Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “MODEL”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

An experimental and chemical kinetic modeling study of 4-butoxyheptane combustion

Here, the combustion kinetics of a novel oxygenated bioblendstock for diesel, 4-butoxyheptane (4-BH), was investigated experimentally using a flow reactor and a heated, high-pressure shock tube. The flow reactor experiments employed oxygen as the oxidizer and helium as the diluent with oxidation conducted at atmospheric pressure and 10 bar for temperatures from 400 to 1000 K at 20-K intervals. The fuel, oxidizer, and diluent flow rates were varied at different temperatures to maintain a constant initial fuel mole fraction of 1000 ppm, with stoichiometric equivalence ratio, and a residence time of 2.0 s. The reacted gas was fed to two separate GC systems that could qualitatively and quantitatively detect product species. Additionally, real fuel-air ignition delay time (IDT) data were collected using a heated, high-pressure shock-tube facility. Fuel lean (φ = 0.5) and stoichiometric (φ = 1.0) mixtures were investigated at 10 atm as well as at 30 atm for the fuel lean case for temperatures between 847 and 1259 K. A detailed chemical kinetics mechanism was developed to model the product distribution from the flow reactor and IDTs from the shock tube. The proposed model was able to predict the double NTC behavior in flow reactor experiments reasonably well. Model predictions at low temperatures were observed to be highly sensitive to the rate constants of ketohydroperoxide (KHP) decomposition in the case of the OOH group in α position which were modeled based on existing literature studies on ethers. It was noted that in the absence of theoretical or experimental studies, the rate constants for KHP decomposition used in the literature were empirically set. Additional studies are required to address the gap in model prediction obtained in this study and to reduce the uncertainty in kinetics models for ether oxidation. Predicted product concentrations and IDTs showed some quantitative agreement with experimental data, but the overall reactivity of the IDTs is underpredicted. Additionally, significant deviation is observed for the IDT results at 10 atm for the stoichiometric case with minor deviations for the other cases. The reaction pathways to the missing products were then further analyzed theoretically through quantum-mechanical calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Bacillus anthracis Spore Deposition in Rabbit and Human Respiratory Airways

Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics and Lagrangian particle deposition models were developed to compare the deposition of aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores in the respiratory airways of a human with that of the rabbit, a species commonly used in the study of anthrax disease. The respiratory airway geometries for each species were derived from computed tomography (CT) or µCT images. Both models encompassed airways that extended from the external nose to the lung with a total of 272 outlets in the human model and 2878 outlets in the rabbit model. All simulations of spore deposition were conducted under transient, inhalation-exhalation breathing conditions using average species-specific minute volumes. The highest exposure concentration was modeled in the rabbit based upon prior acute inhalation studies. For comparison, human simulation was also conducted at the same concentration. Results demonstrated that regional spore deposition patterns were sensitive to airway geometry and ventilation profiles. Due to the complex airway geometries in the rabbit nose, higher spore deposition efficiency was predicted in the upper conducting airways compared to the human at the same air concentration of anthrax spores. As a result, higher particle deposition was predicted in the conducting airways and deep lung of the human compared to the rabbit lung due to differences in airway branching pattern. This information can be used to refine published and ongoing biokinetic models of inhalation anthrax spore exposures, which currently estimate deposited spore concentrations based solely upon exposure concentrations and inhaled doses that do not factor in species-specific anatomy and physiology.

bacillus anthracis↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multi-Phase CFD Modeling of Solid Sorbent Carbon Capture System

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are used to investigate a low temperature post-combustion carbon capture reactor. The CFD models are based on a small scale solid sorbent carbon capture reactor design from ADA-ES and Southern Company. The reactor is a fluidized bed design based on a silica-supported amine sorbent. CFD models using both Eulerian-Eulerian and Eulerian-Lagrangian multi-phase modeling methods are developed to investigate the hydrodynamics and adsorption of carbon dioxide in the reactor. Models developed in both FLUENT® and BARRACUDA are presented to explore the strengths and weaknesses of state of the art CFD codes for modeling multi-phase carbon capture reactors. The results of the simulations show that the FLUENT® Eulerian-Lagrangian simulations (DDPM) are unstable for the given reactor design; while the BARRACUDA Eulerian-Lagrangian model is able to simulate the system given appropriate simplifying assumptions. FLUENT® Eulerian-Eulerian simulations also provide a stable solution for the carbon capture reactor given the appropriate simplifying assumptions.

