SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Findings”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamical Correlations and Order in Magic-Angle Twisted Bilayer Graphene

The interplay of dynamical correlations and electronic ordering is pivotal in shaping phase diagrams of correlated quantum materials. In magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene, transport, thermodynamic, and spectroscopic experiments pinpoint a competition between distinct low-energy states with and without electronic order, as well as between localized and delocalized charge carriers. In this study, we utilize dynamical mean-field theory on the topological heavy fermion model of twisted bilayer graphene to investigate the emergence of electronic correlations and long-range order in the absence of strain. We contrast moment formation, Kondo screening, and ordering on a temperature basis and explain the nature of emergent correlated states based on three central phenomena: (i) the formation of local spin and valley isospin moments around 100 K, (ii) the ordering of the local isospin moments around 10 K preempting Kondo screening, and (iii) a cascadic redistribution of charge between localized and delocalized electronic states upon doping. At integer fillings, we find that low-energy spectral weight is depleted in the symmetric phase, while we find insulating states with gaps enhanced by exchange coupling in the zero-strain ordered phases. Doping away from integer filling results in distinct metallic states: a “bad metal” above the ordering temperature, where scattering off the disordered local moments suppresses electronic coherence, and a “good metal” in the ordered states with coherence of quasiparticles facilitated by isospin order. This finding reveals coherence from order as the microscopic mechanism behind the Pomeranchuk effect observed experimentally by Rozen [] and by Saito []. Upon doping, there is a periodic charge reshuffling between localized and delocalized electronic orbitals leading to cascades of doping-induced Lifshitz transitions, local spectral weight redistributions, and periodic variations of the electronic compressibility ranging from nearly incompressible to negative. Our findings highlight the essential role of charge transfer, hybridization, and ordering in shaping the electronic excitations and thermodynamic properties in twisted bilayer graphene and provide a unified understanding of the most puzzling aspects of scanning tunneling spectroscopy, transport, and compressibility experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Expansion-history preferences of DESI DR2 and external data

We explore the origin of the preference of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and external data from cosmic microwave background (CMB) and type Ia supernovae (SNIa) that dark energy behavior departs from that expected in the standard cosmological model with vacuum energy (Λ ⁢CDM). In our analysis, we allow a flexible scaling of the expansion rate with redshift that nevertheless allows reasonably tight constraints on the quantities of interest, and adopt and validate a simple yet accurate compression of the CMB data that allows us to constrain our phenomenological model of the expansion history. We find that data consistently show a preference for a 3%–4% increase in the expansion rate at 𝑧 ≃ 0.7 relative to that predicted by the standard Λ⁢ CDM model, in excellent agreement with results from the less flexible (𝑤 0 ,𝑤 𝑎 ) parametrization which was used in previous analyses. Even though our model allows a departure from the best-fit Λ⁢ CDM model at zero redshift, we find no evidence for such a signal. We also find no evidence (at greater than 1⁢𝜎 significance) for a departure of the expansion rate from the Λ ⁢CDM predictions at higher redshifts for any of the data combinations that we consider. Altogether, our results strengthen the robustness of the findings using the combination of DESI, CMB, and SNIa data to dark-energy modeling assumptions.

Cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Evidence on Latency in a Fleet of Controllable Water Heaters

Demand response is an important emerging part of smart grids with wide coverage in theoretical and modeling research. However, experimental evidence on the real-life behavior of controllable loads is still limited. We present observations regarding latency and communication aspects of the operation on a fleet of residential water heaters in a smart neighborhood in Atlanta, GA. Our analysis shows that latency in water heaters is not constant and does not follow a Gaussian distribution. We also find that there is a systematic relationship between latency and hour of the day. Latency was found to increase during morning and evening hours compared to the afternoon. These findings could help better plan deployment of control for demand response programs. Understanding delays associated with controlling smart devices is crucial for proper design and algorithm development for optimization, frequency of dispatch, and override detection.

communication delay↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overall Performance Losses and Activated Mechanisms in Double Glass and Glass-backsheet Photovoltaic Modules with Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Cells, under Accelerated Exposures

