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At least 415 records · Page 23

Creating a Tools Ecosystem for Cross-Discipline Environmental Data Reuse

Reusing data is difficult even within well-defined science communities and only gets worse when combining data from multiple communities and disciplines. Through the lens of current work on constructing an environmental epidemiological data set from multiple disciplinary sources, we demonstrate the need for a new tool ecosystem to support heterogeneous Big Data science. Extending existing community standards for schemas and/or data formats through human auditing and wrangling of the data is not feasible at scale. This work therefore suggests new approaches for the multi-disciplinary communities to build a shared tool ecosystem for big data. We discuss both the larger context of data wrangling of epidemiological data sets for novel artificial intelligence algorithms and the specific lessons from working with these multi-disciplinary data sets. Adopting a more model-driven, automatable approach promises not only better efficiency but also removes key sources of human-generated errors and promotes reuse and reproducibility of science data.

Logan, Jeremy↗

Improving net ecosystem CO2 flux prediction using memory-based interpretable machine learning

Terrestrial ecosystems play a central role in the global carbon cycle and affect climate change. However, our predictive understanding of these systems is still limited due to their complexity and uncertainty about how key drivers and their legacy effects influence carbon fluxes. Here, we propose an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network for predicting net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and interpreting the influence on the NEE prediction from environmental drivers and their memory effects. We consider five drivers and apply the method to three forest sites in the United States. Besides performing the prediction in each site, we also conduct transfer learning by using the iLSTM model trained in one site to predict at other sites. Results show that the iLSTM model produces good NEE predictions for all three sites and, more importantly, it provides reasonable interpretations on the input driver's importance as well as their temporal importance on the NEE prediction. Additionally, the iLSTM model demonstrates good across-site transferability in terms of both prediction accuracy and interpretability. The transferability can improve the NEE prediction in unobserved forest sites, and the interpretability advances our predictive understanding and guides process-based model development.

Liu, Siyan↗

The Kokkos EcoSystem: Comprehensive Performance Portability For High Performance Computing

State of the art Engineering and Science codes have grown in complexity dramatically over the last two decades. As a consequence application teams have adopted more sophisticated development strategies, leveraging third party libraries, deploying comprehensive testing and using advanced debugging and profiling tools. In todays environment of diverse hardware platforms, these applications also desire performance portability - avoiding the need to duplicate work for various platforms - which makes it necessary that these tools and libraries also work across the various systems. The Kokkos EcoSystem provides that portable software stack. Based on the Kokkos Core Programming Model, the EcoSystem provides math libraries, interoperability capabilities with Python and Fortran, and Tools for analysing, debugging, and optimizing applications. In this paper we will provide an overview of the components, discuss some specific use cases, and highlight how co-designing these components enables a more developer friendly experience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Microservices Architecture Toolkit for Interconnected Science Ecosystems

Microservices architecture is a promising approach for developing reusable scientific workflow capabilities for inte- grating diverse resources, such as experimental and observational instruments and advanced computational and data management systems, across many distributed organizations and facilities. In this paper, we describe how the INTERSECT Open Architec- ture leverages federated systems of microservices to construct interconnected science ecosystems, review how the INTERSECT software development kit eases microservice capability develop- ment, and demonstrate the use of such capabilities for deploying an example multi-facility INTERSECT ecosystem.

Brim, Michael↗

Where old meets new: An ecosystem study of methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland

Reflooding formerly drained peatlands has been proposed as a means to reduce losses of organic matter and sequester soil carbon for climate change mitigation, but a renewal of high methane emissions has been reported for these ecosystems, offsetting mitigation potential. Our ability to interpret observed methane fluxes in reflooded peatlands and make predictions about future flux trends is limited due to a lack of detailed studies of methanogenic processes. In this study we investigate methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland in the Sacramento Delta, California. Furthermore, we use the stable-and radio-carbon isotopic signatures of wetland sediment methane, ecosystem-scale eddy covariance flux observations, and laboratory incubation experiments, to identify which carbon sources and methanogenic production pathways fuel methanogenesis and how these processes are affected by vegetation and seasonality. We found that the old peat contribution to annual methane emissions was large (~30%) compared to intact wetlands, indicating a biogeochemical legacy of drainage. However, fresh carbon and the acetoclastic pathway still accounted for the majority of methanogenesis throughout the year. Although temperature sensitivities for bulk peat methanogenesis were similar between open-water (Q 10 = 2.1) and vegetated (Q 10 = 2.3) soils, methane production from both fresh and old carbon sources showed pronounced seasonality in vegetated zones. We conclude that high methane emissions in restored wetlands constitute a biogeochemical trade-off with contemporary carbon uptake, given that methane efflux is fueled primarily by fresh carbon inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Divergent species-specific impacts of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO 2 on vegetation water relations in an ombrotrophic peatland