Ryan, Emily M.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Clouds in Version 1 of E3SM Atmosphere Model with Satellite and Simulators

This study systematically evaluates clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version one (EAMv1) against satellite and ground-based cloud observations. Both low (1°) and high (0.25°) resolution EAMv1 configurations generally underestimate clouds in low and midlatitutes and overestimate clouds in the Arctic although the error is smaller in the high-resolution model. The underestimate of clouds is due to the underestimate of optically thin to intermediate clouds. EAMv1 overestimates the optically intermediate to thick clouds. Other model errors include the largely under-predicted stratocumulus along the coasts and high clouds over the tropical deep convection regions. The underestimate of thin clouds results in too much LW radiation being emitted to space and too little SW radiation being reflected back to space while the overestimate of optically intermediate and thick clouds leads to too little LW radiation being emitted to space and too much SW radiation being reflected back to space. EAMv1 shows better skill in reproducing the observed distribution of clouds and their properties and has smaller radiatively relevant errors in the distribution of clouds than most of the CFMIP2 models. It produces more supercooled liquid cloud fraction than CAM5 and most CMIP5 models owing to a new ice nucleation scheme and a reduction of ice deposition growth rate. It simulates the diurnal variation of clouds during the summer season at SGP qualitatively well, with both the evolution of shallow clouds and the nocturnal peak in high clouds well captured, however, it largely overestimates the observed magnitude.

Zhang, Yuying↗
DOE OSTI2017

In silico environmental chemical science: properties and processes from statistical and computational modelling

Quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSARs) have long been used in the environmental sciences. More recently, molecular modeling and chemoinformatic methods have become widespread. These methods have the potential to expand and accelerate advances in environmental chemistry because they complement observational and experimental data with “in silico” results and analysis. The opportunities and challenges that arise at the intersection between statistical and theoretical in silico methods are most apparent in the context of properties that determine the environmental fate and effects of chemical contaminants (degradation rate constants, partition coefficients, toxicities, etc.). The main example of this is the calibration of QSARs using descriptor variable data calculated from molecular modeling, which can make QSARs more useful for predicting property data that are unavailable, but also can make them more powerful tools for diagnosis of fate determining pathways and mechanisms. Emerging opportunities for “in silico environmental chemical science” are to move beyond the calculation of specific chemical properties using statistical models and toward more fully in silico models, prediction of transformation pathways and products, incorporation of environmental factors into model predictions, integration of databases and predictive models into more comprehensive and efficient tools for exposure assessment, and extending the applicability of all the above from chemicals to biologicals and materials.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
DOE OSTI2014

Particle dispersion in homogeneous turbulence using the one-dimensional turbulence model

Lagrangian particle dispersion is studied using the one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) model in homogeneous decaying turbulence configurations. The ODT model has been widely and successfully applied to a number of reacting and nonreacting flow configurations, but only limited application has been made to multiphase flows. Here, we present a version of the particle implementation and interaction with the stochastic and instantaneous ODT eddy events. The model is characterized by comparison to experimental data of particle dispersion for a range of intrinsic particle time scales and body forces. Particle dispersion, velocity, and integral time scale results are presented. The particle implementation introduces a single model parameter β{sub p}, and sensitivity to this parameter and behavior of the model are discussed. Good agreement is found with experimental data and the ODT model is able to capture the particle inertial and trajectory crossing effects. These results serve as a validation case of the multiphase implementations of ODT for extensions to other flow configurations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Weighted-density functionals for cavity formation and dispersion energies in continuum solvation models

Continuum solvation models enable efficient first principles calculations of chemical reactions in solution, but require extensive parametrization and fitting for each solvent and class of solute systems. Here, we examine the assumptions of continuum solvation models in detail and replace empirical terms with physical models in order to construct a minimally-empirical solvation model. Specifically, we derive solvent radii from the nonlocal dielectric response of the solvent from ab initio calculations, construct a closed-form and parameter-free weighted-density approximation for the free energy of the cavity formation, and employ a pair-potential approximation for the dispersion energy. We show that the resulting model with a single solvent-independent parameter: the electron density threshold (n{sub c}), and a single solvent-dependent parameter: the dispersion scale factor (s{sub 6}), reproduces solvation energies of organic molecules in water, chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride with RMS errors of 1.1, 0.6 and 0.5 kcal/mol, respectively. We additionally show that fitting the solvent-dependent s{sub 6} parameter to the solvation energy of a single non-polar molecule does not substantially increase these errors. Parametrization of this model for other solvents, therefore, requires minimal effort and is possible without extensive databases of experimental solvation free energies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

