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At least 415 records · Page 23

Finite Element Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel in Dry Storage under Seismic Excitation

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is currently stored at independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs) at nuclear power plant sites across the US. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is currently working to understand the response of SNF during a seismic event. This investigation is part of a long-term effort by DOE to quantify the external mechanical loads on SNF. The SFWST program has recently completed campaigns evaluating SNF behavior during normal conditions of transport and in 30 cm package drop scenarios; both campaigns included a combination of testing and modeling. Likewise, the investigation into seismic response of SNF will include full-size shake table tests of a vertical storage overpack containing instrumented surrogate fuel assemblies, as well as pre- and post-test finite element modeling. This work focuses on the development of finite element models simulating the planned test configuration. The seismic response is calculated at two scales: at the package level, and at the fuel level. The package level model evaluates the behavior of the storage overpack and its contents in response to the ground motions of a representative earthquake. The motion of the package is input to the fuel level model, which consists of a detailed finite element model of a 17x17 or 16x16 pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly or of a 10x10 boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel assembly. The stress and strain on individual components such as fuel rods and guide tubes are extracted from this model. This work details the SNF response to various input ground motions, considering representative earthquakes in the Central and Eastern US under various site conditions. Also discussed is the development of a “reduced scope” finite element model of the SNF, which consists of a single fuel rod while retaining the dynamic response of the entire fuel assembly. This reduced scope model addresses the significant computational expense of modeling the SNF under long-duration input ground motions and facilitates simulating additional parameter variations of the model beyond the as-tested configuration. The modeling results provide important insight that will help to inform future testing and modeling efforts by the SFWST program to close the knowledge gap related to external loads on SNF.

Kadooka, Kevin↗

A Comprehensive Analysis of Real-World Accelerometer Data Quality in a Global Smartphone-based Seismic Network

The proliferation of low-cost sensors in smartphones has facilitated numerous applications; however, large-scale deployments often encounter performance issues. Sensing heterogeneity, which refers to varying data quality due to factors such as device differences and user behaviors, presents a significant challenge. In this research, we perform an extensive analysis of 3-axis accelerometer data from the MyShake system, a global seismic network utilizing smartphones. We systematically evaluate the quality of approximately 22 million 3-axis acceleration waveforms from over 81 thousand smartphone devices worldwide, using metrics that represent sampling rate and noise level. We explore a broad range of factors influencing accelerometer data quality, including smartphone and accelerometer manufacturers, phone specifications (release year, RAM, battery), geolocation, and time. Our findings indicate that multiple factors affect data quality, with accelerometer model and smartphone specifications being the most critical. In addition, we examine the influence of data quality on earthquake parameter estimation and show that removing low-quality accelerometer data enhances the accuracy of earthquake magnitude estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The 2017 Pohang, South Korea, Mw 5.4 main shock was either natural or triggered, but not induced

Understanding the cause of the November 2017 Pohang main shock is of considerable importance to the future of the geothermal industry because of its large magnitude compared to prior expectations based on case histories of other projects involving underground fluid injection. Of the three possibilities – induced, triggered or natural, “induced” can be ruled out based on the disproportionately large seismic moment of the main shock. Furthermore, whether natural or triggered, the source of seismic hazard at Pohang was tectonic strain accumulation, not fluid injection. Arguably, the most timely indicator of seismic hazard and risk in the environs of Pohang was the September 2016 Mw 5.4 Gyeongju earthquake, which was natural and located about 40 km south of Pohang along the same active fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MTUQ: a framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

SUMMARY We introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1-D and 3-D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface, accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: (1) a 2009 intraslab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; (2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and (3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multimodal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Observed Inefficiency of Explosions to Produce Large Aftershocks: Båth’s Law for Explosions is 2.5

