Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “EXPECTATION VALUE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Chain flexibility and glass transition temperatures of poly(n-alkyl (meth)acrylate)s: Implications of tacticity and chain dynamics

The relationship between chain microstructure and glass transition temperature (T g ) is complicated for poly(alkyl methacrylate)s and poly(alkyl acrylate)s. Despite intensive studies, relationships between the structures of these polymers and their properties, including solution characteristics and T g , are still controversial. Solution properties, chain conformations, including Flory's characteristic ratio (C ∞ ), persistence length (l p ), and chain diameters, and T g are reported for series of poly(n-alkyl acrylate)s and poly(n-alkyl methacrylate)s having alkyl side chain lengths (n) ranging from 1 to 10 carbons in length, with uniform and well-characterized tacticities. Chain flexibilities of both series of polymers decrease as n increases, reflecting increased hindrances to rotation about backbone bonds as side chains become longer. Conversely, the T g s for both series of polymers decrease substantially as n increases, reflecting the greater side chain mobilities of long alkyl substituents. For shorter alkyl chain lengths, T g s for the poly(n-alkyl acrylate)s are much lower than for the corresponding poly(n-alkyl methacrylate)s, a difference which has been attributed in the past to the presumed reduced chain flexibility of polymethacrylates due to the presence of the α-methyl substituent. However, contrary to such expectations, C ∞ and l p values for these two series of polymers are nearly identical at a given n value, except for the longest n-alkyl substituents. Instead, the differences in T g may be attributed to the differences in tacticity of the two series – almost ideally atactic for the poly(n-alkyl acrylate)s but high in syndiotacticity for the poly(n-alkyl methacrylate)s. The T g s for the two series of polymers approach that of polyethylene at longer alkyl chain lengths. In addition, the effects of tacticity and chain dynamics on C ∞ , l p , and T g of poly(methyl methacrylate) is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tuning Perovskites’ Hydration-Induced Chemical Expansion with Octahedral Tilt Angles

Hydration-induced strains in proton-conducting oxides compromise chemo-mechanical stability when these materials are applied in protonic ceramic electrochemical cells. Here, to develop design principles for zero-strain materials, we systematically studied the hydration coefficients of chemical expansion (CCEs) in perovskite (Sr, Ba)(Ce, Zr, Y)O 3–x solid solutions with in situ dilatometry and thermogravimetric analysis in the range of 430–630 °C. By including and decoupling a wide range of tolerance factors and lattice parameters, we were able to identify a minimum in hydration CCEs (0–0.02) at intermediate tolerance factor values (t ≈ 0.95). Conversely, despite expectations of lower CCEs in larger unit cells, no general trend in CCE versus lattice parameter was found, and opposite trends could be seen for Sr(Ce, Zr, Y)O 3–x versus Ba(Ce, Zr, Y)O 3–x separately. In situ neutron diffraction (ND) enabled atomistic insight. Upon decreasing t, chemical strain anisotropy increased, but this trend did not match the U-shaped dependence of macroscopic CCEs on t. Instead, perovskites with intermediate t, hosting intermediate octahedral tilt angles in the nominally dry state, underwent the largest change in the B–O–B angles during hydration. Accommodating hydration through decreasing B–O–B angles is beneficial because it does not result in large lattice parameter changes. We propose an intermediate tolerance factor as a simple structural descriptor to enable near-zero hydration strains in proton-conducting perovskites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic Properties of Tetravalent Pu in the Perovskites BaPuO 3 and SrPuO 3

