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DOE OSTI2015

The response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation

Abstract The response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to mid‐Holocene boundary conditions remains an open question: paleoclimate proxies and climate model simulations do not agree in the magnitude of the reduction of ENSO variability, while recent proxy evidence from fossil corals from the central Pacific show that the reduction in mid‐Holocene ENSO variability compared to the end of the twentieth century is not different from the reduction during other Holocene time intervals. This is inconsistent with the interpretation of lake and ocean sediment records from the eastern Pacific, which show a significant reduction compared to all other Holocene periods. In order to reconcile the seemingly conflicting proxy evidence from the eastern and central Pacific, we hypothesize that ENSO remained active during the mid‐Holocene; however, there was a change in the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies, also known as ENSO flavors. Using National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model version 4 forced with mid‐Holocene orbital conditions, we find that the frequency of occurrence of the strongest eastern Pacific (EP) events decreases in the mid‐Holocene and their variance is reduced by ∼30%, while the frequency of central Pacific (CP) events slightly increases and their variance does not change. We also find a shift in the seasonality of EP events, but not in that of CP events. Lastly, mid‐Holocene EP events develop more slowly and decay faster. The differential response of ENSO flavors to mid‐Holocene forcing is remotely forced by the West Pacific, where a weakening of the trade winds in early boreal spring in the mid‐Holocene initiates an anomalous downwelling annual Kelvin wave, which reaches the eastern Pacific during the ENSO development season, weakens the upper ocean stratification, and results in reduced ENSO upwelling feedback. The simulated reduction in the EP flavor versus the CP flavor in the mid‐Holocene is consistent with proxy evidence: The teleconnection patterns of the two flavors with temperature, precipitation, and salinity are distinct, and proxies from different regions of the Pacific might be recording variability associated with only one of the flavors, or some combination of their relative effects.

Karamperidou, Christina↗

DOE OSTI2018

A New Method for Interpreting Nonstationary Running Correlations and Its Application to the ENSO‐EAWM Relationship

Abstract We here propose a new statistical method to interpret nonstationary running correlations by decomposing them into a stationary part and a first‐order Taylor expansion approximation for the nonstationary part. Then, this method is applied to investigate the nonstationary behavior of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) relationship, which exhibits prominent multidecadal variations. It is demonstrated that the first‐order approximation of the nonstationary part can be expressed to a large extent by the impact of the nonlinear interaction between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and ENSO (AMO*Niño3.4) on the EAWM. Therefore, the nonstationarity in the ENSO‐EAWM relationship comes predominantly from the impact of an AMO modulation on the ENSO‐EAWM teleconnection via this key nonlinear interaction. This general method can be applied to investigate nonstationary relationships that are often observed between various different climate phenomena.

Geng, Xin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Practical Antimonate Electrocatalyst Performance

Computationally predicting the performance of catalysts under reaction conditions is a challenging task due to the complexity of catalytic surfaces and their evolution in situ, different reaction paths, and the presence of solid-liquid interfaces in the case of electrochemistry. We demonstrate here how relatively simple machine learning models can be found that enable prediction of experimentally observed onset potentials. Inputs to our model are comprised of data from the oxygen reduction reaction on non-precious transition-metal antimony oxide nanoparticulate catalysts with a combination of experimental conditions and computationally affordable bulk atomic and electronic structural descriptors from density functional theory simulations. From human-interpretable genetic programming models, we identify key experimental descriptors and key supplemental bulk electronic and atomic structural descriptors that govern trends in onset potentials for these oxides and deduce how these descriptors should be tuned to increase onset potentials. Here, we finally validate these machine learning predictions by experimentally confirming that scandium as a dopant in nickel antimony oxide leads to a desired onset potential increase. Macroscopic experimental factors are found to be crucially important descriptors to be considered for models of catalytic performance, highlighting the important role machine learning can play here even in the presence of small datasets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multidimensional stability framework enhances interpretation and comparison of carbon cycling response to disturbance