A kinetic model for stress generation in thin films grown from energetic vapor fluxes

We have developed a kinetic model for residual stress generation in thin films grown from energetic vapor fluxes, encountered, e.g., during sputter deposition. The new analytical model considers sub-surface point defects created by atomic peening, along with processes treated in already existing stress models for non-energetic deposition, i.e., thermally activated diffusion processes at the surface and the grain boundary. According to the new model, ballistically induced sub-surface defects can get incorporated as excess atoms at the grain boundary, remain trapped in the bulk, or annihilate at the free surface, resulting in a complex dependence of the steady-state stress on the grain size, the growth rate, as well as the energetics of the incoming particle flux. We compare calculations from the model with in situ stress measurements performed on a series of Mo films sputter-deposited at different conditions and having different grain sizes. The model is able to reproduce the observed increase of compressive stress with increasing growth rate, behavior that is the opposite of what is typically seen under non-energetic growth conditions. On a grander scale, this study is a step towards obtaining a comprehensive understanding of stress generation and evolution in vapor deposited polycrystalline thin films.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cosmological parameter uncertainties from SALT-II type Ia supernova light curve models

We use simulated type Ia supernova (SN Ia) samples, including both photometry and spectra, to perform the first direct validation of cosmology analysis using the SALT-II light curve model. This validation includes residuals from the light curve training process, systematic biases in SN Ia distance measurements, and a bias on the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Using the SN-analysis package SNANA, we simulate and analyze realistic samples corresponding to the data samples used in the SNLS3 analysis: ∼120 low-redshift (z < 0.1) SNe Ia, ∼255 Sloan Digital Sky Survey SNe Ia (z < 0.4), and ∼290 SNLS SNe Ia (z ≤ 1). To probe systematic uncertainties in detail, we vary the input spectral model, the model of intrinsic scatter, and the smoothing (i.e., regularization) parameters used during the SALT-II model training. Using realistic intrinsic scatter models results in a slight bias in the ultraviolet portion of the trained SALT-II model, and w biases (w {sub input} – w {sub recovered}) ranging from –0.005 ± 0.012 to –0.024 ± 0.010. These biases are indistinguishable from each other within the uncertainty; the average bias on w is –0.014 ± 0.007.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analytical Modeling of a Novel Transverse Flux Machine for Direct Drive Wind Turbine Applications

This paper presents a nonlinear analytical model of a novel double sided flux concentrating Transverse Flux Machine (TFM) based on the Magnetic Equivalent Circuit (MEC) model. The analytical model uses a series-parallel combination of flux tubes to predict the flux paths through different parts of the machine including air gaps, permanent magnets (PM), stator, and rotor. The two-dimensional MEC model approximates the complex three-dimensional flux paths of the TFM and includes the effects of magnetic saturation. The model is capable of adapting to any geometry which makes it a good alternative for evaluating prospective designs of TFM as compared to finite element solvers which are numerically intensive and require more computation time. A single phase, 1 kW, 400 rpm machine is analytically modeled and its resulting flux distribution, no-load EMF and torque, verified with Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The results are found to be in agreement with less than 5% error, while reducing the computation time by 25 times.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting Write Performance of Supercomputer I/O Systems with Regression Models

This work seeks to advance the state of the art in HPC I/O performance analysis and interpretation. In particular, we demonstrate effective techniques to: (1) model output performance in the presence of I/O interference from production loads; (2) build features from write patterns and key parameters of the system architecture and configurations; (3) employ suitable machine learning algorithms to improve model accuracy. We train models with five popular regression algorithms and conduct experiments on two distinct production HPC platforms. We find that the lasso and random forest models predict output performance with high accuracy on both of the target systems. We also explore use of the models to guide adaptation in I/O middleware systems, and show potential for improvements of at least 15% from model-guided adaptation on 70% of samples, and improvements up to 10× on some samples for both of the target systems.