BaPuO 3 and SrPuO 3 were synthesized, and their structures were refined in the orthorhombic space group Pbnm , a common distortion from the classic $Pm\bar{3}$m over barm cubic perovskite. Magnetic-susceptibility measurements, obtained as a function of temperature over the range of 1.8-320 K, exhibit temperature-dependent behavior, with evidence of long-range magnetic order at temperatures higher than their lanthanide and actinide analogues: BaPuO 3 below 164(1) K and SrPuO 3 below 76(1) K. Effective moments of 1.66(10)μ B for BaPuO 3 and 1.84(8)μ B for SrPuO 3 were obtained by fitting their paramagnetic susceptibilities using the Curie-Weiss law. Further, both are below the free-ion value of 2.68 μ B expected for a Pu 4+ 5 $\mid$ 4 ground level. Ab initio wave function calculations, performed at the relativistic complete active space level including spin-orbit coupling and with an embedded cluster approach that neglects interactions between Pu centers, were used to generate embedded-cluster Pu 4+ magnetic susceptibilities. The calculations agree well with experimental data at higher temperatures, providing evidence that a single-ion representation is sufficient to account for the observed paramagnetic behavior without the need to invoke charge transfer, disproportionation, strong covalent bonding, or other more complex electronic behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Recommendation of Optimal Tuning Scheme for Range-Separated Hybrid Functionals in Solution-Phase UV/Vis Absorption Energy Prediction

Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) combined with range-separated hybrid (RSH) functionals and a tuned range-separation parameter γ offers a computationally economical approach for high-throughput excited- state property predictions. The γ-tuning procedure in the gas phase is well established. However, no agreement on the best γ- tuning procedure has been made when considering the solvent effect with implicit solvent models like the polarizable continuum model (PCM). To answer that question, this study created a diverse dataset with 937 molecules with experimental solutionphase UV/vis absorption spectra. Three γ-tuning methods, the gasphase γ-tuning (GPγT), the partial vertical γ-tuning (PVγT), and the strict vertical γ-tuning (SVγT), were evaluated for the ωPBEh functional over the entire dataset. Additional benchmarks are done for the optimally tuned screened range-separated hybrid combined with the PCM approach (SRSH-PCM) and the solvation-mediated tuning procedure (sol-med-OT). Our findings revealed that the optimal γ-values obtained by the PVγT and the SVγT are significantly smaller than the GPγT. This trend holds consistently across all molecules in our dataset, and we explained the origin of this phenomenon. TDDFT calculations with PVγTand SVγT-tuned γ-values and default global Fock exchange fraction achieve superior performance compared to those using GPγTtuned or default γ and slightly outperform SRSH-PCM and sol-med-OT with similar or lesser computational cost. Furthermore, we found that the smaller γ-values from SVγT captured the expected 1/(εR) asymptotic behavior in the solution phase, resulting in accurate prediction of solution-phase CT excitations, consistent with the screened asymptote behavior encoded in SRSH-PCM. These results show that SVγT is the best scheme for high-throughput UV/vis absorption spectrum calculations using the ωPBEh functional from a data-driven perspective.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of spent nuclear fuel canister surface roughness using surface replicating molds

In this study we present a replication method to determine surface roughness and to identify surface features when a sample cannot be directly analyzed by conventional techniques. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an unused spent nuclear fuel dry storage canister to determine variation across different surface features. In this study, an initial material down-selection was performed to determine the best molding agent and determined that non-modified Polytek PlatSil23-75 provided the most accurate representation of the surface while providing good usability. Other materials that were considered include Polygel Brush-On 35 polyurethane rubber (with and without Pol-ease 2300 release agent), Polytek PlatSil73-25 silicone rubber (with and without PlatThix thickening agent and Pol-ease 2300 release agent), and Express STD vinylpolysiloxane impression putty. The ability of PlatSil73-25 to create an accurate surface replica was evaluated by creating surface molds of several locations on surface roughness standards representing ISO grade surfaces N 3 , N 5 , N 7 , and N 8 . Overall, the molds were able to accurately reproduce the expected roughness average (R a ) values, but systematically over-estimated the peak-valley maximum roughness (R z ) values. Using a 3D printed sample cell, several locations across the stainless steel spent nuclear fuel canister were sampled to determine the surface roughness. These measurements provided information regarding variability in normal surface roughness across the canister as well as a detailed evaluation on specific surface features (e.g., welds, grind marks, etc.). The results of these measurements can support development of dry storage canister ageing management programs, as surface roughness is an important factor for surface dust deposition and accumulation. This method can be applied more broadly to different surfaces beyond stainless steel to provide rapid, accurate surface replications for analytical evaluation by profilometry.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