Abstract The concept of stability is central to the study and sustainability of vital ecosystem goods and services as disturbances increase globally. While ecosystem ecologists, including carbon (C) cycling scientists, have long‐considered multiple dimensions of disturbance response, our discipline lacks an agreed‐upon analytical framework for characterizing multidimensional stability. Here, we advocate for the broader adoption of a standardized and normalized multidimensional stability framework for analyzing disturbance response. This framework includes four dimensions of stability: the degree of initial change in C fluxes (i.e., resistance ); rate (i.e., resilience ) and variability (i.e., temporal stability ) of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes; and the extent of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes (i.e., recovery ). Using this framework, we highlight findings not readily seen from analysis of absolute fluxes, including trade‐offs between initial and long‐term C flux responses to disturbance; different overall stability profiles among fluxes; and, using a pilot dataset, similar relative stability of net primary production following fire and insect disturbances. We conclude that ecosystem ecologists’ embrace of a unifying multidimensional stability framework as a complement to approaches focused on absolute C fluxes could advance global change research by aiding in the novel interpretation, comprehensive synthesis, and improved forecasting of ecosystems’ response to an increasing array of disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Statistical interpretation of the Amerithrax “morph” assay results

In the Amerithrax investigation PCR–based “morph assays” were used to link the anthrax letters with the RMR–1029 flask at USAMRIID. Quantitative data reported for several of these assays are not consistent with Poisson sampling statistics, but instead exhibit “Taylor's Law” behavior where the variance greatly exceeds the mean. A plausible statistical model for this behavior can explain the large number of observed negative and “inconclusive” findings, and implies a high likelihood that a repository sample could contain a “morph” mutant at concentrations well above the nominal detection limit but nonetheless give a negative or inconclusive test result. A Bayesian framework relates the assay results to the probability that a sample actually contains all four morph mutants, even though it tested negative for at least one. The analysis implies that the observed false negative rate actually does not significantly weaken the conclusion that the morph assays correctly excluded all but the stocks derived from RMR–1029 as possible sources of the letter powders, at least when the test results were unambiguous. In conclusion, these findings expand upon and resolve some of the issues cited in recent reviews, and indicate the importance of developing a rigorous statistical framework for interpreting “morph” assay data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Factors influencing the development and implementation of advanced radiographer practice in Australia – a qualitative study using an interpretative phenomenological approach

The purpose of this study was to explore the factors influencing the implementation or the lack of implementation of advanced practitioner role in Australia. This study uses an interpretative phenomenological approach to explore the in-depth real life issues, which surround the advanced practitioner as a solution to radiologist workforce shortages in Australia. Research participants are radiographers, radiation therapists and health managers registered with the Australian Institute of Radiography (AIR) and holding senior professional and AIR Board positions with knowledge of current advanced practice. In total, seven interviews were conducted revealing education, governance, technical, people issues, change management, government, costs and timing as critical factors influencing advanced practice in Australia. Seven participants in this study perceived an advanced practice role might have major benefits and a positive impact on the immediate and long-term management of patients. Another finding is the greater respect and appreciation of each other's roles and expertise within the multidisciplinary healthcare team. Engagement is required of the critical stakeholders that have been identified as ‘blockers’ (radiologists, health departments) as well as identified allies (e.g. emergency clinicians, supportive radiologists, patient advocacy groups). The research supports that the AIR has a role to play for the professional identity of radiographers and shaping the advanced practice role in Australia.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Step-by-Step Protocol from METASPACE to Biological Interpretation

Mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) represents an exceptional tool for exploring complex biological systems spatially at the molecular level. However, due to its multidimensional nature and large-scale data output, it presents considerable challenges when it comes to extracting meaningful biological insights. Recent advancements, such as the METASPACE platform, have enabled researchers to efficiently process, annotate, and interpret MSI datasets by leveraging machine learning and cloud-based infrastructure. In this tutorial, we present a detailed and user-friendly R-pipeline designed to help METASPACE users navigate untargeted metabolomic annotations and transform them into practical insights about their biological systems. By combining METASPACE annotations with rapid R-based screening, this workflow not only streamlined the analytical process but also enhanced the understanding of spatial molecular distribution, especially for complex systems. Here, this easy-to-follow approach has the potential for applications in diagnostics, drug discovery, environmental and ecological processes, and more. We envision this pipeline to be particularly useful for newcomers to the field of MSI and

Moreno Pedraza, Abigail↗

DOE OSTI2019

Interpreting Experimental Results from Shock Impacts on Single Crystal PETN in the Context of Continuum Models

