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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Composite Loads Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components: Probabilistic Load Model Development

This effort is in support of the development of the expert system of computer codes to predict the loads on select structural components of a space propulsion engine. The development will be based primarily on the space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data base. Because of random variations of the many different sources of the loadings on the selected structural components and transients, a probabilistic approach to the problems was adopted. The goal of this task is to characterize all of the individual sources of loads at critical structural locations, such as the turbine blades, the transfer ducts, and liquid oxygen posts, using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods with varying levels of sophistication. The second phase of this work is the development of a composite load model based on a probabilistic synthesis of the individual load model previously developed. This model will be based on the stochastic combination of the load variables and not on the physical process for the combination of the individual loads to the composite load seen by the selected structural components.

Kurth, R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

route advisories↗
NASA NTRS2017

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper.

operational acceptability↗
NASA NTRS2019

Image Processing Methods for Coronal Hole Segmentation, Matching, and Map Classification

The paper presents the results from a multi-year effort to develop and validate image processing methods forselecting the best physical models based on solar image observations. The approach consists of selecting the physical models based on their agreement with coronal holes extracted from the images. Ultimately, the goal is to use physical models to predict geomagnetic storms. We decompose the problem into three subproblems: (i) coronal hole segmentation based on physical constraints, (ii) matching clusters of coronal holes between different maps, and (iii) physical map classification. For segmenting coronal holes, we develop a multi-modal method that uses segmentation maps from three different methods to initialize a level-set method that evolves the initial coronal hole segmentation to the magnetic boundary. Then, we introducea new method based on Linear Programming for matchingclusters of coronal holes. The final matching is then performedusing Random Forests. The methods were carefully validatedusing consensus maps derived from multiple readers, manualclustering, manual map classification, and method validation for50 maps. The proposed multi-modal segmentation method significantly outperformed SegNet, U-net, Henney-Harvey, and FCNby providing accurate boundary detection. Overall, the methodgave a 95.5% map classification accuracy.

Jatla, Venkatesh↗
NASA NTRS1980

A pilot modeling technique for handling-qualities research

A brief survey of the more dominant analysis techniques used in closed-loop handling-qualities research is presented. These techniques are shown to rely on so-called classical and modern analytical models of the human pilot which have their foundation in the analysis and design principles of feedback control. The optimal control model of the human pilot is discussed in some detail and a novel approach to the a priori selection of pertinent model parameters is discussed. Frequency domain and tracking performance data from 10 pilot-in-the-loop simulation experiments involving 3 different tasks are used to demonstrate the parameter selection technique. Finally, the utility of this modeling approach in handling-qualities research is discussed.

Hess, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Factors Influencing the Selection of the Systems Integration Organizational Model Type for Planning and Implementing Government High-Technology Programs

While there has been extensive research in defining project organizational structures for traditional projects, little research exists to support high technology government project s organizational structure definition. High-Technology Government projects differ from traditional projects in that they are non-profit, span across Government-Industry organizations, typically require significant integration effort, and are strongly susceptible to a volatile external environment. Systems Integration implementation has been identified as a major contributor to both project success and failure. The literature research bridges program management organizational planning, systems integration, organizational theory, and independent project reports, in order to assess Systems Integration (SI) organizational structure selection for improving the high-technology government project s probability of success. This paper will describe the methodology used to 1) Identify and assess SI organizational structures and their success rate, and 2) Identify key factors to be used in the selection of these SI organizational structures during the acquisition strategy process.

Thomas, Leann↗
NASA NTRS2014

Electrostatic Levitation for Studies of Additive Manufactured Materials

The electrostatic levitation (ESL) laboratory at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is a unique facility for investigators studying high temperature materials. The laboratory boasts two levitators in which samples can be levitated, heated, melted, undercooled, and resolidified. Electrostatic levitation minimizes gravitational effects and allows materials to be studied without contact with a container or instrumentation. The lab also has a high temperature emissivity measurement system, which provides normal spectral and normal total emissivity measurements at use temperature. The ESL lab has been instrumental in many pioneering materials investigations of thermophysical properties, e.g., creep measurements, solidification, triggered nucleation, and emissivity at high temperatures. Research in the ESL lab has already led to the development of advanced high temperature materials for aerospace applications, coatings for rocket nozzles, improved medical and industrial optics, metallic glasses, ablatives for reentry vehicles, and materials with memory. Modeling of additive manufacturing materials processing is necessary for the study of their resulting materials properties. In addition, the modeling of the selective laser melting processes and its materials property predictions are also underway. Unfortunately, there is very little data for the properties of these materials, especially of the materials in the liquid state. Some method to measure thermophysical properties of additive manufacturing materials is necessary. The ESL lab is ideal for these studies. The lab can provide surface tension and viscosity of molten materials, density measurements, emissivity measurements, and even creep strength measurements. The ESL lab can also determine melting temperature, surface temperatures, and phase transition temperatures of additive manufactured materials. This presentation will provide background on the ESL lab and its capabilities, provide an approach to using the ESL in supporting the development and modeling of the selective laser melting process for metals, and provide an overview of the results to date.

