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At least 415 records · Page 23

Net-Zero Ethylene: On the Sustainability, Economics, and Scalability of Synthetic and Fossil Production Pathways

The ethylene industry has contributed over 260 million tons of CO 2 annually, warranting a more sustainable approach. The conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into ethylene is an appealing technology capable of decoupling chemical production from fossil fuels. However, the large energy demand from this process can potentially lead to adverse environmental impacts. Here, in this article, we critically analyze the economic viability, environmental impact, and scalability of the conversion of CO 2 to ethylene via electrochemical reduction (CO 2 R) and compare this with those of CO 2 -neutral fossil routes utilizing carbon capture and direct air capture. Ethylene derived from CO 2 may be economically competitive under optimistic conditions; however, its large energy requirements pose environmental and scalability challenges. Meeting forecast 2050 ethylene demand using CO 2 R would require half of all electricity produced globally today, and, if powered by solar PV, may have greater CO 2 emissions than current petrochemical ethylene production, negating the purpose of this technology. Using Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture to decarbonize petrochemical pathways would require roughly an order of magnitude less energy but would have disproportionate health and climate impacts. Lastly, the analysis highlights the importance of low-carbon energy sources to ensure sustainable CO 2 R ethylene production.

CO2R↗

Methane Clathrate Hydrate Prospecting

A method of prospecting for methane has been devised. The impetus for this method lies in the abundance of CH4 and the growing shortages of other fuels. The method is intended especially to enable identification of subpermafrost locations where significant amounts of methane are trapped in the form of methane gas hydrate (CH4(raised dot)6H2O). It has been estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey that the total CH4 resource in CH4(raised dot) 6H2O exceeds the energy content of all other fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas from non-hydrate sources). Also, CH4(raised dot)6H2O is among the cleanest-burning fuels, and CH4 is the most efficient fuel because the carbon in CH4 is in its most reduced state. The method involves looking for a proxy for methane gas hydrate, by means of the combination of a thermal-analysis submethod and a field submethod that does not involve drilling. The absence of drilling makes this method easier and less expensive, in comparison with prior methods of prospecting for oil and natural gas. The proposed method would include thermoprospecting in combination with one more of the other non-drilling measurement techniques, which could include magneto-telluric sounding and/or a subsurface-electrical-resistivity technique. The method would exploit the fact that the electrical conductivity in the underlying thawed region is greater than that in the overlying permafrost.

Duxbury, N.↗

Transportation Energy: A Comparison Including and Excluding Upstream Energy

Thirty-eight editions of the Transportation Energy Data Book (Data Book) have been published since the report began in 1976. It was designed as a desk-top reference of statistics and information that characterize transportation activity. The most recent Data Book, edition 38, has 226 tables and 70 figures in the body of the report, with an additional 51 tables in appendices. One of the most-often used tables in the Data Book is referred to by the authors as “the big energy table.” It has transportation energy use in British thermal units (Btu) by mode and fuel type. The data are compiled from about 20 different sources and combined to create a detailed picture of transportation energy use. From the first edition to edition 35 of the Data Book, electricity use in the big energy table was converted from the original kilowatt-hours (kWh) to Btu using the net generation heat rate for fossil fuels. In those days, electricity was used mainly by transit rail. As electricity began to be used in the highway modes with consumer sales of electric vehicles, that process was revisited. Since energy use in the Data Book’s big energy table for all other fuels did not include the upstream energy to create the fuel, it seemed inconsistent to include upstream energy for generation of electricity. Beginning with edition 36, electricity use for the big energy table was converted from kilowatt hours to Btu using the heat content of electricity. Using heat content instead of net generation reduced electricity use data by about two-thirds. Feedback in recent years on the change in process for electricity led to an investigation of the differences in transportation energy use when adding estimates of upstream energy use to all the fuels used in transportation. This report documents the result of that effort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of New Reactor Core Configuration for Power Uprate - Fuel Reload & Heat Processing Analyses, Core Design, System Safety Assessments, and Fuel Performance Analyses