Here we interpret previous experimental measurements of impacts on single crystal PETN in the context of a simple continuum model. Hugoniot calculations using the simple model framework under various limiting assumptions envelope measured Hugoniot states reasonably well and suggest that non-negligible deviatoric elastic strains may exist in the shock compressed state for weak impacts. An accompanying simple kinematic model for lattice deformation was used to estimate the expected shifts in X-ray diffraction peaks for the (211) plane under impacts normal to (110) planes. The results suggest that negligible relaxation of the deviatoric lattice deformation occurs on the short (10–20 ns) time and wave propagation (40–80 m) scales of laser-driven shock experiments, and that the corresponding elastic strains may be large. Because of the potentially large deviatoric elastic strains, the specific finite deformation strain measure used within thermomechanical single crystal models is of significant consequence, which is explored numerically by the comparison of isothermal purely elastic responses under uniaxial and simple shear deformations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpretation of large‐scale, long‐term electrical geophysical monitoring guided by a process simulation

Abstract Surface electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used at a waste site to monitor vadose zone changes in electrical properties as a proxy for contaminant flux over a span of 17 years. The BC Cribs and Trenches (BCCT) site at the Hanford site contains 20 disposal trenches and six disposal cribs. Wastes include a large inventory of technetium‐99 and large masses of nitrate and uranium‐238. ERT data were collected along 41 profiles in 2005 to characterize regions of elevated bulk electrical conductivity (BEC) associated with past liquid waste discharges. Previous analyses performed on samples from four boreholes showed a high correlation between nitrate concentration and BEC. In 2022, ERT data were re‐collected along the same profiles and six additional profiles in an area not previously surveyed. Compared to background uncontaminated areas, BEC was higher in contaminated areas at the waste sites. Given the correlation between nitrate concentration and BEC previously found at this site, ERT images show the spatial distribution and relative ionic concentration of vadose zone contaminants at BCCT. Between 2005 and 2022, ERT difference images showed a decrease in BEC surrounding most waste sites, with exceptions where there were known anthropogenic surface changes. An evaluation of recharge‐driven nitrate migration using synthetic flow and transport simulations showed that downward migration causes a decrease in BEC from the decrease in ionic strength at the trailing end of the plume where contaminants migrated downward. From this, we interpret ERT difference images as showing the predominant regions of downward ion flux.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constrained HRT Surfaces and their Entropic Interpretation

Abstract Consider two boundary subregionsAandBthat lie in a common boundary Cauchy surface, and consider also the associated HRT surfaceγ B forB. In that context, the constrained HRT surfaceγ A:B can be defined as the codimension-2 bulk surface anchored toAthat is obtained by a maximin construction restricted to Cauchy slices containingγ B . As a result,γ A:B is the union of two pieces,$$ {\gamma}_{A:B}^B $$ γ A : B B and$$ {\gamma}_{A:B}^{\overline{B}} $$ γ A : B B ¯ lying respectively in the entanglement wedges ofBand its complement$$ \overline{B} $$ B ¯ . Unlike the area$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_A\right) $$ A γ A of the HRT surfaceγ A , at least in the semiclassical limit, the area$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_{A:B}\right) $$ A γ A : B ofγ A:B commutes with the area$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_B\right) $$ A γ B ofγ B . To study the entropic interpretation of$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_{A:B}\right) $$ A γ A : B , we analyze the Rényi entropies of subregionAin a fixed-area state of subregionB. We use the gravitational path integral to show that then ≈1 Rényi entropies are then computed by minimizing$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_A\right) $$ A γ A over spacetimes defined by a boost angle conjugate to$$ \mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_B\right) $$ A γ B . In the case where the pieces$$ {\gamma}_{A:B}^B $$ γ A : B B and$$ {\gamma}_{A:B}^{\overline{B}} $$ γ A : B B ¯ intersect at a constant boost angle, a geometric argument shows that then ≈1 Rényi entropy is then given by$$ \frac{\mathcal{A}\left({\gamma}_{A:B}\right)}{4G} $$ A γ A : B 4 G . We discuss how then ≈1 Rényi entropy differs from the von Neumann entropy due to a lack of commutativity of then→ 1 andG →0 limits. We also discuss how the behaviour changes as a function of the width of the fixed-area state. Our results are relevant to some of the issues associated with attempts to use standard random tensor networks to describe time dependent geometries.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the interpretation of a possible ~ 750 GeV particle decaying into γγ

