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DOE OSTI2023

Pynta-An Automated Workflow for Calculation of Surface and Gas-Surface Kinetics

Many important industrial processes rely on heterogeneous catalytic systems. However, given all possible catalysts and conditions of interest, it is impractical to optimize most systems experimentally. Automatically generated microkinetic models can be used to efficiently consider many catalysts and conditions. However, these microkinetic models require accurate estimation of many thermochemical and kinetic parameters. Manually calculating these parameters is tedious and error prone, involving many interconnected computations. Here, we present Pynta, a workflow software for automating the calculation of surface and gas–surface reactions. Pynta takes the reactants, products, and atom maps for the reactions of interest, generates sets of initial guesses for all species and saddle points, runs all optimizations, frequency, and IRC calculations, and computes the associated thermochemistry and rate coefficients. It is able to consider all unique adsorption configurations for both adsorbates and saddle points, allowing it to handle high index surfaces and bidentate species. Pynta implements a new saddle point guess generation method called harmonically forced saddle point searching (HFSP). HFSP defines harmonic potentials based on the optimized adsorbate geometries and which bonds are breaking and forming that allow initial placements to be optimized using the GFN1-xTB semiempirical method to create reliable saddle point guesses. This method is reaction class agnostic and fast, allowing Pynta to consider all possible adsorbate site placements efficiently. We demonstrate Pynta on 11 diverse reactions involving monodenate, bidentate, and gas-phase species, many distinct reaction classes, and both a low and a high index facet of Cu. Our results suggest that it is very important to consider reactions between adsorbates adsorbed in all unique configurations for interadsorbate group transfers and reactions on high index surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interfacial Electromechanics Predicts Phase Behavior of 2D Hybrid Halide Perovskites

Quasi-two-dimensional (2D) mixed-cation hybrid halide perovskites (A' 2 A N–1 M N X 3N+1 ; A' = large organic molecule with cationic group, A = [Cs + , CH 3 NH 3 + , HC(NH 2 ) 2 + ], M = [Pb, Sn, Ge], X = [I – , Br – , Cl – ]) have rapidly emerged as candidates to improve the structural stability and device lifetime of 3D perovskite semiconductor devices under operating conditions. The addition of the large A' cation to the traditional AMX 3 structure introduces several synthetic degrees of freedom and breaks M–X bonds, giving rise to peculiar critical phase behavior in the phase space of these complex materials. In this work, we propose a thermodynamic model parametrized by first-principles calculations to generate the phase diagram of 2D and quasi-2D perovskites (q-2DPKs) based on the mechanics and electrostatics of the interface between the A' cations and the metal halide octahedral network. Focusing on the most commonly studied methylammonium lead iodide system where A' is n-butylammonium (BA; CH 3 (CH 2 ) 3 NH 3 + ), we find that the apparent difficulty in synthesizing phase-pure samples with a stoichiometric index N > 5 can be attributed to the energetic competition between repulsion of opposing interfacial dipole layers and mechanical relaxation induced by interfacial stress. Our model shows quantitative agreement with experimental observations of the maximum phase-pure stoichiometric index (N crit ) and explains the nonmonotonic evolution of the lattice parameters with increasing stoichiometric index (N). This model is generalizable to the entire family of q-2DPKs and can guide the design of photovoltaic and optical materials that combine the structural stability of the q-2DPKs while retaining the charge carrier properties of their 3D counterparts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Earlier Ecological Drought Detection by Involving the Interaction of Phenology and Eco-Physiological Function

