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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine-learning Solution for Automatic Spacesuit Motion Recognition and Measurement from Conventional Video

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) spacesuits exhibit unique movement patterns due to their design characteristics. Mobility assessments using traditional motion capture systems are cost prohibitive and not feasible for some training conditions (e.g., simulated lunar outdoor terrain). This paper aims to present the ongoing development of machine learning solutions to quantify suit motions from conventional videos without special sensors or hardware. Given the fast growth in deep/machine learning technologies, external expertise was sought from open-source communities. This was expected to accelerate development and provide more cost-effective, time-saving solutions. This work was selected for a NASA Crowdsourcing project through an agency-wide solicitation. Partnerships were formed with the NASA JSC Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation and an execution crowdsourcing platform partner to solicit framework developments from external contenders. NASA provided contenders with video clips of spacesuits and simultaneously measured motion capture data during EVA simulation tasks. The contenders used this data to train and develop generalized algorithms to predict motions. At the end of the crowdsourcing event, five solutions were selected from 250 submissions. Each submission was tested and scored using video clips not previously disclosed to the contenders. The scoring metrics measured how well the algorithm detected the suit shape, the 2D suit joint detection accuracy, and 3D joint detection accuracy. The winning solution was able to achieve roughly 85% prediction accuracy (weighted combination of scoring metrics). Overall, the algorithms could efficiently detect various types of spacesuits and motions across different EVA simulation environments such as the Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). However, 3D joint identification is less reliable when parts of the suit were obstructed in the image. After continued improvements and validation, the fully developed system will enable EVA stakeholders to quantify suit kinematic patterns, which can help optimize suit, hardware, and task designs.

Linh Vu↗

NASA NTRS2022

Discovery of CWISE J052306.42-015355.4, an Extreme T Subdwarf Candidate

We present the discovery of CWISE J052306.42−015355.4, which was found as a faint, significant proper-motion object (0(\farcs)52 ± 0(\farcs)08 per yr) using machine-learning tools on the unWISE re-processing of time series images from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Using the CatWISE2020 W1 and W2 magnitudes along with a J-band detection from the VISTA Hemisphere Survey, the location of CWISE J052306.42−015355.4 on the W1 − W2 versus J − W2 diagram best matches that of other known, or suspected, extreme T subdwarfs. As there is currently very little knowledge concerning extreme T subdwarfs we estimate a rough distance of ≤68 pc, which results in a tangential velocity of ≤167 km/s, both of which are tentative. A measured parallax is greatly needed to test these values. We also estimate a metallicity of −1.5 < [M/H] < −0.5 using theoretical predictions.

Hunter Brooks↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Ready Dataset of Acoustic Power Maps for Detection of Active Region Emergence

The development of an accurate forecast for solar eruptive activity has become increasingly important in order to prevent any potential impact on activities in space and the Earth's environment. It is therefore crucial to detect active regions before they appear on the solar surface and create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances. In this work, 9TB of solar data (SDO/HMI dopplergrams, magnetograms and continuum intensity maps) involving the emergence of 61 NOAA solar active regions since 2010 were processed using the NASA HECC capabilities. An acoustic power maps time-series dataset was created (for four different frequency ranges and processed to take into account the solar sphere geometric effect ) which can be used for understanding the dynamics of the solar surface and train a variety of ML models. The calculated acoustic power maps carry precursor information associated with the decrease in continuum intensity on the solar surface, verifying older helioseismology research. Our results show that a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) model, with a modest layer depth and the right hyperparameters tuned, when trained on this solar acoustic power maps dataset can predict without false negatives a drop in intensity (associated with the emergence of the active region), up to 18 hours in advance.

SMD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRS2023

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wildfire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry (a Marin-based fire service workforce development program) and the Marin County Fire Department to develop models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, PlanetScope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), our team developed a number of input data layers for three different models to evaluate wildfire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature; another model utilized a U-Net Convolutional Neural Network trained on previous fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn severity; and the third inputted data layers into the FlamMap tool that outputs risk categories. We compared model outputs and performed a weighted overlay analysis to identify specific locations where a fireline could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools will assist partners in preparing for and managing active wildfire situations.

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parameterization of Vertical Cloud Distribution from C3M and MERRA Data Using ML Method

Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.

