Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Decision theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced-Order Models of Static Power Grids based on Spectral Clustering

For large-scale interconnected power systems that cover large geographical areas, certain electrical studies are required so that appropriate decisions ensure system reliability and low cost. For such studies, it is often neither practical nor necessary to model in detail the entire power system, which is increasingly complex due to a more diverse range of grid assets to choose from in both short and long-term planning. The goal of this paper is to present a methodology to reduce the order of large-scale power networks based on spectral graph theory given that current methods for static network reduction are not scalable. A brief analysis of some spectral clustering properties to determine which graph Laplacian matrix should be used and why is included. The analysis shows that the utilization of the normalized graph Laplacian is more advantageous for clustering purposes. Techniques are proposed to approximate cost functions for the aggregated generators. This is done via linear regression. The reduced-order model obtained with the proposed methodology has an accuracy above 94% and solves the scalability issue commonly present in other reduction methods. If the utilization of the reduced-order model is either constrained to load levels above mid-peak demand, or cost functions of aggregated units are approximated via a piecewise quadratic approach, then the error distribution is in the order of 10^-3. .

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Intelligent control based on fuzzy logic and neural net theory

In the conception and design of intelligent systems, one promising direction involves the use of fuzzy logic and neural network theory to enhance such systems' capability to learn from experience and adapt to changes in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. Here, an intelligent control scheme is explored by integrating these multidisciplinary techniques. A self-learning system is proposed as an intelligent controller for dynamical processes, employing a control policy which evolves and improves automatically. One key component of the intelligent system is a fuzzy logic-based system which emulates human decision making behavior. It is shown that the system can solve a fairly difficult control learning problem. Simulation results demonstrate that improved learning performance can be achieved in relation to previously described systems employing bang-bang control. The proposed system is relatively insensitive to variations in the parameters of the system environment.

Lee, Chuen-Chien↗
NASA NTRS2014

Upset Recovery Human Factors

Accident and incident analyses as well as industry group concerns and recommendations have justified taking a second look at proficiency standards related to upset recovery training and performance. Quite a number of factors and theories have been suggested-- leading the NASA Aviation Safety Program to reconsider manual handling skills in highly automated aircraft particularly in conditions that can potentially lead to Loss of Control events. Our team of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) first identified 76 Basic Recovery Skills that were important for effective crew response under five different anomaly conditions. In addition to manual handling skills, the skill set included knowledge and cognitive skills, as well as decision making and management skills. Advanced Recovery Skills were identified by combining skills, integrating with crew resource management skills, and developing heuristics for decision making.Using the Advanced Recovery Skill set, the SMEs then developed a generic process flow starting from the problem discovery phase (e.g., identifying an anomaly) through the decision making and management phase (e.g., assessing response options), through the recovery phase (e.g., controlling the aircraft). The generic process flow was refined by testing it against six additional scenarios. The next part of the project was to develop an approach for assessing and revising a generic training curriculum (we used an operators Advanced Qualification Program (AQP) as a framework). Although many of the Basic and Advanced Recovery Skills could be found in the Job Task Listing, they were not always structured or combined in the most effective way. Recommendations were developed for assessing relevant aspects of the Job Task Listing and Continuing Qualification curriculum so that the more comprehensive set of Upset Recovery skillsincluding Human Factors--could be trained and assessed in the most appropriate and effective context. The existing AQP methodology provides a natural way to insert targeted Upset Recovery skills into its system of proficiency objectives, training devices, training activities, and ultimately, into the event sets of a simulator training scenario.

