Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model selection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Factors That Influence Variability in Stress-Drop Measurements Using Spectral Decomposition and Spectral-Ratio Methods for the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Stress drop is a fundamental parameter related to earthquake source physics, but is hard to measure accurately. To better understand how different factors influence stress-drop measurements, we compare two different methods using the Ridgecrest stress-drop validation data set: spectral decomposition (SD) and spectral ratio (SR), each with different processing options. Here, we also examine the influence of spectral complexity on source parameter measurement. Applying the SD method, we find that frequency bandwidth and time-window length could influence spectral magnitude calibration, while depth-dependent attenuation is important to correctly map stress-drop variations. For the SR method, we find that the selected source model has limited influence on the measurements; however, the Boatwright model tends to produce smaller standard deviation and larger magnitude dependence than the Brune model. Variance reduction threshold, frequency bandwidth, and time-window length, if chosen within an appropriate parameter range, have limited influence on source parameter measurement. For both methods, wave type, attenuation correction, and spectral complexity strongly influence the result. The scale factor that quantifies the magnitude dependence of stress drop show large variations with different processing options, and earthquakes with complex source spectra deviating from the Brune-type source models tend to have larger scale factor than earthquakes without complexity. Based on these detailed comparisons, we make a few specific suggestions for data processing workflows that could help future studies of source parameters and interpretations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust highly durable solid oxide fuel cell cathodes – Improved materials compatibility & self-regulating surface chemistry

Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are electrochemical conversion devices that directly transform hydrogen or hydrocarbon fuels to electricity, with energy efficiencies as high as 90%, coupled with reduced emissions. Several factors, however, remain to be addressed when considering scale-up of SOFC technology, including the need to overcome decreased performance due to sluggish rates of the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) at the cathode under reduced temperatures and susceptibility to degradation in performance from surface poisoning e.g. from chromia, while limiting the use of critical raw materials (lanthanides and transition metals) present in high performing mixed ionic electronic conducting electrodes like (La,Sr)CoO 3 (LSC). In this project we explored the key descriptors for determining ORR activity in SOFC electrodes and tried to recover performance degradation by applying them to SOFC electrodes. In order to do this, we first selected a model mixed ionic electronic conducting (MIEC) oxide, Pr-doped CeO 2 (Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ , PCO), which is a chemically stable fluorite and free of inherent poison sources (e.g. Sr segregation in LSC) that potentially react with external impurities such as Cr-species vaporized from the interconnect. The three approaches originally planned in this project are as follows: 1) evaluation of scavenger exsolution characteristics, 2) study of scavengers gettering efficacy following Cr and Si poisoning and 3) integration of new compositions into porous electrodes. Among them, exceptional progress has been made in 2) and 3), especially understanding the role of surface infiltrants in impacting electrode performance and degradation of PCO materials. We found that the Smith acidity scale for binary oxides serves as a powerful descriptor for tuning and predicting the oxygen exchange kinetics on MIEC PCO surfaces. As a result, with infiltration with binary oxides, ranging from strongly basic (Li 2 O) to strongly acidic (SiO 2 ) onto the surface of porous PCO, it was possible to systematically vary the chemical surface exchange coefficient (k chem ) by 6 orders of magnitude! L i2 O increased k chem by nearly 1,000 times over that of pristine PCO, while SiO 2 decreased k chem by nearly the same factor. Strikingly, although the pre-exponential of k chem scales linearly with the acidity of the infiltrated binary oxide, there is nearly no change in the activation energy. With this insight, we attributed the origin of these dramatic changes in k chem values to the systematic increase and decrease in the surface electron density induced by infiltrated binary oxides. More interestingly, although both Cr 2 O 3 and SiO 2 were determined to be acidic by Smith, suggesting that this feature could likely be the primary reason that these compounds serve to poison the ORR on SOFC cathodes, the effect of poisoning could be subsequently tuned by adding multiple infiltrants and controlling their relative surface acidities. We also systematically examined the effect of serial infiltration of basic and acidic oxides. It turned out that serial infiltration of Li not only recovers approximately 20-fold degraded k chem of PCO by acidic Cr 2 O 3 but its k chem is enhanced even beyond that of the non-infiltrated PCO by more than three orders of magnitude. This was further verified with a screen-printing PCO symmetric cell in terms of the electrode performance (area-specific resistance, ASR) related to approach 3). These observations point to acidity as a key descriptor not only in tuning and predicting the ORR activity of SOFC cathodes that largely determines the overall performance of SOFC, but in mitigating and reactivating poisoned electrode performance. This work provides novel guidelines for making the electrode performance much more active and robust in SOFCs, which can further be applied to all applications requiring oxygen exchange reaction, such as electrolyzers, permeation membranes and gas sensors.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Forward-Looking Dataset of EV Managed Charging Resource and Costs

