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At least 415 records · Page 23

Coherent Modes of Global SST and Summer Rainfall over China: An Assessment of the Regional Impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino/ La Nina

In this paper, we have identified three principal modes of summertime rainfall variability over China and global sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1955-1998. Using these modes, we have assessed the impact of the El Nino/La Nina on major drought and flood occurrence over China during 1997-1998. The first mode can be identified with the growth phase of El Nino superimposed on a linear warming trend since the mid-1950s. This mode strongly influences rainfall over northern China. The second mode comprises of a quasi-biennial tendency manifested in alternate wet and dry years over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) of central China. The third mode is dominated by a quasi-decadal oscillation in eastern China between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. Using a mode-by-mode reconstruction, we evaluate the impacts of the various principal modes on the 1997 and 1998 observed rainfall anomaly. We find that the severe drought in northern China, and to a lesser degree the flood in southern China, in 1997 is likely a result of the influence of anomalous SST forcing during the growth phase of the El Nino. In addition, rainfall in southern China may be influenced by the decadal or long-term SST variability. The severe flood over the Yangtze River Valley in 1998 is associated with the biennial tendency of basin scale SST during the transition from El Nino to La Nina in 1997-98. Additionally, the observed prolonged drought over northern China and increasing flooding over the YRV since the 1950s may be associated with a long-term warming trend in the tropical Indian and western Pacific ocean. During 1997, the El Nino SST exacerbated the drought situation over northern China. In 1998, the drought appeared to get temporary relief from the La Nina anomalous SST forcing.

Lau, K.-M.↗

ATTAP/AGT101 - Year 2 progress in ceramic technology development

The progress made by the Advanced Turbine Technology Applications Project (ATTAP) is summarized, with emphasis on the following areas: ceramic materials assessment and characterization, ceramic impact damage assessment, ceramic combustor evaluation, turbine inlet particle separator development, impact-tolerant turbine designs, and net-shape ceramic component fabrications. In the evolutionary ceramics development in the Automotive Gas Turbine (AGT101) and ATTAP programs initial designs were conceived to reduce stresses by using well-established criteria: bodies of revolution were preferred over nonaxisymmetric geometries, sharp corners were avoided, the contact area between components was kept as large as possible, and small parts were preferred over large when feasible. Projects discussed include: initial ceramic component fabrication by ceramic suppliers in 1990, engine test to 1371 C in 1991, 100-hr test bed engine durability test in 1991, and 300-hr test bed engine durability in 1992.

Kidwell, J. R.↗

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗

Spacecraft hazard and shielding requirements

The elements related to hazard assessment (systems damage criteria, impact damage assessment, and mission success assessment algorithms) of the proposed 10-yr space debris assessment plan were reviewed for validity of the research elements; accuracy of the proposed effort and cost; duration of the task element; and interaction with the other elements of the plan.

Source record↗

AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems in Nioro, Senegal: Representative Agricultural Pathways, Climate, Crop and Economic Datasets

This paper describes the datasets that were used to implement an AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment for the Nioro region of Senegal to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the principal agricultural system in the Senegal peanut basin and to assess adaptations of that system to climate change under current as well as future climate and socio-economic conditions. This dataset includes the Representative Agricultural Pathways developed for Nioro from 2000-2050; the climate data that were used to implement crop yield simulations; the data that were used to parameterize the DSSAT and APSIM crop models, including historical climate data and future climate scenarios; and the data that were used to parameterize the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment (TOAMD) economic simulation model, as well as simulated model outputs.

AgMIP↗

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development: Executive summary

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. For this model, it was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impacts). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics, throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development, volume 1

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. It was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impact). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗

Rail transit fare collection: Policy and technology assessment

The impact of fare policies and fare structure on the selection of equipment was investigated, fare collection systems are described, hardware and technology related problems are documented, and the requirements of a fare collection simulation model are outlined. Major findings include: (1) a wide variation in the fare collection systems and equipment, caused primarily by historical precedence; (2) the reliability of AFC equipment used at BART and WMATA discouraged other properties from considering use of similar equipment; (3) existing equipment may not meet the fare collection needs of properties in the near future; (4) the cost of fare collection operation and maintenance is high; and (5) the relatively small market in fare collection equipment discourages new product development by suppliers. Recommendations for fare collection R&D programs include development of new hardware to meet rail transit needs, study of impacts of alternate fare policies increased communication among policymakers, and consensus on fare policy issues.

