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At least 415 records · Page 23

A nonhydrostatic version of the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model - Validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front

A nonhydrostatic extension to the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model is presented, which employs reference pressure as the basis for a terrain-following vertical coordinate, and the fully compressible system of equations. It is shown that this model, combined with the existing initialization techniques and the physics of the current hydrostatic model, is capable of real-data simulations on any scale, limited only by data quality and resolution and by computer resources. An example of an explosive cyclone simulation is presented, demonstrating the capability of the nonhydrostatic model to reproduce the hydrostatic model results at large scales.

Dudhia, Jimy↗

Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change

The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Demaria, Mark↗

In situ evidence of rapid, vertical, irreversible transport of lower tropospheric air into the lower tropical stratosphere by convective cloud turrets and by larger-scale upwelling in tropical cyclones

The STEP tropical objectives were successfully met during the flight experiments conducted from Darwin, Australia, January 16 to February 16, 1987. Necessary and sufficient measurements were made in, above, and downwind from very cold cirrus clouds, produced by three convective cloud types, to demonstrate irreversible mass transports into and dehydration in the lower tropical stratosphere. The three types are defined and described in terms of the physical processes that produce them and illustrated by examples derived from in situ and remote measurements. Intense solar heating is shown to produce, in addition to the usual vertical, sea breeze circulations normal to the coastline, an unusual pair of continental spanning, horizontal circulations. An upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric anticyclonic circulation, inclined upward toward the tropics, contributes to the dehydration of dissipating cirrus anvils and intensifies the upper level, tropical easterlies. The lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation with tropical westerlies and extratropical easterlies is in direct conflict with the normal tropical easterlies and extratropical westerlies. Impulsive switches between these two opposing lower-level wind systems create conditions favorable for each of these cloud types and explain the summer season's aperiodic variability.

Danielsen, Edwin F.↗

On the transport of trace gases by extra-tropical cyclones

Extratropical cyclones are able to transport trace gases through the whole troposphere and lower stratosphere. At mid-latitudes most of the ozone transport from the lower stratosphere down into the troposphere is accomplished by depressions. The changing the total ozone contents, associated with the variable tropopause heights, are shown to be clearly visible in satellite ozone data.

Allaart, Marc A. F.↗

An explicit three-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone

A nonhydrostatic numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone is performed with explicit representation of cumulus on a meso-beta scale grid and for a brief period on a meso-gamma scale grid. Individual cumulus plumes are represented by a combination of explicit resolution and a 1.5 level closure predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).

Tripoli, G. J.↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

A comprehensive analysis has been conducted of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring within a landfalling tropical cyclone that produced an outbreak of strong and damaging tornadoes. Radar data indicate that 12 convective cells were responsible for 29 tornadoes, several of which received an F3 intensity rating, in the southeastern United States on 16 August 1994 within the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl. Of these 12 tornadic storms, the most active cell produced 315 flashes over a 5.5 hour period, while the other storms were less active. Three tornadic storms failed to produce any CG lightning at all. In general, the tornadic storms were more active electrically than other non-tornadic cells within Beryl's remnants, although the flash rates were rather modest by comparison with significant midlatitude severe storm events. Very few positive polarity flashes were found in the Beryl outbreak. During some of the stronger tornadoes, CG flash rates in the parent storms showed sharp transient decreases. Doppler radar data suggest the stronger tornadic storms were small supercells, and the lightning data indicate these storms exhibited lightning characteristics similar to those found in heavy-precipitation supercell storms.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Condensed Water in Tropical Cyclone "Oliver", 8 February 1993

On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1-11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone "Oliver" over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at -5 C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 x 10(exp 3)/cu m, the geometric mean diameter D(sub g) = 0.5-0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7-1.9 g m(exp-3). The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 x 10(exp 3) m(exp -3)) but a higher condensed water content(5.4 g/cu m estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 x 10(exp 4)/cu m, smallest size (D(sub g) = 0.3-0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 x 10 (exp 2) sq cm/cu m at 0.4- 1.0 g/cu m of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (- 40 C) at 35,000 feet ( 10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2/km) and backscatter (0.8/sr/km) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Tropical Cyclone Lightning Distribution and Its Relationship to Convection and Intensity Change

The long distance National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) was used to monitor the distribution of lightning strokes in various 1998 and 1999 western North Atlantic tropical cyclones. These ground-based lightning observations together with the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Tropical Rain Mapping Mission (TRMM) Microwave Instrument (TMI) derived convective rain rates were used to monitor the propagation of electrically charged convective rain bands aid to qualitatively estimate intensification. An example of the lightning analyses was performed on hurricane George between 25-28 September, 1998 when the system left Key West and moved towards the Louisiana coast. During this period of time, George's maximum winds increased from 38 to 45 meters per second on 25 September and then remained steady state until it made landfall. Time-radius displays of the lightning strokes indicated that the greatest number of lightning strokes occurred within the outer core region (greater than 165 km) with little or no lightning strokes at radii less than 165 km. The trend in these lightning strokes decreased as George move into the Gulf of Mexico and showed no inward propagation. The lack inward propagating lightning strokes with time indicated that there was no evidence that an eye wall replacement was occurring that could alter George's intensity. Since George was steady state at this time, this result is not surprising. Time-azimuth displays of lightning strokes in an annulus whose outer and inner radii were respectively, 222 and 333 km from George's center were also constructed. A result from this analysis indicated that the maximum number of strokes occurred in the forward and rear right quadrant when George was over the Gulf of Mexico. This result is, consistent with the aircraft and satellite observations of maximum rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward↗

Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for "named storms," tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin reveal that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity (i.e., having seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates). For example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. For tropical storms, its 10-year moving average has more than doubled over the past 50 years, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of 3 or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, following a 25-year lull in activity. Taken together, the outlook for this year and immediately succeeding years is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above their long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Seasonal Rates for Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Present Epoch

Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for "named storms," tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 1950 suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity. Consequently, the outlook for the 2001 hurricane season and immediately succeeding seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above their long-term median rates, especially when the season is designated non-El Nino-related. Only when the season is designated El Nino-related does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones (1950-1999)

Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for 'named storms,' tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity, marked by seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates. As an example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. Also, the 10-year moving average for tropical storms has more than doubled, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of three or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their respective 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, a response to the abrupt increase in seasonal rates that occurred in 1995. Taken together, the outlook for future hurricane seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Doppler Radar and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The Relationship of Tropical Cyclone Convective Intensity to Passive Microwave Observations

During the 1998 and 2001 hurricane seasons, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) was flown aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes and tropical storms were sampled during these experiments. The passive microwave observations of these tropical cyclones collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz will be presented to explain differences in precipitation features of the hurricanes. In particular, the relationship of the passive microwave signatures of precipitation-sized ice to vertical updraft strength will be examined as a possible indicator of future convective intensity. Correlated aircraft radar, lightning, visible and infrared information will also be examined to provide further insight.

Hood, Robbie E.↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

Hudson, J. G.↗

Sensitivities of Modeled Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter

In this investigation the sensitivities of a 2-D tropical cyclone (TC) model to surface frictional coefficient and the Coriolis parameter are studied and their implication is discussed. The model used is an axisymmetric version of the latest version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. The model has stretched vertical grids with 33 levels varying from 30 m near the bottom to 1140 m near the top. The vertical domain is about 21 km. The horizontal domain covers a radius of 962 km (770 grids) with a grid size of 1.25 km. The time step is 10 seconds. An open lateral boundary condition is used. The sea surface temperature is specified at 29C. Unless specified otherwise, the Coriolis parameter is set at its value at 15 deg N. The Newtonian cooling is used with a time scale of 12 hours. The reference vertical temperature profile used in the Newtonian cooling is that of Jordan. The Newtonian cooling models not only the effect of radiative processes but also the effect of processes with scale larger than that of TC. Our experiments showed that if the Newtonian cooling is replaced by a radiation package, the simulated TC is much weaker. The initial condition has a temperature uniform in the radial direction and its vertical profile is that of Jordan. The initial winds are a weak Rankin vortex in the tangential winds superimposed on a resting atmosphere. The initial sea level pressure is set at 1015 hPa everywhere. Since there is no surface pressure perturbation, the initial condition is not in gradient balance. This initial condition is enough to lead to cyclogenesis, but the initial stage (say, the first 24 hrs) is not considered to resemble anything observed. The control experiment reaches quasi-equilibration after about 10 days with an eye wall extending from 15 to 25 km radius, reasonable comparing with the observations. The maximum surface wind of more than 70 m/s is located at about 18 km radius. The minimum sea level pressure on day 10 is about 886 hPa. Thus the overall simulation is considered successful and the model is considered adequate for our investigation.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Wu, Li-Guang↗

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Types and Electrical Field Information Observed by High Altitude Aircraft Instrumentation

During the 1998 and 200 1 hurricane seasons of the Atlantic Ocean Basin, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), the ER-2 Doppler (EDOP) radar, and the Lightning Instrument Package (LIP) were flown aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of the Third Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) and the Fourth Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4). Several hurricanes and tropical storms were sampled during these experiments. A rainfall screening technique has been developed using AMPR passive microwave observations of these tropical cyclones (TC) collected at frequencies of 10.7, 19.35,37.1, and 85.5 GHz and verified using vertical profiles of EDOP reflectivity and lower altitude horizontal reflectivity scam collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOM) P-3 radar. Matching the rainfall classification results with coincident electrical field information collected by the LIP readily identifl convective rain regions within the TC precipitation fields. Strengths and weaknesses of the rainfall classification procedure will be discussed as well as its potential as a real-time analysis tool for monitoring vertical updrafl strength and convective intensity from a remotely operated or uninhabited aerial vehicle.

Hood, Robbie E.↗