NASA NTRS1993
An averaged time series for the surface data for the 15 x 15 km FIFE site was prepared for the summer of 1987. Comparisons with 48-hr forecasts from the ECMWF model for extended periods in July, August, and October 1987 identified model errors in the incoming SW radiation in clear skies, the ground heat flux, the formulation of surface evaporation, the soil-moisture model, and the entrainment at boundary-layer top. The model clear-sky SW flux is too high at the surface by 5-10 percent. The ground heat flux is too large by a factor of 2 to 3 because of the large thermal capacity of the first soil layer (which is 7 cm thick), and a time truncation error. The surface evaporation was near zero in October 1987, rather than of order 70 W/sq m at noon. The surface evaporation falls too rapidly after rainfall, with a time-scale of a few days rather than the 7-10 d (or more) of the observations. On time-scales of more than a few days the specified 'climate layer' soil moisture, rather than the storage of precipitation, has a large control on the evapotranspiration. The boundary-layer-top entrainment is too low. This results in a moist bias in the boundary-layer mixing ratio of order 2 g/Kg in forecasts from an experimental analysis with nearly realistic surface fluxes; this because there is insufficient downward mixing of dry air.