With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States stands at a critical juncture for the future of nuclear power. These landmark policies provide significant support for clean energy initiatives, positioning nuclear power as a key component of the nation’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve energy security. This growing emphasis on nuclear energy is driven by the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources as the country transitions away from fossil fuels. Federal policy, along with increasing state-level support, is encouraging investment in nuclear technology advancements to meet these demands. Building new nuclear power plants (NPPs), however, presents significant challenges due to high costs and long construction timelines. As a result, increasing the power output of existing NPPs through power uprates has emerged as a more feasible and cost-effective strategy. One key area of advancement is the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), such as chromium-coated zirconium alloy cladding, which offers enhanced material performance, enabling power uprates in light water reactors (LWRs). Given the growing demand for nuclear energy fueled by federal policies and state initiatives, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of significant power uprates in existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) using advanced fuel technologies. The introduction of ATF concepts opens new opportunities for safely and economically achieving these power increases. Assessing whether these innovations can support substantial power uprates while maintaining operational safety is crucial to maximizing the potential of the nation’s existing nuclear infrastructure. This project aims to explore how power uprates can be achieved by boosting reactor thermal power output and optimizing reactor core design, while ensuring the safety and economic viability of NPPs. Specifically, it will focus on demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of power uprates in a PWR using low 5-10% enrichment uranium (LEU+) high burnup (HBU) fuel combined with ATF concepts. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the research and development focus on building foundational models and conducting multi-physics performance and safety analyses to support the power uprate. The findings of the study would be shared through LWRS Seasonal Meetings, conferences and workshops with utility companies and researchers. These also serve as a basis for further study of fuel reloading optimization with ATF claddings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Validated Numerical Models for the Convective Extinction of Fuel Droplets (CEFD)

The NASA Nebraska Space Grant (NSGC) & EPSCoR programs have continued their effort to support outstanding research endeavors by funding the Numerical Simulation of the Combustion of Fuel Droplets study at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln (UNL). This team of researchers has developed a transient numerical model to study the combustion of suspended and moving droplets. The engines that propel missiles, jets, and many other devices are dependent upon combustion. Therefore, data concerning the combustion of fuel droplets is of immediate relevance to aviation and aeronautical personnel, especially those involved in flight operations. The experiments being conducted by Dr. Gogos and Dr. Nayagam s research teams, allow investigators to gather data for comparison with theoretical predictions of burning rates, flame structures, and extinction conditions. The consequent improved fundamental understanding of droplet combustion may contribute to the clean and safe utilization of fossil fuels (Williams, Dryer, Haggard & Nayagam, 1997, f 2). The present state of knowledge on convective extinction of fuel droplets derives from experiments conducted under normal gravity conditions. However, any data obtained with suspended droplets under normal gravity are grossly affected by gravity. The need to obtain experimental data under microgravity conditions is therefore well justified and addresses one of the goals of NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) microgravity combustion experiment.

Gogos, George↗

Unlocking the biofuel power of cover crop in Washington State: Enhancing potential through hydrothermal liquefaction

This study evaluates cover crops in Washington State (WA) as a renewable feedstock for hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), supported by techno-economic (TEA) and life cycle (LCA) analysis. In the Pacific Northwest, fallow land is the common winter practice, generating no income for farmers. Over three years, field trials at two representative sites—Puyallup (cool, wet) and Othello (irrigated, no-till)tested triticale, hairy vetch, crimson clover, winter pea, and fava bean preceding cash crops. Biomass yields, composition, soil impacts, and net revenue were assessed across removal treatments. HTL conversion produced 32–37 wt% biocrude, lower than 48 wt% for sewage sludge, with modeled cradle-to-grave carbon intensities of 26–31 g CO 2 e/MJ and minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) of $\$$6.75–$\$$7.18 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), comparable to other lignocellulosic feedstocks. No significant changes were observed in soil carbon, nitrogen, or subsequent cash crop yields after cover crop removal. Farmer profitability was possible, particularly for triticale and hairy vetch at $\$$60 per dry ton. To address seasonal variability, blending with wastewater sludge was evaluated. All scenarios delivered >70 % carbon intensity reductions relative to fossil fuels, and with Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, MFSPs below $\$$2.5 GGE were achievable. These results demonstrate that cover crops can generate new revenue streams for farmers while serving as a flexible, low-carbon feedstock. Integrating cover crops with waste biomass offers a practical pathway to expand the bioeconomy and support year-round renewable fuel production.

