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At least 415 records · Page 23

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

Assessment of the importance of spatial scale in long-term land use modelling of the Midwestern United States

The purpose of this study is to assess the value of enhanced spatial resolution in the agriculture and land use component of an integrated assessment model. While these models have historically represented land use decisions at the scale of geopolitical regions, the present generation uses regions defined by climatic or environmental characteristics, to better represent the spatial heterogeneity of land productivity and potential uses. However, increasing a model’s spatial resolution incurs costs, including input data processing, structural modifications, increased run time, and increased complexity of results. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to analyze land use in the Midwestern United States in three levels of sub-regional aggregation and three scenarios of future climate mitigation. We demonstrate benefits of enhanced spatial resolution, and to facilitate the assessment of higher resolution model output we apply non-metric multidimensional scaling on a pair-wise distance matrix for visualization and analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Assimilation of L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations from SMAP and SMOS into the Catchment Land Surface Model and Contribution to the Skill of Soil Moisture Estimates

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) missions provide global observations of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations at a resolution of ~40 km every 2-3 days. These observations have been available since 2015 from SMAP and since 2010 from SMOS.Soil moisture estimates from the separate assimilation of SMAP and SMOS Tb observations into land surface models were previously shown to improve over model-only estimates, thereby demonstrating the value of assimilating L-band Tb observations for soil moisture estimation. The assimilation experiments documented in the literature do not, however, establish whether the joint assimilation of SMAP and SMOS Tbs improves the skill of the resulting soil moisture estimates beyond what can be achieved with either set of observations alone. Moreover, because the published SMAP and SMOS results used different assimilation systems and configurations and applied different evaluation data and procedures, it is unclear whether the assimilation of SMAP-only or SMOS-only Tbs results in better soil moisture skill. In this presentation, we compare the results of three separate assimilation experiments for the period from April 2015 to present. The experiments utilize the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) algorithm, which assimilates L-band Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Specifically, the three experiments presented here assimilate (i) SMAP Tbs only, as in the L4_SM product, (ii) SMOS Tbs only, after interpolation of 40° incidence angle, and (iii) both SMAP and SMOS Tbs. In all other respects, the configuration of three experiments is identical, as is the validation of the output. Preliminary results suggest that the joint assimilation of SMAP and SMOS Tbs yields the most skillful soil moisture estimates when compared to independent in situ measurements. Moreover, the skill of the SMAP-only assimilation exceeds that of the SMOS-only assimilation. The presentation provides an in-depth evaluation of the skill of the assimilation estimates vs. independent in situ and satellite measurements and in terms of statistics of the observation-minus-forecast residuals and analysis increments.

Reichle, Rolf↗

A GRACE ‐based assessment of interannual groundwater dynamics in the C ommunity L and M odel

Abstract The estimation of groundwater storage variations is important for quantifying available water resources and managing storage surpluses to alleviate storage deficiencies during droughts. This is particularly true in semi‐arid regions, where multiyear droughts can be common. To complement the local information provided by soil moisture and well level measurements, land models such as the Community Land Model (CLM) can be used to simulate regional scale water storage variations. CLM includes a bulk aquifer model to simulate saturated water storage dynamics below the model soil column. Aquifer storage increases when it receives recharge from the overlying soil column, and decreases due to lateral flow (i.e., base flow) and capillary rise. In this study, we examine the response of the CLM aquifer model to transitions between low and high recharge inputs, and show that the model simulates unrealistic long‐period behavior relative to total water storage (TWS) observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We attribute the model's poor response to large wetting events to the lack of a finite lower boundary in the bulk aquifer model. We show that by removing the bulk aquifer model and adding a zero‐flux boundary condition at the base of the soil column, good agreement with GRACE observations can be achieved. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of simulated total water storage to the depth at which the zero‐flux boundary is applied, i.e., the thickness of the soil column. Based on comparisons to GRACE, an optimal soil thickness map is constructed. Simulations using the modified CLM with the derived soil thickness map are shown to perform as well or better than standard CLM simulations. The improvements in simulated, climatically induced, long‐period water storage variability will reduce the uncertainty in GRACE‐based estimates of anthropogenic groundwater depletion.