Commercial PV modules have various packaging choices nowadays, which influence their long-term reliability. This study compared the degradation behaviors of sixteen module variants from two brands with varying encapsulant materials (EVA or POE), encapsulant types, module architectures (GB or DG), and cell types (monofacial or bifacial) using null hypothesis testing to determine statistical significant findings. The modules were exposed for 2,520 hours under two accelerated exposures: modified damp heat (mDH) and modified damp heat with full-spectrum light (mDH+FSL). For both brands, two DG module variants with UV-Cutoff rear encapsulant are found to have significantly lower average power loss than the module variants of EVA+GB with opaque rear encapsulant after each accelerated exposure. Metallization interconnect corrosion is identified as the primary degradation mechanism. Furthermore, unsupervised hierarchical clustering finds that the degradation behaviors of modules from one brand with a more strict manufacturing quality control depends on module architectures only.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fuzzified PaCcET for Economic-Emission Scheduling of Microgrids

In this paper, a new approach is proposed to solve a multi-objective economic-emission scheduling problem in microgrids (MGs) by simultaneously minimizing the energy and emission costs of the MG with various distributed energy resources (DERs). The proposed approach is an extension of a computationally effective multiobjective optimization technique, Pareto concavity elimination transformation (PaCcET). The proposed approach, referred to as Fuzzified-PaCcET, employs a fuzzy logic controller to dynamically revise crossover and mutation rates in the original PaCcET leading to the faster convergence of the solution. The proposed approach finds the best Pareto front, also referred to as a Non-dominated set (NDS) of solutions, instead of finding a single optimal solution. In order to find the solutions on concave areas of the Pareto front, an iterative objective space transformation is performed in the PaCcET algorithm to allow a linear combination of objective functions (in the transformed objective space). The proposed Fuzzified-PaCcET-based scheduling is implemented on a MG with various dispatchable and non-dispatchable DERs to find the set of optimal solutions according to the total fuel cost of DERs, as well as the most optimum environmental cost. In order to extract the best compromise solution (BCS) among NDS of solutions, a fuzzy-based method is implemented. The comparison of the simulation results of the Fuzzified-PaCcET with that of PaCcET shows that Fuzzified-PaCcET can generate better solution with less computational burden.

Gautam, Mukesh↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth’s changing climate. However, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database (ForC), representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively explore how C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. We show that, across all flux variables analyzed, C cycling decreases continuously with absolute latitude – a finding that confirms multiple previous studies but contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature and temperature seasonality in particular, were the best univariate predictors of C flux, explaining 19 - 71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. C fluxes increased with growing season length, but this was never the best univariate predictor. Within the growing season, the influence of climate on C cycling was small but significant for a number of flux variables. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In a period of accelerating climatic change, this improved understanding of the fundamental climatic controls on forest C cycling sets a foundation for understanding patterns of change.

Banbury Morgan, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2022

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determining spatially varying profit‐maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States

Abstract Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit‐maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha −1 for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit‐maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha −1 at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha −1 for middle‐aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical signature characterization with hyperspectral imagery: novel deep learning model architectures and physically-motivated data augmentation techniques

The high spectral resolution afforded by Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) sensors is poised to bring unprecedented advancements to signature characterization applications. Thus far, much of the research in the machine learning field devoted to HSI applications has focused on a few specific tasks like land-use land-cover classification. In land classification tasks, spatial information is very important, and model architectures are often designed to leverage spatial contexts. However, it is unclear how well these spatially-tuned models will translate to tasks where spectral information is critical, like the detection and characterization of chemicals. In this work, we compare spectral models (inputs are 1D spectra) and spatial-spectral models (inputs are 3D cubes) in the context of predicting chemical concentration maps. We find that spatial-spectral models perform the best, though we find a wide range in performance across the different architectures tested. Additionally, we find that model performance is impacted by the availability of training data, particularly in scenarios where the training data doesn't fully capture the true variance of real-world conditions. We find that data augmentation can help mitigate sparse coverage of observed parameter space (e.g., seasonal or geographic variability in ground cover), and present augmentation strategies that are tailored to hyperspectral data.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗

DOE OSTI2021

ArborX

ArborX library tackles a problem of efficiently finding geometric objects that are close in space. Variations of this problem, such as finding the nearest neighbors of a point, or finding all objects within a certain distance, are inherent components of applications in many fields. The data may be large so that solving the problem efficiently may require significant computational resources, such as multiple processors or accelerators such as general purpose GPUs. ArborX' main advantage in its ability to solve large problems efficiently utilizing a combination of distributed and on-node parallelism. ArborX can be run efficiently on a wide variety of hardware, including GPUs from different vendors, which distinguishes it from other available libraries which typically choose only few of these. The other advantage is that it supports both types of user problems: spatial problems (useful for intersections and finding objects within certain distance), and nearest neighbor problems. ArborX also supports flexible interface in its interaction with a user. Particularly, it allows a user to call user's own function on a positive match, a functionality not rarely available in other libraries. ArborX implements construction and traversal algorithms using efficient tree structures, such as bounding volume hierarchy (BVH). At its core, it uses linear BVH for its low construction cost and sufficient quality. ArborX is written using C++, and is parallelized using the message passing interface (MPI) for the distributed communication, and the Kokkos library for on-node parallelism. This approach allows ArborX to be run on a wide variety of hardware, from common laptops and desktops to supercomputers while using the same codebase. ArborX also implements several advanced algorithms using geometric search, such as density-based clustering algorithm DBSCAN.

ECP↗

DOE OSTI2025

ArborX 2.0

ArborX library tackles a problem of efficiently finding geometric objects that are close in space. Variations of this problem, such as finding the nearest neighbors of a point, or finding all objects within a certain distance, are inherent components of applications in many fields. The data may be large so that solving the problem efficiently may require significant computational resources, such as multiple processors or accelerators such as general purpose GPUs. ArborX' main advantage in its ability to solve large problems efficiently utilizing a combination of distributed and on-node parallelism. ArborX can be run efficiently on a wide variety of hardware, including GPUs from different vendors, which distinguishes it from other available libraries which typically choose only few of these. The other advantage is that it supports both types of user problems: spatial problems (useful for intersections and finding objects within certain distance), and nearest neighbor problems. ArborX also supports flexible interface in its interaction with a user. Particularly, it allows a user to call user's own function on a positive match, a functionality not rarely available in other libraries. ArborX implements construction and traversal algorithms using efficient tree structures, such as bounding volume hierarchy (BVH). At its core, ArborX uses linear BVH for its low construction cost and sufficient quality. ArborX implements both spatial and nearest-neighbor traversal algorithms. ArborX also provides several clustering algorithms (minimum spanning tree, DBSCAN, HDBSCAN*), interpolation using minimum least squares and ray tracing. ArborX is written using C++, and is parallelized using the message passing interface (MPI) for the distributed communication, and the Kokkos library for on-node parallelism. This approach allows ArborX to be run on a wide variety of hardware, from common laptops and desktops to supercomputers while using the same codebase.

Prokopenko, Andrey [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2020

A terminology for in situ visualization and analysis systems

The term "in situ processing" has evolved over the last decade to mean both a specific strategy for visualizing and analyzing data and an umbrella term for a processing paradigm. The resulting confusion makes it difficult for visualization and analysis scientists to communicate with each other and with their stakeholders. To address this problem, a group of over 50 experts convened with the goal of standardizing terminology. This paper summarizes their findings and proposes a new terminology for describing in situ systems. An important finding from this group was that in situ systems are best described via multiple, distinct axes: integration type, proximity, access, division of execution, operation controls, and output type. This paper discusses these axes, evaluates existing systems within the axes, and explores how currently used terms relate to the axes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Impact of Vertical and Seasonal Variation in Leaf Traits on Simulating Soybean Canopy Photosynthesis via 1D and 3D Modeling