Boreal peatland forests have relatively low species diversity and thus impacts of climate change on one or more dominant species could shift ecosystem function. Despite abundant soil water availability, shallowly rooted vascular plants within peatlands may not be able to meet foliar demand for water under drought or heat events that increase vapor pressure deficits while reducing near surface water availability, although concurrent increases in atmospheric CO 2 could buffer resultant hydraulic stress. We assessed plant water relations of co-occurring shrub (primarily Rhododendron groenlandicum and Chamaedaphne calyculata) and tree (Picea mariana and Larix laricina) species prior to, and in response to whole ecosystem warming (0 to +9°C) and elevated CO 2 using 12.8-m diameter open-top enclosures installed within an ombrotrophic bog. Water relations (water potential [Ψ], turgor loss point, foliar and root hydraulic conductivity) were assessed prior to treatment initiation, then Ψ and peak sap flow (trees only) assessed after 1 or 2 years of treatments. Under the higher temperature treatments, L. laricina Ψ exceeded its turgor loss point, increased its peak sap flow, and was not able to recover Ψ overnight. In contrast, P. mariana operated below its turgor loss point and maintained constant Ψ and sap flow across warming treatments. Similarly, C. calyculata Ψ stress increased with temperature while R. groenlandicum Ψ remained at pretreatment levels. The more anisohydric behavior of L. laricina and C. calyculata may provide greater net C uptake with warming, while the more conservative P. mariana and R. groenlandicum maintained greater hydraulic safety. These latter species also responded to elevated CO 2 by reduced Ψ stress, which may also help limit hydraulic failure during periods of extreme drought or heat in the future. Along with Sphagnum moss, the species-specific responses of peatland vascular communities to drier or hotter conditions will shape boreal peatland composition and function in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A novel approach to partitioning evapotranspiration into evaporation and transpiration in flooded ecosystems

Reliable partitioning of micrometeorologically measured evapotranspiration (ET) into evaporation (E) and transpiration (T) would greatly enhance our understanding of the water cycle and its response to climate change related shifts in local-to-regional climate conditions and rising global levels of vapor pressure deficit (VPD). While some methods on ET partitioning have been developed, their underlying assumptions make them difficult to apply more generally, especially in sites with large contributions of E. Here, we report a novel ET partitioning method using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in combination with a range of environmental input variables to predict daytime E from nighttime ET measurements. The study uses eddy covariance data from four restored wetlands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA, as well as leaf-level T data for validation. The four wetlands vary in their vegetation make-up and structure, representing a range of ET conditions. The ANNs were built with increasing complexity by adding the input variable that resulted in the next highest average value of model testing R 2 across all sites. The order of variable inclusion (and importance) was: VPD > gap-filled sensible heat flux (H_gf) > air temperature (T air ) > friction velocity (u * ) > other variables. The model using VPD, H_gf, T air , and u * showed the best performance during validation with independent data and had a mean testing R 2 value of 0.853 (averaged across all sites, range from 0.728 to 0.910). In comparison to other methods, our ANN method generated T/ET partitioning results which were more consistent with CO 2 exchange data especially for more heterogeneous sites with large E contributions. Further, our method improves the understanding of T/ET partitioning. While it may be particularly suited to flooded ecosystems, it can also improve T/ET partitioning in other systems, increasing our knowledge of the global water cycle and ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wildfire‐induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America

Abstract Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO 2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO 2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗

Mycorrhizal effects on crop yield and soil ecosystem functions in a long‐term tillage and fertilization experiment

Summary It is well understood that agricultural management influences arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but there is controversy about whether farmers should manage for AM symbiosis. We assessed AM fungal communities colonizing wheat roots for three consecutive years in a long‐term (> 14 yr) tillage and fertilization experiment. Relationships among mycorrhizas, crop performance, and soil ecosystem functions were quantified. Tillage, fertilizers and continuous monoculture all reduced AM fungal richness and shifted community composition toward dominance of a few ruderal taxa. Rhizophagus and Dominikia were depressed by tillage and/or fertilization, and their abundances as well as AM fungal richness correlated positively with soil aggregate stability and nutrient cycling functions across all or no‐tilled samples. In the field, wheat yield was unrelated to AM fungal abundance and correlated negatively with AM fungal richness. In a complementary glasshouse study, wheat biomass was enhanced by soil inoculum from unfertilized, no‐till plots while neutral to depressed growth was observed in wheat inoculated with soils from fertilized and conventionally tilled plots. This study demonstrates contrasting impacts of low‐input and conventional agricultural practices on AM symbiosis and highlights the importance of considering both crop yield and soil ecosystem functions when managing mycorrhizas for more sustainable agroecosystems.