Shan Zeng↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Super-Resolution from Space: Using MERRA-2 and MAIAC Satellite Imagery to Produce Daily Continuous 1 km PM2.5 Estimates

PM2.5 measurements from ground stations are the gold standard when available, but the expense and coverage of such stations limits widespread monitoring. Having accurate PM2.5 estimates outside the range of these stations is important for monitoring this crucial aspect of air quality. The goal of this project is to produce daily 1 km continuous PM2.5 estimates for the contiguous US relying primarily on satellite-derived data sources. This is important because models based on such data can be more easily expanded outside the study area and produce global estimates as well. The temporal availability of such data products is often weekly/daily, unlike land-use products with are often available at a yearly or worse temporal resolution. To achieve our goal, we use a couple of different deep neural network architectures to produce PM2.5 measurements at 10 km and 1 km resolution. We use two model architectures, a UNET-like model and a GAN-based model. We train both models using MERRA-2 data and MAIAC AOD data scaled to 10 km and 1 km for the two different prediction resolutions. MERRA-2 imagery is data rich with a wide range of geospatial variables at 50 km and has long historical availability (beginning in 1980). We’re also using higher spatial resolution MAIAC data at 1 km to provide finer resolution spatial context. This essentially leverages the spatial resolution of MAIAC data and the “wider” information of MERRA-2 data to predict PM2.5. For the target data we’re using a modeled 1 km PM2.5 dataset produced by Harvard to pre-train our models and then fine-tune our models using ground station measurements. Not only are our results comparable with the performance of the Harvard dataset, but can be generalized to any area or time where MERRA-2 and MAIAC data is available.

satellite imagery↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT’s Streamflow-AI: Updates and Advancements

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has been running a near-real-time deep learning model, Streamflow-AI, that predicts stream heights at over 250 locations across the Eastern United States out to 7 days for several years. This project was born out of a research-to-operations/operation-to-research (R2O/O2R) paradigm within SPoRT through extensive collaboration with National Weather Service (NWS) and River Forecast Center (RFC) forecasters. The original intention of Streamflow-AI was to provide accurate medium range (>2 days) forecasts of river flooding events that are particularly challenging for NWS forecasters, because routine streamflow forecasts may not incorporate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) data beyond one or two days. Therefore, Streamflow-AI was designed to help fill the operational gap, producing routine 7 day river level forecasts using a suite of QPFs. Throughout the evolution of the project, research efforts have been tailored to meet the needs of the end users. This presentation will provide a brief overview of NASA SPoRT’s Streamflow-AI product, highlighting O2R/R2O concepts with a focus on recent developments including a 1-hr rapid update model and 15-min burn scar flooding modeling efforts.

Flooding↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Enhance Mission Design and Operations of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO)

One key aspect in the development of HWO is the early deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to enhance mission science and operations. Our subtask group is part of the HWO AI/ML working group and focuses on AI and ML for mission operations. Our task group seeks to educate other HWO working groups about AI and ML capabilities for mission operations, investigate how to bridge technology gaps, and enable new capabilities particularly in the areas of observational scheduling, instrument health monitoring, and downlink operations. We focus on mission tasking / scheduling both for mission analysis in development and operations. AI and ML for mission scheduling includes: tools to support proposal calls and review, ensuring fairness in calls for proposals, community peer reviews and ease workloads, as well as in-flight and ground software development (e.g., using natural language processing (NLP) to support process automation from requirements). AI and ML for the mission’s development and operations include 1) anomaly detection and prediction (from onboard and ground based tools) to monitor the spacecraft’s health, 2) ground-based automated scheduling for mission operations including long-term and short-term planning and maintenance, and 3) flight system flexible execution (as flight proven for Spitzer and JWST) to enable robust execution despite execution variations, and 4) data analysis for prioritization (e.g., real-time data evaluation leading to autonomous actions and adjustments, high-priority identification, onboard data compression, etc.). Incorporation of ML and AI will enable HWO to address the major science questions related to exoplanet characterization, general astrophysics, and solar system exploration and also extend the boundaries of space mission technologies.

