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At least 415 records · Page 23

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NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Trajectory Errors in an Automated Terminal-Area Environment

A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to document the trajectory errors associated with use of an airplane's Flight Management System (FMS) in conjunction with a ground-based ATC automation system, Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) in the terminal area. Three different arrival procedures were compared: current-day (vectors from ATC), modified (current-day with minor updates), and data link with FMS lateral navigation. Six active airline pilots flew simulated arrivals in a fixed-base simulator. The FMS-datalink procedure resulted in the smallest time and path distance errors, indicating that use of this procedure could reduce the CTAS arrival-time prediction error by about half over the current-day procedure. Significant sources of error contributing to the arrival-time error were crosstrack errors and early speed reduction in the last 2-4 miles before the final approach fix. Pilot comments were all very positive, indicating the FMS-datalink procedure was easy to understand and use, and the increased head-down time and workload did not detract from the benefit. Issues that need to be resolved before this method of operation would be ready for commercial use include development of procedures acceptable to controllers, better speed conformance monitoring, and FMS database procedures to support the approach transitions.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Koshak, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Power Measurement Errors on a Utility Aircraft

Extensive flight test data obtained from two recent performance tests of a UH 60A aircraft are reviewed. A power difference is calculated from the power balance equation and is used to examine power measurement errors. It is shown that the baseline measurement errors are highly non-Gaussian in their frequency distribution and are therefore influenced by additional, unquantified variables. Linear regression is used to examine the influence of other variables and it is shown that a substantial portion of the variance depends upon measurements of atmospheric parameters. Correcting for temperature dependence, although reducing the variance in the measurement errors, still leaves unquantified effects. Examination of the power difference over individual test runs indicates significant errors from drift, although it is unclear how these may be corrected. In an idealized case, where the drift is correctable, it is shown that the power measurement errors are significantly reduced and the error distribution is Gaussian. A new flight test program is recommended that will quantify the thermal environment for all torque measurements on the UH 60. Subsequently, the torque measurement systems will be recalibrated based on the measured thermal environment and a new power measurement assessment performed.

Bousman, William G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): VHF Source Retrieval Algorithm and Error Analyses

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results. However, for many source locations, the Curvature Matrix Theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Associations between errors and contributing factors in aircraft maintenance

In recent years cognitive error models have provided insights into the unsafe acts that lead to many accidents in safety-critical environments. Most models of accident causation are based on the notion that human errors occur in the context of contributing factors. However, there is a lack of published information on possible links between specific errors and contributing factors. A total of 619 safety occurrences involving aircraft maintenance were reported using a self-completed questionnaire. Of these occurrences, 96% were related to the actions of maintenance personnel. The types of errors that were involved, and the contributing factors associated with those actions, were determined. Each type of error was associated with a particular set of contributing factors and with specific occurrence outcomes. Among the associations were links between memory lapses and fatigue and between rule violations and time pressure. Potential applications of this research include assisting with the design of accident prevention strategies, the estimation of human error probabilities, and the monitoring of organizational safety performance.

Professional Competence↗

NASA NTRS2000

Error, stress, and teamwork in medicine and aviation: cross sectional surveys

OBJECTIVES: To survey operating theatre and intensive care unit staff about attitudes concerning error, stress, and teamwork and to compare these attitudes with those of airline cockpit crew. DESIGN:: Cross sectional surveys. SETTING:: Urban teaching and non-teaching hospitals in the United States, Israel, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy. Major airlines around the world. PARTICIPANTS:: 1033 doctors, nurses, fellows, and residents working in operating theatres and intensive care units and over 30 000 cockpit crew members (captains, first officers, and second officers). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:: Perceptions of error, stress, and teamwork. RESULTS:: Pilots were least likely to deny the effects of fatigue on performance (26% v 70% of consultant surgeons and 47% of consultant anaesthetists). Most pilots (97%) and intensive care staff (94%) rejected steep hierarchies (in which senior team members are not open to input from junior members), but only 55% of consultant surgeons rejected such hierarchies. High levels of teamwork with consultant surgeons were reported by 73% of surgical residents, 64% of consultant surgeons, 39% of anaesthesia consultants, 28% of surgical nurses, 25% of anaesthetic nurses, and 10% of anaesthetic residents. Only a third of staff reported that errors are handled appropriately at their hospital. A third of intensive care staff did not acknowledge that they make errors. Over half of intensive care staff reported that they find it difficult to discuss mistakes. CONCLUSIONS: Medical staff reported that error is important but difficult to discuss and not handled well in their hospital. Barriers to discussing error are more important since medical staff seem to deny the effect of stress and fatigue on performance. Further problems include differing perceptions of teamwork among team members and reluctance of senior theatre staff to accept input from junior members.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1949