Accurate modeling of photosynthesis is crucial for predicting crop productivity and quantifying the carbon cycle in agroecosystems. Leaf traits are essential inputs for modeling canopy photosynthesis. Yet, many existing models still use fixed plant functional type (PTF)-based values to parameterize leaf traits under a big-leaf or two-big-leaf assumption, neglecting their vertical profiles and seasonal changes. This simplification may introduce significant uncertainties in estimating gross primary productivity (GPP). In this study, we simulated soybean GPP and tested the effects of vertical and seasonal variation in three key leaf photosynthetic traits: the maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C (Vcmax25), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and leaf mass per area (LMA) in the 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios models. Weekly field measurements were conducted during the growing season of 2024 to support the simulation. We designed ten leaf trait parameterization schemes by incorporating different combinations of vertical profiles and seasonal changes, while assuming homogeneous canopy architecture in both models. Our results revealed that Vcmax25 vertical and seasonal variation had the strongest influence on simulated GPP in both 1D and 3D models, while LCC and LMA effects were minimal. Particularly, the scheme with an empirically parameterized Vcmax25 profile achieved comparable performance to the scheme with the measured Vcmax25 profile. Both 1D-SCOPE and 3D-Helios accurately modeled GPP (SCOPE: R2 = 0.87, Bias = 0.55 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹; Helios: R2 = 0.9, Bias = 0.22 µmol m⁻² s⁻¹) under the most complex scheme, and their responses to vertical and seasonal variation in leaf traits were consistent, demonstrating the robustness of our findings. Based on our findings, we propose a scalable framework for parameterizing leaf traits to improve GPP simulations. This study contributes to improving the representation of leaf trait dynamics in canopy-level photosynthesis models, potentially enhancing our ability to predict crop productivity and understand agroecosystem carbon dynamics.

Photosynthesis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10 th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death’s ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

False Indications of Dose-Response Nonlinearity in Large Epidemiologic Cancer Radiation Cohort Studies; A Simulation Exercise

This study explores the likely prevalence of false indications of dose-response nonlinearity in large epidemiologic cancer radiation cohort studies (A-bomb survivors, INWORKS, Techa River). Reasons: Increasing numbers of tests of nonlinearity are being made in studies. Hypothesized nonlinear dose-response models have been justified to policy makers by analyses that rely in part on isolated findings that could be statistical fluctuations. After removing dose nonlinearity (linearization) by adjusting person-years of observation at each dose category, indications of nonlinearity, necessarily false, were counted in 5,000 randomized replications of six datasets. The average frequency of any false positive for five indicators of nonlinearity tested against a linear null was roughly 25% in Monte Carlo simulations per study, consistent with binomial calculations, increasing to ~50% within 6 studies assessed. Comparable frequencies were found using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection or multi-model averaging. False above-zero threshold doses were found more than 50% of the time, averaging to 0.05 Gy, consistent with findings in the 6 studies. Such bias, uncorrected, could distort meta-analyses of multiple studies, because meta-analyses can incorporate high P value findings. AIC-based correction for the extra threshold parameter lowered these false occurrences to 8 to 19%. Given the simulation rates, the possibility of false positives might be noted when isolated findings of nonlinearity are discussed in a regulatory context. When reporting a threshold dose with a P value > 0.05, it would be informative to note the expected high false prevalence rate due to bias.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Big Problem for Small Earthquakes: Benchmarking Routine Magnitudes and Conversion Relationships with Coda Envelope-Derived Mw in Southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude (M w ) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally M w <4) earthquakes has meant that magnitudes for these events remain plagued by a patchwork of inconsistent measurement scales. Because of this, magnitudes of small earthquakes and statistics derived from them can be biased. Furthermore, because small earthquakes are much more numerous than large ones, many applications, such as seismic hazard modeling, depend critically on analysis of events characterized by magnitudes other than M w . Therefore, to assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small earthquakes from northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Not surprisingly, we find significant differences among M L , m bLg , and M w for M ~2–4 earthquakes examined here. More troublingly, we find that relations designed to convert other magnitudes to M w , which are relied upon for important applications such as seismic hazard analysis, often increase rather than decrease this bias for our dataset. In our case study, we find that converted magnitudes can result in a systematic bias sometimes exceeding 0.5 magnitude units, a difference that typically corresponds to a factor of ~3 in seismicity rate. Moreover, we find a correspondingly large bias in Gutenberg–Richter b-values, controlled primarily by inaccurate magnitude scaling in the conversion relationships. Although this study focuses on a relatively small geographic area, we can expect that similar issues exist with varying severity in other regions. Therefore, magnitudes of small earthquakes and their associated statistics, including seismicity rates and b-values, should be treated with caution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Defending the Homeland: Growing Foreign Challenges to the U.S. Missile Defense Posture