Swenson, S. C.↗

Increasing Functional Diversity in a Global Land Surface Model Illustrates Uncertainties Related to Parameter Simplification

Abstract Simulations of the land surface carbon cycle typically compress functional diversity into a small set of plant functional types (PFT), with parameters defined by the average value of measurements of functional traits. In most earth system models, all wild plant life is represented by between five and 14 PFTs and a typical grid cell (≈100 × 100 km) may contain a single PFT. Model logic applied to this coarse representation of ecological functional diversity provides a reasonable proxy for the carbon cycle, but does not capture the non‐linear influence of functional traits on productivity. Here we show through simulations using the Energy Exascale Land Surface Model in 15 diverse terrestrial landscapes, that better accounting for functional diversity markedly alters predicted total carbon uptake. The shift in carbon uptake is as great as 30% and 10% in boreal and tropical regions, respectively, when compared to a single PFT parameterized with the trait means. The traits that best predict gross primary production vary based on vegetation phenology, which broadly determines where traits fall within the global distribution. Carbon uptake is more closely associated with specific leaf area for evergreen PFTs and the leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio in deciduous PFTs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Insights Into the Hydrology of the Congo Peatlands Through Land Surface Modeling and Data Assimilation

The 16.8 million ha of peatlands in the Cuvette Centrale wetland complex in the Congo Basin is one of the largest peatland regions on Earth but still highly understudied. Understanding the hydrological functioning of these peatlands and the effects of external disturbances thereon remains a major challenge. Recent research suggested fundamental hydrological differences between the Congo peatlands and the well-studied Southeast Asian peatlands. The Congo peatlands have a doming gradient that is up to ten times smaller, and they are influenced by river hydrology to some extent. In this study, we explore the Congo peatland hydrology through land surface modeling and data assimilation. We build upon our recently developed tropical PEATCLSM module (Apers et al., 2022) that was parameterized based on data from Southeast Asian peatlands due to the lack of field data from other tropical peatland regions. In a first step, we derive Congo-specific peat hydraulic and discharge function parameters from a scalar parametrization of water level dynamics in the Congo peatlands, using observed water level data at two locations. These Congo-specific parameters differ considerably from the original literature-based parameters from Southeast Asian peatlands. In a second step, we apply our original and Congo-specific parameters in an assimilation scheme for L-band brightness temperature (Tb) data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The data assimilation results are used in two ways. First, the effect of these parameters on the simulated peatland hydrology and the observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals is evaluated. It is hypothesized that the new parameters reduce the previously reported modeling errors over the Congo peatlands and reduce the residuals in Tb as well. Second, we analyze the data assimilation diagnostics to learn about other model improvement possibilities. In preliminary results, we found long periods of temporally autocorrelated total water storage increments (difference of pre- and post-update) that coincided with anomalies in river stages measured upstream of the peatlands. Since PEATLCSM neglects possible river influence, this concurrence suggests that the typically used grid-based approach of land surface models should be combined with a river routing scheme over the Congo peatlands.

Sebastian Apers↗

ILAMBv2.7 benchmarking results comparing E3SMv2.1 land-atmosphere coupled (BGCv2LNDATM) and stand alone land (ELM) simulations with CMIP6 emission driven historical simulations

This dataset contains land model benchmarking results for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 (E3SMv2.1), including outputs from both coupled biogeochemistry simulations and stand-alone land model simulations. These results are compared against several emission-driven historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Benchmarking was conducted using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, version 2.7 (ILAMBv2.7). CMIP6 model outputs were sourced from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), while the E3SMv2.1 results were derived from raw model outputs. These outputs underwent processing steps such as time serialization, conservative regridding, and data standardization to ensure comparability. For spatial interpolation, the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) tool, ESMF_RegridWeightGen, was employed to generate regridding weights, enabling the transformation of E3SM’s native cubed-sphere grid to a regular latitude-longitude grid.

Feng, Sha [PNNL]↗

Lineage-based functional types: characterising functional diversity to enhance the representation of ecological behaviour in Land Surface Models

Process-based vegetation models attempt to represent the wide range of trait variation in biomes by grouping ecologically similar species into plant functional types (PFTs). This approach has been successful in representing many aspects of plant physiology and biophysics but struggles to capture biogeographic history and ecological dynamics that determine biome boundaries and plant distributions. Grass-dominated ecosystems are broadly distributed across all vegetated continents and harbour large functional diversity, yet most Land Surface Models (LSMs) summarise grasses into two generic PFTs based primarily on differences between temperate C 3 grasses and (sub)tropical C 4 grasses. Incorporation of species-level trait variation is an active area of research to enhance the ecological realism of PFTs, which form the basis for vegetation processes and dynamics in LSMs. Using reported measurements, we developed grass functional trait values (physiological, structural, biochemical, anatomical, phenological, and disturbance-related) of dominant lineages to improve LSM representations. In this work, our method is fundamentally different from previous efforts, as it uses phylogenetic relatedness to create lineage-based functional types (LFTs), situated between species-level trait data and PFT-level abstractions, thus providing a realistic representation of functional diversity and opening the door to the development of new vegetation models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land Surface Modeling 2.0 for agricultural climate change impact assessments