Peng, Zhenling↗

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought. We find regional asymmetries in summer ecosystem carbon fluxes: increased (reduced) sink in the northern (southern) areas affected by drought. These asymmetries can be explained by distinct legacy effects of spring growth and of water-use efficiency dynamics mediated by vegetation composition, rather than by distinct ecosystem responses to summer heat/drought. The asymmetries in carbon and water exchanges during spring and summer 2018 suggest that future land-management strategies could influence patterns of summer heat waves and droughts under long-term warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Defining the Sphagnum Core Microbiome across the North American Continent Reveals a Central Role for Diazotrophic Methanotrophs in the Nitrogen and Carbon Cycles of Boreal Peatland Ecosystems

Peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are ecosystem engineers that frequently predominate over photosynthetic production in boreal peatlands. Sphagnum spp. host diverse microbial communities capable of nitrogen fixation (diazotrophy) and methane oxidation (methanotrophy), thereby potentially supporting plant growth under severely nutrient-limited conditions. Moreover, diazotrophic methanotrophs represent a possible “missing link” between the carbon and nitrogen cycles, but the functional contributions of the Sphagnum-associated microbiome remain in question. A combination of metagenomics, metatranscriptomics, and dual-isotope incorporation assays was applied to investigate Sphagnum microbiome community composition across the North American continent and provide empirical evidence for diazotrophic methanotrophy in Sphagnum-dominated ecosystems. Remarkably consistent prokaryotic communities were detected in over 250 Sphagnum SSU rRNA libraries from peatlands across the United States (5 states, 17 bog/fen sites, 18 Sphagnum species), with 12 genera of the core microbiome comprising 60% of the relative microbial abundance. Additionally, nitrogenase (nifH) and SSU rRNA gene amplicon analysis revealed that nitrogen-fixing populations made up nearly 15% of the prokaryotic communities, predominated by Nostocales cyanobacteria and Rhizobiales methanotrophs. While cyanobacteria comprised the vast majority (>95%) of diazotrophs detected in amplicon and metagenome analyses, obligate methanotrophs of the genus Methyloferula (order Rhizobiales) accounted for one-quarter of transcribed nifH genes. Furthermore, in dual-isotope tracer experiments, members of the Rhizobiales showed substantial incorporation of 13 CH 4 and 15 N 2 isotopes into their rRNA. Our study characterizes the core Sphagnum microbiome across large spatial scales and indicates that diazotrophic methanotrophs, here defined as obligate methanotrophs of the rare biosphere (Methyloferula spp. of the Rhizobiales) that also carry out diazotrophy, play a keystone role in coupling of the carbon and nitrogen cycles in nutrient-poor peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metagenomic clustering links specific metabolic functions to globally relevant ecosystems

ABSTRACT Metagenomic sequencing has advanced our understanding of biogeochemical processes by providing an unprecedented view into the microbial composition of different ecosystems. While the amount of metagenomic data has grown rapidly, simple-to-use methods to analyze and compare across studies have lagged behind. Thus, tools expressing the metabolic traits of a community are needed to broaden the utility of existing data. Gene abundance profiles are a relatively low-dimensional embedding of a metagenome’s functional potential and are, thus, tractable for comparison across many samples. Here, we compare the abundance of KEGG Ortholog Groups (KOs) from 6,539 metagenomes from the Joint Genome Institute’s Integrated Microbial Genomes and Metagenomes (JGI IMG/M) database. We find that samples cluster into terrestrial, aquatic, and anaerobic ecosystems with marker KOs reflecting adaptations to these environments. For instance, functional clusters were differentiated by the metabolism of antibiotics, photosynthesis, methanogenesis, and surprisingly GC content. Using this functional gene approach, we reveal the broad-scale patterns shaping microbial communities and demonstrate the utility of ortholog abundance profiles for representing a rapidly expanding body of metagenomic data. IMPORTANCE Metagenomics, or the sequencing of DNA from complex microbiomes, provides a view into the microbial composition of different environments. Metagenome databases were created to compile sequencing data across studies, but it remains challenging to compare and gain insight from these large data sets. Consequently, there is a need to develop accessible approaches to extract knowledge across metagenomes. The abundance of different orthologs (i.e., genes that perform a similar function across species) provides a simplified representation of a metagenome’s metabolic potential that can easily be compared with others. In this study, we cluster the ortholog abundance profiles of thousands of metagenomes from diverse environments and uncover the traits that distinguish them. This work provides a simple to use framework for functional comparison and advances our understanding of how the environment shapes microbial communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ChatHPC: Building the Foundations for a Productive and Trustworthy AI-Assisted HPC Ecosystem

