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NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing and Predicting Effort Associated with Finding and Fixing Software Faults

Context: Software developers spend a significant amount of time fixing faults. However, not many papers have addressed the actual effort needed to fix software faults. Objective: The objective of this paper is twofold: (1) analysis of the effort needed to fix software faults and how it was affected by several factors and (2) prediction of the level of fix implementation effort based on the information provided in software change requests. Method: The work is based on data related to 1200 failures, extracted from the change tracking system of a large NASA mission. The analysis includes descriptive and inferential statistics. Predictions are made using three supervised machine learning algorithms and three sampling techniques aimed at addressing the imbalanced data problem. Results: Our results show that (1) 83% of the total fix implementation effort was associated with only 20% of failures. (2) Both safety critical failures and post-release failures required three times more effort to fix compared to non-critical and pre-release counterparts, respectively. (3) Failures with fixes spread across multiple components or across multiple types of software artifacts required more effort. The spread across artifacts was more costly than spread across components. (4) Surprisingly, some types of faults associated with later life-cycle activities did not require significant effort. (5) The level of fix implementation effort was predicted with 73% overall accuracy using the original, imbalanced data. Using oversampling techniques improved the overall accuracy up to 77%. More importantly, oversampling significantly improved the prediction of the high level effort, from 31% to around 85%. Conclusions: This paper shows the importance of tying software failures to changes made to fix all associated faults, in one or more software components and/or in one or more software artifacts, and the benefit of studying how the spread of faults and other factors affect the fix implementation effort.

software fix implementation effort↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Regional Map of Mangrove Extent for Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia Shows Losses of 44% By 1996

Southeast Asia is home to some of the planet’s most carbon-dense and biodiverse mangrove ecosystems. There is still much uncertainty with regards to the timing and magnitude of changes in mangrove cover over the past 50 years. While there are several regional to global maps of mangrove extent in Southeast Asia over the past two decades, data prior to the mid-1990s is limited due to the scarcity of Earth Observation data of sufficient quality and the historical limitations to publicly available EO. We present a classification of mangrove extent using Landsat 1-2 MSS Tier 2 data from 1972-1977 for three Southeast Asian countries: Myanmar, Thailand, and Cambodia. Mangrove extent land cover maps were generated using a Random Forest machine learning algorithm that effectively mapped a total of 15,420.51 km2. Accuracy assessments indicated that the classification for the mangrove and non-mangrove class had a producer’s accuracy of 79.63 % and 98.24 %a user’s accuracy of 89.58 % and 96.21 %, and an overall accuracy of 95.26 % . We found a decline of 6,830 km2 between the 1970’s and 2020, showing that44.29% of the mangrove area in these countries has been lost in the past 48 years. Most of this loss occurred between the 1970’s and 1996; rates of deforestation declined dramatically after 1996. This study also urges that these results be considered within the context of the local need for these coastal resources that helped them endure the political and financial challenges of their coastal homes.

Priscilla Baltezar↗
NASA NTRS1994

A Numerical Comparison of Barrier and Modified Barrier Methods for Large-Scale Bound-Constrained Optimization

When a classical barrier method is applied to the solution of a nonlinear programming problem with inequality constraints, the Hessian matrix of the barrier function becomes increasingly ill-conditioned as the solution is approached. As a result, it may be desirable to consider alternative numerical algorithms. We compare the performance of two methods motivated by barrier functions. The first is a stabilized form of the classical barrier method, where a numerically stable approximation to the Newton direction is used when the barrier parameter is small. The second is a modified barrier method where a barrier function is applied to a shifted form of the problem, and the resulting barrier terms are scaled by estimates of the optimal Lagrange multipliers. The condition number of the Hessian matrix of the resulting modified barrier function remains bounded as the solution to the constrained optimization problem is approached. Both of these techniques can be used in the context of a truncated-Newton method, and hence can be applied to large problems, as well as on parallel computers. In this paper, both techniques are applied to problems with bound constraints and we compare their practical behavior.