Focus Area: This white paper addresses DOE AI4ESP focus area #2 by providing a sketch blueprint for a next generation, hybrid AI/process-based global Land Surface Modeling (LSM) framework to improve projections of climate change impacts on the land surface system including agriculture and the hydrological cycle. Science Challenge: Climate change impacts on agriculture are highly uncertain: -50% to +150% global production changes for major grains under high-end climate change, for example. The core challenge in land surface system predictability is the large gap between the scale at which the relevant biological processes act and the scale at which the risks need to be assessed. Conventional empirical and process-based modeling approaches are insufficient. A new multi-scale modeling paradigm which employs AI/ML to learn from new streams of remote sensing data and targeted ’gene-to-global’ simulations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First Attempt of Global-scale Assimilation of Subdaily Scale Soil Moisture Estimates from CYGNSS and SMAP into a Land Surface Model

Soil moisture performs a key function in the hydrologic process and understanding the global-scale water cycle. However, estimations of soil moisture taken from current sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) satellites are limited in that they are neither spatially nor temporally continuous. This limitation creates discontinuous soil moisture observation from space and hampers our understanding of the fundamental processes that control the surface hydrologic cycle across both time and space domains. Here, we propose to use frequent soil moisture observations from NASA’s constellation of eight micro-satellites called the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System(CYGNSS) together with the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) to assimilate subdaily-scale soil moisture intoa land surface model(LSM). Our results, which are based on triple collocation analysis(TCA), show how current scientific advances in satellite systems can fill previous gaps in soil moisture observations in subdaily scale bypast observations, and eventually adds value to improvements in global scale soil moisture estimates in LSMs. Overall, TCA-based fractional mean square errors (fMSE) of LSM soil moisture are improved by 61% with the synergetic assimilation of CYGNSS data with SMAP soil moisture observations. However, assimilating satellite-based soil moisture over dense vegetation areas can degrade the performance of LSMs as these areas propagate erroneous soil moisture information to LSMs. To our knowledge, this study isthe first global assimilation of GNSS-based soil moisture observations in land surface models.

Hyunglok Kim↗

Using a Support Vector Machine and a Land Surface Model to Estimate Large-Scale Passive Microwave Temperatures over Snow-Covered Land in North America

A support vector machine (SVM), a machine learning technique developed from statistical learning theory, is employed for the purpose of estimating passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures over snow-covered land in North America as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) satellite sensor. The capability of the trained SVM is compared relative to the artificial neural network (ANN) estimates originally presented in [14]. The results suggest the SVM outperforms the ANN at 10.65 GHz, 18.7 GHz, and 36.5 GHz for both vertically and horizontally-polarized PMW radiation. When compared against daily AMSR-E measurements not used during the training procedure and subsequently averaged across the North American domain over the 9-year study period, the root mean squared error in the SVM output is 8 K or less while the anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.7 or greater. When compared relative to the results from the ANN at any of the six frequency and polarization combinations tested, the root mean squared error was reduced by more than 18 percent while the anomaly correlation coefficient was increased by more than 52 percent. Further, the temporal and spatial variability in the modeled brightness temperatures via the SVM more closely agrees with that found in the original AMSR-E measurements. These findings suggest the SVM is a superior alternative to the ANN for eventual use as a measurement operator within a data assimilation framework.

Modeling↗

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Pielke, Roger↗

Nitrification, denitrification, and competition for soil N : Evaluation of two Earth System Models against observations

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) have implemented nitrogen (N) cycles to account for N limitation on terrestrial carbon uptake. However, representing inputs, losses, and recycling of N in ESMs is challenging. Here, we use global rates and ratios of key soil N fluxes, including nitrification, denitrification, mineralization, leaching, immobilization, and plant uptake (both NH 4 + and NO 3 − ), from the literature to evaluate the N cycles in the land model components of two ESMs. The two land models evaluated here, E3SM Land Model version 1 (ELMv1)‐ECA and CLM5.0, originated from a common model but have diverged in their representation of plant–microbe competition for soil N. The models predict similar global rates of gross primary productivity (GPP) but have approximately two‐fold to three‐fold differences in their underlying global mineralization, immobilization, plant N uptake, nitrification, and denitrification fluxes. Both models dramatically underestimate the immobilization of NO 3 − by soil bacteria compared with literature values and predict dominance of plant uptake by a single form of mineral nitrogen (NO 3 − for ELM, with regional exceptions, and NH 4 + for CLM5.0). CLM5.0 strongly underestimates the global ratio of gross nitrification:gross mineralization and both models are likely to substantially underestimate the ratio of nitrification:denitrification. Few experimental data exist to evaluate this last ratio, in part because nitrification and denitrification are quantified using different techniques and because denitrification fluxes are difficult to measure at all. More observational constraints on soil nitrogen fluxes such as nitrification and denitrification, as well as greater scrutiny of the functional impact of introducing separate NH 4 + and NO 3 − pools into ESMs, could help to improve confidence in present and future simulations of N limitation on the carbon cycle.