Meteorological drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) are frequently used to diagnose “ecological drought,” despite the fact that they were not explicitly designed for this purpose. More recently developed indices like the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which is based on the degree of coupling between actual to potential evapotranspiration, may better capture dynamic plant response to moisture limitations. However, the skill of these indices at describing plant water stress is rarely evaluated at sub-seasonal timescales over which drought evolves. Moreover, it remains unclear how variability in phenological timing impacts and complicates early drought detection. Here, we compared the ability of ESI and SPEI to reflect the dynamics of ecological drought in forests and grasslands, based on anomalies of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), surface conductance (G s , a proxy for stomatal conductance), soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. ESI performed better than SPEI in capturing the dynamics of GPP and G s , but still missed early ecological drought signals due to biases linked to earlier onset of spring leaf development. Thus, we developed a modified variant of the ESI (ESI LAI ) that accounts for the complicating effects of phenological shifts in leaf area index (LAI). The ESI LAI detected drought onset up to 7–10 weeks earlier than SPEI and ESI. Additionally, drought onset dates determined from ESI LAI are close to (±2 weeks) the dates determined from LAI-corrected anomalies of G s , and GPP, as well as the onset dates of soil water deficit and atmospheric aridity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis

Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Formation of open ruthenium branched structures with highly exposed active sites for oxygen evolution reaction electrocatalysis

The formation of exposed active sites that have high activity and stability for oxygen evolution reaction (OER) catalysis is a significant opportunity for improving water electrolysers. Low-index facets surface Ru can achieve both high activity and stability for OER. Here, we present a new catalyst design where low-index faceted Ru branches are grown off the corners of Pt nanocubes, forming open Ru branched nanoparticles. This open branched structure, exposing low-index facets on its length-tunable branch, enables a high electrochemically active surface area (ECSA), achieving high activity and stability for OER. This design strategy and synthetic control provide a principle for achieving high-performance OER nanocatalysts.

Xiao, Sa [The University of New South Wales, Sydne↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results - IV. Diffuse component separation

We present full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and polarized synchrotron and thermal dust emission, derived from the third set of Planck frequency maps. These products have significantly lower contamination from instrumental systematic effects than previous versions. The methodologies used to derive these maps follow closely those described in earlier papers, adopting four methods (Commander, NILC, SEVEM, and SMICA) to extract the CMB component, as well as three methods (Commander, GNILC, and SMICA) to extract astrophysical components. Our revised CMB temperature maps agree with corresponding products in the Planck 2015 delivery, whereas the polarization maps exhibit significantly lower large-scale power, reflecting the improved data processing described in companion papers; however, the noise properties of the resulting data products are complicated, and the best available end-to-end simulations exhibit relative biases with respect to the data at the few percent level. Using these maps, we are for the first time able to fit the spectral index of thermal dust independently over 3° regions. We derive a conservative estimate of the mean spectral index of polarized thermal dust emission of β d = 1.55 ± 0.05, where the uncertainty marginalizes both over all known systematic uncertainties and different estimation techniques. For polarized synchrotron emission, we find a mean spectral index of β s = -3.1 ± 0.1, consistent with previously reported measurements. We note that the current data processing does not allow for construction of unbiased single-bolometer maps, and this limits our ability to extract CO emission and correlated components. The foreground results for intensity derived in this paper therefore do not supersede corresponding Planck 2015 products. For polarization the new results supersede the corresponding 2015 products in all respects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow to compare these models can help to describe and explain differences in model projections. This also increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler et al., 2015). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index (RAI), emission reduction type index (ERT), inertia timescale (IT), fossil fuel reduction (FFR), transformation index (TI) and cost per abatement value (CAV). We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, including both older version as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and allows for comparison of model versions in time. The indicators and their trends can often be explained in terms of model characteristics and changes. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide an useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend across the different models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2025

Axion Mass Prediction from Adaptive Mesh Refinement Cosmological Lattice Simulations

