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NASA NTRS2022

Potential impacts of projected warming scenarios on winter wheat in the UK

The goals of this study are to analyse the impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C scenarios on UK winter wheat using a combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs), crop models, planting dates and cultivars; to evaluate the impact of increased air temperature on winter wheat phenology and potential yield; to quantify the underlying uncertainties due to the multiple sources of variability introduced by climate scenarios, crop models and agronomic management. The data used to calibrate and evaluate three crop models were obtained from a field experiment with two irrigation amounts and two wheat cultivars that have different phenology and growth habit. After calibration, the model was applied to fifty locations across the wheat-growing area of the UK to cover all the main growing regions, with most points located in the main growing areas. Four GCMs, with two cultivars and five planting dates, were simulated at the end of the century. Results of this study showed that the UK potential wheat yield will increase by 2–8% under projected climate. Farmers will need to close such a gap in the future because it will have implications in terms of food security. Future climatic conditions might increase such a gap. Adaptation measures (e.g. moving the optimal planting time), along with climate-ready varieties bred for future conditions and with precision agriculture techniques can help to reduce this gap and ensure that the future actual UK wheat production will be close to the potential.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS1985

Development of thermomechanical life prediction models for thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components. To achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Mechanistic thermomechanical and thermochemical life models and statistically significant design data are therefore required for the reliable exploitation of TBC benefits on gas turbine airfoils. Garrett's NASA-HOST Program (NAS3-23945) is designed to fulfill these requirements. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating, and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulated layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical life models are being tailored to predict TBC strain tolerance in terms of materials, engine, and mission parameters. Continuum and fracture mechanics approaches and statistical methods are being evaluated to develop tensile and compressive strain functions required to drive a mission analysis capable thermomechanical life model for TBCs. Results of initial testing to calibrate these life models will be presented.

Strangman, T. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview

The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.

Orion↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of Iterative and Non-Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Load Calculation Methods

The accuracy of iterative and non-iterative strain-gage balance load calculation methods was compared using data from the calibration of a force balance. Two iterative and one non-iterative method were investigated. In addition, transformations were applied to balance loads in order to process the calibration data in both direct read and force balance format. NASA's regression model optimization tool BALFIT was used to generate optimized regression models of the calibration data for each of the three load calculation methods. This approach made sure that the selected regression models met strict statistical quality requirements. The comparison of the standard deviation of the load residuals showed that the first iterative method may be applied to data in both the direct read and force balance format. The second iterative method, on the other hand, implicitly assumes that the primary gage sensitivities of all balance gages exist. Therefore, the second iterative method only works if the given balance data is processed in force balance format. The calibration data set was also processed using the non-iterative method. Standard deviations of the load residuals for the three load calculation methods were compared. Overall, the standard deviations show very good agreement. The load prediction accuracies of the three methods appear to be compatible as long as regression models used to analyze the calibration data meet strict statistical quality requirements. Recent improvements of the regression model optimization tool BALFIT are also discussed in the paper.

Ulbrich, N.↗

NASA NTRS2022

VESIcal: A Critical Approach to Volatile Solubility Modelling Using the Open-Source Engine Vesical

Accurate models of H(2)O and CO(2) solubility in silicate melts are vital for understanding volcanic plumbing systems. These models are used to estimate the depths of magma storage regions from melt inclusion volatile contents, investigate the role of volatile exsolution as a driver of volcanic eruptions, and track the degassing path followed by a magma ascending to the surface. However, despite the large increase in the number of experimental constraints over the last two decades, many recent studies still utilize an earlier generation of models which were calibrated on experimental datasets with restricted compositional ranges. This may be because many of the available tools for more recent models require large numbers of input parameters to be hand-typed (e.g., temperature, concentrations of H(2)O, CO(2), and 8–14 oxides), making them difficult to implement on large datasets. Here, we use a new open-source Python3 tool, VESIcal, to critically evaluate the behaviors and sensitivities of different solubility models for a range of melt compositions. Using literature datasets of andesitic-dacitic experimental products and melt inclusions as case studies, we illustrate the importance of evaluating the calibration dataset of each model. Finally, we highlight the limitations of particular data presentation methods, such as isobar diagrams, and provide suggestions for alternatives, and best practices regarding the presentation and archiving of data. This review will aid the selection of the most applicable solubility model for different melt compositions, and identifies areas where additional experimental constraints on volatile solubility are required.

