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At least 415 records · Page 23

Uncontrolled Learning: Codesign of Neuromorphic Hardware Topology for Neuromorphic Algorithms

Neuromorphic computing has the potential to revolutionize future technologies and our understanding of intelligence, yet it remains challenging to realize in practice. The learning-from-mistakes algorithm, inspired by the brain's simple learning rules of inhibition and pruning, is one of the few brain-like training methods. This algorithm is implemented in neuromorphic memristive hardware through a codesign process that evaluates essential hardware trade-offs. While the algorithm effectively trains small networks as binary classifiers and perceptrons, performance declines significantly with increasing network size unless the hardware is tailored to the algorithm. This work investigates the trade-offs between depth, controllability, and capacity—the number of learnable patterns—in neuromorphic hardware. This highlights the importance of topology and governing equations, providing theoretical tools to evaluate a device's computational capacity based on its measurements and circuit structure. The findings show that breaking neural network symmetry enhances both controllability and capacity. Additionally, by pruning the circuit, neuromorphic algorithms in all-memristive circuits can utilize stochastic resources to create local contrasts in network weights. Through combined experimental and simulation efforts, the parameters are identified that enable networks to exhibit emergent intelligence from simple rules, advancing the potential of neuromorphic computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Discrete Measurements of the Least Horizontal Principal Stress from Core Data: An Application of Viscoelastic Stress Relaxation

Summary The emerging Paradox Oil Play in southeastern Utah is among the most significant unconventional plays in the western USA. The mean total undiscovered oil resources within just the Pennsylvanian Cane Creek interval of the Paradox Basin are believed to exceed 215 million barrels. However, to date, less than 5% (~9 million barrels) of the total Cane Creek resource has been produced from fewer than 40 wells, and only approximately one-half of those are horizontal wells. More than 95% of production is from the central Cane Creek Unit (CCU). Natural fractures are a key feature of many production wells, but stimulation by induced hydraulic fractures is not consistently successful. We hypothesize that more effective production in this play will rely on better fundamental characterization, especially on better quantification of the state of stress. Approximately 110 ft of core, well logs, and a diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) were acquired from the State 16-2 well within the CCU. With these data, we applied two methods to constrain and clarify the state of stress. The first technique, the Simpson’s coefficient method, provides lower bounds on the two horizontal principal stresses and relies on only limited data. Alternatively, the viscoelastic stress relaxation (VSR) method is used to estimate the least horizontal principal stress, building on observations that principal stresses become more isotropic as the viscous behavior of a rock is more pronounced. Results of these two methods support the hypothesis that the state of stress in the CCU of the Paradox Basin is nearly lithostatic and isotropic. Other factors consistent with this hypothesis include high formation pore pressure, which tends to reduce the possible stress states by changing the frictional failure equilibrium; lack of induced fractures in the core, which should be present in the case of stress anisotropy; and interbedded halite layers, which given their high degree of ductility, probably lead to greater VSR for the entire sedimentary package.