The quantum chromodynamics (QCD) axion arises as the pseudo-Goldstone mode of a spontaneously broken Abelian Peccei-Quinn (PQ) symmetry. If the scale of PQ symmetry breaking occurs below the inflationary reheat temperature and the domain wall number is unity, then there is a unique axion mass that gives the observed dark matter (DM) abundance. Computing this mass has been the subject of intensive numerical simulations for decades since the mass prediction informs laboratory experiments. Axion strings develop below the PQ symmetry-breaking temperature, and as the string network evolves, it emits axions that go on to become the DM. A key ingredient in the axion mass prediction is the spectral index of axion radiation emitted by the axion strings. We compute this index in this Letter using the most precise and accurate large-scale simulations to date of the axion-string network leveraging adaptive mesh refinement to achieve the precision that would, otherwise, require a static lattice with 262,144 3 lattice sites. We find a scale-invariant axion radiation spectrum to within 1% precision and find no evidence that the spectral index of radiation evolves with time. Accounting for axion production from strings prior to the QCD phase transition leads us to predict that the axion mass should be approximately 𝑚 𝑎 ∈ (45, 65) μ ⁢eV. However, we provide preliminary evidence that axions are produced in greater quantities from the string-domain-wall network collapse during the QCD phase transition, potentially increasing the mass prediction to as much as 300 μ ⁢eV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing cosmic-ray positron and electron observations to probe the averaged properties of Milky Way pulsars

Pulsars have long been studied in the electromagnetic spectrum. Their environments are rich in high-energy cosmic-ray electrons and positrons likely enriching the interstellar medium with such particles. In this work we use recent cosmic-ray observations from the AMS-02, CALET and DAMPE collaborations to study the averaged properties of the local Milky Way pulsar population. We perform simulations of the local Milky Way pulsar population, for interstellar medium assumptions in agreement with a range of cosmic-ray nuclei measurements. Each such simulation contains $\sim 10^{4}$ pulsars of unique age, location, initial spin-down power and cosmic-ray electron/positron spectra. We produce more than $7 \times 10^3$ such Milky Way pulsar simulations. Further, we account for and study i) the pulsars' birth rates and the stochastic nature of their birth, ii) their initial spin-down power distribution, iii) their time evolution in terms of their braking index and characteristic spin-down timescale, iv) the fraction of spin-down power going to cosmic-ray electrons and positrons and v) their propagation through the interstellar medium and the Heliosphere. We find that pulsars of ages $\sim 10^{5}-10^{7}$ yr, have a braking index that on average has to be 3 or larger. Given that electromagnetic spectrum observations of young pulsars find braking indices lower than 3, our work provides strong hints that pulsars' braking index increases on average as they age, allowing them to retain some of their rotational energy. Moreover, we find that pulsars have relatively uniform properties as sources of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons in terms of the spectra they produce and likely release $O(10\%)$ of their rotational energy to cosmic rays in the ISM. Finally, we find at $\simeq$12 GeV positrons a spectral feature that suggests a new subpopulation of positron sources contributing at these energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evidence for Suppression of Structure Growth in the Concordance Cosmological Model

We present evidence for a suppressed growth rate of large-scale structure during the dark-energy dominated era. Modeling the growth rate of perturbations with the ``growth index'' γ, we find that current cosmological data strongly prefer a higher growth index than the value γ=0.55 predicted by general relativity in a flat ΛCDM cosmology. Both the cosmic microwave background data from Planck and the large-scale structure data from weak lensing, galaxy clustering, and cosmic velocities separately favor growth suppression. When combined, they yield γ = 0.633$^{+0.025}_{–0.024}$, excluding γ = 0.55 at a statistical significance of 3.7σ. The combination of fσ8 and Planck measurements prefers an even higher growth index of γ = 0.639$^{+0.024}_{–0.025}$, corresponding to a 4.2σ-tension with the concordance model. In Planck data, the suppressed growth rate offsets the preference for nonzero curvature and fits the data equally well as the latter model. Furthermore, a higher γ leads to a higher matter fluctuation amplitude S 8 inferred from galaxy clustering and weak lensing measurements, and a lower S 8 from Planck data, effectively resolving the S 8 tension.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Outliers in AI-based Image Compression

Image compression using artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly prevalent across various fields, including scientific research. Scientific instruments can generate hundreds of images per second, and effectively compressing these images with high compression ratios is crucial for facilitating scientific discoveries. However, automatically detecting outlier cases, where compression may not have succeeded or where interesting scientific phenomena are present, poses a significant challenge. To address this, we have developed a methodology based on unsupervised machine learning techniques for detecting outlier compressed images. This methodology utilizes metrics such as peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), structural similarity index measure (SSIM), structural texture similarity index measure (STSIM), and deep image and structural texture similarity index (DISTS). We have evaluated our methodology on several unlabeled datasets, including microscopy and x-ray images, and have successfully identified multiple outlier images using our proposed approach. Furthermore, our approach has enabled us to identify image semantics that are valuable for post-experiment analysis by scientists.