The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) for Policy requested that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory conduct a Congressionally directed study on homeland missile defense, pursuant to Section 1692 of the fiscal year 2020 National Defense Authorization Act. In accordance with the statutory language, this study considers whether the security benefits obtained by deployment of homeland missile defenses of the United States are undermined or counterbalanced by adverse reactions of potential adversaries, and considers the effectiveness of homeland missile defense efforts of the United States to deter the development of ballistic missiles. Almost a half-century has elapsed since the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, and almost two decades since the former withdrew. Since withdrawing, the United States has sought to develop and deploy a layered missile defense system to defend against regional threats to U.S. and allied interests abroad and to counter limited threats to the U.S. homeland. As such, missile defense supports key national defense policy objectives. Protecting the U.S. homeland, forces abroad, allies, and partners. Deterring attacks against the United States, its allies, and partners. Assuring allies an strengthening U.S. diplomatic activities in peacetime and crisis. We offer five key findings: 1. The primary benefit of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system is the protection it provides the U.S. homeland against a limited but evolving rogue-state missile threat. While this system has never been tested in combat, it appears thus far to have effectively paced North Korea’s development and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In the absence of such a defensive capability, the United States would likely have been more heavily exposed to North Korean actions, would have operated at a much higher-risk posture, and would have had less negotiating room with which to navigate coercive tactics and crises. Its allies would have been more concerned about U.S. willingness in time of crisis and war to run the risks of protecting them. The GMD system also serves as a hedge against Iranian breakout. 2. Potential adversaries continue to develop long-range ballistic missiles despite deployment of a U.S. homeland missile defense system. This includes both rogue states and major power rivals whose long-range missile programs predated the deployment of U.S. missile defenses. While North Korea has continued its long-range missile developments and achieved an intercontinental capability, Iran has not yet reached this threshold. The broader proliferation of long-range missiles anticipated in the late 1990s has not materialized. 3. While Russia has used the existence of a U.S. homeland missile defense system as a justification for its substantial and continuing weapon modernization program, neither Russian force modernization nor the limited U.S. homeland missile defense system has altered the strategic balance. Russia has long considered U.S. missile defenses—both theater and homeland—as directed against its strategic forces and as a capability that could rapidly advance, thereby eroding Russian confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Russia’s political and military actions appear excessive and negatively impact areas such as arms control, but they do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 4. China’s expansion and diversification of nuclear and missile forces has been influenced by its concerns about U.S. homeland missile defense, but those concerns are only one of many factors in China’s force planning. Although China’s actions to preserve and expand its assured retaliation prospects have not fundamentally altered the strategic balance, its buildup and lack of transparency about its force modernization goals are troubling. Taken together, the aggregate pattern of China’s modernization activities over the past two decades strongly suggests a concerted effort to develop a modern military force commensurate with its intended geopolitical status. Whatever China’s legacy concerns over the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces, its ability to overwhelm the GMD system appears intact today and will be further strengthened in the years ahead as it continues its long-term modernization program. China’s political and military actions negatively affect U.S. security interests but do not undermine the primary benefit of the U.S. system cited in Key Finding 1. 5. The basic finding that benefits have not so far been undermined by adverse reactions is a function of circumstances that are increasingly in flux. The existing GMD-centered system is under increasing pressure from the pace and scope of North Korean missile deployments. The proposed “layered” system seeks to mitigate this impending capability gap in the near term and to complement future capabilities, such as the Next Generation Interceptor, when they come online. Given the pace of U.S. missile defense developments since 2000, it is possible that adversary advances in capability will outpace the U.S. system’s ability to adapt. Additionally, because this layered system is in principle more readily scaled, it will almost certainly be viewed skeptically by China and Russia. In a context of growing great-power security competition, the Department of Defense (DoD) should consider undertaking a broader net assessment of the U.S., Russian, and Chinese force balance.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