This presentation summarizes a high-resolution, forward-looking dataset of EV adoption, EV charging, and managed charging resource. Vehicle-level data are grounded in current adoption and charging patterns, and ~200,000 real-world vehicle-weeks of travel data covering all on-road segments (i.e., light-duty, transit and school buses, local, regional and long-haul medium- and heavy-duty). The data, which include multiple charging profiles per vehicle to bound flexibility, are then processed and aggregated to describe baseline charging and charge management resource by county, hour, year, scenario, and vehicle type. Coupled with one of four scenarios of how EV managed charging costs might evolve over time, the dataset enables a power sector capacity expansion model to select cost-optimal quantities of EV managed charging and supply-side resources to reliably satisfy demand. Five integration strategies: Baseline, Daytime and Flat (passive), Flex (active), and Stress (anti-strategy), illustrate how baseline charging and flexibility potential changes with EVSE build-out and charging preferences.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Glass Property-Composition Models Update for use in Direct Feed High-Level Waste Flowsheet Development: EWG3.0

A set of preliminary glass property models and constraints were developed and augmented by models from literature for use in design of Direct Feed High-Level Waste glasses for flowsheet evaluation, testing, and design of the High-Level Waste Facility at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. These models and constraints are meant to be used as a placeholder while glass property-composition data gaps are filled and final plant operating models are developed. This report describes the motivation and intended use of the models, the compilation of data, model fitting and selection, and methods to apply the models and constraints in glass design, and offers example calculations demonstrating their intended use.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Social Media, Syndromic Surveillance, and Microbiologic Acute Respiratory Infection Data: Observational Study

Internet data can be used to improve infectious disease models. However, the representativeness and individual-level validity of internet-derived measures are largely unexplored as this requires ground truth data for study. This study sought to identify relationships between Web-based behaviors and/or conversation topics and health status using a ground truth, survey-based dataset. This study leveraged a unique dataset of self-reported surveys, microbiological laboratory tests, and social media data from the same individuals toward understanding the validity of individual-level constructs pertaining to influenza-like illness in social media data. Logistic regression models were used to identify illness in Twitter posts using user posting behaviors and topic model features extracted from users’ tweets. Of 396 original study participants, only 81 met the inclusion criteria for this study. Of these participants’ tweets, we identified only two instances that were related to health and occurred within 2 weeks (before or after) of a survey indicating symptoms. It was not possible to predict when participants reported symptoms using features derived from topic models (area under the curve [AUC]=0.51; P=.38), though it was possible using behavior features, albeit with a very small effect size (AUC=0.53; P≤.001). Individual symptoms were also generally not predictable either. The study sample and a random sample from Twitter are predictably different on held-out data (AUC=0.67; P≤.001), meaning that the content posted by people who participated in this study was predictably different from that posted by random Twitter users. Individuals in the random sample and the GoViral sample used Twitter with similar frequencies (similar @ mentions, number of tweets, and number of retweets; AUC=0.50; P=.19). To our knowledge, this is the first instance of an attempt to use a ground truth dataset to validate infectious disease observations in social media data. The lack of signal, the lack of predictability among behaviors or topics, and the demonstrated volunteer bias in the study population are important findings for the large and growing body of disease surveillance using internet-sourced data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of Algorithms for Using Particle Morphology in Pre-Detonation Nuclear Forensics

A major goal in pre-detonation nuclear forensics is to infer the processing conditions and/or facility type that produced radiological material. This review paper focuses on analyses of particle size, shape, texture (“morphology”) signatures that could provide information on the provenance of interdicted materials. For example, uranium ore concentrates (UOC or yellowcake) include ammonium diuranate (ADU), ammonium uranyl carbonate (AUC), sodium diuranate (SDU), magnesium diuranate (MDU), and others, each prepared using different salts to precipitate U from solution. Once precipitated, UOCs are often dried and calcined to remove adsorbed water. The products can be allowed to react further, forming uranium oxides UO3, U3O8, or UO2 powders, whose surface morphology can be indicative of precipitation and/or calcination conditions used in their production. This review paper describes statistical issues and approaches in using quantitative analyses of measurements such as particle size and shape to infer production conditions. Statistical topics include multivariate t tests (Hotelling’s T 2 ), design of experiments, and several machine learning (ML) options including decision trees, learning vector quantization neural networks, mixture discriminant analysis, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC is emphasized as an attractive option to include the effects of model uncertainty in the selected and fitted forward model used for inferring processing conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soot Formation and Ignition Characteristics of Ethanol/Gasoline Blends in a Rapid Compression Machine