Nash, Stephen G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗
NASA NTRS2020

Planning and Optimization for Multi-robot Planetary Cave Exploration under Intermittent Connectivity Constraints

Exploring subsurface structures with autonomous robots is of growing interest in the context of planetary caves studies. Communication between robots in these environments is severely degraded which complicates coordination and information distribution. In this paper we focus on planning for mobility and communication in a cave exploration scenario where the situational awareness of a static base station is critical. We propose a notion of information-consistency where a plan itself is part of the information to be shared between robots, and propose a method for generating information-consistent plans. We discuss in detail how the resulting plan can be robustly implemented with minimal communication through local mission executives that run on individual robots. We describe preliminary results on the performance of the planning algorithm and integration of the local mission executives in a high-fidelity simulation environment.

Murray, Richard M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

State-of-the-Art: Small Spacecraft Technology

When the first edition of NASA’s Small Spacecraft Technology State-of-the-art report was published in 2013, 247 CubeSats and 105 other non-CubeSat small spacecraft under 50 kilograms (kg) had been launched worldwide, representing less than 2% of launched mass into orbit over multiple years. In 2013 alone, around 60% of the total spacecraft launched had a mass under 600 kg, and of those under 600 kg, 83% were under 200 kg and 37% were nanosatellites (1). Of the total 1,849 spacecraft launched in 2021, 94% were small spacecraft with an overall mass under 600 kg, and of those under 600 kg, 40% were under 200 kg, and 11% were nanosatellites (1). Since 2013, the fight heritage for small spacecraft has increased by over 30% and has become the primary source to space access for commercial, government, private, and academic institutions. The total number of spacecraft launched in the past 10 years is 5,681 and 45% of those had a mass. As with all previous editions of this report, the 2022 edition captures and distills a wealth of new information available on small spacecraft systems from NASA and other publicly available sources. This report is limited to publicly available information and cannot reflect major advances in development that are not publicly disclosed. We encourage any opportunity to publish mission outcomes and technology development milestones (e.g., via conference papers, press releases, company website) so they can be reflected in this report. Overall, this report is a survey of small spacecraft technologies sourced from open literature; it does not endeavor to be an original source, and only considers literature in the public domain to identify and classify devices. Commonly used sources for data include manufacturer datasheets, press releases, conference papers, journal papers, public filings with government agencies, news articles, presentations, the compendium of databases accessed via NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI) Information Search, and engagement with companies. Data not appropriate for public dissemination, such as proprietary, export controlled, or otherwise restricted data, are not considered. As a result, this report includes many dedicated hours of desk research performed by subject matter experts reviewing resources noted above. Content in this 2022 edition is based on data available by October 2022. This report should not be considered as a comprehensive overview of all the technologies but a great reference for the current state-of-the-art SmallSat technologies. The organizational approach for each chapter is relatively consistent with previous editions and includes an introduction of the technology, current development status of the technology’s procurable systems, and summary tables of technologies surveyed. The content in each chapter is uniquely organized to present a mini-stand-alone report on spacecraft subsystems. As in previous years, chapters include information from previous editions but are updated with new and maturating technologies and reference missions. Tables in each section provide a convenient summary of the technologies discussed, with explanations and references in the body text. The authors have attempted to isolate trends