Mark Moussa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Application of a Bayesian Framework for Plasticity Model Selection

Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has performed well when tasked with deriving constitutive material models. However, IML has been shown to prefer models that overfit noise in data, which tends to lead to bloat and a decrease in interpretability. Due to these issues, the ability of IML to reliably derive models that fit the data and are both interpretable and generalizable is limited. A method developed recently has shown promise to improve upon traditional IML by using a Bayesian fitness definition for the evolution of free-form models with non-deterministic parameters. This framework was developed for genetic-programming-based symbolic regression(GPSR) and involves model parameter estimation using Sequential Monte Carlo sampling (SMC).The method has demonstrated a reduction in bloat when dealing with noisy data in comparison to conventional GPSR. The results of this framework applied to stress-strain data for copper show models that more effectively predict the experimental data better than was previously shown with GPSR.

plasticity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-Based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

Future communication subsystems of space exploration missions can potentially benefit from software-defined radios (SDRs) controlled by machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid radio resource allocation management control algorithm that integrates multi-objective reinforcement learning and deep artificial neural networks. The objective is to efficiently manage communications system resources by monitoring performance functions with common dependent variables that result in conflicting goals. The uncertainty in the performance of thousands of different possible combinations of radio parameters makes the trade-off between exploration and exploitation in reinforcement learning (RL) much more challenging for future critical space-based missions. Thus, the system should spend as little time as possible on exploring actions, and whenever it explores an action, it should perform at acceptable levels most of the time. The proposed approach enables on-line learning by interactions with the environment and restricts poor resource allocation performance through virtual environment exploration. Improvements in the multiobjective performance can be achieved via transmitter parameter adaptation on a packet-basis, with poorly predicted performance promptly resulting in rejected decisions. Simulations presented in this work considered the DVB-S2 standard adaptive transmitter parameters and additional ones expected to be present in future adaptive radio systems. Performance results are provided by analysis of the proposed hybrid algorithm when operating across a satellite communication channel from Earth to GEO orbit during clear sky conditions. The proposed approach constitutes part of the core cognitive engine proof-of-concept to be delivered to the NASA Glenn Research Center SCaN Testbed located onboard the International Space Station.

space archtiecture↗

NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

space archtiecture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real World Applications of AI/ML in Optimizing Airspace Operations

As National Airspace System (NAS) is going through the Digital Transformation journey, data science and analytics methods can significantly contribute to improving the traditional physics-based decision-making tools. The adoption of AI/ML methods will not only help accelerate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s vision of Info-centric NAS but also contribute to the overall objective of sustainable aviation. AI/ML can improve the ground and airspace operations by enhancing the accuracy of current decision-making tools used by the airlines and the FAA to manage traffic on the ground and in the air. Huge amount of data that gets collected during a flight. AI/ML methods can extract information from this data and provide valuable insights to make better operational decisions. NASA has partnered with the FAA and commercial airlines such as American and Southwest Airlines on this effort and has successfully demonstrated the benefits of using ML in real world environment by reducing delays and optimizing ground operations at the US airports. In 2022 itself, NASA demonstrated real-world benefits (over 24K lbs. of fuel savings, over 76.6K lbs. CO2 emission savings, and several hours of delay savings) by deploying ML based prediction models to optimize ground operations at Dallas/Fort Worth International and Dallas Love Field Airports in Texas. These tools are being deployed on the cloud for broader deployment, adaptability, and scalability. NASA is developed a reference implementation of the cloud-based platform to significantly lower the bar to development and distribution of these digital services for aviation. In this talk, I will share information about the Digital Information Platform project, the novel AI/ML based approaches used for optimizing ground operations and the opportunities to partner with NASA on these demonstrations.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2022

Predicting Unreinforced Fabric Mechanical Behavior with Recurrent Neural Networks

Unreinforced woven fabrics are widely employed in various high-performance applications, including parachute deployment systems, airbags, and ballistic armor. The analysis of such materials is inherently complex due to the multiscale structure of these materials, and the dependence of macroscale behavior on changes that occur at lower scales. Previously, NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) showed its capability in predicting unreinforced fabric behavior at the macroscale by capturing finite rotations that occur at the mesoscale. Though effective, the tool can face high computational cost for large, complex problems, motivating the need for the development of a surrogate model that can capture the same behavior. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was developed and trained on virtual NASMAT data to mimic the physics-based solutions while improving the computational runtime. The architecture of the RNN to best simulate the fabric behavior was carefully crafted based on heuristic knowledge of predicting physics-based temporal data, manual hyperparameter case studies, and Hyperband optimization.. The resultant model was able to predict a variety of stress-strain curves for fabrics with different mesoscale geometries, and was further validated by comparing to experimental data for the K706 style Kevlar plain-weave fabric, demonstrating the ability of the model to effectively capture the geometric changes in the fabric without explicitly calculating them, as is done in NASMAT. Furthermore, the tool showed its ability to improve on the runtime by a factor of 10 for fabric solutions compared to the multiscale tool, which would further enable the simulation of complex loading scenarios on unreinforced fabrics.

Fabric↗