Deshpande, G. K.↗

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗

Composite sandwich construction with syntactic foam core - A practical assessment of post-impact damage and residual strength

An account is given of an inspection method that has been successfully used to assess the postimpact damage and residual strength of syntactic (glass microspheres in epoxy matrix) foam-core sandwich panels with hybrid (carbon and glass fiber-reinforced) composite skins, which inherently possess high damage tolerance. SEM establishes that the crushing of the microspheres is responsible for the absorption of most of the impact energy. Damage tolerance is a function of the localization of damage by that high impact energy absorption.

Hiel, C.↗

System Analyses of Pneumatic Technology for High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft

The primary aspiration of this study was to objectively assess the feasibility of the application of a low speed pneumatic technology, in particular Circulation Control (CC) to an HSCT concept. Circulation Control has been chosen as an enabling technology to be applied on a generic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). This technology has been proven for various subsonic vehicles including flight tests on a Navy A-6 and computational application on a Boeing 737. Yet, CC has not been widely accepted for general commercial fixed-wing use but its potential has been extensively investigated for decades in wind tunnels across the globe for application to rotorcraft. More recently, an experimental investigation was performed at Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) with application to an HSCT-type configuration. The data from those experiments was to be applied to a full-scale vehicle to assess the impact from a system level point of view. Hence, this study attempted to quantitatively assess the impact of this technology to an HSCT. The study objective was achieved in three primary steps: 1) Defining the need for CC technology; 2) Wind tunnel data reduction; 3) Detailed takeoff/landing performance assessment. Defining the need for the CC technology application to an HSCT encompassed a preliminary system level analysis. This was accomplished through the utilization of recent developments in modern aircraft design theory at Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL). These developments include the creation of techniques and methods needed for the identification of technical feasibility show stoppers. These techniques and methods allow the designer to rapidly assess a design space and disciplinary metric enhancements to enlarge or improve the design space. The takeoff and landing field lengths were identified as the concept "show-stoppers". Once the need for CC was established, the actual application of data and trends was assessed. This assessment entailed a reduction of the wind tunnel data from the experiments performed by Mr. Bob Englar at the GTRI. Relevant data was identified and manipulated based on the required format of the analysis tools utilized. Propulsive, aerodynamic, duct sizing, and vehicle sizing investigations were performed and information supplied to a detailed takeoff and landing tool, From the assessments, CC was shown to improve the low speed performance metrics, which were previously not satisfied. An HSCT with CC augmentation does show potential for full-scale application. Yet, an economic assessment of an HSCT with and without CC showed that a moderate penalty was incurred from the increased RDT&E costs associated with developing the CC technology and slight increases in empty weight.

Mavris, Dimitri N.↗

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet routinely occur in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya region(HKH) region where many government organizations lack the capacity needed to predict, observe and effectively respond to the threats and hazards associated with high impact convective weather. This project combines innovative numerical weather prediction, satellite-based precipitation and land imagery techniques into a high impact weather assessment toolkit (HIWAT) that will build the capabilities of national meteorological departments and other weather sensitive agencies in the HKH region to assess the potential threats and impacts of high impact convective weather.