Xie, Bing↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling DNP3 Traffic Characteristics of Field Devices in SCADA Systems of the Smart Grid

In the generation, transmission, and distribution sectors of the smart grid, intelligence of field devices is realized by programmable logic controllers (PLCs). Many smart-grid subsystems are essentially cyber-physical energy systems (CPES): For instance, the power system process (i.e., the physical part) within a substation is monitored and controlled by a SCADA network with hosts running miscellaneous applications (i.e., the cyber part). To study the interactions between the cyber and physical components of a CPES, several co-simulation platforms have been proposed. However, the network simulators/emulators of these platforms do not include a detailed traffic model that takes into account the impacts of the execution model of PLCs on traffic characteristics. As a result, network traces generated by co-simulation only reveal the impacts of the physical process on the contents of the traffic generated by SCADA hosts, whereas the distinction between PLCs and computing nodes (e.g., a hardened computer running a process visualization application) has been overlooked. To generate realistic network traces using co-simulation for the design and evaluation of applications relying on accurate traffic profiles, it is necessary to establish a traffic model for PLCs. In this work, we propose a parameterized model for PLCs that can be incorporated into existing co-simulation platforms. We focus on the DNP3 subsystem of slave PLCs, which automates the processing of packets from the DNP3 master. To validate our approach, we extract model parameters from both the configuration and network traces of real PLCs. Simulated network traces are generated and compared against those from PLCs. Our evaluation shows that our proposed model captures the essential traffic characteristics of DNP3 slave PLCs, which can be used to extend existing co-simulation platforms and gain further insights into the behaviors of CPES.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling batch melting: Roles of heat transfer and reaction kinetics

Development of mathematical models of heat and mass transfer in glass-melting furnaces began in the 1970s and progressed rapidly with advances in sophisticated experimental/numerical techniques and increasing computational power. Today, practically all newly built or rebuilt furnaces are optimized with these models to meet stringent quality requirements, reduce the unit costs of manufacturing, or control emissions. One remaining hurdle is to model the batch-to-glass conversion accurately enough to reliably assess the glass production rate. This article summarizes two key aspects of the batch-conversion modeling—the heat transfer and the kinetics of conversion—and reviews the current state-of-the-art approaches to simulating them. We critically examine the advantages of the commonly used heat transfer approach, but also explain that its predictive capabilities are significantly restricted by the dependence of batch thermal properties on the time-temperature history. We argue that kinetic approaches to the batch-conversion modeling would offer a significant improvement when coupled with the heat transfer approach. Finally, we summarize key areas requiring further research on the way toward a realistic model of the batch blanket.

Pokorny, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2014

Expediting model-based optoacoustic reconstructions with tomographic symmetries

Purpose: Image quantification in optoacoustic tomography implies the use of accurate forward models of excitation, propagation, and detection of optoacoustic signals while inversions with high spatial resolution usually involve very large matrices, leading to unreasonably long computation times. The development of fast and memory efficient model-based approaches represents then an important challenge to advance on the quantitative and dynamic imaging capabilities of tomographic optoacoustic imaging. Methods: Herein, a method for simplification and acceleration of model-based inversions, relying on inherent symmetries present in common tomographic acquisition geometries, has been introduced. The method is showcased for the case of cylindrical symmetries by using polar image discretization of the time-domain optoacoustic forward model combined with efficient storage and inversion strategies. Results: The suggested methodology is shown to render fast and accurate model-based inversions in both numerical simulations andpost mortem small animal experiments. In case of a full-view detection scheme, the memory requirements are reduced by one order of magnitude while high-resolution reconstructions are achieved at video rate. Conclusions: By considering the rotational symmetry present in many tomographic optoacoustic imaging systems, the proposed methodology allows exploiting the advantages of model-based algorithms with feasible computational requirements and fast reconstruction times, so that its convenience and general applicability in optoacoustic imaging systems with tomographic symmetries is anticipated.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Effects of ray profile modeling on resolution recovery in clinical CT

