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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗
NASA NTRS1985

Some evidence for high energy gamma-ray sources at large galactic latitudes

The arrival directions of the gamma-quanta with energies of about 10 to 15th power eV which were registrated by Tien Shan experiment were compared with COS-B observations. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulations it was shown with low probability that arrival directions of Tien Shan gamma-quanta initiated showers are not uniformly distributed. It is shown that in the region not seen by COS-B mission, the high energy gamma-ray sources should be located at position of 90 deg. 1 sup 11 130 deg and b sup 11 or = 50 deg. The integral intensity of these sources should be I ( 10 to the 15th power eV) = 4.8 + or - 1.7).10 to the 13th power/sq cm/s/str. There is no coincidence between the gamma-quanta registrated by Tien Shan experiment with Geminga intense COS-B gamma source. So it is shown that the integral photon spectrum of Geminga (I(e) approx E sup-Beta, where Beta = 0.8 for E 1 GeV) becomes steeper (Beta 1.2) in high energy region with probability 99.9.%.

Karakula, S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo simulation of particle acceleration at astrophysical shocks

A Monte Carlo code was developed for the simulation of particle acceleration at astrophysical shocks. The code is implemented in Turbo Pascal on a PC. It is modularized and structured in such a way that modification and maintenance are relatively painless. Monte Carlo simulations of particle acceleration at shocks follow the trajectories of individual particles as they scatter repeatedly across the shock front, gaining energy with each crossing. The particles are assumed to scatter from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence on both sides of the shock. A scattering law is used which is related to the assumed form of the turbulence, and the particle and shock parameters. High energy cosmic ray spectra derived from Monte Carlo simulations have observed power law behavior just as the spectra derived from analytic calculations based on a diffusion equation. This high energy behavior is not sensitive to the scattering law used. In contrast with Monte Carlo calculations diffusive calculations rely on the initial injection of supra-thermal particles into the shock environment. Monte Carlo simulations are the only known way to describe the extraction of particles directly from the thermal pool. This was the triumph of the Monte Carlo approach. The question of acceleration efficiency is an important one in the shock acceleration game. The efficiency of shock waves efficient to account for the observed flux of high energy galactic cosmic rays was examined. The efficiency of the acceleration process depends on the thermal particle pick-up and hence the low energy scattering in detail. One of the goals is the self-consistent derivation of the accelerated particle spectra and the MHD turbulence spectra. Presumably the upstream turbulence, which scatters the particles so they can be accelerated, is excited by the streaming accelerated particles and the needed downstream turbulence is convected from the upstream region. The present code is to be modified to include a better description of particle scattering (pitch-angle instead of hard-sphere) and as iterative procedure for treating the self-excitation of the MHD turbulence.

Campbell, Roy K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic simulation of the human factor in structural reliability

Many structural failures have occasionally been attributed to human factors in engineering design, analyses maintenance, and fabrication processes. Every facet of the engineering process is heavily governed by human factors and the degree of uncertainty associated with them. Factors such as societal, physical, professional, psychological, and many others introduce uncertainties that significantly influence the reliability of human performance. Quantifying human factors and associated uncertainties in structural reliability require: (1) identification of the fundamental factors that influence human performance, and (2) models to describe the interaction of these factors. An approach is being developed to quantify the uncertainties associated with the human performance. This approach consists of a multi factor model in conjunction with direct Monte-Carlo simulation.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Correlated noise in the COBE DMR sky maps

The Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite Differential Radiometer (COBE DMR) sky maps contain low-level correlated noise. We obtain estimates of the amplitude and pattern of the correlated noise from three techniques: angular averages of the covariance matrix, Monte Carlo simulations of two-point correlation functions and direct analysis of the DMR maps. The results from the three methods are mutually consistent. The noise covariance matrix of a DMR sky maps is diagonal to an accuracy of better than 1%. For a given sky pixel, the dominant noise covariance occure with the ring of pixels at an angular separation of 60 deg due to the 60 deg separation of the DMR horns. The mean covariance at 60 deg is 0.45%((sup +0.18)(sub -0.14)) of the mean variance. Additionally, the variance in a given pixel is 0.7% greater than would be expected from a single beam experiment with the same noise properties. Autocorrelation functions suffer from a approximately 1.5 sigma positive bias at 60 deg while cross-correlations have no bias. Published COBE DMR results are not significantly affected by correlated noise.