High critical current STAR ® wires with REBCO tapes by advanced MOCVD

RE–Ba–Cu–O (REBCO, RE = rare earth) symmetric tape round (STAR ® ) wires of 1.5–2.5 mm diameter have been fabricated with 4–12 strands of symmetric REBCO tape made by advanced metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD). 1.5 mm diameter STAR ® wires made with just four advanced MOCVD tape strands are able to sustain nearly the same critical current (I c ) as 2.5 mm diameter wires made with 12 commercial-grade tape strands. An I c of 1070 A, corresponding to an engineering current density (J e ) of 597 A mm –2 , has been demonstrated at 4.2 K, 30 T in 1.5 mm diameter, four-strand wire at a bend radius of 15 mm. This I c value exactly matches the Ic expected from the lift factor of the tape strands used in the wire. The 2.5 mm diameter STAR ® wires made with 12 advanced MOCVD tape strands exhibit an I c of 1075 A at 77 K, self-field and sustained currents of 2500–2750 A at 4.2 K, 30 T before burnout, corresponding to a J e greater than 500 A mm –2 . Finally, these results show that the cost of STAR ® wires can be substantially reduced using fewer tape strands of high-performance advanced MOCVD tapes and that the superior bend performance of STAR ® wires can be maintained, even using 12 strands of advanced MOCVD tapes with 4 μm thick REBCO films.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of thermal and fast-ion transport to beam ion population, rotation and T e / T i in the DIII-D steady state hybrid scenario

The thermal and fast-ion transport properties of DIII-D steady-state hybrid discharges with normalized beta β N ≳ 3 are studied at low injected torque and an increased electron to ion temperature ratio T e / T i . Linear stability analysis performed with the TGLF turbulent code indicates that a high-k mode is usually dominant at smaller radii, whereas a low-k mode is usually dominant at larger radii in these plasmas. A reduction in the net injected torque from 8.6 to 4.3 N-m leads to reduced E × B shear and hence, an enhanced turbulence that was observed on the Doppler backscattering diagnostic and was also computed with TGLF. As T e / T i in the core was increased from 0.57 to 0.66 by adding electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) to these plasmas, higher levels of transport are observed with increased high-k modes indicated by TGLF. The fast-ion transport level varied over an order of magnitude in these discharges depending on whether Alfvén eigenmodes, fishbones, or no instabilities were observed. Hybrid plasmas with fishbones have decreased fast-ion transport, compared to plasmas with Alfvén eigenmodes, since they are resonant with a smaller portion of phase space and their resonance is farther from the wall. This reduction in fast-ion transport with ECCD mitigates the increase in turbulent transport, resulting in higher performance than expected during strong electron heating. Similarly, the lowest fast-ion transport was observed in the low torque plasma, which also led to better than expected performance at this torque value. Finally, the thermal and fast-ion transport changes observed as the torque/rotation and T e / T i are varied indicate possible methods for transferring this scenario to a reactor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three point amplitudes in matrix theory

We compute the three graviton amplitude in the Banks-Fischler-Shenker-Susskind matrix model for M-theory. Even though the three point amplitude is determined by super Poincare invariance in eleven dimensional M-theory, it requires a non-trivial computation in the matrix model. We consider a configuration where all three gravitons carry non-zero longitudinal momentum. To simplify the problem, we compactify one additional dimension and relate the amplitude to a supersymmetric index computation. Here, we find agreement with the expected answer even at finite values of N.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of a hybrid approach to the hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment

An accurate calculation of the leading-order hadronic vacuum polarization (LOHVP) contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon ( a μ ) is key to determining whether a discrepancy, suggesting new physics, exists between the Standard Model and experimental results. This calculation can be expressed as an integral over Euclidean time of a current-current correlator G ( t ) , where G ( t ) can be calculated using lattice QCD or, with dispersion relations, from experimental data for e + e − → hadrons . The BMW/DMZ collaboration recently presented a hybrid approach in which G ( t ) is calculated using lattice QCD for most of the contributing t range, but using experimental data for the largest t (lowest energy) region. Here we study the advantages of varying the position t = t 1 separating lattice QCD from data-driven contributions. The total LOHVP contribution should be independent of t 1 , providing both a test of the experimental input and the robustness of the hybrid approach. We use this criterion and a correlated fit to show that Fermilab/HPQCD/MILC lattice QCD results from 2019 strongly favor the CMD-3 cross section data for e + e − → π + π − over a combination of earlier experimental results for this channel. Further, the resulting total LOHVP contribution obtained is consistent with the result obtained by BMW/DMZ, and supports the scenario in which there is no significant discrepancy between the experimental value for a μ and that expected in the Standard Model. We then discuss how improved lattice results in this hybrid approach could provide a more accurate total LOHVP across a wider range of t 1 values with an uncertainty that is smaller than that from either lattice QCD or data-driven approaches on their own. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Diffusion Coefficient Measures on Thin Film Uranium Oxide

Thin films of uranium oxides, putatively UO 2 and U 3 O 8 , were deposited on palladium/silver (75/25) foil discs (10 μm thick, 10 mm diameter). Methodology for sealing these foils, applying a hydrogen pressure (~ 1 atm) to the oxide side, and measuring the pressure on the permeate side (opposite side of foil) is reported. The experimental apparatus is held at 100 °C to speed diffusion, aided by the pressure differential across the foil (~1 atm (750 torr) on oxide side, initially low vacuum on permeate side, ~1x 10 -4 torr). Early results indicate an effective diffusion coefficient of roughly 7.66 x 10 -17 +/- 2.22 x 10 -17 cm 2 /sec for UO 2 . These values are in line with expectations and prior measures relative to large lag times for system baseline (substrate only). Evaluation of the technique for U 3 O 8 thin films suggests further development will be needed to extend the technique to more oxidized films (U 3 O 8 , UO 3 ). Characterization of the foils (thickness and speciation) post diffusion experiments will be carried out by SIGMA (Eric Tegtmeier and Andy Richards) in FY24 which will sharpen the uncertainty quantification for UO 2 diffusion coefficients, aiding the nucleation model for DRACO.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection of the Orbital Modulation of Fe Kα Fluorescence Emission in Centaurus X-3 Using the High-resolution Spectrometer Resolve on board XRISM

Abstract The Fe K α fluorescence line emission in X-ray spectra is a powerful diagnostic tool for various astrophysical objects to reveal the distribution of cold matter around photoionizing sources. The advent of the X-ray microcalorimeter on board the XRISM satellite will bring new constraints on the emission line. We present one of the first such results for the high-mass X-ray binary Centaurus X-3, which is composed of an O-type star and a neutron star (NS). We conducted a 155 ks observation covering an entire binary orbit. A weak Fe K α line was detected in all orbital phases at an equivalent width (EW) of 10–20 eV. We found for the first time that its radial velocity (RV) is sinusoidally modulated by the orbital phase. The RV amplitude is 248 ± 13 km s −1 , which is significantly smaller than the value (391 km s −1 ) expected if the emission is from the NS surface, but is consistent if the emission takes place at the O star surface. We discuss several possibilities of the line production site, including the NS surface, O star surface, O star wind, and accretion stream from the O star to the NS. We ran radiative transfer calculation for some of them assuming spherically symmetric density and velocity profiles and an isotropic distribution of X-ray emission from the NS. None of them explains the observed EW and velocity dispersion dependence on the orbital phase, suggesting that more elaborated modeling is needed. In other words, the present observational results have the capability to constrain deviations from these assumptions.

