Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Data Extrapolation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven emulation of modal aerosol microphysics via neural operator-based modeling

The complexity and the small characteristic scales of aerosol microphysical processes pose a big challenge for accurate and efficient Earth system simulations at regional and global scales. In this work, we construct and evaluate a surrogate model: the aerosol deep operator network (ADON), a physics-inspired dual-net architecture for emulating the aerosol microphysics parameterization suite in the version 2 of the Energy Earth System Model (E3SMv2). The current version of the surrogate model is trained on a dataset comprising 9.8 million samples obtained from a global E3SMv2 simulation with the horizontal resolution of about one degree under cloud-free conditions. Incorporating domain spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as principle components extracted from training data, the dual-net surrogate model effectively captures the intricate representations of aerosol and the relationship with atmospheric state variables, achieving an R-squared score over $$95.7\%$$ for all the lognormal aerosol modes in the extrapolated regime. The validated model provides feature importance of input variables and their impact on the predictive capacity of the surrogate model in relation to the E3SM. The computational cost of online inference time deployed on CPUs and GPUs with lower precisions highlights ADON’s efficiency and potential in robust predictive modeling for large-scale Earth system computations.

Bai, Zhe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Isospin dependence of the nuclear EMC effect from a global QCD analysis

We perform a new global QCD analysis of unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon from proton, deuteron, and A = 3 data, including recent measurements of He 3 / D and H 3 / D cross section ratios from the MARATHON experiment at Jefferson Lab. Simultaneously inferring the PDFs and nucleon off-shell corrections allows both to be determined consistently, without theoretical assumptions about the isospin dependence of nuclear effects. The analysis provides strong evidence for the need of nucleon off-shell corrections to describe the A = 3 data, with large isoscalar and a suggestion of nonzero isovector contributions in A ≤ 3 nuclei. We find that the extracted EMC ratios of nuclear to nucleon structure functions for A = 2 and 3 differ from those naively extrapolated from heavy nuclei down to low A .

Cocuzza, C. [William & Mary] (ORCID:00000003492292↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transfer learning of memory kernels for transferable coarse-graining of polymer dynamics

The present work concerns the transferability of coarse-grained (CG) modeling in reproducing the dynamic properties of the reference atomistic systems across a range of parameters. In particular, we focus on implicit-solvent CG modeling of polymer solutions. The CG model is based on the generalized Langevin equation, where the memory kernel plays the critical role in determining the dynamics in all time scales. Thus, we propose methods for transfer learning of memory kernels. The key ingredient of our methods is Gaussian process regression. By integration with the model order reduction via proper orthogonal decomposition and the active learning technique, the transfer learning can be practically efficient and requires minimum training data. Through two example polymer solution systems, we demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed transfer learning methods in the construction of transferable memory kernels. The transferability allows for out-of-sample predictions, even in the extrapolated domain of parameters. Built on the transferable memory kernels, the CG models can reproduce the dynamic properties of polymers in all time scales at different thermodynamic conditions (such as temperature and solvent viscosity) and for different systems with varying concentrations and lengths of polymers.

Ma, Zhan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanistic Modeling of Creep and Aging for Time Extrapolation in LPBF 316 SS - LANL

A polycrystal constitutive model was extended to quantify the effects heterogeneity in the microstructure, porosity, and internal stresses on the mechanical response (creep, tensile) of 316H steel processed by additive manufacturing. The starting point is a recently developed and fully calibrated advanced microstructuresensitive mechanistic constitutive model fit to literature data pertaining to conventionally processed steels. The model is embedded within the full field fast Fourier transform framework (LApx) and several hundred simulations were performed. Synthetic microstructures with different grain aspect ratios were generated using the Neper package to study the role of grain morphology on the mechanical responses. The effect of initial cell interior dislocation density, cell-wall density, precipitate content, porosity, and internal stresses on creep rates are quantified for different polycrystalline microstructures. The study allowed to prospectively quantify the role of distinct features of the microstructure on the mechanical response under tension and creep loading scenarios. Critically it is found that minor anisotropies in the tensile response of samples, emanating from the aspect ratio of grains correlated into significant differences in creep rate as a function of loading directions. The study also allows to identify initial microstructure porosities below which the materials response only moderately degraded by the initial microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy and Cyclic Voltammetry Methods for Monitoring SmCl 3 Concentration in Molten Eutectic LiCl-KCl

