‐modality images. Subsequently, two additional readers, together with the first one, were responsible for contouring three CTVs in total based on the GTV. We developed a diffusion model‐based deep learning method that is capable of generating arbitrary number of different and plausible CTVs to mimic the inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation. The proposed model incorporates a separate encoder to extract features from the GTV masks, leveraging the critical role of GTV information in accurate CTV delineation. Results The proposed diffusion model demonstrated superior performance with the highest Dice Index (0.902 compared to values below 0.881 for state‐of‐the‐art models) and the best generalized energy distance (GED) (0.209 compared to values exceeding 0.221 for state‐of‐the‐art models). It also achieved the second‐highest recall and precision metrics among the compared ambiguous image segmentation models. Results from both datasets exhibited consistent trends, reinforcing the reliability of our findings. Additionally, ablation studies exploring different model structures and input configurations highlighted the significance of incorporating prior GTV information for accurate CTV delineation. Conclusions The proposed diffusion model successfully generates multiple plausible CTV contours for soft tissue sarcomas, effectively capturing inter‐reader variability in CTV delineation.

Dong, Yafei [Yale Biomedical Imaging Institute Yal↗

DOE OSTI2021

Teleconnections of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in a multi–model ensemble of QBO–resolving models

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to in-creased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. Furthermore, the models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific sector subtropical jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting wind farm operations with machine learning and the P2D‐RANS model: A case study for an AWAKEN site

Abstract The power performance and the wind velocity field of an onshore wind farm are predicted with machine learning models and the pseudo‐2D RANS model, then assessed against SCADA data. The wind farm under investigation is one of the sites involved with the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). The performed simulations enable predictions of the power capture at the farm and turbine levels while providing insights into the effects on power capture associated with wake interactions that operating upstream turbines induce, as well as the variability caused by atmospheric stability. The machine learning models show improved accuracy compared to the pseudo‐2D RANS model in the predictions of turbine power capture and farm power capture with roughly half the normalized error. The machine learning models also entail lower computational costs upon training. Further, the machine learning models provide predictions of the wind turbulence intensity at the turbine level for different wind and atmospheric conditions with very good accuracy, which is difficult to achieve through RANS modeling. Additionally, farm‐to‐farm interactions are noted, with adverse impacts on power predictions from both models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