The Static-Pressure Error of a Wing Airspeed Installation of the McDonnell XF-88 Airplane in Dives to Transonic Speeds

Measurements were made, in dives to transonic speeds, of the static-pressure position error at a distance of one chord ahead of the McDonnell XF-88 airplane. The airplane incorporates a wing which is swept back 35 deg along the 0.22 chord line and utilizes a 65-series airfoil with a 9-percent-thick section perpendicular to the 0.25-chord line. The section in the stream direction is approximately 8-percent thick. Data up to a Mach number of about 0.97 were obtained within an airplane normal-force-coefficient range from about 0.05 to about 0.68. Data at Mach numbers above about 0.97 were obtained within an airplane normal-force-coefficient range from about 0.05 to about 0.68. Results of the measurements indicate that the static-pressure error, within the accuracy of measurement, is negligible from a Mach number of 0.65 to a Mach number of about 0.97. With a further increase in Mach number, the static-pressure error increases rapidly; at the highest Mach number attained in these tests (about M = 1.038), the error increases to about 8 percent of the impact pressure. Above a Mach number of about 0.975, the recorded Mach number remains substantially constant with increasing true Mach number; the installation is of no value between a Mach number of about 0.975 and at least 1.038, as the true Mach number cannot be obtained from the recorded Mach number in this range. Previously published data have shown that at 0.96 chord ahead of the wing tip of the straight-wing X-l airplanes, a rapid rise of position error started at a Mach number of about 0.8. In the case of the XF-88 airplane, this rise of position error was delayed, presumably by the sweep of the wing, to a Mach number of about 0.97.

Goodman, Harold R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Investigation of Measurement Errors in Doppler Global Velocimetry

While the initial development phase of Doppler Global Velocimetry (DGV) has been successfully completed, there remains a critical next phase to be conducted, namely the determination of an error budget to provide quantitative bounds for measurements obtained by this technology. This paper describes a laboratory investigation that consisted of a detailed interrogation of potential error sources to determine their contribution to the overall DGV error budget. A few sources of error were obvious; e.g., iodine vapor adsorption lines, optical systems, and camera characteristics. However, additional non-obvious sources were also discovered; e.g., laser frequency and single-frequency stability, media scattering characteristics, and interference fringes. This paper describes each identified error source, its effect on the overall error budget, and where possible, corrective procedures to reduce or eliminate its effect.

Meyers, James F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Effects of Thrust Uncertainty and Attitude Knowledge Errors on the MMS Formation Maintenance Maneuver

The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission will use a formation of four spinning spacecraft to study the Earth s magnetosphere. The science objectives of MMS require a near-regular tetrahedron formation to be maintained with side lengths ranging from ten kilometers to several thousand kilometers at orbit apogee. To reduce spacecraft complexity and cost, the current mission concept assumes MMS can achieve its formation goals through open-loop orbit control from the ground, rather than in-flight, closed-loop formation control that has been the subject of recent study. Significant analysis has been performed to provide optimal reference orbit and relative orbit designs. However, the feasibility of achieving these orbits, and maintaining them for an extended period of time in the presence of real world errors and perturbations has not been investigated. In particular, attitude knowledge and control errors, which may have a negligible effect on orbit control for conventional missions with spinning spacecraft, can contribute significant errors to the MMS orbits. In this work, a 6 degree-of-freedom (DOF) simulation is developed and used to analyze the effects of realistic errors on formation maintenance maneuver accuracy. Several realistic considerations including a finite-burn model, attitude perturbations, and thrust uncertainty are studied. The primary objective is to quantify the effects of realistic attitude and orbit control, knowledge, and actuator errors on the formation geometry by observing representative maneuver errors of a single spacecraft.