Nevison, Cynthia↗

Vegetation biogeography is a main source of uncertainty in modelling the land carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere exchanges a large amount of CO 2 with the atmosphere through photosynthesis and respiration, determining the magnitude of land carbon sink and consequently influencing the rate of global warming. The magnitudes of global photosynthesis and respiration, however, vary widely across models (100-200 PgC/year), constituting a key and persistent source of uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate modelling. Here, we argue that the uncertainty in the land carbon cycle modelling is largely attributable to the uncertainty in biogeography – the distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). Using an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), we find a strong dependence of total photosynthesis on total area for each PFT. The dependence allows us to reduce the spread of land carbon cycle estimates by ~75% using remote sensing-based PFT maps. We further find that 56 ± 21% of climate-driven changes in global photosynthesis modelled by DGVMs are caused by changes in PFT distribution in the last two decades. Our study identifies vegetation biogeography as a main controlling factor of uncertainty in land carbon cycle modelling and highlights the importance of biogeography-climate interactions in carbon cycle and climate studies.

Zhao, Ruiying [National Univ. of Singapore (Singap↗

Groundwater Recharge Estimated by Land Surface Models: An Evaluation in the Conterminous U.S.

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous U.S. simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1-3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

snowmelt↗

A Global Assessment of Added Value in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product Relative to Its Baseline Land Surface Model

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-4 product provides enhanced soil moisture estimates by assimilating SMAP brightness temperature observations into a land surface model. Here, an unbiased qualitative estimate of the relative skill of SMAP Level-4 and model-only surface soil moisture (versus true soil moisture) is derived using only one additional noisy (but independent) soil moisture product. The method is applied globally and verified using high-quality, ground-based measurements where available. Results demonstrate that assimilating SMAP brightness temperature has relatively little impact in data-rich areas like the United States and Europe. In contrast, much larger improvement is observed in data-sparse regions, including much of Africa and central Australia, where model-only simulations are disproportionately impacted by low-quality model forcing. Therefore, ground validation conducted in data-rich areas does not adequately sample the added value of SMAP data assimilation for data-sparse regions and substantially underestimates the added skill provided by the SMAP Level-4 system.

SMAP L4↗

Do land surface models need to include differential plant species responses to drought? Examining model predictions across a mesic-xeric gradient in Europe

Future climate change has the potential to increase drought in many regions of the globe, making it essential that land surface models (LSMs) used in coupled climate models realistically capture the drought responses of vegetation. Recent data syntheses show that drought sensitivity varies considerably among plants from different climate zones, but state-of-the-art LSMs currently assume the same drought sensitivity for all vegetation. We tested whether variable drought sensitivities are needed to explain the observed large-scale patterns of drought impact on the carbon, water and energy fluxes. We implemented data-driven drought sensitivities in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) LSM and evaluated alternative sensitivities across a latitudinal gradient in Europe during the 2003 heatwave. The model predicted an overly abrupt onset of drought unless average soil water potential was calculated with dynamic weighting across soil layers. We found that high drought sensitivity at the most mesic sites, and low drought sensitivity at the most xeric sites, was necessary to accurately model responses during drought. Furthermore, our results indicate that LSMs will over-estimate drought impacts in drier climates unless different sensitivity of vegetation to drought is taken into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Novel Representation of Leaf Phenology Improves Simulation of Amazonian Evergreen Forest Photosynthesis in a Land Surface Model

Leaf phenology in the humid tropics largely regulates the seasonality of forest carbon and water exchange. However, it is inadequately represented in most global land surface models due to limited understanding of its controls. Based on intensive field studies at four Amazonian evergreen forests, we propose a novel, quantitative representation of tropical forest leaf phenology, which links multiple environmental variables with the seasonality of new leaf production and old leaf litterfall. The new phenology simulates higher rates of leaf turnover (new leaves replacing old leaves) in dry seasons with more sunlight, which is then implemented in ORCHIDEE, together with recent findings of ontogeny-associated photosynthetic capacity, and is evaluated against ground-based measurements of leaf phenology (canopy leaf area index and litterfall), eddy covariance fluxes (photosynthesis and latent heat), and carbon allocations from field observations. Results show the periodical cycles of solar radiation and vapor pressure deficit are the two most important environmental variables that are empirically related to new leaf production and old leaf abscission in tropical evergreen forests. The model with new representation of leaf phenology captures the seasonality of canopy photosynthesis at three out of four sites, as well as the seasonality of litterfall, latent heat, and light use efficiency of photosynthesis at all tested sites, and improves the seasonality of carbon allocations to leaves, roots, and sapwoods. This study advances understanding of the environmental controls on tropical leaf phenology and offers an improved modeling tool for gridded simulations of interannual CO 2 and water fluxes in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