SanSoucie, Michael P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Implementation of a two-equation k-omega turbulence model in NPARC

The implementation of a two-equation k-omega turbulence model into the NPARC flow solver is described. Motivation for the selection of this model is given, major code modifications are outlined, new imputs to the code are described, and results are presented for several validation cases: an incompressible flow over a smooth flat plate, a subsonic diffuser flow, and a shock-induced separated flow. Comparison of results with the k-epsilon model indicate that the k-omega model predicts simple flows equally well whereas, for adverse pressure gradient flows, the k-omega model outperforms the other turbulence models in NPARC.

Yoder, Dennis A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Applications of model structure determination to flight test data

Several statistical and information criteria need to be considered when selecting an adequate model. Incorrect stability and control derivates result from inadequate aerodynamic model structure. Stepwise regression is used to determine the structure for an adequate model. Flight data which covers a nonlinear aerodynamic model range may be analyzed as a single data set or partitioned into several distinct sets. Stepwise regression for model structure detemination and parameter estimation was successfully applied to three aircraft types (single engine general aviation, unaugmented modern jet fighter, jet transport).

Batterson, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Accelerated test modeling

Cycle life regression model, cycle life prediction model, and acceleration factors are discussed. A method was presented to: (1) select a mathematical model; (2) determine model coefficients using accelerated test data; (3) test model fit of the accelerated test data; and (4) predict normal packs.

Schwartz, D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

Smith, P. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Catalog of selected heavy duty transport energy management models

A catalog of energy management models for heavy duty transport systems powered by diesel engines is presented. The catalog results from a literature survey, supplemented by telephone interviews and mailed questionnaires to discover the major computer models currently used in the transportation industry in the following categories: heavy duty transport systems, which consist of highway (vehicle simulation), marine (ship simulation), rail (locomotive simulation), and pipeline (pumping station simulation); and heavy duty diesel engines, which involve models that match the intake/exhaust system to the engine, fuel efficiency, emissions, combustion chamber shape, fuel injection system, heat transfer, intake/exhaust system, operating performance, and waste heat utilization devices, i.e., turbocharger, bottoming cycle.

Colello, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flexible language constructs for large parallel programs

The goal of the research described is to develop flexible language constructs for writing large data parallel numerical programs for distributed memory (MIMD) multiprocessors. Previously, several models have been developed to support synchronization and communication. Models for global synchronization include SIMD (Single Instruction Multiple Data), SPMD (Single Program Multiple Data), and sequential programs annotated with data distribution statements. The two primary models for communication include implicit communication based on shared memory and explicit communication based on messages. None of these models by themselves seem sufficient to permit the natural and efficient expression of the variety of algorithms that occur in large scientific computations. An overview of a new language that combines many of these programming models in a clean manner is given. This is done in a modular fashion such that different models can be combined to support large programs. Within a module, the selection of a model depends on the algorithm and its efficiency requirements. An overview of the language and discussion of some of the critical implementation details is given.

Rosing, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS1961

Boundary-Layer Transition on a Group of Blunt Nose Shapes at a Mach Number of 2.20

An investigation has been made to study boundary-layer transition on six axisymmetrical blunt bodies of revolution. Model shapes were selected with respect to the degree of favorable pressure gradient over the model surface. Tests were conducted at a Mach number of 2.20 and over a range of free-stream Reynolds number per foot of about 1.4 x 10(exp 6) to 6.5 x 10(exp 6). The tests were made at an angle of attack of 0 deg. with zero heat transfer. For the hemisphere, the flow remained essentially laminar over the model surface length for the entire pressure range of the tests. For a strong favorable pressure gradient followed by any weak favorable, neutral, or adverse gradient, the tendency was for transition to occur at or immediately behind the shoulder. A single strip of three-dimensional roughness in the region of strong favorable pressure gradient did not fix transition on the models at the roughness location except at the maximum test pressures, whereas a second roughness strip added in a region of neutral or adverse pressure gradient did fix transition. Experimental pressure coefficients agreed closely with modified Newtonian theory except in the shoulder region.

Jackson, Mary W.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Automated Drug Identification for Urban Hospitals

Many urban hospitals are becoming overloaded with drug abuse cases requiring chemical analysis for identification of drugs. In this paper, the requirements for chemical analysis of body fluids for drugs are determined and a system model for automated drug analysis is selected. The system as modeled, would perform chemical preparation of samples, gas-liquid chromatographic separation of drugs in the chemically prepared samples, infrared spectrophotometric analysis of the drugs, and would utilize automatic data processing and control for drug identification. Requirements of cost, maintainability, reliability, flexibility, and operability are considered.

Shirley, Donna L.↗