Molten salt solutions consisting of eutectic LiCl-KCl and concentrations of samarium chloride (0.5 to 3.0 wt%) at 500 C were analyzed using both cyclic voltammetry (CV) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The CV technique gave the average diffusion coefficient for Sm 3+ over the concentration range. Equipped with Sm 3+ diffusion coefficient, the Randles-Sevcik equation predicted Sm 3+ concentration values that agree with the given experimental values. From CV measurements; the anodic, cathodic, and half-peak potentials were identified and subsequently used as a parameter to acquire EIS spectra. A six-element Voigt model was used to model the EIS data in terms of resistance-time constant pairs. The lowest resistances were observed at the half-peak potential with the associated resistance-time constant pairs characterizing the reversible reaction between Sm 3+ and Sm 2+ . By extrapolation, the Voigt model estimated the polarization resistance and established a polarization resistance-concentration relationship.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Voltage Calculations in Secondary Distribution Networks via Physics-Inspired Neural Network Using Smart Meter Data

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) leads to voltage issues across distribution networks, necessitating voltage calculations by utilities. Electric model-free voltage calculation offers an enticing solution. However, most researches mainly focus on primary distribution networks ignoring secondary distribution networks and commonly overlook extreme voltage case calculations, which require the model’s extrapolation abilities. Here, in addressing the gaps, this paper presents a customized physics-inspired neural network (PINN) model, the structure of which is inspired by the derived coupled power flow model of primary-secondary distribution networks. To ensure precision and rapid convergence, a crafted training framework for the PINN model is proposed. The PINN’s “structure-mimetic” design enables superior extrapolation for unseen scenarios and enhances physical information awareness. We demonstrate this through two applications: hosting capacity analysis and customer-transformer connectivity. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed PINN model are validated on two public testing systems and one utility distribution feeder model.

Distribution network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Co-Expression Extrapolation (COXEN) Gene Selection Method for Building Anti-Cancer Drug Response Prediction Models

The co-expression extrapolation (COXEN) method has been successfully used in multiple studies to select genes for predicting the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. Here, we enhance the COXEN method to select genes that are predictive of the efficacies of multiple drugs for building general drug response prediction models that are not specific to a particular drug. The enhanced COXEN method first ranks the genes according to their prediction power for each individual drug and then takes a union of top predictive genes of all the drugs, among which the algorithm further selects genes whose co-expression patterns are well preserved between cancer cases for building prediction models. We apply the proposed method on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets and compare the performance of prediction models built based on the genes selected by the enhanced COXEN method to that of models built on genes selected by the original COXEN method and randomly picked genes. Models built with the enhanced COXEN method always present a statistically significantly improved prediction performance (adjusted p-value ≤ 0.05). Our results demonstrate the enhanced COXEN method can dramatically increase the power of gene expression data for predicting drug response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Support vector machine applied to STAR-GALAXY-QSO classification

Context. In modern astronomy, machine learning has proved to be efficient and effective in mining big data from the newest telescopes. Aims. In this study, we construct a supervised machine-learning algorithm to classify the objects in the Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey first data release (J-PLUS DR1). Methods. The sample set is featured with 12-waveband photometry and labeled with spectrum-based catalogs, including Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic data, the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, and VERONCAT – the Veron Catalog of Quasars & AGN. The performance of the classifier is presented with the applications of blind test validations based on RAdial Velocity Extension, the Kepler Input Catalog, the Two Micron All Sky Survey Redshift Survey, and the UV-bright Quasar Survey. A new algorithm was applied to constrain the potential extrapolation that could decrease the performance of the machine-learning classifier. Results. The accuracies of the classifier are 96.5% in the blind test and 97.0% in training cross-validation. The F1-scores for each class are presented to show the balance between the precision and the recall of the classifier. We also discuss different methods to constrain the potential extrapolation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the production cross section of prompt $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$ baryons in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{{\textrm{NN}}}}=5.02$ TeV