Biofuels↗

Solar Thermochemical Ammonia Production (STAP) (Final Report)

Ammonia (NH 3 ) is an energy-dense chemical and a vital component of fertilizer. In addition, it is a carbon-neutral liquid fuel and a potential candidate for thermochemical energy storage for high-temperature concentrating solar power (CSP). Currently, NH 3 synthesis occurs via the Haber-Bosch process, which requires high pressures (15-25 MPa) and medium to high temperatures (400-500 °C). N 2 and H 2 are essential feedstocks for this NH 3 production process. H 2 is generally derived from methane via steam reforming; N 2 is sourced from air, after oxygen removal via combustion of hydrocarbons. Both processes consume hydrocarbons, resulting in the release of CO 2 . In addition, hydrocarbon fuels are burned to produce the heat and mechanical energy required to perform the NH 3 reaction, further increasing CO 2 emissions. Overall, the production of ammonia via the Haber-Bosch (H-B) process is responsible for up to 1.4% of the world’s carbon emissions. The development of a renewable pathway to NH 3 synthesis, which utilizes concentrated solar irradiation as a process heat instead of fossil fuels and operates under low or ambient pressure, will result in a decrease (or elimination) of greenhouse gas emissions as well as avoid the cost, complexity, and safety issues inherent in high-pressure processes. Most current efforts to “green” ammonia production involve either electrolysis or simply replacing the energy source for H-B with renewable electricity, but otherwise leaving the process intact. The effort proposed here would create a new paradigm for the synthesis of NH 3 utilizing solar-thermal heat, water, and air as feedstocks, providing a truly green method of production. The overall objective of the STAP (Solar Thermal Ammonia Production) project was to develop a solar thermochemical looping technology to produce and store nitrogen (N 2 ) from air for the subsequent production of ammonia (NH 3 ) via an advanced two-stage process. The goal is a cost-effective and energy efficient technology for the renewable N 2 production and synthesis of NH 3 from H 2 (produced from H 2 O) and air using solar-thermal energy from concentrating sunlight, under pressures an order of magnitude lower than H-B NH 3 production. Our process involves two looping cycles, which do not require catalysts and can be recycled. Over the course of the STAP project, we (1) developed and deeply characterized oxide materials for N 2 separation; (2) developed a method for the synthesis of metal nitrides, producing a series of quaternary compounds that have been heretofore unreported; (3) modeled, designed, and fabricated bench-scale tube and on-sun reactors for the N 2 production step and demonstrated the ability to separate N 2 over multiple cycles in the tube reactor; (4) designed and fabricated a bench-scale Ammonia Synthesis Reactor (ASR) and demonstrated the proof of concept of NH 3 synthesis via a novel looping process using metal nitrides over multiple cycles; and (5) completed a systems- and technoeconomic analysis showing the feasibility of ammonia production on a larger scale via the STAP process. The development of renewable, low-cost NH 3 will be of great interest to the chemicals industry, particularly agricultural sectors. The CSP industry should be both an important customer and potential end-user of this technology, as it affords the capability of synthesizing a promising thermochemical storage material on-site. Since the NH 3 synthesis step also requires H 2 , there will exist a symbiotic relationship between this technology and solar-thermochemical water-splitting applications. Green ammonia synthesis will result in the decarbonization of a hydrocarbon-intensive industry, helping to meet the Administration goal of industrial decarbonization by 2050. The resulting decrease in CO 2 and related pollutants will improve health and well-being of society, particularly for those living in the vicinity of commercial production plants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigating Combinations of Alkali Metal Oxides and Hydrogenation Catalysts for Reactive Capture of CO2 to Useful C1 Products

As the world endures environmental crises associated with climate change and the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentrations from anthropogenic CO2 emission, carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies are increasingly necessary. Reactive carbon capture (RCC) technologies, in which capture and conversion of CO2 occur in a single reactor, are more energetically and economically attractive by avoiding the need to purify, compress, and transport the captured CO2. To this end, dual function materials (DFMs) - composed of sorbents and catalysts co-dispersed on the same high surface area carrier - have been developed. The sorbent component allows for selective capture of CO2 from a gas stream and the catalyst component subsequently performs the in-situ conversion of the adsorbed CO2 upon introduction of a reactive gas (typically H2). The end product of the most established DFM, comprised of Ru and/or Ni with an alkaline sorbent, is methane via the CO2 methanation reaction. While renewable methane would be an excellent transition fuel, fossil methane is inexpensive (averaging $2.57/MMBTU in pre-pandemic 2019) and the economics of renewable methane utilization are noncompetitive. This requires the design and investigation of DFMs that enable CO2 capture and conversion to more valuable and more useful C1 products like CO or methanol (average price of methanol was $20.61/MMBTU in pre-pandemic 2019). These products can then be further upgraded to high energy density synthetic fuels, and related carbonaceous products, for more sustainable alternatives in industries that are difficult to decarbonize, specifically heavy duty vehicles and aviation. Herein, we report various sorbent + catalyst combinations to achieve the production of useful C1 products through reactive capture of CO2.

carbon capture↗

Lessons Learned from US Experience with Biofuels: Comparing the Hype with the Evidence