Energy & Fuels↗

Power Supply Options for the Marpi Landfill, Saipan: Feasibility Study

The Marpi Landfill, located on the northern end of the island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), is powered by an on-site diesel generator that only operates when the landfill is open and staffed. The CNMI Office of Planning and Development (OPD) aspires to provide the Marpi Landfill with 24-hour power availability despite its remote location and to increase the use of sustainable energy within the CNMI. CNMI has a 20% target for renewable energy consumption, as documented in Sustainable Development Goal #7 in the Comprehensive Sustainable Development Plan (OPD 2021) and the renewable portfolio standard (GPO 2014). To accomplish these goals, the U.S. Department of Energy, through its Interagency Reimbursable Work Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, funded this feasibility study to assess and prioritize power supply options for the landfill. The availability of solar and wind resources varies seasonally, as does the load. A BESS can help to balance mismatches between generation and load on short (hourly or daily) timescales, but not across seasons. The microgrid scenarios evaluated for Marpi consider options for technology combinations that will both meet the load and utilize available resources, despite the challenge presented by higher loads and lower solar and wind availability during the rainy season, depicted in Figure ES-2. The seven scenarios evaluated are summarized in Table ES-1. Each scenario’s configuration was optimized to include component capacities that reduce capital and operating costs, meet the load, and minimize carbon emissions, as feasible. The costs and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) shown do not assume the use of any grant funding or incentives, although these options were also evaluated. To assist with decision-making, a prioritization matrix (Table ES-3) was created to compare the microgrid scenarios evaluated in this feasibility study according to various stakeholder priorities. The prioritization metrics were chosen based on discussions with OPD and will be finalized through stakeholder feedback. The scenarios were given a score between 1 and 7 for each prioritization metric (the lower the score, the higher the priority), and total scores were calculated using assigned weights based on the relative priority of each metric. The total scores were then ranked to produce a prioritized list of microgrid scenarios based on the metrics most important to the project stakeholders. As shown, scenario 4 (100 kW of solar PV, a 75 kW/300 kWh BESS, and 160 kW of diesel generation) ranks highest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fast, Controllable, and Modular Solid-State Circuit Breaker Design for Battery Management Systems

Electric power grid is experiencing a growing number of distributed and inertia-free generation resources. To facilitate the growing generation and load demands, and ensure stable operation, energy storage systems, especially behind-themeter-storage (BTMS), have emerged as a potential candidate. BTMS plays a vital role in the grid storage sector and supports high power charging for EVs. However, the potential of thermal runaway and associated safety concerns in the batteries can hamper their widespread adoption. In this work, we provide a solution for a fast and controllable discharge of a cell that was identified as a stressful/faulty, in the battery pack, and fast circuit breaking leveraging the Solid-State Circuit Breaker (SSCB) technology which provides active control over the cell connection as opposed to conventional passive solutions. Testing on the simulation platform successfully validated the concept, demonstrating its efficacy. Controlled discharge testing with 20Ah LiFePO4 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) cells from 1C-10C current rate on the hardware prototype corroborated simulation results, demonstrating design feasibility and providing essential data for its performance and thermal characteristics, while also revealing limitations that inform areas for further optimization.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Orbit Determination During Spacecraft Emergencies with Sparse Tracking Data - THEMIS and TDRS-3 Lessons Learned

This paper provides an overview of the lessons learned from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center s (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility s (FDF) support of the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) spacecraft emergency in February 2007, and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite-3 (TDRS-3) spacecraft emergency in March 2006. A successful and timely recovery from both of these spacecraft emergencies depended on accurate knowledge of the orbit. Unfortunately, the combination of each spacecraft emergency with very little tracking data contributed to difficulties in estimating and predicting the orbit and delayed recovery efforts in both cases. In both the THEMIS and TDRS-3 spacecraft emergencies, numerous factors contributed to problems with obtaining nominal tracking data measurements. This paper details the various causative factors and challenges. This paper further enumerates lessons learned from FDF s recovery efforts involving the THEMIS and TDRS-3 spacecraft emergencies and scant tracking data, as well as recommendations for improvements and corrective actions. In addition, this paper describes the broad range of resources and complex navigation methods employed within the FDF for supporting critical navigation activities during all mission phases, including launch, early orbit, and on-orbit operations.