Tsai, Dean C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Effects of diffraction and static wavefront errors on high-contrast imaging from the Thirty Meter Telescope

High-contrast imaging, particularly direct detection of extrasolar planets, is a major science driver for the next generation of extremely large telescopes such as the segmented Thirty Meter Telescope. This goal requires more than merely diffraction-limited imaging, but also attention to residual scattered light from wavefront errors and diffraction effects at the contrast level of 10-8-10-9. Using a wave-optics simulation of adaptive optics and a diffraction suppression system we investigate diffraction from the segmentation geometry, intersegment gaps, obscuration by the secondary mirror and its supports. We find that the large obscurations pose a greater challenge than the much smaller segment gaps. In addition the impact of wavefront errors from the primary mirror, including segment alignment and figure errors, are analyzed. Segment-to-segment reflectivity variations and residual segment figure error will be the dominant error contributors from the primary mirror. Strategies to mitigate these errors are discussed.

segmented mirrors↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of TRMM Ground-Validation Radar-Rain Errors Using Rain Gauge Measurements

Ground-validation (GV) radar-rain products are often utilized for validation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spaced-based rain estimates, and hence, quantitative evaluation of the GV radar-rain product error characteristics is vital. This study uses quality-controlled gauge data to compare with TRMM GV radar rain rates in an effort to provide such error characteristics. The results show that significant differences of concurrent radar-gauge rain rates exist at various time scales ranging from 5 min to 1 day, despite lower overall long-term bias. However, the differences between the radar area-averaged rain rates and gauge point rain rates cannot be explained as due to radar error only. The error variance separation method is adapted to partition the variance of radar-gauge differences into the gauge area-point error variance and radar rain estimation error variance. The results provide relatively reliable quantitative uncertainty evaluation of TRMM GV radar rain estimates at various times scales, and are helpful to better understand the differences between measured radar and gauge rain rates. It is envisaged that this study will contribute to better utilization of GV radar rain products to validate versatile spaced-based rain estimates from TRMM, as well as the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement, and other satellites.

Wang, Jianxin↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Crucial Role of Error Correlation for Uncertainty Modeling of CFD-Based Aerodynamics Increments

The Ares I ascent aerodynamics database for Design Cycle 3 (DAC-3) was built from wind-tunnel test results and CFD solutions. The wind tunnel results were used to build the baseline response surfaces for wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers at power-off conditions. The CFD solutions were used to build increments to account for Reynolds number effects. We calculate the validation errors for the primary CFD code results at wind tunnel Reynolds number power-off conditions and would like to be able to use those errors to predict the validation errors for the CFD increments. However, the validation errors are large compared to the increments. We suggest a way forward that is consistent with common practice in wind tunnel testing which is to assume that systematic errors in the measurement process and/or the environment will subtract out when increments are calculated, thus making increments more reliable with smaller uncertainty than absolute values of the aerodynamic coefficients. A similar practice has arisen for the use of CFD to generate aerodynamic database increments. The basis of this practice is the assumption of strong correlation of the systematic errors inherent in each of the results used to generate an increment. The assumption of strong correlation is the inferential link between the observed validation uncertainties at wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers and the uncertainties to be predicted for flight. In this paper, we suggest a way to estimate the correlation coefficient and demonstrate the approach using code-to-code differences that were obtained for quality control purposes during the Ares I CFD campaign. Finally, since we can expect the increments to be relatively small compared to the baseline response surface and to be typically of the order of the baseline uncertainty, we find that it is necessary to be able to show that the correlation coefficients are close to unity to avoid overinflating the overall database uncertainty with the addition of the increments.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