Data Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of rhizosphere bacterial diversity and composition in a metal hyperaccumulator (Boehmeria nivea) and a nonaccumulator (Artemisia annua) in an antimony mine

Abstract Aims Heavy metal hyperaccumulators are widely used in mining restoration due to their ability to accumulate and transport heavy metals, compared to nonaccumulators. Rhizosphere bacteria in metal hyperaccumulators play a key role in the uptake of heavy metals from soil; however, assessments of the differences of rhizosphere bacteria between metal hyperaccumulators and nonaccumulator are scarce. Methods and results To understand the difference of bacterial composition between hyperaccumulator and nonaccumulator in rhizosphere, the diversity and composition of rhizosphere bacteria in a metal hyperaccumulator (Boehmeria nivea) and a nonaccumulator (Artemisia annua) grown in the same field in Xikuangshan were evaluated using Illumina Miseq high-throughput sequencing technology. Boehmeria nivea and A. annua had 3926 overlapping OTUs, 19,736 and 17,579 unique OTUs, respectively. Boehmeria nivea had lower Chao1 index, Shannon index and Pielou index than A. annua. The dominant phyla and genera of rhizosphere bacteria in B. nivea and A. annua were similar, but some rhizosphere bacterial communities with heavy metal remediation ability mainly appeared in the rhizosphere of the hyperaccumulator. Compared to A. annua, B. nivea showed a significantly higher relative abundance of rhizosphere bacteria, such as Acidobacteria and Bacteroidete at the phylum level and RB41 at the genus level. Some specific rhizosphere bacteria with the ability to bind metal, such as Leifsonia and Kibdelosporangium, were only found in the rhizosphere of B. nivea. Conclusion Results indicated that B. nivea, as a metal hyperaccumulator, has a key function in governing metal-resistant rhizosphere bacteria in response to antimony compound pollution stress. Significance and Impact of Study Understanding the diversity of rhizosphere bacteria between hyperaccumulators and nonaccumulators is beneficial to formulate strategies to improve metal uptake efficiency by selecting specific plant species and rhizosphere bacteria grown on polluted soil.

Lin, Yuxiang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of gnomonic distortion on electron backscatter diffraction and transmission Kikuchi diffraction

The effect of gnomonic distortion on orientation indexing of electron backscatter diffraction patterns is explored through simulation of electron diffraction patterns for sample-to-detector geometries associated with transmission Kikuchi diffraction (TKD) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Simulated data were analysed by computing a similarity index for both Hough transformed data and simulated patterns to determine the sensitivity of each method for detecting subtle differences in the effect of gnomonic distortions on electron diffraction patterns. These results indicate that the increased gnomonic distortions in electron diffraction patterns for a TKD geometry enhance the sensitivity for detecting subtle differences in interband angles. Additionally, the utilisation of a Hough transform-based indexing approach further enhances the sensitivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

BPS spectra and 3-manifold invariants

We provide a physical definition of new homological invariants H a (M 3 ) of 3-manifolds (possibly, with knots) labeled by abelian flat connections. The physical system in question involves a 6d fivebrane theory on M 3 times a 2-disk, D 2 , whose Hilbert space of BPS states plays the role of a basic building block in categorification of various partition functions of 3d N = 2 theory T[M 3 ]: D 2 × S 1 half-index, S 2 × S 1 superconformal index, and S 2 × S 1 topologically twisted index. The first partition function is labeled by a choice of boundary condition and provides a refinement of Chern–Simons (WRT) invariant. A linear combination of them in the unrefined limit gives the analytically continued WRT invariant of M 3 . The last two can be factorized into the product of half-indices. Here, we show how this works explicitly for many examples, including Lens spaces, circle fibrations over Riemann surfaces, and plumbed 3-manifolds.