Biofuel production in the United States, primarily from corn, has more than doubled since 2007, leading to concerns about its unintended consequences for agricultural and fuel markets. To examine the validity of these concerns and inform the debate about biofuels and their impacts, we review ex ante projections and ex post evidence of the effects of biofuels on land use, food and fuel prices, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that biofuels expansion contributed to an initial significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, but these impacts have dissipated over time as crop productivity has increased and cropping patterns have changed. Simulated estimates of indirect land use change and the related GHG emissions intensity of biofuels have also declined sharply from their early levels, which is consistent with ex post evidence. Additionally, growth in biofuel production caused a very modest reduction in fossil fuel prices, implying a small fuel rebound effect. Overall, estimates imply that first-generation biofuels from corn have a lower carbon intensity than gasoline. Lastly, learning by doing, economies of scale, and technological improvements have made biofuels from corn increasingly competitive, reducing the need for subsidies and import tariffs. We conclude with a discussion of the lessons learned from the US biofuels experience.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Energy Servers Deliver Clean, Affordable Power

K.R. Sridhar developed a fuel cell device for Ames Research Center, that could use solar power to split water into oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for fuel on Mars. Sridhar saw the potential of the technology, when reversed, to create clean energy on Earth. He founded Bloom Energy, of Sunnyvale, California, to advance the technology. Today, the Bloom Energy Server is providing cost-effective, environmentally friendly energy to a host of companies such as eBay, Google, and The Coca-Cola Company. Bloom's NASA-derived Energy Servers generate energy that is about 67-percent cleaner than a typical coal-fired power plant when using fossil fuels and 100-percent cleaner with renewable fuels.

Source record↗

Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Natural Gas and Lactic Acid Production from Waste Feedstocks

Producing fuels and chemicals from waste is considered economically favorable, due to low feedstock cost, and environmentally favorable, due to avoided emissions from conventional waste management practices. In this study, we evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction benefits of renewable natural gas (RNG) and lactic acid (LA) production from four types of wet waste feedstocks (wastewater sludge, food waste, swine manure, and fats, oil, and grease [FOG]) via anaerobic digestion (AD) and LA fermentation, respectively. RNG can be used as an alternative to fossil natural gas, while LA from waste feedstocks can displace conventional LA production pathways (mainly from corn via fermentation). Providing comprehensive life cycle GHG emissions of the combinations of waste feedstocks and products through different routes helps identify the GHG hotspots and show where emissions savings come from. The results show that the carbon intensities (CIs) of waste-derived RNG and LA are much lower than those of their counterparts. We estimated the life cycle GHG emissions for RNG to be between -146 and 27 g carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/MJ, much lower than the CI of fossil fuels. Waste-derived LA pathways also show substantially lower CIs, ranging from -4.2 to -1.4 kgCO2e/kg LA, compared to the CIs of LA from corn and corn stover (1.2 and 0.3 kgCO2e/kg LA, respectively). We will also discuss that the low CIs of waste-derived products can come from low yields leading to high emission credits. Thus, life cycle analysis results presented per weight of treated waste can be used to support decisions about which waste feedstocks and products are to be used for sustainable waste valorization. In addition, we found that monetary emission reduction credits can play an important role in driving waste valorization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Emissions of Trace Gases and Particles from Two Ships in the Southern Atlantic Ocean

Measurements were made of the emissions of particles and gases from two diesel-powered ships in the southern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Namibia. The measurements are used to derive emission factors from ships of three species not reported previously, namely, black carbon, accumulation-mode particles, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as for carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), non-methane hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and condensation nuclei. The effects of fuel grade and engine power on ship emissions are discussed. The emission factors are combined with fuel usage data to obtain estimates of global annual emissions of various particles and gases from ocean-going ships. Global emissions of black carbon, accumulation- mode particles, and CCN from ocean-going ships are estimated to be 19-26 Gg yr(sup -1), (4.4-6.1) x 10(exp 26) particles yr(sup -1), and (1.0-1.5) x l0(exp 26) particles yr(sup -1), respectively. Black carbon emissions from ocean-going ships are approximately 0.2% of total anthropogenic emissions. Emissions of NOx and SO2 from ocean-going ships are approximately 10-14% and approximately 3-4%, respectively, of the total emissions of these species from the burning of fossil fuels, and approximately 40% and approximately 70%, respectively, of the total emissions of these species from the burning of biomass. Global annual emissions of CO and CH4 from ocean-going ships are approximately 2% and approximately 2-5%, respectively, of natural oceanic emissions of these species.