We consider interpretations of the recent ~3σ reports by the CMS and ATLAS collaborations of a possible X(~ 750 GeV) state decaying into yy final states. We focus on the possibilities that this is a scalar or pseudoscalar electroweak isoscalar state produced by gluon-gluon fusion mediated by loops of heavy fermions. We consider several models for these fermions, including a single vector-like charge 2/3 T quark, a doublet of vector-like quarks (T;B), and a vector-like generation of quarks, with or without leptons that also contribute to the X → yy decay amplitude. We also consider the possibility that X(750) is a dark matter mediator, with a neutral vector-like dark matter particle. These scenarios are compatible with the present and prospective direct limits on vector-like fermions from LHC Runs 1 and 2, as well as indirect constraints from electroweak precision measurements, and we show that the required Yukawa-like couplings between the X particle and the heavy vector-like fermions are small enough to be perturbative so long as the X particle has dominant decay modes into gg and yy. In conclusion, the decays X → ZZ,Zy and W + W - are interesting prospective signatures that may help distinguish between different vector-like fermion scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Interpreting the electron EDM constraint

The ACME collaboration has recently announced a new constraint on the electron EDM, |d e | < 1.1 × 10 -29 e cm, from measurements of the ThO molecule. This is a powerful constraint on CP-violating new physics: even new physics generating the EDM at two loops is constrained at the multi-TeV scale. We interpret the bound in the context of different scenarios for new physics: a general order-of-magnitude analysis for both the electron EDM and the CP-odd electron-nucleon coupling; 1-loop SUSY, probing sleptons above 10 TeV; 2-loop SUSY, probing multi-TeV charginos or stops; and finally, new physics that generates the EDM via the charm quark or top quark Yukawa couplings. In the last scenario, new physics generates a “QULE operator” ($q_{ƒ}\overline{σ}^{μν}\overline{u}_{ƒ}$)·($ℓ\overline{σ}_{μν}\overline{e}$), which in turn generates the EDM through RG evolution. If the QULE operator is generated at tree level, this corresponds to a previously studied leptoquark model. For the first time, we also classify scenarios in which the QULE operator is generated at one loop through a box diagram, which include (among others) SUSY and leptoquark models. The electron EDM bound is the leading constraint on a wide variety of theories of CP-violating new physics interacting with the Higgs boson or the top quark. We argue that any future nonzero measurement of an electron EDM will provide a strong motivation for constructing new colliders at the highest feasible energies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement of the inclusive and differential $t\overline{t}γ$ cross sections in the dilepton channel and effective field theory interpretation in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The production cross section of a top quark pair in association with a photon is measured in proton-proton collisions in the decay channel with two oppositely charged leptons (e ± μ ∓ , e + e - , or μ + μ - ). The measurement is performed using 138 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at √s = 13 TeV during the 2016–2018 data-taking period of the CERN LHC. A fiducial phase space is defined such that photons radiated by initial-state particles, top quarks, or any of their decay products are included. An inclusive cross section of 175.2 ± 2.5(stat) ± 6.3(syst) fb is measured in a signal region with at least one jet coming from the hadronization of a bottom quark and exactly one photon with transverse momentum above 20 GeV. Differential cross sections are measured as functions of several kinematic observables of the photon, leptons, and jets, and compared to standard model predictions. The measurements are also interpreted in the standard model effective field theory framework, and limits are found on the relevant Wilson coefficients from these results alone and in combination with a previous CMS measurement of the tt¯γ production process using the lepton+jets final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

ATLAS Run 2 searches for electroweak production of supersymmetric particles interpreted within the pMSSM

A summary of the constraints from searches performed by the ATLAS collaboration for the electroweak production of charginos and neutralinos is presented. Results from eight separate ATLAS searches are considered, each using 140 fb −1 of proton-proton data at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected at the Large Hadron Collider during its second data-taking run. The results are interpreted in the context of the 19-parameter phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model, where R-parity conservation is assumed and the lightest supersymmetric particle is assumed to be the lightest neutralino. Constraints from previous electroweak, flavour and dark matter related measurements are also considered. The results are presented in terms of constraints on supersymmetric particle masses and are compared with limits from simplified models. Also shown is the impact of ATLAS searches on parameters such as the dark matter relic density and the spin-dependent and spin-independent scattering cross-sections targeted by direct dark matter detection experiments. The Higgs boson and Z boson ‘funnel regions’, where a low-mass neutralino would not oversaturate the dark matter relic abundance, are almost completely excluded by the considered constraints. Example spectra for non-excluded supersymmetric models with light charginos and neutralinos are also presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Interpreting the 3 TeV WH resonance as a W' boson