Morinelli, Patrick J.↗

NASA KSC Intern Final Report - Virtual Reality in STEM Engagement

For this internship, I was a part of the multi-center NextGen STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) pilot. Specifically, I worked with the Developing Commercial Crew Program (CCP) Capabilities team that focuses on human spaceflight to the space station with NASA’s commercial partners. Composed of NASA employees and contractors (who are connected to KSC, JSC, and LaRC), they work to ensure that students will experience traditional classroom content and be immersed in emerging technologies in order to explore Commercial Crew missions and launch facilities. This group is in the process of creating educational products and resources to inspire the next generation to pursue STEM and to allow educators to have access to unique and enticing STEM activities. These products include: age-appropriate classroom lessons (including activity sheets and challenges) for kindergarten through twelfth grade; a CCP app and corresponding guide; learning experiences for students as well as educators; and virtual field trips and tours using NASA-created Virtual Reality (VR) videos and a custom VR app. My particular assignment was managing the VR equipment, developing an understanding of how to maximize the use of the equipment, creating documents that explain and convey the operations and procedures concerning the equipment (including lessons learned from equipment use), and training others to utilize the equipment effectively and correctly for conference events and group demonstrations. Over the course of this internship, I helped my team outline and learn essential procedures of operation for the VR equipment, solved technology problems that arose (due to the nature of creating unique products), and encouraged audiences at KSC and various conferences to consider using the CCP VR videos in their classrooms as an opportunity to engage and challenge the next generation to pursue STEM careers.

STEM↗

Geopolymer Lunar Concrete under Reduced-Pressure Curing and Vacuum Exposure

Geopolymer concrete has emerged as a promising material for constructing habitats, roads, landing pads, and other necessary infrastructure on the lunar surface. Proper in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) is an important aspect of any candidate lunar construction material. Geopolymer concrete is effective at ISRU, as the lunar regolith can be used in the “as found” condition and mixed with an alkaline solution, such as sodium silicate and sodium hydroxide, which could also be mostly produced in-situ. It is envisioned that any concrete material on the lunar surface would be deposited with additive manufacturing techniques and would require a temporary environmental enclosure to mitigate the harsh lunar environment during construction and curing, such as pressure and temperature. Data are needed to set a benchmark for the conditions to be achieved within the deployable environmental enclosure during printing, as well as the resultant material properties after the enclosure is removed. This novel study investigated the influence of reduced atmospheric pressures during the initial curing period on the compressive strength of geopolymer lunar concrete created with two types of lunar regolith simulant. The simulants used in the study represent the regolith for the lunar mare (OPRL2N) and lunar highlands (OPRH2N) regions. Results show a noticeable decline in strength with a reduction in pressure and visible degradation. After the deployable environmental enclosure is removed from the printed segment of infrastructure on the lunar surface, it would then be exposed to the harsh vacuum environment. To understand the importance of curing time required within the deployable enclosure before it is removed, samples were cast and cured for different lengths of time and then exposed to a vacuum chamber capable of achieving 100 mTorr. Control samples were also cast at the same time but left in a standard laboratory environment after curing. The weight change and compressive strength as a function of time in the vacuum chamber were monitored for up to 56 days. The results showed that exposure to the vacuum limits further reaction and strength gain in comparison to control samples left in the laboratory environment. This research is in strong alignment with the 2020 NASA Technology Taxonomy materials area (12.1) and the in-situ resource utilization area (7.1), as it provides necessary data on the geopolymer lunar concrete material to support safe and sustainable options for maintaining a human presence on the Moon.

Moon to Mars Planetary Autonomous Construction Tec↗

Deciphering Discrepancies: A Comparative Analysis of Docker Image Security

As the use of microservices continues to grow and become a foundational approach to architecting software solutions, ensuring the security of microservices is paramount. Docker images have emerged as the predominant solution to containerize microservices–and thus, Docker images are becoming a large attack surface. Thus, reducing vulnerabilities in Docker images will reduce microservice cyberattacks. A common way to find vulnerabilities in Docker images employs static analysis tools like Trivy and Grype. However, these tools frequently generate disparate vulnerability reports when analyzing the same Docker image, thus causing uncertainty in tool selection. We collected 927 Docker images, analyzed them with Trivy and Grype, and compared the vulnerabilities reported in each image. Among the 865 images found to have vulnerabilities, Trivy and Grype disagreed on both the number of vulnerabilities and the vulnerability IDs found therein. Since both tools interface with external vulnerability databases, some discrepancies can be attributed to how the tools interface with these external resources. The external vulnerability databases partially overlap and frequently contradict one another, thereby creating challenges for static analysis tool developers and end users alike. This New Ideas and Emerging Results (NIER) study contains new and critical information that practitioners need for selecting and using static analysis tools–given that increases in the use of Docker technologies means increases in the size of the attack surfaces.