Sinha, Parikhit↗

Renewable energy and biological conservation in a changing world

Without a shift to renewable energy sources, climate change will have adverse effects on many terrestrial and aquatic species. On the other hand, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy will have different effects on wildlife, some negative. To protect biota, while navigating the complexities surrounding the transition to renewable energy, will require sharing knowledge between energy experts and wildlife experts, as well as policy makers and resource managers. This special issue is intended to advance the conversation. Interactions between renewable energy facilities and fauna are complex. Each source of renewable energy has its own conservation concerns, and each presents its own set of opportunities for mitigation; Other concerns and mitigations are shared. In this overview, we review climate risks to biota, clarify the complementarities among renewables for the conservation community, and summarize research on energy effects on biota for the energy community. The papers invited for this special issue address fossil (coal, oil, natural gas) and renewable energy (terrestrial biomass energy, hydropower, marine-hydrokinetic energy, wind energy, solar energy) and affected fauna. Finally, we hope that the results of these studies, and others like them, set us on a path toward low-carbon energy systems that provide society with energy while protecting future biodiversity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Catalina Repower Feasibility Study: NREL Phases I & II Summary Report

Engineers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) supported Southern California Edison (SCE) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by conducting technical and economic analyses for energy systems at Santa Catalina (Catalina) Island, which is located 22 miles off the coast of Long Beach, California. This effort was part of a broader Repower Catalina Feasibility Study that was also supported by NV5, an engineering consulting firm and project partner to NREL for this analysis. This document describes NREL’s techno-economic modeling and optimization analysis for the first two phases of this project which focus on supply-side generation and energy storage options for Catalina. SCE’s goal for this analysis is to determine a strategy for electricity generation on Catalina Island that results in lower energy costs, improved energy resiliency, and reduced air emissions. EPA goals for this effort are to reduce emissions of air pollution and encourage renewable energy development on contaminated and formerly contaminated lands when such development is aligned with the community’s vision for the site. Currently, an on-island SCE power plant serves the Catalina Island electrical load with 6 reciprocating diesel generators totaling 9.4 MW; 23 propane-fueled microturbines totaling 1.5 MW; and a 1-MW, 7.2-MWh sodium sulfur battery energy storage system (BESS). In 2017, the electricity consumption on the island was 29.1 GWh, with an average load of 3.3 MW and peak load of approximately 5.5 MW. Considering new environmental standards on diesel generator emissions from California’s South Coast Air Quality Management District, a 60% renewable energy target for 2030 laid out in California’s Senate Bill 100, SCE’s Clean Power Electrification Pathway, and the characteristics of the island’s existing diesel generators, SCE is seeking to evaluate the technical and economic implications of different energy technology options to determine a path forward. Phases I and II of the Repower Catalina Feasibility Study, summarized in this document, evaluated the following: Interconnection with the mainland via an undersea cable; On-island fossil fuel generation, including diesel, propane, and/or liquified natural gas (LNG); On-island renewable energy (RE) technologies, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and wave energy devices; BESS to support the above generation technologies; Initial analysis of the potential impacts of implementing energy efficiency measures. Results indicate strong techno-economic potential for a mix of on-island diesel and/or propane generators, solar PV, BESS, and energy efficiency measures to help SCE and Catalina achieve their goals compliant with California’s emissions and clean energy standards while minimizing electricity life cycle costs (LCC) over the 30-year analysis period. This document summarizes the considerations and findings of Phases I and II, focusing on high-level takeaways from Phase I and more detailed results from Phase II, and discusses a potential path forward for Phase III.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗

The effect of increasing temperature on crop photosynthesis: from enzymes to ecosystems

Abstract As global land surface temperature continues to rise and heatwave events increase in frequency, duration, and/or intensity, our key food and fuel cropping systems will likely face increased heat-related stress. A large volume of literature exists on exploring measured and modelled impacts of rising temperature on crop photosynthesis, from enzymatic responses within the leaf up to larger ecosystem-scale responses that reflect seasonal and interannual crop responses to heat. This review discusses (i) how crop photosynthesis changes with temperature at the enzymatic scale within the leaf; (ii) how stomata and plant transport systems are affected by temperature; (iii) what features make a plant susceptible or tolerant to elevated temperature and heat stress; and (iv) how these temperature and heat effects compound at the ecosystem scale to affect crop yields. Throughout the review, we identify current advancements and future research trajectories that are needed to make our cropping systems more resilient to rising temperature and heat stress, which are both projected to occur due to current global fossil fuel emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