AQP training↗
DOE OSTI2020

K-Spin Hamiltonian for Quantum-Resolvable Markov Decision Processes

The Markov decision process is the mathematical formalization underlying the modern field of reinforcement learning when transition and reward functions are unknown. We derive a pseudo-Boolean cost function that is equivalent to a K-spin Hamiltonian representation of the discrete, finite, discounted Markov decision process with infinite horizon. This K-spin Hamiltonian furnishes a starting point from which to solve for an optimal policy using heuristic quantum algorithms such as adiabatic quantum annealing and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm on near-term quantum hardware. In arguing that the variational minimization of our Hamiltonian is approximately equivalent to the Bellman optimality condition for a prevalent class of environments we establish an interesting analogy with classical field theory. Along with proof-of-concept calculations to corroborate our formulation by simulated and quantum annealing against classical Q-Learning, we analyze the scaling of physical resources required to solve our Hamiltonian on quantum hardware.

Hamiltonian↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY 2021 Isolated Grids and Grid-Connected Turbine Reference Systems; Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

For individuals, businesses, and communities focused on building resilient electrical grid infrastructure, wind energy can provide an affordable, accessible, and compatible distributed energy resource option that also enhances the capabilities of local grid operations. The Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL) project is a multi-year distributed wind research effort, driven through a partnership between four Department of Energy National Laboratories and industry to develop and improve the planning, design, and operation of wind-centered microgrids to complement solar, energy storage, and other distributed energy resources for grid-tied and isolated operation (U.S. Department of Energy, 2021). This report documents the application of methods developed through the initial three years of the MIRACL project to two real-world distributed wind reference systems. Specifically, the methods demonstrated in this report include 1) a market valuation framework to comprehensively value the services distributed wind can provide and 2) a resilience framework that enables stakeholders to characterize distribution system resilience and compare grid investment decisions from a resilience perspective. Additional methods mentioned in this report include distributed hybrid system design methods for grid resilience, advanced control co-simulation platforms, and power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) models. Preliminary results from these additional methods are presented in this report and will be demonstrated and/or applied to the reference systems in the coming year. The purpose of applying these methods to reference systems is to drive technology transfer of the theories, methodologies, and technologies developed under the MIRACL project and increase the number of referenceable case studies available to stakeholders interested in additional value-added capabilities of wind systems beyond bulk energy supply (i.e. kilowatt-hours).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Intelligent manipulation technique for multi-branch robotic systems

New analytical development in kinematics planning is reported. The INtelligent KInematics Planner (INKIP) consists of the kinematics spline theory and the adaptive logic annealing process. Also, a novel framework of robot learning mechanism is introduced. The FUzzy LOgic Self Organized Neural Networks (FULOSONN) integrates fuzzy logic in commands, control, searching, and reasoning, the embedded expert system for nominal robotics knowledge implementation, and the self organized neural networks for the dynamic knowledge evolutionary process. Progress on the mechanical construction of SRA Advanced Robotic System (SRAARS) and the real time robot vision system is also reported. A decision was made to incorporate the Local Area Network (LAN) technology in the overall communication system.