Lineweaver, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Orbit Determination Sensitivity Analysis for the Europa Multiple Flyby Mission Concept

This paper details the results of parametric variations on the notional Europa Mission Concept tour navigation strategy on orbit determination delivery and knowledge errors and the associated statistical ∆V consumption. Approach maneuver placement at encounter minus two and a half days and at encounter minus three and a half days is compared to the reference encounter minus three days location as well as variations to the data cutoff for approach maneuver design, which is baselined one day prior to maneuver execution. An execution error model with fixed and proportional components assigned to the magnitude and pointing directions is applied to each maneuver in a Monte Carlo simulation. Variations on the fixed and proportional contributions to both component errors are simulated and analyzed to show the effect of varying thruster characterization levels. The effects of varying levels of a priori satellite ephemeris errors are also characterized in this study.

Boone, Dylan R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An in-depth probabilistic study of external tank attach ring

This report deals with conducting a probabilistic study of the external tank attach ring (ETA) used as an interface between the external tank attach struts and the solid rocket booster. The ideas were to use probabilistic distributions for material, geometric, and load properties; to calculate probabilistic margins of safety; and then to compare results against the deterministic factors of safety that were used in the actual design process. The report describes how this was done and discusses some of the road blocks and data problems that were encountered during the study and provides some conclusions. A further refinement of this study is being considered for future work which would make more direct use of finite element analysis data coupled with Monte Carlo simulation. The basic conclusion herein indicates that the probabilistic margins of safety for the cases analyzed (by use of existing data) appear to support deterministic results and actually indicate higher reliabilities.

Pizzano, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2000

Model for radial dependence of frequency distributions for energy imparted in nanometer volumes from HZE particles

This paper develops a deterministic model of frequency distributions for energy imparted (total energy deposition) in small volumes similar to DNA molecules from high-energy ions of interest for space radiation protection and cancer therapy. Frequency distributions for energy imparted are useful for considering radiation quality and for modeling biological damage produced by ionizing radiation. For high-energy ions, secondary electron (delta-ray) tracks originating from a primary ion track make dominant contributions to energy deposition events in small volumes. Our method uses the distribution of electrons produced about an ion's path and incorporates results from Monte Carlo simulation of electron tracks to predict frequency distributions for ions, including their dependence on radial distance. The contribution from primary ion events is treated using an impact parameter formalism of spatially restricted linear energy transfer (LET) and energy-transfer straggling. We validate our model by comparing it directly to results from Monte Carlo simulations for proton and alpha-particle tracks. We show for the first time frequency distributions of energy imparted in DNA structures by several high-energy ions such as cosmic-ray iron ions. Our comparison with results from Monte Carlo simulations at low energies indicates the accuracy of the method.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2012

Computing Radiative Transfer in a 3D Medium

A package of software computes the time-dependent propagation of a narrow laser beam in an arbitrary three- dimensional (3D) medium with absorption and scattering, using the transient-discrete-ordinates method and a direct integration method. Unlike prior software that utilizes a Monte Carlo method, this software enables simulation at very small signal-to-noise ratios. The ability to simulate propagation of a narrow laser beam in a 3D medium is an improvement over other discrete-ordinate software. Unlike other direct-integration software, this software is not limited to simulation of propagation of thermal radiation with broad angular spread in three dimensions or of a laser pulse with narrow angular spread in two dimensions. Uses for this software include (1) computing scattering of a pulsed laser beam on a material having given elastic scattering and absorption profiles, and (2) evaluating concepts for laser-based instruments for sensing oceanic turbulence and related measurements of oceanic mixed-layer depths. With suitable augmentation, this software could be used to compute radiative transfer in ultrasound imaging in biological tissues, radiative transfer in the upper Earth crust for oil exploration, and propagation of laser pulses in telecommunication applications.

Von Allmen, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2010

Calculation of Dose Deposition in 3D Voxels by Heavy Ions

The biological response to high-LET radiation is very different from low-LET radiation, and can be partly attributed to the energy deposition by the radiation. Several experiments, notably detection of gamma-H2AX foci by immunofluorescence, has revealed important differences in the nature and in the spatial distribution of double-strand breaks (DSB) induced by low- and high-LET radiations. Many calculations, most of which are based on amorphous track models with radial dose, have been combined with chromosome models to calculate the number and distribution of DSB within nuclei and chromosome aberrations. In this work, the Monte-Carlo track structure simulation code RITRACKS have been used to calculate directly the energy deposition in voxels (3D pixels). A cubic volume of 5 micrometers of side was irradiated by 1) 450 (1)H+ ions of 300 MeV (LET is approximately 0.3 keV/micrometer) and 2) by 1 (56)Fe26+ ion of 1 GeV/amu (LET is approximately 150 keV/micrometer). In both cases, the dose deposited in the volume is approximately 1 Gy. All energy deposition events are recorded and dose is calculated in voxels of 20 micrometers of side. The voxels are then visualized in 3D by using a color scale to represent the intensity of the dose in a voxel. This simple approach has revealed several important points which may help understand experimental observations. In both simulations, voxels which receive low dose are the most numerous, and those corresponding to electron track ends received a dose which is in the higher range. The dose voxels are distributed randomly and scattered uniformly within the volume irradiated by low-LET radiation. The distribution of the voxels shows major differences for the (56)Fe26+ ion. The track structure can still be seen, and voxels with much higher dose are found in the region corresponding to the track "core". These high-dose voxels are not found in the low-LET irradiation simulation and may be responsible for DSB that are more difficult to repair. By applying a threshold on the dose visualization, voxels corresponding to electron track ends are evidenced and the spatial distribution of voxels is very similar to the distribution of DSB observed in gamma H2AX experiments, even if no chromosomes have been included in the simulation. Furthermore, this work has shown that a significant dose is deposited in voxels corresponding to electron track ends. Since some delta-rays from iron ion can travel several millimeters, they may also be of radiobiological importance.