The transverse momentum (p T ) differential production cross section of the promptly produced charm-strange baryon $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$ (and its charge conjugate $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$) is measured at midrapidity via its hadronic decay into π + $\Xi$ – in p–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{{\textrm{NN}}}}=5.02$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$ nuclear modification factor (R pPb ), calculated from the cross sections in pp and p–Pb collisions, is presented and compared with the R pPb of Λ$^{+}_{c}$ baryons. The ratios between the p T -differential production cross section of $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$ baryons and those of D 0 mesons and Λ$^{+}_{c}$ baryons are also reported and compared with results at forward and backward rapidity from the LHCb Collaboration. The measurements of the production cross section of prompt $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$ baryons are compared with a model based on perturbative QCD calculations of charm-quark production cross sections, which includes only cold nuclear matter effects in p–Pb collisions, and underestimates the measurement by a factor of about 50. This discrepancy is reduced when the data is compared with a model that includes string formation beyond leading-colour approximation or in which hadronisation is implemented via quark coalescence. The p T -integrated cross section of prompt $\Xi ^0_{\textrm{c}}$-baryon production at midrapidity extrapolated down to p T = 0 is also reported. These measurements offer insights and constraints for theoretical calculations of the hadronisation process. Additionally, they provide inputs for the calculation of the charm production cross section in p–Pb collisions at midrapidity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Electrolyte Fluorination Impact on Calendar Aging of Blended Silicon-Graphite Lithium-Ion Cells Using Potentiostatic Holds

Silicon-based lithium-ion batteries have started to meet cycle life metrics, but they exhibit poor calendar life. Here, electrolyte fluorination impact on calendar fade of blended silicon-graphite anodes is explored using a LiPF 6 in EC:EMC:FEC electrolyte vs LiBOB in EC:EMC electrolyte. We utilize a combined experimental-modeling approach applying potentiostatic voltage holds (V-hold) to evaluate electrolyte suitability for calendar life in a shortened testing timeframe (~2 months). Our theoretical framework deconvolutes the irreversible parasitic capacity losses (lithium lost to the solid electrolyte interphase) from the V-hold electrochemical data. Unfluorinated electrolyte (dominant LiBOB reduction) exhibits higher cell resistance as compared to fluorinated electrolyte (dominant FEC reduction). Both systems have similar irreversible capacities during the voltage hold duration with slower rate of parasitic capacity loss for the LiBOB system. Extrapolation of the parasitic losses to end of life capacity fade of 20% shows LiBOB electrolyte outperforming LiPF 6 electrolyte in calendar life. The results demonstrate the applicability of the V-hold protocol as a rapid material screening tool providing semi-quantitative calendar lifetime estimates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Constitutive Model for the Inelastic Response of Metals: Application to 316H Steel

Here, predictions of the mechanical response of structural elements are conditioned by the accuracy of constitutive models used at the engineering length-scale. In this regard, a prospect of mechanistic crystal-plasticity-based constitutive models is that they could be used for extrapolation beyond regimes in which they are calibrated. However, their use for assessing the performance of a component is computationally onerous. To address this limitation, a new approach is proposed whereby a surrogate constitutive model (SM) of the inelastic response of 316H steel is derived from a mechanistic crystal plasticity-based polycrystal model tracking the evolution of dislocation densities on all slip systems. The latter is used to generate a database of the expected plastic response and dislocation content evolution associated with several instances of creep loading. From the database, a SM is developed. It relies on the use of orthogonal polynomial regression to describe the evolution of the dislocation content. The SM is then validated against predictions of the dead load creep response given by the polycrystal model across a range of temperatures and stresses. When the SM is used to predict the response of 316H during complex non monotonic loading, extrapolating to new loading conditions, it is found that predictions compare particularly well against those from the physics-based polycrystal model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing a robust strength model using physically-informed genetic programming