High energy astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

AGC-4 Experiment Irradiation Monitoring Data Qualification Final Report

The Graphite Technology Development Program ran a series of six experiments to quantify the effects of irradiation on nuclear grade graphite. This report focuses on the fourth experiment, Advanced Graphite Creep 4 (AGC 4). The Advanced Reactor Development (ARD) Technology Development Office (TDO) Program for research and development activities require documentation of qualified monitoring data to design and license the first high-temperature reactor nuclear plant. Qualified data meets the requirements for use as described in the experiment planning and quality assurance documents. Failed data do not meet the requirements and provide no useable information. Trend data may not meet all requirements but still provide some useable information. Use of Trend data requires assessment of how any deficiencies affect a particular use of the data. AGC-4 began with Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) Cycle 157D on May 30, 2015. After irradiating the graphite for two cycles, the capsule was removed from the reactor after ATR Cycle 158A, which ended on January 2, 2016, due to interference with another experiment. Irradiation was resumed with Cycle 162A on October 7, 2017 after the interfering experiment was removed from the reactor. AGC-4 irradiation completed by the end of Cycle 166B on January 10, 2020. Between Cycles 162A and 166B, AGC-4 capsule was removed from the reactor core during two Powered Axial Locator Mechanism (PALM) Cycles 163A and 165A to avoid overheating. All thermocouples (TCs) have functioned throughout the AGC-4 experiment. A total of 9,256,184 out of all 11,167,213 temperature records (or 82.9%) are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,911,029 missing values are Failed. Argon, helium, and total gas flow data were within expected ranges, except only eight out-of-range values occurred during outages. A total of 21,240,627 out of all 22,288,5103 gas flow rates (or 92.8%) are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,644,476 are Failed records mostly due to missing values. Discharge gas line moisture values were consistently low during full ATR power, except for 162B, when moisture content was increasing to more than 200 ppmv by the end of this cycle. During outages, moisture content reached as high as 700 ppmv. 1,089,941 out of a total of 1,107,331 moisture values (or 98.4%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 17,390 missing moisture values are Failed. Graphite creep specimens were subjected to one of three loads: 393, 491, or 589 lbf. For a brief period during Cycle 157D between 12:19 on June 2, 2015, and 08:23 on June 11, 2015, the load cells were wired incorrectly, resulting in missing stack load data. Missing stack loads were estimated from measured ram pressures using regression equations developed from the existing data from Cycle 157D. Estimated stack loads during this period are considered to be an accurate representation of actual load applied to the stacks. These loads deviate slightly from the planned loads. This deviation does not prevent the data from being Qualified for use but must be taken into account when analyzing the effect of load on creep. 6,095,728 out of a total of 6,403,985 moisture values (or 95.2%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 308,257 missing load values are Failed. Stack displacement increased consistently throughout the eight cycles, with total displacement reached highest value of 2.4 in by the end of irradiation. During ATR outages, a set of pneumatic rams raised the stacks of graphite creep specimens to ensure the specimens were not stuck within the test train. This stack raising was performed seven times throughout irradiation. All stacks were raised successfully each time. 4,744,974 out of a total of 6,094,513 displacement values (or 77.9%) are within the measurement range of the instrument and are Qualified for use by the ARD Program and 1,349,539 displacement values are Failed mostly due to missing values. Analyses were conducted on correlations between TCs to look for trends and step changes that might indicate instrument degradation or failure. Correlation analysis was used to identify instances when TCs form short circuits, referred to as virtual junctions, which result in TCs reporting temperatures from some location in the capsule other than the location where they were intended to read. No evidence of virtual junctions was found. Analyses were also conducted on control charts of temperature differences of between two TCs, which are expected to behave consistently throughout the entire irradiation period. Upward or downward trend over time indicates at least one TC in the pair was drifted. Examining control charts for all 66 possible pairs out of twelve TCs installed in the AGC-4 capsules reveal no clear drift failures occurred, except unstable behavior of two TCs in Zone 3, TC-7 and TC-8, over irradiation time. In conclus