Underground explosions are observed to produce fewer and smaller aftershocks than similar size earthquakes. The seismic magnitude difference $Δm_x$ between an explosion and its largest aftershock is an expression of Båth’s law for explosions. Based on an analysis of a compilation of aftershock studies from Soviet testing at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and observations from American testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), here we find that the average magnitude difference for explosions $\overline{Δm_x}$ is about 2.5. Based on the NNSS data, two standard deviations of $Δm_x$ is about 1.5. In all the cases studied, from ton to megaton yield, from shallow to overburied depth, and chemical or nuclear source, no explosion aftershock has been larger than the explosion that preceded it. In fact, the two events at the NNSS with the largest aftershock magnitudes relative to the explosion are associated with the collapse of the cavity created by the explosion. This is similar to observations from North Korean testing at the Punggye-ri Test Site, where the largest seismic event following the test is attributed to the collapse after the 2017 explosion and is from 0.8 to 2 magnitude units less than the mainshock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mid–height seismic isolation of equipment in nuclear power plants

An innovative seismic isolation solution for designers of safety-class equipment in advanced nuclear power plants is introduced. The test specimen was a tall, slender, carbon steel vessel that could represent a reactor vessel, steam generator, or a heat exchanger in a nuclear power plant: 240 inches tall, outer diameter of 60 inches, and wall thickness of 1 inch. The vessel was supported by three radial mounts at its mid-height, near its center of gravity, on a steel frame. The vessel was subjected to three-component ground motions using a 6DOF earthquake simulator. The specimen was filled with water for testing to indirectly account for the fluid and internal equipment present inside a prototype vessel. Three configurations were tested: non-isolated, isolated using single Friction Pendulum (SFP) bearings, and isolated using triple Friction Pendulum (TFP) bearings. The test results demonstrate that mid-height seismic isolation is practical and enables a significant reduction in horizontal spectral accelerations. Furthermore, these outcomes are not specific to the spherical sliding bearings used in the experiments but are broadly applicable to mid-height, seismically isolated equipment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantification of modeling uncertainty in the Rayleigh damping model

Understanding and accurately characterizing energy dissipation mechanisms in civil structures during earthquakes is an important element of seismic assessment and design. The most commonly used model is attributed to Rayleigh. This paper proposes a systematic approach to quantify the uncertainty associated with Rayleigh's damping model. Bayesian calibration with embedded model error is employed to treat the coefficients of the Rayleigh model as random variables using modal damping ratios. Through a numerical example, we illustrate how this approach works and how the calibrated model can address modeling uncertainty associated with the Rayleigh damping model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating HPC simulations and physical experiments to characterize the effects of gamma radiation on seismic protective devices

Seismic protective systems, composed of seismic isolators and dampers, can substantially reduce the effects of earthquake shaking on nuclear power plants and components therein. To enable the use of these devices to protect equipment inside a plant and close to a source of radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the University at Buffalo to characterize the effects of absorbed gamma dose on their mechanical properties. An early task in the project was to determine the exposure time required in the INL Foss Therapy Services (FTS) 60 Co gamma irradiator to achieve a target absorbed dose in the materials used to construct isolators and dampers, including fluids, polymers, composites, and metals. This task required the novel integration of high-performance computing (HPC), Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) simulations, and irradiation experiments using Fricke dosimetry. An MCNP model of the FTS irradiator at INL was developed and validated using Fricke dosimetry. Simulations of three experiments in the irradiator, two with Fricke vials only and one with Fricke vials and a large-size isolator, predicted the Fricke-measured absorbed dose rate to within 15% in all three cases, providing high confidence in the calculation of the gamma dose absorbed in the materials comprising the seismic protective devices. The simulations demonstrated that the effects of photon scattering on absorbed dose rate in the FTS irradiator are negligible for test articles installed close to the cobalt sources and near the rear of the irradiator. The validated MCNP model of the FTS irradiator is being used to support ongoing DOE-funded experiments on seismic protective devices and could be applied to future, non-seismic-related experiments. In conclusion, the novel validation process successfully deployed for the FTS irradiator at INL could be applied to other irradiators, requiring new MCNP models and simulations, and irradiation experiments using dosimeters.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Intensity measure adequacy assessment for nonlinear site response using Information Theory