Himalayas↗

Quantifying Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence Induced by Reservoir Impoundment Using GRACE, Landsat, and GPS Data

The construction of hydropower dams is a common strategy to support a country's increasing need for electricityand river water management for industry and agriculture. Although the hydrological and geophysical impacts ofwater relocation are usually assessed prior to impoundment, their accuracy is generally limited due to the lack ofin situ observations, especially in a remote area. This study presents a workflow to quantify the terrestrial waterstorage change (TWS) and land subsidence induced by a reservoir's water impoundment using multiple satelliteobservations (GRACE, Landsat), land surface models (CABLE, GLDAS, NCEP, ECMWF), and GPS data. The studysite is the Bakun Dam, located in Sarawak, Malaysia, which is the largest hydropower dam in Southeast Asia.Commencing operation in late 2010, the dam induced a change of water mass and lake surface area that wasclearly observed by GRACE and Landsat observations, respectively. During the 17-month impounding period(from August 2010 to December 2011), GRACE observed a dramatic increase of approximately 200mmequivalent water height, while Landsat detected an increased lake extent of around 600 km2. In this paper, aforward model is developed to determine the increased water surface level corresponding to GRACE observations,estimated to be about 120 m. In contrast to GRACE, the TWS derived from land surface models cannotcapture the increased TWS, due to the lack of reservoir routing algorithms in the models. In addition, the landsubsidence was calculated using the disk load model constructed based on the GRACE-derived lake level andLandsat-derived lake extent; the result is validated with the GPS data from BIN1 station, located at the westerncoast of Borneo. The commencement stage of the Bakun Dam induces the large-scale land subsidence, whichcauses the GPS-BIN1 station to subside by ~9 mm, and move toward the Bakun Lake by ~4 mm. Computation ofthe surface displacements directly from GRACE spherical harmonic coefficient data fails to capture the subsidencefeature, mainly due to the truncation error. Overall, this study demonstrates that evaluating GRACE inconjunction with Landsat, LSMs, and GPS data allows the exploitation of the gravity signal at a much smallerspatial scale than its intrinsic resolution. Benefiting from global coverage, the newly developed satellite-basedalgorithm is a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of reservoir operation on hydrological and geophysicalchanges from local to regional scales.

Tangdamrongsub, Natthachet↗

NWP Impact of Cloud Top and Boundary Layer Winds from a Satellite Borne Lidar: an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Observing systems simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide a powerful tool to assess the impact of proposed satellite borne observing systems on meteorological applications models. We describe the results of an OSSE conducted to assess the impact of data from a low power lidar wind sensor on the forecast accuracy of a global spectral numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Global Data Assimilation System. The instrument would be operating at near-infrared wavelengths thereby increasing the backscatter signal relative to comparable infrared lidar.

Isaacs, R. G.↗

Sudden ionospheric delay decorrelation and its impact on WAAS

We report a methodology for assessing the impact on WAAS posed by a sudden increase in the level of ionospheric disturbance. The methodology is based upon the forming an estimate of the probability P(D) that a WAAS user will confront a sudden increase in the level of ionospheric disturbance following a period of relative calm. By restricting the tabulation of fit residuals to only those fits where the spatial coverage of the fit points is sufficiently good, we have determined a limiting upper bound of P(D) to be 2x10(sup -6).

ionosphere WAAS GPS↗

Charlotte - EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) Human-in-the-Loop Results Briefing to ATD-2 FAA Partners

The Charlotte EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) was the first Human-In-The-Loop experiment under the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-2 (ATD-2) project. The purpose of the study was fourfold: 1) to establish a simulation environment (Charlotte) for airspace operations for ATD-2 technology, 2) to simulate current-day departures and arrival operations, 3) to assess the impact of current Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) on Charlotte (CLT) departure flows and en route operations in Washington (ZDC) and Atlanta Centers (ZTL), and 4) to assess the impact of departure takeoff time compliance on airspace operations. The experimental design compared 3 TMIs and 2 compliance levels. Fourteen FAA retired controllers participated in the simulation. In addition, two Traffic Management Coordinators from ZTL and ZDC managed traffic flows. Surface and airborne delays, control efficiency, throughput, realism, workload, and acceptability were assessed and will be compared across the experimental conditions. Participants rated the simulation as very realistic. Results indicate that different TMIs have different impacts on surface and airspace delay. Departure compliance indicates partial benefits to sector complexity and controller workload. This simulation will provide an initial assessment of the tactical scheduling problems that the ATD-2 technology will address in the near term.

airspace technology demonstration 2↗