Purpose: Iterative image reconstruction gains more and more interest in clinical routine, as it promises to reduce image noise (and thereby patient dose), to reduce artifacts, or to improve spatial resolution. However, among vendors and researchers, there is no consensus of how to best achieve these goals. The authors are focusing on the aspect of geometric ray profile modeling, which is realized by some algorithms, while others model the ray as a straight line. The authors incorporate ray-modeling (RM) in nonregularized iterative reconstruction. That means, instead of using one simple single needle beam to represent the x-ray, the authors evaluate the double integral of attenuation path length over the finite source distribution and the finite detector element size in the numerical forward projection. Our investigations aim at analyzing the resolution recovery (RR) effects of RM. Resolution recovery means that frequencies can be recovered beyond the resolution limit of the imaging system. In order to evaluate, whether clinical CT images can benefit from modeling the geometrical properties of each x-ray, the authors performed a 2D simulation study of a clinical CT fan-beam geometry that includes the precise modeling of these geometrical properties. Methods: All simulations and reconstructions are performed in native fan-beam geometry. A water phantom with resolution bar patterns and a Forbild thorax phantom with circular resolution patterns representing calcifications in the heart region are simulated. An FBP reconstruction with a Ram–Lak kernel is used as a reference reconstruction. The FBP is compared to iterative reconstruction techniques with and without RM: An ordered subsets convex (OSC) algorithm without any RM (OSC), an OSC where the forward projection is modeled concerning the finite focal spot and detector size (OSC-RM) and an OSC with RM and with a matched forward and backprojection pair (OSC-T-RM, T for transpose). In all cases, noise was matched to be able to focus on comparing spatial resolution. The authors use two different simulation settings. Both are based on the geometry of a typical clinical CT system (0.7 mm detector element size at isocenter, 1024 projections per rotation). Setting one has an exaggerated source width of 5.0 mm. Setting two has a realistically small source width of 0.5 mm. The authors also investigate the transition from setting one to two. To quantify image quality, the authors analyze line profiles through the resolution patterns to define a contrast factor (CF) for contrast-resolution plots, and the authors compare the normalized cross-correlation (NCC) with respect to the ground truth of the circular resolution patterns. To independently analyze whether RM is of advantage, the authors implemented several iterative reconstruction algorithms: The statistical iterative reconstruction algorithm OSC, the ordered subsets simultaneous algebraic reconstruction technique (OSSART) and another statistical iterative reconstruction algorithm, denoted with ordered subsets maximum likelihood (OSML) algorithm. All algorithms were implemented both without RM (denoted as OSC, OSSART, and OSML) and with RM (denoted as OSC-RM, OSSART-RM, and OSML-RM). Results: For the unrealistic case of a 5.0 mm focal spot the CF can be improved by a factor of two due to RM: the 4.2 LP/cm bar pattern, which is the first bar pattern that cannot be resolved without RM, can be easily resolved with RM. For the realistic case of a 0.5 mm focus, all results show approximately the same CF. The NCC shows no significant dependency on RM when the source width is smaller than 2.0 mm (as in clinical CT). From 2.0 mm to 5.0 mm focal spot size increasing improvements can be observed with RM. Conclusions: Geometric RM in iterative reconstruction helps improving spatial resolution, if the ray cross-section is significantly larger than the ray sampling distance. In clinical CT, however, the ray is not much thicker than the distance between neighboring ray centers, as the focal spot size is small and detector crosstalk is negligible, due to reflective coatings between detector elements. Therefore,RM appears not to be necessary in clinical CT to achieve resolution recovery.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vitality models found useful in modeling tag-failure times in acoustic-tag survival studies

Abstract Acoustic telemetry studies often rely on the assumption that premature tag failure does not affect the validity of inferences. However, in some cases this assumption is possibly or likely invalid and it is necessary to apply a correction to estimation procedures. The question of which approaches and specific models are best suited to modeling acoustic tag failures has received little research attention. In this short communication, we present a meta-analysis of 42 acoustic tag-life studies, originally used to correct survival studies involving outmigrating juvenile salmonids in the Columbia/Snake river basin. We compare the performance of nine alternative parametric models including common failure–time/survival models and the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013). The tag-life studies used acoustic tags from three different tag manufacturers, had expected lifetimes between 12 and 61 days, and had dry weights ranging from 0.22 to 1.65 g. In 57% of the cases, the vitality models of Li and Anderson Theor Popul Biol 76:118–131, (2009) and Demogr Res 28:341–372, (2013) fit the tag-failure times best. The vitality models were also the second-best choices in 17% of the cases. Together, the vitality models, log-logistic, (19%), and gamma models (14%) accounted for 90% of the models selected. Unlike more traditional failure–time models (e.g., Weibull, Gompertz, gamma, and log-logistic), the vitality models are capable of characterizing both the early onset of tag failure due to manufacturing errors and the anticipated battery life. We provide further guidance on appropriate sample sizes (50–100 tags) and procedures to be considered when applying precise tag-life corrections in release–recapture survival studies.

Skalski, John R. (ORCID:0000000270702505)↗