Nonlinear site response modeling is a crucial aspect of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Site amplification models routinely rely on a rock intensity measure to characterize the strength of the bedrock motion. However, the adequacy of such intensity measures towards predicting amplifications across the oscillator period range has not been investigated in the literature. This paper analyzes the adequacy of rock intensity measures using state of the art criterion established in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering and techniques from Information Theory. The efficiency and the sufficiency of several rock intensity measure are assessed. It was found that spectral accelerations at low periods usually are adequate for predicting amplifications across the period range. This supports the current practice of using Peak Ground Acceleration in Ground Motion Models. However, for extremely soft sites, which demonstrate nonlinear effects well into the period range, it is better practice to ensure that amplification and spectral acceleration share the same oscillator period. Lastly, for predicting the peak shear strain (an important parameter that controls nonlinearity of site response), Peak Ground Velocity is generally adequate, and this conclusion is in line with the definition of proxy shear strain.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Absorbing boundary conditions in material point method adopting perfectly matched layer theory

This study focuses on solving the numerical challenges of imposing absorbing boundary conditions for dynamic simulations in the material point method (MPM). To attenuate elastic waves leaving the computational domain, the current work integrates the Perfectly Matched Layer (PML) theory into the implicit MPM framework. The proposed approach introduces absorbing particles surrounding the computational domain that efficiently absorb outgoing waves and reduce reflections, allowing for accurate modeling of wave propagation and its further impact on geotechnical slope stability analysis. The study also includes several benchmark tests to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, such as several types of impulse loading and symmetric and asymmetric base shaking. The conducted numerical tests also demonstrate the ability to handle large deformation problems, including the failure of elasto-plastic soils under gravity and dynamic excitations. The findings extend the capability of MPM in simulating continuous analysis of earthquake-induced landslides, from shaking to failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Volumetric and shear strain localization throughout triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Deformation localization is a widely observed, but rarely quantified process in the crust. Recent observations suggest that the localization of seismicity and fracture networks can help identify the approach to catastrophic failure. Here, we quantify the localization processes of the volumetric and deviatoric strain components in twelve triaxial compression experiments imaged with X-ray tomography. We capture three-dimensional images of the rock cores during triaxial compressing toward failure, and then calculate the local strain components using digital volume correlation. The divergence and curl of the incremental displacement vector field provide the volumetric and deviatoric components of the strain field. We quantify localization using the proportion of the rock occupied by high magnitudes of the volumetric and deviatoric strains, and the Gini coefficient of these high magnitude strains, which measures the deviation from a uniform process. We find that the vast majority, but not all, of the experiments experience strain localization toward failure. The rocks typically experience their maximum degree of strain localization not immediately preceding failure, but on average at 90% of the failure stress. The volumetric strain tends to localize more than the deviatoric strain. Finally, these observations support using the localization of the volumetric strain, along with the deviatoric strain, to identify the evolution of the precursory phase preceding earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Distinguishing Single and Linked Ruptures in the Laboratory and Nature

Earthquakes can grow either monotonically from a single, stressed patch or through linking multiple stressed regions. The distinction has implications for magnitude predictability with single ruptures requiring knowledge of the local stress state, while linked ruptures require knowing the global stress and energy distribution. Here, we use a laboratory fault that allows direct observation of slip to determine which fault conditions promote linked ruptures, and how to observationally evaluate their likelihood. Higher concentrations of normal stress due to increased normal force, applied stress asperities, or larger heterogeneity between the samples, all lead to significant increases in linked rupture likelihood. The mean radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF) of large events is an excellent proxy for linked event likelihood, and a combination of REEF and duration can identify the rupture style of some but not all events. The results imply that globally observed variations of REEF can be interpreted as variations in stress concentration.

earthquakes↗

Metamorphism-facilitated faulting in deforming orthopyroxene: Implications for global intermediate-depth seismicity

Significance The exothermic metamorphic reaction in orthopyroxene (Opx), a major component of oceanic lithospheric mantle, is shown to trigger brittle failure in laboratory deformation experiments under conditions where garnet exsolution takes place. The reaction product is an extremely fine-grained material, forming narrow reaction zones that are mechanically weak, thereby facilitating macroscopic faulting. Oceanic subduction zones are characterized by two separate bands of seismicity, known as the double seismic zone. The upper band of seismicity, located in the oceanic crust, is well explained by dehydration-induced mechanical instability. Our newly discovered metamorphism-induced mechanical instability provides an alternative physical mechanism for earthquakes in the lower band of seismicity (located in the oceanic lithospheric mantle), with no requirement of hydration/dehydration processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the anatomy of acoustic emission