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting Néel 60 years on: The magnetic anisotropy of L1 0 FeNi (tetrataenite)

The magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy of atomically ordered L1 0 FeNi (the meteoritic mineral tetrataenite) is studied within a first-principles electronic structure framework. Two compositions are examined: equiatomic Fe 0.5 Ni 0.5 and an Fe-rich composition, Fe 0.56 Ni 0.44 . It is confirmed that, for the single crystals modeled in this work, the leading-order anisotropy coefficient K 1 dominates the higher-order coefficients K 2 and K 3 . To enable comparison with experiment, the effects of both imperfect atomic long-range order and finite temperature are included. While our computational results initially appear to undershoot the measured experimental values for this system, careful scrutiny of the original analysis due to Néel et al. [J. Appl. Phys. 35, 873 (1964)] suggests that our computed value of K 1 is, in fact, consistent with experimental values, and that the noted discrepancy has its origins in the nanoscale polycrystalline, multivariant nature of experimental samples, that yields much larger values of K 2 and K 3 than expected a priori. These results provide fresh insight into the existing discrepancies in the literature regarding the value of tetrataenite’s uniaxial magnetocrystalline anisotropy in both natural and synthetic samples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for the HH → $ b\overline{b}b\overline{b} $ process via vector-boson fusion production using proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson pair production via vector-boson fusion (VBF) in the $ b\overline{b}b\overline{b} $ final state is carried out with the ATLAS experiment using 126 fb –1 of proton- proton collision data delivered at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 by the Large Hadron Collider. This search is sensitive to VBF production of additional heavy bosons that may decay into Higgs boson pairs, and in a non-resonant topology it can constrain the quartic coupling between the Higgs bosons and vector bosons. No significant excess relative to the Standard Model expectation is observed, and limits on the production cross-section are set at the 95% confidence level for a heavy scalar resonance in the context of an extended Higgs sector, and for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production. Interpretation in terms of the coupling between a Higgs boson pair and two vector bosons is also provided: coupling values normalised to the Standard Model expectation of κ 2V < –0.76 and κ 2V > 2.90 are excluded at the 95% confidence level in data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An electric-circuit model on the inter-tape contact resistance and current sharing for REBCO cable and magnet applications

REBCO coated conductor has demonstrated high current capacity that can enable high-field magnets for high energy physics and fusion applications. However, quench protection is still one of the main challenges to be addressed for these applications. In addition, Ic and n value variations along the length of REBCO tapes exist in commercial production. The inter-tape contact resistance plays a key role to develop the self protection capability in cables and magnets by enabling current sharing and suppressing excessive eddy currents. Here we propose an electric-circuit model to describe the inter-tape contact resistance and its impact on the current sharing between REBCO tapes. We report the experiments on a 2-stacked tape REBCO cable with local Ic drop to validate the model. With the developed model, we study the upper limit of the contact resistance which allows current sharing between tapes. We also study the impact of variation in Ic and n values in tapes on the cable performance. Finally, our model is expected to provide useful insight into the current sharing and target values for inter-tape contact resistance in REBCO cables and magnets for various applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing aircraft flows at airports using data driven predicted capabilities

A method for safe and efficient use of airport runway capacity includes receiving, at an air traffic control system at an airport, airport data related to movement areas of the airport, time data related to a time period, aircraft data related to a plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period, and environmental data related to environmental conditions predicted for the airport during the time period. The method further includes computing a probability distribution for inter-aircraft spacing by applying the airport data, the time data, the aircraft data, and the environmental data to a trained Bayesian network, producing the probability distribution for the inter-aircraft spacing as an output observation of the trained Bayesian network, and, using the probability distribution and a confidence value, identifying an inter-aircraft spacing value for the plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period.