Boles, Brittany [Montana State University]↗

Autonomous Tools for Attack Surface Reduction (Final Report)

The electric power grid is a complex critical infrastructure that forms the lifeline of modern society, and its secure and reliable operation is of paramount importance to national security and economic wellbeing. However, recent findings documented in authoritative sources indicate the threat of cyber-based attacks growing in numbers and sophistication. However, securing the grid against stealthy cyberattacks is a challenging task due to legacy nature of the infrastructure coupled with dynamic nature of threat landscape and ever-growing sophistication of the adversaries. Additionally, the grid’s attack surface continues to grow with the increased dependence on digital communications and control that now extends to each consumer through smart meters and distributed energy resources. Unfortunately, this expansive surface increases the grid’s vulnerability and further exposes critical control systems in both substations and control centers. To respond to this emerging need, we had successfully assembled an interdisciplinary team with academic- industry partnership to successfully conduct research, development, evaluation, demonstration, and commercialization of attack surface reduction tools, whose goal was to significantly reduce the cyber attack surface in the North American power grid. Our proposed project was a synergistic collaborative effort leveraging the synergistic expertise of the team members across power systems, cyber security and CPS security, testbeds, field deployments and demonstration, and successful commercialization. The following are the specific tasks that have been successfully completed two phases (2016-2020). Phase I: Task 1: Developed and implemented a robust Project Management and Data Management Plan, coupled with a well thought out Risk Mitigation Plan. Task 2.1: Developed a comprehensive framework that continually assesses and autonomously reduces the attack surface for the power grid control environment spanning across substations, control center and the SCADA network to significantly reduce the risks of cyber attacks. Task 2.2: Developed attack surface analysis techniques, metrics, and tools that assess the attack surface at multiple levels including the control center, substations, and the SCADA network. Task 2.3: Developed attack surface reduction techniques and tools that dynamically reduce attack surface and hence increase attacker’s cost without interfering in the critical functions of the system. Task 2.4: Prototyped, implemented, and quantitatively evaluated/validated the techniques and tools on a realistic industrial CPS security testbed environment by leveraging the unique resources of the team. Task 3: Developed Commercialization plan to transition the developed tools into power system industry stakeholders for a broader adoption by leveraging the expertise of our industrial members. Phase II: Task 4: Successfully completed field demonstration, verification, and evaluation of the effectiveness of the attack surface analysis and reduction techniques on a realistic utility testbed environment. This also involved the development of realistic scenarios, sound metrics, data sets, evaluation criteria, and documentation. Technology integration & Field demonstration: The project had significantly advanced the state-of-the-art research and practice in improving the cybersecurity of our nation’s power grid infrastructure against cyber threats. In particular, the proposed, designed, and deployed attack surface analysis and reduction algorithms and tools have contributed to significantly reducing the exposure and risk of the devices, substations, and the integrated SCADA/EMS/ DMS grid environment to cyber threat. Strong demonstration and evaluation techniques have verified the feasibility of the developed techniques on realistic cyber-physical testbeds and utility partner's real grid environment, and collaborative research and evaluation of attack surface reduction techniques (for wide-are monitoring and control) within a vendor (GE) EMS platform. The Attack Host Analyzer (AHA) tool that was developed through this project was made available through GitHub.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tradeoffs and Synergies in Tropical Forest Root Traits and Dynamics for Nutrient and Water Acquisition: Field and Modeling Advances