General Tool for Evaluating High-Contrast Coronagraphic Telescope Performance Error Budgets

The Coronagraph Performance Error Budget (CPEB) tool automates many of the key steps required to evaluate the scattered starlight contrast in the dark hole of a space-based coronagraph. The tool uses a Code V prescription of the optical train, and uses MATLAB programs to call ray-trace code that generates linear beam-walk and aberration sensitivity matrices for motions of the optical elements and line-of-sight pointing, with and without controlled fine-steering mirrors (FSMs). The sensitivity matrices are imported by macros into Excel 2007, where the error budget is evaluated. The user specifies the particular optics of interest, and chooses the quality of each optic from a predefined set of PSDs. The spreadsheet creates a nominal set of thermal and jitter motions, and combines that with the sensitivity matrices to generate an error budget for the system. CPEB also contains a combination of form and ActiveX controls with Visual Basic for Applications code to allow for user interaction in which the user can perform trade studies such as changing engineering requirements, and identifying and isolating stringent requirements. It contains summary tables and graphics that can be instantly used for reporting results in view graphs. The entire process to obtain a coronagraphic telescope performance error budget has been automated into three stages: conversion of optical prescription from Zemax or Code V to MACOS (in-house optical modeling and analysis tool), a linear models process, and an error budget tool process. The first process was improved by developing a MATLAB package based on the Class Constructor Method with a number of user-defined functions that allow the user to modify the MACOS optical prescription. The second process was modified by creating a MATLAB package that contains user-defined functions that automate the process. The user interfaces with the process by utilizing an initialization file where the user defines the parameters of the linear model computations. Other than this, the process is fully automated. The third process was developed based on the Terrestrial Planet Finder coronagraph Error Budget Tool, but was fully automated by using VBA code, form, and ActiveX controls.

Marchen, Luis F.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Investigation of Primary Mirror Segment's Residual Errors for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The primary mirror segment aberrations after shape corrections with warping harness have been identified as the single largest error term in the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) image quality error budget. In order to better understand the likely errors and how they will impact the telescope performance we have performed detailed simulations. We first generated unwarped primary mirror segment surface shapes that met TMT specifications. Then we used the predicted warping harness influence functions and a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor model to determine estimates for the 492 corrected segment surfaces that make up the TMT primary mirror. Surface and control parameters, as well as the number of subapertures were varied to explore the parameter space. The corrected segment shapes were then passed to an optical TMT model built using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed Modeling and Analysis for Controlled Optical Systems (MACOS) ray-trace simulator. The generated exit pupil wavefront error maps provided RMS wavefront error and image-plane characteristics like the Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN). The results have been used to optimize the segment shape correction and wavefront sensor designs as well as provide input to the TMT systems engineering error budgets.

warping harness↗

NASA NTRS2015

Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation

State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted batch least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. The proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. This empirical error covariance matrix may be calculated as a side computation for each unique batch solution. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer and measurement error only problem.

Frisbee, Joe↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Complementary Note to 'A Lag-1 Smoother Approach to System-Error Estimation': The Intrinsic Limitations of Residual Diagnostics

Recently, this author studied an approach to the estimation of system error based on combining observation residuals derived from a sequential filter and fixed lag-1 smoother. While extending the methodology to a variational formulation, experimenting with simple models and making sure consistency was found between the sequential and variational formulations, the limitations of the residual-based approach came clearly to the surface. This note uses the sequential assimilation application to simple nonlinear dynamics to highlight the issue. Only when some of the underlying error statistics are assumed known is it possible to estimate the unknown component. In general, when considerable uncertainties exist in the underlying statistics as a whole, attempts to obtain separate estimates of the various error covariances are bound to lead to misrepresentation of errors. The conclusions are particularly relevant to present-day attempts to estimate observation-error correlations from observation residual statistics. A brief illustration of the issue is also provided by comparing estimates of error correlations derived from a quasi-operational assimilation system and a corresponding Observing System Simulation Experiments framework.

Fixed-lag smoothing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