in the small spacecraft industry to point out which technologies have been adopted after successful demonstration missions. Lastly, the authors tried to use the terms “SmallSat,” “microsatellite,” “nanosatellite,” and “CubeSat” in a consistent manner, even as these terms are often used interchangeably in the space industry. Every subsystem chapter contains updated information to reflect the growth in the small spacecraft market. Significant changes are included in several chapters. The “Complete Spacecraft Platforms” chapter now includes information on the two main market options, hosted payload services and dedicated buses. The “Power” chapter provides information on the development of solid-state batteries with significantly higher energy than the current state-of-theart lithium-ion batteries. A large effort was made to update the “Communications” chapter to appropriately capture the recent technology maturation of optical communications for SmallSats. The “Ground Data Systems and Mission Operations” chapter was updated to reflect the recent establishment of the Near Space Network and influx of SmallSat Optical Ground Stations. The “Guidance, Navigation and Control” chapter was updated to include Lidar sensor technology. The “Deorbit Systems” chapter includes a discussion of recently proposed changes by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to limit a spacecraft’s lifetime to no longer than 5 years after end-of-mission. The “Identification and Tracking” Chapter includes updated information on the progress of SmallSat tracking. Finally, this report now encompasses technology funded by NASA’s Small Spacecraft Technology (SST) program’s SmallSat Technology Partnerships (STP) initiative which is described further in this Introduction. The reader can find the included SST technology in the “On the Horizon” section of the “Thermal Systems”, “Communications”, and “Guidance, Navigation, and Control” chapters. A central element of this report is to list state-of-the-art technologies by NASA standard Technology Readiness Level (TRL) as defined by the 2020 NASA Engineering Handbook, found in NASA NPR 7123.1C NASA Systems Engineering Processes and Requirements. The authors have endeavored to independently verify the TRL value of each technology by reviewing and citing published test results or publicly available data to the best of their ability. Where test results and data disagree with vendors’ own advertised TRL, the authors have attempted to engage the vendors to discuss the discrepancy. Readers are strongly encouraged to follow the references cited in the literature describing the full performance range and capabilities of each technology. Readers of this report should reach out to individual companies to further clarify information. It is important to note that this report takes a broad system-level view. To attain a high TRL, the subsystem must be in a flight-ready configuration with all supporting infrastructure—such as mounting points, power conversion, and control algorithms—in an integrated unit. An accurate TRL assessment requires a high degree of technical knowledge on a subject device, and an in-depth understanding of the mission (including interfaces and environment) on which the device was flown. There is variability in TRL values depending on design factors for a specific technology. For example, differences in TRL assessment based on the operating environment may result from the thermal environment, mechanical loads, mission duration, or radiation exposure. If a technology has flown on a mission without success, or without providing valid confirmation to the operator, such claimed “flight heritage” was discounted. The authors believe TRLs are most accurately determined when assessed within the context of a program’s unique requirements. While the overall capability of small spacecraft has matured since the 2021 edition of this report, technologies are still being developed to make deep space SmallSat missions more routine and more cost effective. Future editions of this report may include content dedicated to the rapidly growing fields of assembly, integration, and testing services, and mission modeling and simulation–all of which are now extensively represented at small spacecraft conferences. Many of these subsystems and services are still in their infancy, but as they evolve and reliable conventions and standards emerge, the next iteration of this report may also evolve to include additional chapters.