Vegetation processes are fundamentally limited by nutrient and water availability, the uptake of which is mediated by plant roots in terrestrial ecosystems. While tropical forests play a central role in global water, carbon, and nutrient cycling, we know very little about tradeoffs and synergies in root traits that respond to resource scarcity. Tropical trees face a unique set of resource limitations, with rock-derived nutrients and moisture seasonality governing many ecosystem functions, and nutrient versus water availability often separated spatially and temporally. Root traits that characterize biomass, depth distributions, production and phenology, morphology, physiology, chemistry, and symbiotic relationships can be predictive of plants’ capacities to access and acquire nutrients and water, with links to aboveground processes like transpiration, wood productivity, and leaf phenology. In this review, we identify an emerging trend in the literature that tropical fine root biomass and production in surface soils are greatest in infertile or sufficiently moist soils. We also identify interesting paradoxes in tropical forest root responses to changing resources that merit further exploration. For example, specific root length, which typically increases under resource scarcity to expand the volume of soil explored, instead can increase with greater base cation availability, both across natural tropical forest gradients and in fertilization experiments. Also, nutrient additions, rather than reducing mycorrhizal colonization of fine roots as might be expected, increased colonization rates under scenarios of water scarcity in some forests. Efforts to include fine root traits and functions in vegetation models have grown more sophisticated over time, yet there is a disconnect between the emphasis in models characterizing nutrient and water uptake rates and carbon costs versus the emphasis in field experiments on measuring root biomass, production, and morphology in response to changes in resource availability. Closer integration of field and modeling efforts could connect mechanistic investigation of fine-root dynamics to ecosystem-scale understanding of nutrient and water cycling, allowing us to better predict tropical forest-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Programmable interactions and emergent geometry in an array of atom clouds

Interactions govern the flow of information and the formation of correlations between constituents of many-body quantum systems, dictating phases of matter found in nature and forms of entanglement generated in the laboratory. Typical interactions decay with distance and thus produce a network of connectivity governed by geometry—such as the crystalline structure of a material or the trapping sites of atoms in a quantum simulator. However, many envisioned applications in quantum simulation and computation require more complex coupling graphs including non-local interactions, which feature in models of information scrambling in black hole, and mappings of hard optimization problems onto frustrated classical magnets. Here we describe the realization of programmable non-local interactions in an array of atomic ensembles within an optical cavity, in which photons carry information between atomic spins. By programming the distance dependence of the interactions, we access effective geometries for which the dimensionality, topology and metric are entirely distinct from the physical geometry of the array. As examples, we engineer an antiferromagnetic triangular ladder, a Möbius strip with sign-changing interactions and a treelike geometry inspired by concepts of quantum gravity. The tree graph constitutes a toy model of holographic duality, in which the quantum system lies on the boundary of a higher-dimensional geometry that emerges from measured correlations. Overall, our work provides broader prospects for simulating frustrated magnets and topological phases, investigating quantum optimization paradigms and engineering entangled resource states for sensing and computation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Optimality and Noise Resilience of Critical Quantum Sensing

We compare critical quantum sensing to passive quantum strategies to perform frequency estimation, in the case of single-mode quadratic Hamiltonians. We show that, while in the unitary case both strategies achieve precision scaling quadratic with the number of photons, in the presence of dissipation this is true only for critical strategies. We also establish that working at the exceptional point or beyond threshold provides suboptimal performance. This critical enhancement is due to the emergence of a transient regime in the open critical dynamics, and is invariant to temperature changes. When considering both time and system size as resources, for both strategies the precision scales linearly with the product of the total time and the number of photons, in accordance with fundamental bounds. However, we show that critical protocols outperform optimal passive strategies if preparation and measurement times are not negligible. Our results are applicable to a broad variety of critical sensors whose phenomenology can be reduced to that of a single-mode quadratic Hamiltonian, including systems described by finite-component and fully connected models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Sim-Situ: A Framework for the Faithful Simulation of in situ Processing