ChatHPC democratizes large language models for the high-performance computing (HPC) community by providing the infrastructure, ecosystem, and knowledge needed to apply modern generative AI technologies to rapidly create specific capabilities for critical HPC components while using relatively modest computational resources. Our divide-and-conquer approach focuses on creating a collection of reliable, highly specialized, and optimized AI assistants for HPC based on the cost-effective and fast Code Llama fine-tuning processes and expert supervision. We target major components of the HPC software stack, including programming models, runtimes, I/O, tooling, and math libraries. Thanks to AI, ChatHPC provides a more productive HPC ecosystem by boosting important tasks related to portability, parallelization, optimization, scalability, and instrumentation, among others. With relatively small datasets (on the order of KB), the AI assistants, which are created in a few minutes by using one node with two NVIDIA H100 GPUs and the ChatHPC library, can create new capabilities with Meta’s 7-billion parameter Code Llama base model to produce high-quality software with a level of trustworthiness of up to 90% higher than the 1.8-trillion parameter OpenAI ChatGPT-4o model for critical programming tasks in the HPC software stack.

Young, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000254484667)↗

NRIC Digital Engineering Ecosystem

The NRIC Digital Engineering Ecosystem is a software suite designed to eliminate procedural failures in the engineering lifecycle of complex projects. It focuses on improving the flow of scheduling data, safety information, engineering requirements, and CAD files among stakeholders of complex engineering projects. The project comprises software adapters that move engineering data from disparate software tools in and out of a central database. The ecosystem is designed to efficiently incorporate data sources from many different engineering toolsets, making it software agnostic, and adaptable to many different engineering applications.

Harris, BrennanK↗

Virus diversity and activity is driven by snowmelt and host dynamics in a high-altitude watershed soil ecosystem

Background: Viruses impact nearly all organisms on Earth, including microbial communities and their associated biogeochemical processes. In soils, highly diverse viral communities have been identified, with a global distribution seemingly driven by multiple biotic and abiotic factors, especially soil temperature and moisture. However, our current understanding of the stability of soil viral communities across time and their response to strong seasonal changes in environmental parameters remains limited. Here, we investigated the diversity and activity of environmental soil DNA and RNA viruses, focusing especially on bacteriophages, across dynamics’ seasonal changes in a snow-dominated mountainous watershed by examining paired metagenomes and metatranscriptomes. Results: We identified a large number of DNA and RNA viruses taxonomically divergent from existing environmental viruses, including a significant proportion of fungal RNA viruses, and a large and unsuspected diversity of positive single-stranded RNA phages ( Leviviricetes ), highlighting the under-characterization of the global soil virosphere. Among these, we were able to distinguish subsets of active DNA and RNA phages that changed across seasons, consistent with a “seed-bank” viral community structure in which new phage activity, for example, replication and host lysis, is sequentially triggered by changes in environmental conditions. At the population level, we further identified virus-host dynamics matching two existing ecological models: “Kill-The-Winner” which proposes that lytic phages are actively infecting abundant bacteria, and “Piggyback-The-Persistent” which argues that when the host is growing slowly, it is more beneficial to remain in a dormant state. The former was associated with summer months of high and rapid microbial activity, and the latter with winter months of limited and slow host growth. Conclusion: Taken together, these results suggest that the high diversity of viruses in soils is likely associated with a broad range of host interaction types each adapted to specific host ecological strategies and environmental conditions. As our understanding of how environmental and host factors drive viral activity in soil ecosystems progresses, integrating these viral impacts in complex natural microbiome models will be key to accurately predict ecosystem biogeochemistry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Files and scripts to support manuscript Shuman et al 2023 FATES-SPITFIRE ecosystem assembly across tropics

The dataset includes the parameter and domain files, relevant output files, and scripts to generate simulations and perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Shuman, JK et al 2023 “Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire-trap” in the tropics: Insights from FATES_15.0.0”. We have adapted the fire-behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE, for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture, and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire burned area and its effects, which could fee back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period, but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m-1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m-1. The results support a positive grass-fire feedback across the region, and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