magma↗

NASA NTRS2007

Calculating Nozzle Side Loads using Acceleration Measurements of Test-Based Models

As part of a NASA/MSFC research program to evaluate the effect of different nozzle contours on the well-known but poorly characterized "side load" phenomena, we attempt to back out the net force on a sub-scale nozzle during cold-flow testing using acceleration measurements. Because modeling the test facility dynamics is problematic, new techniques for creating a "pseudo-model" of the facility and nozzle directly from modal test results are applied. Extensive verification procedures were undertaken, resulting in a loading scale factor necessary for agreement between test and model based frequency response functions. Side loads are then obtained by applying a wide-band random load onto the system model, obtaining nozzle response PSD's, and iterating both the amplitude and frequency of the input until a good comparison of the response with the measured response PSD for a specific time point is obtained. The final calculated loading can be used to compare different nozzle profiles for assessment during rocket engine nozzle development and as a basis for accurate design of the nozzle and engine structure to withstand these loads. The techniques applied within this procedure have extensive applicability to timely and accurate characterization of all test fixtures used for modal test.A viewgraph presentation on a model-test based pseudo-model used to calculate side loads on rocket engine nozzles is included. The topics include: 1) Side Loads in Rocket Nozzles; 2) Present Side Loads Research at NASA/MSFC; 3) Structural Dynamic Model Generation; 4) Pseudo-Model Generation; 5) Implementation; 6) Calibration of Pseudo-Model Response; 7) Pseudo-Model Response Verification; 8) Inverse Force Determination; 9) Results; and 10) Recent Work.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗

NASA NTRS1999

Code Calibration Applied to the TCA High-Lift Model in the 14 x 22 Wind Tunnel (Simulation With and Without Model Post-Mount)

The objective of this study is to calibrate a Navier-Stokes code for the TCA (30/10) baseline configuration (partial span leading edge flaps were deflected at 30 degs. and all the trailing edge flaps were deflected at 10 degs). The computational results for several angles of attack are compared with experimental force, moments, and surface pressures. The code used in this study is CFL3D; mesh sequencing and multi-grid were used to full advantage to accelerate convergence. A multi-grid approach was used similar to that used for the Reference H configuration allowing point-to-point matching across all the trailingedge block interfaces. From past experiences with the Reference H (ie, good force, moment, and pressure comparisons were obtained), it was assumed that the mounting system would produce small effects; hence, it was not initially modeled. However, comparisons of lower surface pressures indicated the post mount significantly influenced the lower surface pressures, so the post geometry was inserted into the existing grid using Chimera (overset grids).

Lessard, Wendy B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

The In-flight Spectroscopic Performance of the Swift XRT CCD Camera During 2006-2007

The Swift X-ray Telescope focal plane camera is a front-illuminated MOS CCD, providing a spectral response kernel of 135 eV FWHM at 5.9 keV as measured before launch. We describe the CCD calibration program based on celestial and on-board calibration sources, relevant in-flight experiences, and developments in the CCD response model. We illustrate how the revised response model describes the calibration sources well. Comparison of observed spectra with models folded through the instrument response produces negative residuals around and below the Oxygen edge. We discuss several possible causes for such residuals. Traps created by proton damage on the CCD increase the charge transfer inefficiency (CTI) over time. We describe the evolution of the CTI since the launch and its effect on the CCD spectral resolution and the gain.

Godet, O.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Consistent large-eddy simulation of a temporal mixing layer laden with evaporating drops : Part 1. Direct numerical simulation formulation and a priori analysis