Chen, Alexander Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

2018 NISAR Applications Workshop: Forest and Disturbance; Workshop Report

Forest lands cover the globe and are important sources for providing ecosystem services including: carbon sequestration, biodiversity, timber, air and water quality. As such, counties around the world have dedicated programs for managing them. Accurate and timely information concerning the status of these forests (moisture, biomass, disturbance type, etc.) is essential to those Nations’ human and ecological health as well as economy. The joint NASA/US Forest Service workshop focused on arming forest land managers with observations and remote sensing information from the upcoming NASA-ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) (NISAR) satellite mission (expected to launch early 2022). Participants included representatives from different US Federal Agencies, private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGO) that are key players in facilitating integration of Earth Observations (EO) into forest management and decision support workflows. They included scientists, technicians, and program managers with a responsibility for data acquisition and exploitation such as product development, delivery, and use, and capacity building. Discussions were held over two days to convey the broader forest and disturbance community information needs for various representative participants and programs and to facilitate the delivery of NISAR mission geospatial products and observational capabilities. Case studies were presented to demonstrate the current state of practice in the use of SAR remote sensing for applications of direct importance to forest and disturbance land management community. Eleven organizations presented their information requirements in response to a set of questions provided by the NASA team, then the NASA team responded by describing the degree to which NISAR could meet these requirements. Discussion ensued about needed data product specifications to increase utility (e.g., projection, latency, etc.), tools and capacity building. The general findings of this workshop were that (a) NISAR observations will be particularly useful to the global forest carbon and disturbance monitoring applications, but that certain data product design decisions (projections and radiometric and terrain corrections) need to be considered to increase utility; b) the biomass and disturbance detection algorithms meet many of the community needs, however there are other information products of value (e.g., soil moisture or disturbance classification, not just detection) and all products should be compliant with existing community standards for reporting uncertainty; c) providing SAR education to the community will be key specifically thinking about putting the information first and the SAR theory second, providing a simple guide of standard data processing steps (e.g., dB (decibel) to power conversion and speckle filtering); d) the community needs a user-friendly interface for finding free, archived data over their geographic regions of interest; e) user-friendly tools that connect to open-sources GIS (Global Information System) software (e.g., QGIS (Quantum GIS)) that include a graphical user interface (GUI) for SAR processing that enables both download and cloud processing. To integrate these findings and prepare the community before NISAR launches, it was suggested that there be a dedicated NISAR Forest and Disturbance Applications Working Group (as per the specifications in the NISAR Utilization Plan). After launch, it was decided that the community continue capacity building activities.

Stavros, Natasha↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inhibition of Alkali Metal Reduction of 1-Adamantanol by London Dispersion Effects

Here, a series of alkali metal 1-adamantoxide (OAd 1 ) complexes of formula [M(OAd 1 )(HOAd 1 ) 2 ], where M=Li, Na or K, were synthesised by reduction of 1-adamantanol with excess of the alkali metal. The syntheses indicated that only one out of every three HOAd 1 molecules was reduced. An X-ray diffraction study of the sodium derivative shows that the complex features two unreduced HOAd 1 donors as well as the reduced alkoxide (OAd 1 ), with the Ad 1 fragments clustered together on the same side of the NaO 3 plane, contrary to steric considerations. This is the first example of an alkali metal reduction of an alcohol that is inhibited from completion due to the formation of the [M(OAd 1 )(HOAd 1 ) 2 ] complexes, stabilized by London dispersion effects. NMR spectroscopic studies revealed similar structures for the lithium and potassium derivatives. Computational analyses indicate that decisive London dispersion effects in the molecular structure are a consequence of the many C–H•••H–C interactions between the OAd 1 groups.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal D-FACTS Placement in Moving Target Defense Against False Data Injection Attacks

Moving target defense (MTD) is a defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against the power system state estimation using distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices. However, existing studies neglect to address a fundamental yet critical issue, i.e., the D-FACTS placement, by assuming that all lines are equipped with D-FACTS devices. Here, to tackle this problem, we first derive analytical necessary conditions and requirements on the D-FACTS placement for a complete MTD. Further, we propose sufficient conditions using a graph theory-based topology analysis to ensure that the MTD under the proposed D-FACTS placement has the maximum rank of its composite matrix, which is indicative of the MTD effectiveness. Based on the analytical conditions, we design D-FACTS placement algorithms by using the minimum number of D-FACTS devices to achieve the maximum MTD effectiveness. A novel MTD-based ACOPF model, in which the reactance of D-FACTS lines is introduced as decision variables, is proposed to find a trade-off between the system loss and the MTD effectiveness. Numerical results on 6-bus, IEEE 14-bus, and IEEE 118-bus systems show the efficacy of MTDs using the proposed D-FACTS placement algorithms in maximizing the composite matrix rank and detecting FDI attacks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Metabolic Reaction Networks with Perturbation-Theory Machine Learning (PTML) Models