Motivated by a local 3.2 - 3.4 sigma resonance in WH and ZH in the ATLAS Run 2 data, we attempt to interpret the excess in terms of a W' boson in a SU(2) 1 × SU(2) 2 ×U(1) X model. Here, we stretch the deviation from the alignment limit of the Equivalence Theorem, so as to maximize WH production while keeping the WZ production rate below the experimental limit. We found a viable though small region of parameter space that satisfies all existing constraints on $W'\rightarrow jj,t\bar{b},WZ$, as well as the precision Higgs data. The cross section of W' → WH that we obtain is about 5 - 6 fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inclusive and differential cross-section measurements of $ t\overline{t}Z$ production in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector, including EFT and spin-correlation interpretations

Measurements of both the inclusive and differential production cross sections of a top-quark-top-antiquark pair in association with a Z boson ($t\overline{t}Z$) are presented. Final states with two, three or four isolated leptons (electrons or muons) are targeted. The measurements use the data recorded by the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 . The inclusive cross section is measured to be ${\sigma}_{t\overline{t}Z}$ = 0.86 ± 0.04 (stat.) ± 0.04 (syst.) pb and found to be in agreement with the most advanced Standard Model predictions. The differential measurements are presented as a function of a number of observables that probe the kinematics of the $t\overline{t}Z$ system. Both the absolute and normalised differential cross-section measurements are performed at particle level and parton level for specific fiducial volumes, and are compared with NLO+NNLL theoretical predictions. The results are interpreted in the framework of Standard Model effective field theory and used to set limits on a large number of dimension-6 operators involving the top quark. The first measurement of spin correlations in $t\overline{t}Z$ events is presented: the results are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations, and the null hypothesis of no spin correlations is disfavoured with a significance of 1.8 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Phenomenological MSSM interpretation of CMS searches in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 and 8 TeV

Searches for new physics by the CMS collaboration are interpreted in the framework of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM). The data samples used in this study were collected at $ \sqrt{s}=7 $ and 8 TeV and have integrated luminosities of 5.0 fb$^{−1}$ and 19.5 fb$^{−1}$, respectively. A global Bayesian analysis is performed, incorporating results from a broad range of CMS supersymmetry searches, as well as constraints from other experiments. Because the pMSSM incorporates several well-motivated assumptions that reduce the 120 parameters of the MSSM to just 19 parameters defined at the electroweak scale, it is possible to assess the results of the study in a relatively straightforward way. Approximately half of the model points in a potentially accessible subspace of the pMSSM are excluded, including all pMSSM model points with a gluino mass below 500 GeV, as well as models with a squark mass less than 300 GeV. Models with chargino and neutralino masses below 200 GeV are disfavored, but no mass range of model points can be ruled out based on the analyses considered. The nonexcluded regions in the pMSSM parameter space are characterized in terms of physical processes and key observables, and implications for future searches are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and interpretations of W ± Z production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of integrated and differential cross-sections for W ± Z production in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The W ± Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons or muons. The integrated cross-section per lepton flavour for the production of W ± Z is measured in the detector fiducial region with a relative precision of 4%. The measured value is compared with the Standard Model prediction at a precision of up to next-to-next-to-leading-order in QCD and next-to-leading-order in electroweak. Cross-sections for W + Z and W − Z production and their ratio are presented. The W ± Z production is also measured differentially as functions of various kinematic variables, including new observables sensitive to CP-violation effects. All measurements are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model predictions from fixed-order calculations or Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with parton showers. An effective field theory interpretation of the measurements is performed, considering both CP-conserving and CP-violating dimension-6 operators modifying the W ± Z production. In the absence of observed deviations from the Standard Model, limits on CP-conserving Wilson coefficients are extracted using the transverse mass of the W ± Z system. For CP-violating coefficients a machine learning approach is used to construct an observable with enhanced sensitivity to CP-violation effects.

hadron-hadron scattering↗