Plante, Ianik↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mutual shadowing and directional reflectance of a rough surface - A geometric-optical model

A Monte Carlo simulation of mutual shadowing effects is presented. Results of these simulations and the corresponding modeling efforts are also presented. Simulation results show that the assumption that all illumination shadows will preferentially occupy the lower surface of crowns is not realistic enough and may cause a considerable discrepancy between modeled results and simulation. Therefore, the model was modified by making the probability that a point on the surface of the crown is illuminated to be a function of height from the base of the crown, while still accounting for the fact that at the hotspot the probability that all illuminated points are viewed is one. With this change, modeled results show better agreement with the simulations.

Li, Xiaowen↗
NASA NTRS2019

Investigation of Direct Force Control for Planetary Aerocapture at Neptune

In this work, a direct force control numerical predictor-corrector guidance architecture is developed to enable Neptune aerocapture using flight-heritage blunt body aeroshells. A linear aerodynamics model is formulated for a Mars Science Laboratory-derived aeroshell. The application of calculus of variations shows that the optimal angle of attack and side-slip angle control laws are bang-bang. A closed-loop numerical predictor-corrector direct force control guidance algorithm is developed and numerically simulated using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II. The Monte Carlo simulated trajectories are demonstrated to be robust to the modeled dispersions in aerodynamics, atmospheric density, and entry state. An aerocapture technology trade study demonstrates that blunt body direct force control aerocapture enables similar performance as slender body bank angle control but halves the peak g-loading.

Deshmukh, Rohan G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Investigation of Direct Force Control For Aerocapture at Neptune

In this work, a direct force control numerical predictor-corrector guidance architecture is developed to enable Neptune aerocapture using blunt body aeroshells. A linear aerodynamics model is formulated for a Mars Science Laboratory-derived aeroshell. The application of optimal control theory shows that the∆V-minimizing angle of attack and side-slip angle control laws are bang-bang. A closed-loop numerical predictor-corrector direct force control guidance algorithm is developed and numerically simulated using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II. A series of Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the guidance robustness to uncertainties in vehicle aerodynamics,atmospheric density, and entry state. For the reference set of uncertainties, the direct force control vehicle achieves 99.7% successful science orbit insertion within a 330 m/s total∆V budget for periapsis raise, apoapsis, inclination,and ascending node corrections. Improved atmospheric knowledge and delivery state accuracy are shown to improve the success to 100% and reduce the∆V to 230 m/s. Direct force control is demonstrated to be an enabling technology for blunt body aerocapture at Neptune while providing comparable performance to existing slender body vehicles studied in literature

aerocapture↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Investigation of Parallel Programming Techniques Applied to Monte Carlo Simulations for Post-Flight Reconstruction of Spacecraft Trajectory

Parallelizing software to execute on multi-core central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) can be challenging. For some fields outside of Computer Science, this transition comes with new issues. For example, memory limitations can require modifications to code not initially developed to run on GPUs. This work applies the Open Multi-Processing (OpenMP) and Open Accelerators (OpenACC) directive-based parallelization strategies on a Monte Carlo simulation approach for trajectory reconstruction enabling it to run on multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Large matrix operations are the most common use of GPUs, which are not present in this algorithm; however, the natural parallelism of independent trajectories in Monte Carlo simulations is exploited. Benchmarking data are presented comparing execution times of the software for single-thread CPUs, multi-thread CPUs with OpenMP, and multi-thread GPUs using OpenACC. These data were collected using nodes with Intel® Xeon® E5-2670 (Sandy Bridge) CPUs enhanced with NVIDIA® Tesla® K40 GPUs on the Pleiades Supercomputer cluster at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center (ARC) and a local Intel® Xeon Phi™ node at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC).