Abrupt, local frictional fault failure comprises a displacement that is normally accompanied by acoustic emission (AE)—an impulsive elastic wave broadcast with an amplitude proportional to particle velocity. The aggregate of these displacements is the basic fault motion. In laboratory shear experiments, the examination of a sequence of laboratory earthquakes includes continuous measurements of fault motion and the associated AE that is broadcast. From these measurements, connections between the fault motion and cumulative sum of the AE amplitude can be identified. The composition of the AE broadcasts reveals inhomogeneity in the fault mechanical structure from which they arise. This inhomogeneity can be decomposed into a time invariant AE component and an articulated AE component. The articulated AE component serves as a “state of the fault diagnostic” that follows a distinctive pattern to fault failure. Thus, the articulated AE component can be used directly to monitor the state of the fault.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DEEPEN Leapfrog Geodata Model Cleaned and Reformatted Exploration Datasets from Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) conducted at Newberry Volcano for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), existing geoscientific exploration datasets needed to be acquired, cleaned, reformatted, and assembled in Leapfrog Geothermal. This GDR submission includes all of the cleaned and reformatted (X (m), Y (m), elevation (m), processed data values) datasets used to build the Leapfrog Geodata model. Existing datasets were acquired from the GDR, from AltaRock, and from other sources. This yielded the following datasets: - Digital elevation model produced from LiDAR data by Ramsey and Bard, 2016 - MT surveys from 2006, 2011, 2014, and 2017 (including single inversions) - Gravity surveys from 2006, 2007, and 2011 (including single) - Earthquake catalogs from PNSN, LLNL, and the Newberry EGS Demonstration project - Seismic velocity model from Templeton et al., 2014 - The Frone, 2015 temperature model and a new one produced through extrapolating downhole temperature measurements and the SMU temperature at depth maps. Two versions of the new model are provided: 250 m spacing and 500 m spacing - EarthVision geologic model with alteration from Moser et al., 2016 - Well data from EGS well 55-29, deep geothermal wells, coreholes (GEO N-2 through 5) and several thermal gradient holes - "Newberry Well Data:" Location, simple lithology, directional survey data, and temperature data for the 34 wells and coreholes used in the Newberry PFA Although there are additional 2D datasets available in the area, such as aeromagnetic surveys, these were not included in the analysis. While it may be possible to project these datasets into three dimensions by assuming the surface measurements do not vary with depth, this method is associated with high uncertainty. Preexisting inversions of these data were unavailable, and inverting additional geophysical datasets is outside the scope of this project.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for Low-Temperature Resources in the Denver Basin

This dataset is part of an effort to highlight the advantages of incorporating low-temperature (< 150 C) geothermal resource evaluation into the implementation of combined heat and power (CHP), and geothermal direct use (GDU) technologies (e.g., space heating and/or cooling). For this Denver Basin example, resource favorability maps were created to identify potentially favorable areas for further geothermal exploration and are provided here. Favorability was based on three types of data: (1) geologic, (2) economic, and (3) risk. This raw data is also provided below. Geologic data include bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) from oil and gas wells, water co-production volumes from oil and gas wells, well groundwater levels, hot spring locations, temperatures, and chemistries, faults, and earthquakes. Economic feasibility data include population, thermal energy demand, infrastructure, and roads. Risk data (which includes data on excluded areas) include flood plains, protected lands (e.g. wildlife conservation areas, national parks). The included report describes this project in detail, covering workflows, relevant datasets, Python code, and both common and composite maps used to create low-temperature geothermal resource favorability maps for the Denver Basin, which extends across Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming. The figures in this report include: maps of the original datasets; maps of transformed data and derived parameters (such as the geothermal gradient or thermal conductivity); results of uncertainty analyses; results of data completeness (using the GeoRePORT tool); examples of the data combination and processing (using the geoPFA Python library, which is introduced in the attached report); favorability maps for each criteria; and a final combined favorability map. This project is designed to facilitate future deployment of CHP and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