This paper is organized as follows. In § 2, we present the DNS formulation. This formulation consists of a set of coupled conservation equations for the gas phase and the liquid phase (i.e. the drops). The coupling describing the interaction between the two phases is provided in the gas-phase conservation equations by source terms. In § 3, we analyse the DNS results; in particular, we evaluate the adopted form of the heat and mass fluxes. The gas-phase LES equations are developed in § 4 and assumptions that may simplify these equations are examined using the DNS database. Thereafter, the contribution of the source terms is examined by considering the budget of the LES equations. The final form of the LES equations are then presented, in which only the SGS fluxes and the FSTs need be modelled. A parallel perspective on the importance of the source terms is presented in § 5, wherein the irreversible entropy production (i.e. the dissipation) expression for two-phase flow with phase change is derived and evaluated for transitional DNS and the filtered flow fields. Models for the FSTs appearing in the LES equations are investigated in § 6, while several constantcoefficient SGS models are proposed and calibrated in § 7. The present study aims to create simple models so that the modelling approach can be validated by means of an SGS models are proposed and calibrated in § 7. The present study aims to create simple models so that the modelling approach can be validated by means of an a posteriori study.

"Okong'o, Nora A.", 'Bellan, Josette↗

NASA NTRS2007

Effects on Spacecraft Radiometric Data at Superior Solar Conjunction

During 2006, three ESA interplanetary spacecraft, Rosetta, Mars Express (MEX) and Venus Express (VEX), passed through superior solar conjunction. For all three spacecraft, the noise in the post-fit range-rate residuals from the orbit determination was analysed. At small Sun-Earth-Probe (SEP) angles the level was almost two orders of magnitude higher than normal. The main objective was to characterize the Doppler (rangerate) noise as a function of SEP angle. At least then the range-rate data can be appropriately weighted within the orbit determination so that the solution uncertainties are realistic. For VEX, some intervals of particularly noisy Doppler data could be correlated with unusual solar activity. For Rosetta, the biases in the range data residuals were analysed with the aim of improving the model used for calibrating the signal delay due to the solar plasma. The model, which originally had fixed coefficients, was adjusted to achieve better fits to the data. Even the relatively small Doppler biases were well represented. Using the improved model, the electron density at 20 solar radii was compared with earlier results obtained by radio science studies using Voyager 2 and Ulysses radiometric data. There is some evidence for a dependency of the density on the phase within the 11 years solar cycle.

Morley, Trevor↗

NASA NTRS2020

Toward Complete Characterization: Prospects for Directly Imaging Transiting Exoplanets

High-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of "standard planets" must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semimajor axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ~8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at the V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.

Christopher C. Stark↗

NASA NTRS2022

Interaction of a Tunnel-like Acoustic Disturbance Field with a Blunt Cone Boundary Layer at Mach 8

The existing measurements of laminar-to-turbulent transition over circular cones in conventional (i.e., “noisy”) hypersonic wind tunnels have established that the transition location moves downstream when the nose radius is increased from zero. However, this initially downstream movement slows down and ultimately reverses beyond a critical value of the nose radius, and may be related to external forcing in the form of freestream disturbances and/or surface roughness. To understand the effects of freestream acoustic disturbances on transition reversal over a blunt body, hypersonic boundary-layer receptivity to broadband freestream acoustic disturbances from the nozzle wall of a digital conventional wind tunnel is investigated by both direct numerical simulations (DNS) and modal and nonmodal stability analysis. A Mach 8 flow over a 7 deg half-angle cone with a nose radius of 𝑅 𝑛 = 5.2mm and freestream Reynolds number of 12.2 × 10 6 m -1 is considered. The results show that the broadband tunnel noise in the free stream of a convectional hypersonic wind tunnel (i.e., outside of the nozzle-wall turbulent boundary layer) can be well represented by an acoustic model with an ansatz of slow acoustic waves. With successful calibration of the model parameters against the precursor tunnel DNS, such an acoustic ansatz can successfully reproduce both the frequency-wavenumber spectra and the temporal evolution of the broadband tunnel noise radiated from the nozzle wall. Additionally, the DNS of the Mach 8 blunt cone with tunnel-like acoustic input above the bow shock showed that the spectra of wall-pressure and heat-transfer fluctuations recovers the signature of the axisymmetric waves predicted by the nonmodal analysis. Furthermore, the azimuthal wavenumber and frequency spectrum of the temperature fluctuations as a function of the wall-normal distance show higher amplitudes for three-dimensional waves above the boundary-layer edge. The numerical schlieren contours show the inclined structures commonly observed in blunt cone experiments, demonstrating that they correspond to three-dimensional structures due to freestream disturbances in the presence of an entropy layer.