Background: Checking the connectivity (structure) of complex Metabolic Reaction Networks(MRNs) models proposed for new microorganisms with promising properties is an importantgoal for chemical biology. Objective: In principle, we can perform a hand-on checking (Manual Curation). However, this is achallenging task due to the high number of combinations of pairs of nodes (possible metabolic reactions). Results: The CPTML linear model obtained using the LDA algorithm is able to discriminate nodes(metabolites) with the correct assignation of reactions from incorrect nodes with values of accuracy,specificity, and sensitivity in the range of 85-100% in both training and external validation dataseries. Methods: In this work, we used Combinatorial Perturbation Theory and Machine Learning techniquesto seek a CPTML model for MRNs >40 organisms compiled by Barabasis’ group. First, wequantified the local structure of a very large set of nodes in each MRN using a new class of node indexcalled Markov linear indices fk. Next, we calculated CPT operators for 150000 combinationsof query and reference nodes of MRNs. Last, we used these CPT operators as inputs of differentML algorithms. Conclusion: Meanwhile, PTML models based on Bayesian network, J48-Decision Tree and RandomForest algorithms were identified as the three best non-linear models with accuracy greaterthan 97.5%. The present work opens the door to the study of MRNs of multiple organisms usingPTML models.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
NASA NTRS2020

BDDs for Representing Data in Runtime Verification

A BDD (Boolean Decision Diagram) is a data structure for the compact representation of a Boolean function. It is equipped with efficient algorithms for minimization and for applying Boolean operators. The use of BDDs for representing Boolean functions, combined with symbolic algorithms, facilitated a leap in the capability of model checking for the verification of systems with a huge number of states. Recently BDDs were considered as an efficient representation of data for Runtime Verification (RV). We review here the basic theory of BDDs and summarize their use in model checking and specifically in runtime verification.

Peled, Doron↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering

This webinar provides an overview of the International Statistical Engineering Association (ISEA), and it illustrates the practice of statistical engineering at NASA. ISEA was formed to promote the study of how successful data-based problem-solving methods are leveraged to realize innovative opportunities and solve problems sustainably. ISEA is comprised of statisticians, engineers, scientists, and other professionals that exchange ideas and experiences in the development and application of statistical engineering theories. ISEA is building the body of knowledge of the statistical engineering discipline with a particular focus on improving academic preparation for tackling complex problems. Over the past 15 years, the practice of statistical engineering has gained recognition within NASA by spurring innovation and efficiency, and it has demonstrated significant impact. Aerospace research and development benefits from an application-focused statistical engineering perspective to accelerate learning, maximize knowledge, ensure strategic resource investment, and inform data-driven decisions. The second portion of this presentation provides an overview of infusing statistical engineering at NASA through pioneering case studies in aeronautics, space exploration, and atmospheric science.

Peter A Parker↗
NASA NTRS1993

Undecidability in macroeconomics

In this paper we study the difficulty of solving problems in economics. For this purpose, we adopt the notion of undecidability from recursion theory. We show that certain problems in economics are undecidable, i.e., cannot be solved by a Turing Machine, a device that is at least as powerful as any computational device that can be constructed. In particular, we prove that even in finite closed economies subject to a variable initial condition, in which a social planner knows the behavior of every agent in the economy, certain important social planning problems are undecidable. Thus, it may be impossible to make effective policy decisions. Philosophically, this result formally brings into question the Rational Expectations Hypothesis which assumes that each agent is able to determine what it should do if it wishes to maximize its utility. We show that even when an optimal rational forecast exists for each agency (based on the information currently available to it), agents may lack the ability to make these forecasts. For example, Lucas describes economic models as 'mechanical, artificial world(s), populated by ... interacting robots'. Since any mechanical robot can be at most as computationally powerful as a Turing Machine, such economies are vulnerable to the phenomenon of undecidability.