3-manifold↗

DOE OSTI2020

Google Health Trends performance reflecting dengue incidence for the Brazilian states

Abstract Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti and mainly found in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Since its re-introduction in 1986, Brazil has become a hotspot for dengue and has experienced yearly epidemics. As a notifiable infectious disease, Brazil uses a passive epidemiological surveillance system to collect and report cases; however, dengue burden is underestimated. Thus, Internet data streams may complement surveillance activities by providing real-time information in the face of reporting lags. Methods We analyzed 19 terms related to dengue using Google Health Trends (GHT), a free-Internet data-source, and compared it with weekly dengue incidence between 2011 to 2016. We correlated GHT data with dengue incidence at the national and state-level for Brazil while using the adjusted R squared statistic as primary outcome measure (0/1). We used survey data on Internet access and variables from the official census of 2010 to identify where GHT could be useful in tracking dengue dynamics. Finally, we used a standardized volatility index on dengue incidence and developed models with different variables with the same objective. Results From the 19 terms explored with GHT, only seven were able to consistently track dengue. From the 27 states, only 12 reported an adjusted R squared higher than 0.8; these states were distributed mainly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South of Brazil. The usefulness of GHT was explained by the logarithm of the number of Internet users in the last 3 months, the total population per state, and the standardized volatility index. Conclusions The potential contribution of GHT in complementing traditional established surveillance strategies should be analyzed in the context of geographical resolutions smaller than countries. For Brazil, GHT implementation should be analyzed in a case-by-case basis. State variables including total population, Internet usage in the last 3 months, and the standardized volatility index could serve as indicators determining when GHT could complement dengue state level surveillance in other countries.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-modal characterisation of early-stage, subclinical cardiac deterioration in patients with type 2 diabetes

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major risk factor for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and cardiac arrhythmias. Precursors of these complications, such as diabetic cardiomyopathy, remain incompletely understood and underdiagnosed. Detection of early signs of cardiac deterioration in T2DM patients is critical for prevention. Our goal is to quantify T2DM-driven abnormalities in ECG and cardiac imaging biomarkers leading to cardiovascular disease. Methods We quantified ECG and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers in two matched cohorts of 1781 UK Biobank participants, with and without T2DM, and no diagnosed cardiovascular disease at the time of assessment. We performed a pair-matched cross-sectional study to compare cardiac biomarkers in both cohorts, and examined the association between T2DM and these biomarkers. We built multivariate multiple linear regression models sequentially adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and clinical covariates. Results Participants with T2DM had a higher resting heart rate (66 vs. 61 beats per minute,p < 0.001), longer QTc interval (424 vs. 420ms,p < 0.001), reduced T wave amplitude (0.33 vs. 0.37mV,p < 0.001), lower stroke volume (72 vs. 78ml,p < 0.001) and thicker left ventricular wall (6.1 vs. 5.9mm,p < 0.001) despite a decreased Sokolow-Lyon index (19.1 vs. 20.2mm,p < 0.001). T2DM was independently associated with higher heart rate (beta = 3.11, 95% CI = [2.11,4.10],p < 0.001), lower stroke volume (beta = −4.11, 95% CI = [−6.03, −2.19],p < 0.001) and higher left ventricular wall thickness (beta = 0.133, 95% CI = [0.081,0.186],p < 0.001). Trends were consistent in subgroups of different sex, age and body mass index. Fewer significant differences were observed in participants of non-white ethnic background. QRS duration and Sokolow-Lyon index showed a positive association with the development of cardiovascular disease in cohorts with and without T2DM, respectively. A higher left ventricular mass and wall thickness were associated with cardiovascular outcomes in both groups. Conclusion T2DM prior to cardiovascular disease was linked with a higher heart rate, QTc prolongation, T wave amplitude reduction, as well as lower stroke volume and increased left ventricular wall thickness. Increased QRS duration and left ventricular wall thickness and mass were most strongly associated with future cardiovascular disease. Although subclinical, these changes may indicate the presence of autonomic dysfunction and diabetic cardiomyopathy. Graphical Abstract

Cardiovascular System & Cardiology↗