Sweet, Douglas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stakeholder-Engaged Structured Decision Making for the Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Mission - 20501

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) environmental legacy cleanup program requires decisions to be made for environmental remediation, decommissioning and disposal or management of radioactive waste. This legacy cleanup program was established to address groundwater contamination, material disposal areas (MDAs) that have been used to dispose of radioactive and other waste material, and 'aggregate areas' that might produce radioactive or other chemical waste as a result of remediation activities. The LANL site is regulated for environmental concerns under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). However, some parts of LANL, such as material disposal area G (MDA G), have disposed of radioactive waste under DOE Order 435.1, and are subject to other regulations. For example, decommissioning the remote-handled TRU material stored in 33 shafts at MDA G falls under EPA's 40 CFR 191. Collectively, the regulations are all aimed in the same direction of finding the best solution, either through constructs such as 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA), considering balancing factors as opposed to only cost and human health risk, and, under EPA regulations such as RCRA and NEPA, evaluating impact from all chemicals and both human health and ecological endpoints. Despite the basic goals and objectives of the regulations or their guidance, the main challenge is in their implementation. Arguably perhaps, but really in principle, all of these (and similar) regulations are asking for a decision analysis to be performed. Implementation challenges encountered have included lack of understanding of decision analysis in the industry, lack of effective stakeholder engagement in the decision analysis process, and lack of appreciation of the need to separate value judgments from science, the latter leading to developing conservative, or protective, science-based models. Conservative models lead to poor solutions, lack of effective stakeholder engagement leads to long drawn out protracted approaches to finding a solution (which also might never be found with this approach), and lack of understanding of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics causes poor models to be built, which creates unfortunate situations of 'garbage in, garbage out' becoming the basis for decision making. Stakeholder-engaged structured decision making (SDM) is an approach to solving problems that relies on the theory of decision science to involve stakeholders in the decision-making process. This approach incorporates stakeholder values using a scientifically rigorous methodology that separates value judgments from science in a way that helps avoid the pitfalls of biased, protective, or conservative modeling. This approach has its foundation in Keeney's 1992 treatise on value-focused thinking [1]. Keeney advocated a paradigm shift in decision making based on the idea that the standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards. The standard approach of focusing first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values results in a reactive approach with the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of the core values that have meaning to stakeholders. This paradigm shift effectively engages all stakeholders in the decision-making process while using a values focused thinking approach that can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and generate solutions that are related directly to values and objectives as identified by stakeholders. There are, perhaps, two overarching reasons why SDM can be used to benefit LANL's environmental legacy cleanup. Some of LANL's remaining waste management and environmental management problems are challenging and complex (for example, the Cr and RDX plumes, and MDAs) and while the traditional approach has, arguably, worked well for relatively simple risk-based problems, it cannot, or should not, be applied to more complex problems if the most effective and efficient solutions are desired. The second reason is cost. This has perhaps become more critical since publication of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that DoE's environmental liability is considered a high-risk concern for the nation [2]. The focus of SDM is on structuring solutions to decision risk problems by first addressing stakeholder and decision maker values and subsequently developing decision objectives and ways to measure those objectives, preference weighting across objectives, identifying decision alternatives that best achieve those values, and characterizing uncertainty in predictions of the measures. Because a complete decision model is created using SDM, it can be evaluated to find the main elements of the model that drive, or predict, the best solution. This approach creates complete decision models that are transparent, traceable, reproducible and technically defensible. The science behind SDM, or decision analysis, is well founded, yet it is not unusual to see ad hoc approaches to decision making implemented under various environmental regulations that are pertinent to the LANL site, including NEPA, RCRA and DOE Order 435.1. Such ad hoc approaches are often not transparent or traceable, and lack reproducibility and technical defensibility. The LANL legacy cleanup program has embarked on using SDM to address the complex problems that remain. Stakeholder meetings have been held, and a prototype version of the stakeholder value system has been developed. Further meetings are expected in the future to address specific project needs. This is a long-term endeavor considering the complex environmental problems faced by DOE EM in Los Alamos (EM-LA), and careful planning, consideration of stakeholder value systems, and engagement with stakeholders throughout the SDM process is expected to lead to a successful endpoint. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