With the ever-increasing demand for sustainable energy, alcohol fuels have garnered interest for use in heavy duty engines. The significant infrastructure for ethanol production and blending of ethanol with gasoline make these fuels/fuel blends desirable candidates. However, development of heavy duty engine technology that is capable of burning alcohol fuels while retaining the advantages of traditional diesel combustion requires an improved understanding of the soot formation for these fuels under conditions relevant to mixing-controlled combustion. This work uses an extinction diagnostic to study the sooting tendency of ethanol and gasoline/ethanol blends ranging from E10 to E98 during ignition in a homogeneous environment. Experiments were conducted in a rapid compression machine (RCM) for compressed conditions of 20 ± 1 bar and an approximately constant temperature (± 10K) which was unique for each fuel. For a given soot volume fraction, a linear relationship was observed between ethanol content and the equivalence ratio in which that soot volume fraction was formed. Accounting for the oxygenated nature of ethanol, E85 and E98 fuels produced similar amounts of soot at a given Φ ox, , suggesting other factors outside of fuel oxygen content, such as fuel morphology, impact soot formation. Ignition delay data is reported for compressed pressures of 20 ± 1 bar and compressed temperatures ranging from 633 – 670 K for E10 and 771 – 789 K for E98. Varying pressures for E10 and E98 at conditions producing similar soot volume fractions demonstrated a linear dependence of soot formation on pressure, regardless of if the pressure considered was at top dead center or peak combustion pressure. Furthermore, the data gleaned from this work will be used to select soot models and chemical kinetic mechanisms for RCM simulations to ultimately model heavy duty engine technology with the studied fuels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deploying a Model Predictive Traffic Signal Control Algorithm - A Field Deployment Experiment Case Study: Preprint

This paper presents a field deployment experiment of a real-time traffic signal control algorithm. We implemented the Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm based on Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model. We selected the deployment locations and times based on an energy saving potential concept. We developed a set of experiment systems to enable the deployment including sensing, processing, and actuating components. We tested the systems rigorously before the experiment days. We reported the key procedures on the experiment days including the steps took, real-time control procedure, and the monitoring of the experiment. We evaluated the impact of the deployment with the changes in delay and energy consumption.

deployment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged with Solar Thermal Technology Using Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs and Carnot-Battery Technique Using Shallow Reservoirs: Preprint

Geological thermal energy storage (GeoTES) utilizes the underground reservoirs to storage and dispatch energy per given demand schedule over a time scale up to seasons of a year. The energy input can be of various sources/forms; in this paper, we investigate 1) the GeoTES technology with solar thermal hybridization and using depleted oil/gas reservoirs; 2) the GeoTES technology with heat pumps charged by excess renewable electricity and using low-temperature shallow reservoirs. For each GeoTES technology, we carry out the suitability analysis of candidate reservoirs, develop initial techno-economic models, and validate the model with selected case study. The paper provides an overview of our technical progress on the topics of concern and aims to promote a wider acceptance of the GeoTES technologies in the future energy market.

Carnot battery↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reinforcement learning for online adaptation of model predictive controllers: Application to a selective catalytic reduction unit

Here we present a novel application of reinforcement learning (RL) for online dynamic tuning of model predictive controllers (MPC). Applying a state-action-reward-state-action (SARSA) algorithm for temporal difference learning with a control-specific reward function improves the error tracking performance of a standard MPC formulation. The proposed RL approach is also readily adaptable to other MPCs, or entirely different control approaches. Practical details for the implementation of the RL-MPC algorithm are also presented. The proposed algorithm is applied to a case study of controlling nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions in an industrial selective catalytic reduction (SCR) unit, a control problem characterized by significant nonlinearity and time delay. Along with an RL-MPC formulation for NOx control, another MPC is proposed to mitigate ammonia slip and decrease ammonia consumption in the SCR. Results showing the efficacy of the RL-MPC for NO x control through learning and implementation on the nonlinear SCR dynamic model are presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics. We apply the method to improve the prediction of red tide along the West Florida Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, which affects coastal water quality and has substantial environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the State of Florida. Red tide is a common name for harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, which result from large concentrations of aquatic microorganisms, such as dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, a toxic single celled protist. We present ensemble method for improving red tide prediction using the high resolution ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and reanalysis data. The study results highlight the importance of prescreening-based subset selection with decision relevant metrics in identifying non-representative models, understanding their impact on ensemble prediction, and improving the ensemble prediction. These findings are pertinent to other regional environmental management applications and climate services. Additionally, our analysis follows the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship such that data and analysis tools are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. As such, the interactive Colab notebooks developed for data analysis are annotated in the paper. This allows for efficient and transparent testing of the results’ sensitivity to different modeling assumptions. Moreover, this research serves as a starting point to build upon for red tide management, using the publicly available CMIP, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and reanalysis data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