The strength of materials is influenced by a range of external conditions, such as temperature and deformation rate. Consequently, materials that demonstrate substantial variations in their mechanical behavior due to fluctuations in temperature and strain rate require complex strength models to accurately predict material performance in real-world applications. To predict such complex behavior, a robust and flexible strength model is necessary. In this work, we utilize genetic programming-based symbolic regression (GPSR) to develop data-driven strength models that accurately represent the measured stress–strain responses of tin across a wide range of strain, strain rate and temperature regimes. The GPSR models are constrained by physically-informed conditions, which leads to significant improvement in extrapolation. The best model is integrated into a multi-physics code to perform Taylor impact simulations, validating the model’s accuracy and robustness. In conclusion, the model predictions showed excellent agreement with experimental results, particularly when compared to predictions using traditional strength models.

Genetic programming↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning two-phase microstructure evolution using neural operators and autoencoder architectures

Abstract Phase-field modeling is an effective but computationally expensive method for capturing the mesoscale morphological and microstructure evolution in materials. Hence, fast and generalizable surrogate models are needed to alleviate the cost of computationally taxing processes such as in optimization and design of materials. The intrinsic discontinuous nature of the physical phenomena incurred by the presence of sharp phase boundaries makes the training of the surrogate model cumbersome. We develop a framework that integrates a convolutional autoencoder architecture with a deep neural operator (DeepONet) to learn the dynamic evolution of a two-phase mixture and accelerate time-to-solution in predicting the microstructure evolution. We utilize the convolutional autoencoder to provide a compact representation of the microstructure data in a low-dimensional latent space. After DeepONet is trained in the latent space, it can be used to replace the high-fidelity phase-field numerical solver in interpolation tasks or to accelerate the numerical solver in extrapolation tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relativistic mean-field theories for neutron-star physics based on chiral effective field theory

We describe and implement a procedure for determining the couplings of a relativistic mean-field theory (RMFT) that is optimized for application to neutron star phenomenology. In the standard RMFT approach, the couplings are constrained by comparing the theory's predictions for symmetric matter at saturation density with measured nuclear properties. The theory is then applied to neutron stars which consist of neutron-rich matter at densities ranging up to several times saturation density, which allows for additional astrophysical constraints. In our approach, rather than using the RMFT to extrapolate from symmetric to neutron-rich matter and from finite-sized nuclei to uniform matter, we fit the RMFT to properties of uniform pure neutron matter obtained from chiral effective field theory. Chiral effective field theory incorporates the experimental data for nuclei in the framework of a controlled expansion for nuclear forces valid at nuclear densities and enables us to account for theoretical uncertainties when fitting the RMFT. We construct four simple RMFTs that span the uncertainties provided by chiral effective field theory for neutron matter, and are consistent with current astrophysical constraints on the equation of state. Lastly, our RMFTs can be used to model the properties of neutron-rich matter across the vast range of densities and temperatures encountered in neutron stars and their mergers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effective Opacity of the Intergalactic Medium from Galaxy Spectra Analysis

We measure the effective opacity (τ{sub eff}) of the intergalactic medium from the composite spectra of 281 Lyman-break galaxies in the redshift range 2 ≲ z ≲ 3. Our spectra are taken from the COSMOS Lyα Mapping And Tomographic Observations survey derived from the Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on the W.M. Keck I telescope. We generate composite spectra in two redshift intervals and fit them with spectral energy distribution (SED) models composed of simple stellar populations. Extrapolating these SED models into the Lyα forest, we measure the effective Lyα opacity (τ{sub eff}) in the 2.02 ≤ z ≤ 2.44 range. At z = 2.22, we estimate τ{sub eff} =0.159±0.001 from a power-law fit to the data. These measurements are consistent with estimates from quasar analyses at z < 2.5 indicating that the systematic errors associated with normalizing quasar continua are not substantial. We provide a Gaussian processes model of our results and previous τ{sub eff} measurements that describes the steep redshift evolution in τ{sub eff} from z = 1.5–4.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