Williams, R. Anthony↗
NASA NTRS2003

Monte Carlo Simulations of the Response of the MARIE Instrument

The MARIE instrument aboard Mars Odyssey functions as a telescope for the detection of charged, energetic, nuclei. The directionality that leads to the telescope description is achieved by requiring coincident signals in two designated detectors in MARIE s silicon detector stack for the instrument to trigger. Because of this, MARIE is actually a bi directional telescope. Triggering particles can enter the detector stack by passing through the lightly shielded front of the instrument, but can also enter the back of the instrument by passing through the bulk of Odyssey. Because of this, understanding how to relate the signals recorded by MARIE to astrophysically important quantities such as particle fluxes or spectra exterior to the spacecraft clearly requires detailed modeling of the physical interactions that occur as the particles pass through the spacecraft and the instrument itself. In order to facilitate in the calibration of the MARIE data, we have begun a program to simulate the response of MARIE using the FLUKA [1] [2] Monte Carlo radiation transport code.

Andersen, V.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A microstructural lattice model for strain oriented problems: A combined Monte Carlo finite element technique

A specialized, microstructural lattice model, termed MCFET for combined Monte Carlo Finite Element Technique, was developed which simulates microstructural evolution in material systems where modulated phases occur and the directionality of the modulation is influenced by internal and external stresses. In this approach, the microstructure is discretized onto a fine lattice. Each element in the lattice is labelled in accordance with its microstructural identity. Diffusion of material at elevated temperatures is simulated by allowing exchanges of neighboring elements if the exchange lowers the total energy of the system. A Monte Carlo approach is used to select the exchange site while the change in energy associated with stress fields is computed using a finite element technique. The MCFET analysis was validated by comparing this approach with a closed form, analytical method for stress assisted, shape changes of a single particle in an infinite matrix. Sample MCFET analytical for multiparticle problems were also run and in general the resulting microstructural changes associated with the application of an external stress are similar to that observed in Ni-Al-Cr alloys at elevated temperature.

Gayda, J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Radiation Track Structure and Calculation of Dose Deposition in Nanovolumes

INTRODUCTION: The radiation track structure is of crucial importance to understand radiation damage to molecules and subsequent biological effects. Of a particular importance in radiobiology is the induction of double-strand breaks (DSBs) by ionizing radiation, which are caused by clusters of lesions in DNA, and oxidative damage to cellular constituents leading to aberrant signaling cascades. DSB can be visualized within cell nuclei with gamma-H2AX experiments. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In DSB induction models, the DSB probability is usually calculated by the local dose obtained from a radial dose profile of HZE tracks. In this work, the local dose imparted by HZE ions is calculated directly from the 3D Monte-Carlo simulation code RITRACKS. A cubic volume of 5 micron edge (Figure 1) is irradiated by a (Fe26+)-56 ion of 1 GeV/amu (LET approx.150 keV/micron) and by a fluence of 450 H+ ions, 300 MeV/amu (LET approx. 0.3 keV/micron). In both cases, the dose deposited in the volume is approx.1 Gy. The dose is then calculated into each 3D pixels (voxels) of 20 nm edge and visualized in 3D. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The dose is deposited uniformly in the volume by the H+ ions. The voxels which receive a high dose (orange) corresponds to electron track ends. The dose is deposited differently by the 56Fe26+ ion. Very high dose (red) is deposited in voxels with direct ion traversal. Voxels with electron track ends (orange) are also found distributed around the path of the track. In both cases, the appearance of the dose distribution looks very similar to DSBs seen in gammaH2AX experiments, particularly when the visualization threshold is applied. CONCLUSION: The refinement of the dose calculation to the nanometer scale has revealed important differences in the energy deposition between high- and low-LET ions. Voxels of very high dose are only found in the path of high-LET ions. Interestingly, experiments have shown that DSB induced by high-LET radiation are more difficult to repair. Therefore, this new approach may be useful to understand the nature of DSB and oxidative damage induced by ionizing radiation.

Plante, I.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Monte Carlo modeling of atomic oxygen attack of polymers with protective coatings on LDEF

Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) will assist in understanding the mechanisms involved, and will lead to improved reliability in predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing. A computational simulation of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen and results of both ground laboratory and LDEF data, a predictive Monte Carlo model was developed which simulates the oxidation processes that occur on polymers with applied protective coatings that have defects. The use of high atomic oxygen fluence-directed ram LDEF results has enabled mechanistic implications to be made by adjusting Monte Carlo modeling assumptions to match observed results based on scanning electron microscopy. Modeling assumptions, implications, and predictions are presented, along with comparison of observed ground laboratory and LDEF results.

Banks, Bruce A.↗