Boundary-layer transition↗

NASA NTRS2022

Interaction of a Tunnel-like Acoustic Disturbance Field with a Blunt Cone Boundary Layer at Mach 8

Boundary layer transition↗

NASA NTRS1985

A preliminary investigation of the dynamic force-calibration of a magnetic suspension and balance system

The aerodynamic forces and moments acting upon a magnetically suspended wind tunnel model are derived from calibrations of suspension electro magnet currents against known forces. As an alternative to the conventional calibration method of applying steady forces to the model, early experiences with dynamic calibration are outlined, that is a calibration obtained by oscillating a model in suspension and deriving a force/current relationship from its inertia force and the unsteady components of currents. Advantages of dynamic calibration are speed and simplicity. The two methods of calibration applied to one force component show good agreement.

Goodyer, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Absolute Effective Area of the Chandra High-Resolution Mirror Assembly

The Chandra X-ray Observatory was launched in July 1999, and is returning exquisite sub-arcsecond x-ray images of star groups, supernova remnants, galaxies, quasars, and clusters of galaxies. In addition to being the premier X-ray observatory in terms of angular and spectral resolution, Chandra is the best calibrated X-ray facility ever flown. We discuss here the calibration of the effective area of the High Resolution Mirror Assembly. Because we do not know the absolute X-ray flux density of any celestial source, this must be based primarily on ground measurements and on modeling. In particular, we must remove the calibrated modeled responses of the detectors and gratings to obtain the mirror area. For celestial sources which may be assumed to have smoothly varying spectra, such as the Crab Nebula, we may verify the continuity of the area calibration as a function of energy. This is of significance in energy regions such as the Ir M-edges, or near the critical grazing angle cutoff of the various mirror shells.

Schwartz, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Understanding the Impacts of Land Surface and PBL Observations on the Terrestrial and Atmospheric Legs of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

Accurately representing land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions and coupling in NWP systems remains a challenge. New observations, incorporated into models via assimilation or calibration, hold the promise of improved forecast skill, but erroneous model coupling can hinder the benefits of such activities. To better understand model representation of coupled interactions and feedbacks, this study demonstrates a novel framework for coupled calibration of the Single Column Model (SCM) capability of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) system coupled to NASA’s Land Information System (LIS). The local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) process chain paradigm is used to assess the processes and connections revealed by calibration experiments. Two summer case studies in the U. S. Southern Great Plains are simulated in which LSM parameters are calibrated to diurnal observations of LoCo process chain components including 2-meter temperature, 2-meter humidity, surface fluxes (Bowen ratio), and PBL height. Results show a wide range of soil moisture and hydraulic parameter solutions depending on which L-A variable (i.e. observation) is used for calibration, highlighting that improvement in either SHP or ISM when not in tandem with the other can provide undesirable results. Overall, this work demonstrates that a process chain calibration approach can be used to assess L-A connections, feedbacks, strengths, and deficiencies in coupled models, as well as quantify the potential impact of new sources of observations of land-PBL variables on coupled prediction.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗

NASA NTRS2020

X-ray Spectra of the Fe-L Complex II: Atomic Data Constraints from the EBIT Experiment and X-Ray Grating Observations of Capella

The Hitomi results for the Perseus cluster have shown that accurate atomic models are essential to the success of X-ray spectroscopic missions and just as important as the store of knowledge on instrumental calibration and astrophysical modeling. Preparing the models requires a multifaceted approach, including theoretical calculations, laboratory measurements, and calibration using real observations. In a previous paper, we presented a calculation of the electron impact cross sections on the transitions forming the Fe-L complex. In the present work, we systematically tested the calculation against cross-sections of ions measured in an electron beam ion trap experiment. A two-dimensional analysis in the electron beam energies and X-ray photon energies was utilized to disentangle radiative channels following dielectronic recombination, direct electron-impact excitation, and resonant excitation processes in the experimental data. The data calibrated through laboratory measurements were further fed into a global modeling of the Chandra grating spectrum of Capella. We investigated and compared the fit quality, as well as the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the underlying atomic data and the astrophysical plasma modeling. We further list the potential areas of disagreement between the observations and the present calculations, which, in turn, calls for renewed efforts with regard to theoretical calculations and targeted laboratory measurements.

Liyi Gu↗