The amount of data generated by numerical simulations in various scientific domains led to a fundamental redesign of how the analysis and visualization of simulation outputs are performed. The throughput and capacity of storage subsystems have not evolved as fast as the computing power in extreme-scale supercomputers, making the classical post-hoc approach highly inefficient. In situ processing has then emerged as a solution in which simulation and data analysis/visualization are intertwined for better performance and greater interactivity.Determining the best allocation, i.e., how many resources to allocate to simulation and analysis respectively, mapping, i.e., where and at which frequency to run the analysis/visualization, and data transfer mode is a complex task whose performance assessment is crucial to the efficient execution of in situ processing. However, such a performance evaluation of different strategies usually relies either on directly running them on the targeted execution environments, which can rapidly become extremely time- and resource-consuming, or on resorting to simplified models of the components of an in situ application, which can lack of realism. In both cases, the validity of the performance evaluation is limited.In this paper, we present Sim-Situ, a simulation-based framework for the faithful performance evaluation of in situ processing strategies. We designed Sim-Situ to reflect the typical features of in situ processing systems. Thanks to its modular design, Sim-situ has the necessary flexibility to easily and faithfully evaluate the behavior and performance of various allocation, mapping, and data transfer strategies. We illustrate the simulation capabilities of Sim-Situ on a Molecular Dynamics use case. We study the impact of different strategies on performance and show how users can leverage Sim-Situ to determine interesting tradeoffs when adding analysis/visualization components to their application.

Honoré, Valentin↗

Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm on Different Qubit Systems

Solving optimization problems is critical across many research domains, but the high dimensionality of parameter spaces often poses significant challenges. The Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) has emerged as a promising approach for accelerating optimization in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era by leveraging both classical and quantum computational resources. However, its performance can vary depending on the underlying quantum hardware architecture. In this work, we evaluate the performance of QAOA on different quantum hardware platforms, specifically, superconducting transmon qubits and trapped-ion qubits, targetting real-world optimization problems formulated as fully connected Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) instances. We evaluate both the solution quality and time-to-solution using dense QUBO matrices. Furthermore, we show that large-scale problems, such as a 100-bit QUBO instance, can be effectively tackled by integrating quantum computing with high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study provides practical insights into the strengths and limitations of different qubit technologies and advances the application of quantum computing in solving real-world optimization problems.

Kim, Seongmin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000159063004)↗

PR100 One-Year Progress Summary Report: Preliminary Modeling Results and High-Resolution Solar and Wind Data Sets

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a 2-year study by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Grid Deployment Office and six national laboratories to comprehensively analyze stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's clean energy future. In Year 1 of the study, the PR100 team rigorously modeled and analyzed scenarios that meet Puerto Rico's renewable energy targets and achieve short-term recovery goals and long-term energy resilience. This report, which summarizes PR100 progress in Year 1, provides considerations that can inform potential funding and implementation decisions by key federal and local agencies and stakeholders. The summary report follows the publication in July 2022 of a PR100 Six-Month Progress Update (in English and Spanish), as well as public webinars in February 2022 to kick off the study and in July 2022 to present the 6-month update. A final written report and web-based visuals will be published in late 2023. All publications and public events associated with the study will be available in Spanish and English. This report is also available in Spanish https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85144.pdf.

100%↗

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Extraterrestrial consumables production and utilization

Potential oxygen requirements for lunar-surface, lunar-orbit, and planetary missions are presented with emphasis on: (1) emergency survival of the crew, (2) provision of energy consumables for vehicles, and (3) nondependency on an earth supply of oxygen. Although many extraterrestrial resource processes are analytically feasible, this study has considered hydrogen and fluorine processing concepts to obtain oxygen or water (or both). The results are quite encouraging and are extrapolatable to other processes. Preliminary mission planning and sequencing analysis has enabled the programmatic evaluation of using lunar-derived oxygen relative to transportation cost as a function of vehicle delivery and operational capability.

Sanders, A. P.↗