Chandra, Siddharth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Single-shot Quantum Signal Processing Interferometry

Quantum systems of infinite dimension, such as bosonic oscillators, provide vast resources for quantum sensing. Yet, a general theory on how to manipulate such bosonic modes for sensing beyond parameter estimation is unknown. We present a general algorithmic framework, quantum signal processing interferometry (QSPI), for quantum sensing at the fundamental limits of quantum mechanics by generalizing Ramsey-type interferometry. Our QSPI sensing protocol relies on performing nonlinear polynomial transformations on the oscillator's quadrature operators by generalizing quantum signal processing (QSP) from qubits to hybrid qubit-oscillator systems. We use our QSPI sensing framework to make efficient binary decisions on a displacement channel in the single-shot limit. Theoretical analysis suggests the sensing accuracy, given a single-shot qubit measurement, scales inversely with the sensing time or circuit depth of the algorithm. We further concatenate a series of such binary decisions to perform parameter estimation in a bit-by-bit fashion. Numerical simulations are performed to support these statements. Our QSPI protocol offers a unified framework for quantum sensing using continuous-variable bosonic systems beyond parameter estimation and establishes a promising avenue toward efficient and scalable quantum control and quantum sensing schemes beyond the NISQ era.

Physics↗
NASA NTRS1972

Handbook of operation and maintenance instructions for Model 5208A bit synchronizer unit

Electrical/mechanical characteristics, operation, theory of operation, parts list, and electrical diagrams for the model 5208A bit synchronizer unit are provided. The unit is capable of performing the functions of bit synchronization and signal conditioning on demodulated wave trains containing amplitude, frequency, and phase distortions, as well as additive noise. Operating frequencies in the 1 to 27 MHz bit rate range are accommodated through the use of discrete frequency plug-in subunits. The unit provides 0 and 180 degree clocks and either a single signal hard decision, or a three bit quantized soft decision data output.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metric Learning to Accelerate Convergence of Operator Splitting Methods

Recent developments in machine learning have led to promising advances in accelerating the solution of constrained optimization problems. Increasing demand for real-time decision-making capabilities in applications such as artificial intelligence and optimal control has led to a variety of proposed strategies for learning to produce fast solutions to optimization problems. For example, recent works have shown that it is possible to accelerate the convergence of optimization algorithms by learning to select their parameters, such as gradient descent stepsizes. This work proposes a new approach, in which the underlying metric spaces of proximal operator splitting algorithms are learned to maximize convergence rate. While prior works in optimization theory have derived optimal metrics in simple cases, no such result exists for many practical problem forms including general Quadratic Programming (QP). This paper shows how differentiable optimization can enable the end-to-end learning of proximal metrics, enhancing the convergence of proximal algorithms for QP problems beyond what is possible based on known theory. Additionally, the results illustrate a strong connection between the learned proximal metrics and active constraints at the optima, leading to an interpretation in which the predicted proximal metrics can be viewed as a form of active set prediction.

King, Ethan [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

How does ion temperature gradient turbulence depend on magnetic geometry? Insights from data and machine learning

Magnetic geometry has a significant effect on the level of turbulent transport in fusion plasmas. Here, we model and analyse this dependence using multiple machine learning methods and a dataset of >200 000 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence in diverse non-axisymmetric geometries. The dataset is generated using a large collection of both optimised and randomly generated stellarator equilibria. At fixed gradients and other input parameters, the turbulent heat flux varies between geometries by several orders of magnitude. Trends are apparent among the configurations with particularly high or particularly low heat flux. Regression and classification techniques from machine learning are then applied to extract patterns in the dataset. Due to a symmetry of the gyrokinetic equation, the heat flux and regressions thereof should be invariant to translations of the raw features in the parallel coordinate, similar to translation invariance in computer vision applications. Multiple regression models including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and decision trees can achieve reasonable predictive power for the heat flux in held-out test configurations, with highest accuracy for the CNNs. Using Spearman correlation, sequential feature selection and Shapley values to measure feature importance, it is consistently found that the most important geometric lever on the heat flux is the flux surface compression in regions of bad curvature. The second most important geometric feature relates to the magnitude of geodesic curvature. These two features align remarkably with surrogates that have been proposed based on theory, while the methods here allow a natural extension to more features for increased accuracy. The dataset, released with this publication, may also be used to test other proposed surrogates, and we find that many previously published proxies do correlate well with both the heat flux and stability boundary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