Bruce Yost↗
NASA NTRS2015

Global Precipitation Measurement Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx): For Measurement Sake Let it Snow

As a component of the Earth's hydrologic cycle, and especially at higher latitudes,falling snow creates snow pack accumulation that in turn provides a large proportion of the fresh water resources required by many communities throughout the world. To assess the relationships between remotely sensed snow measurements with in situ measurements, a winter field project, termed the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx), was carried out in the winter of 2011-2012 in Ontario, Canada. Its goal was to provide information on the precipitation microphysics and processes associated with cold season precipitation to support GPM snowfall retrieval algorithms that make use of a dual-frequency precipitation radar and a passive microwave imager on board the GPM core satellite,and radiometers on constellation member satellites. Multi-parameter methods are required to be able to relate changes in the microphysical character of the snow to measureable parameters from which precipitation detection and estimation can be based. The data collection strategy was coordinated, stacked, high-altitude and in-situ cloud aircraft missions with three research aircraft sampling within a broader surface network of five ground sites taking in-situ and volumetric observations. During the field campaign 25 events were identified and classified according to their varied precipitation type, synoptic context, and precipitation amount. Herein, the GCPEx fieldcampaign is described and three illustrative cases detailed.

GCPEx↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will be discussing the progress made developing SWIPE: Spectral Water Inversion Processor and Emulator. SWIPE is a platform for advanced modeling of coastal and inland aquatic habitats. The goal is create a comprehensive and cohesive system to leverage recent advancements in computation and machine learning to develop a synthetic training ground for sensitivity studies and algorithm development. The four principal facets of SWIPE include: 1. Advanced two-layer coated sphere bio-optical modeling and GPU radiative transfer modeling, 2. Big Data involving massive synthetic spectral libraries of optical properties of various global aquatic particles, surface reflectance, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance, all at hyperspectral resolution leveraging high-end computing systems at NASA Ames Research Center, 3. Deep Learning for algorithm development for water quality inversion of concentrations of common biogeophysical variables as well as optics, full uncertainty characterization by water type, and forward emulation, and lastly, 4. Image Processing for application of developed retrieval algorithms for both hyperspectral and multispectral sensors with experimental corrections for global adjacency, noise, sunglint, and benthic reflectance. This presentation will demonstrate the Equivalent Algal Populations (EAP) two-layer coated sphere scattering model which has been used develop spectral libraries of hyperspectral inherent optical properties of roughly 80 species of phytoplankton, covering 15 different classes and nine taxonomic functional types. The EAP model was also used to derive spectral properties of 10 different non-algal particle functional types. Examples of how the SMART-G (Speed-up Monte-carlo Advanced Radiative Transfer using GPU) radiative transfer code is used to model optically complex aquatic signals will be presented and discussed in the context of creating a massive synthetic database which can leverage the full power of next generation machine learning techniques and high end computing for water quality inversion. We will discuss our active investigation in things like appropriate model architectures, dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and autoencoders, uncertainty quantification and abstaining, and which variables actually benefit most from hyperspectral information versus multispectral resolution. We are also curious about questions relating to cost/benefit analysis in terms of computation resources, neural network complexity, and data volumes. Answers to these questions will hopefully elaborate on cost efficiency for potential future sensor design considerations.

SWIPE↗
NASA NTRS1988

Near UV atmospheric absorption measurements from the DC-8 aircraft during the 1987 airborne Antarctic ozone experiment

During the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment from 28 August to 30 September 1987 near UV zenith scattered sky measurements were made over Antarctic from the NASA DC-8 aircraft using a one third m spectrograph equipped with a diode-array detector. Scattered sky light data in the wavelength range 348 nm to 388 nm was spectrally analyzed for O3, NO2, OClO, and BrO column abundances. Slant column abudances of O3, NO2, OClO and BrO were determined, using a computer algorithm of non-linear and linear least square correlation of Antarctic scattered sky spectra to laboratory absorption cross section data. Using measured vertical electrochemical sonde ozone profiles from Palmer, Halley Bay, and the South Pole Stations the slant columns of O3 were converted into vertical column abundances. The vertical column amounts of NO2, OClO, and BrO were derived using vertical profiles calculated by a chemical model appropriate for Antarctica. NO2 vertical column abundances show steep latitudinal decrease with increasing latitude for all 13 flights carried out during the mission. In the regions where NO2 abudances are low, OClO and BrO were observed. The spatial and temporal vertical column abundances of these species are discussed in the context of the chemistry and dynamics in the antarctic polar vortex during the austral spring.

Wahner, A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

GC13I-0860: An Assessment of Surface Water Detection Methods for the Tahoua Region, Niger

The recent release of several global surface water datasets derived from remotely sensed data has allowed for unprecedented analysis of the earth's hydrologic processes at a global scale. However, some of these datasets fail to identify important sources of surface water, especially small ponds, in the Sahel, an arid region of Africa that forms a border zone between the Sahara Desert to the north, and the savannah to the south. These ponds may seem insignificant in the context of wider, global-scale hydrologic processes, but smaller sources of water are important for local and regional hydrologic assessments. Particularly, these smaller water bodies are significant sources of hydration and irrigation for nomadic pastoralists and smallholder farmers throughout the Sahel. For this study, several methods of identifying surface water from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel 1 SAR, Sentinel 2 MSI, and Planet Dove data were compared to determine the most effective means of delineating these features in the Tahoua Region of Niger. The Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEInsh) had the best performance when validated against very high resolution Digital Globe imagery, with an overall accuracy of 98.6%. This study reiterates the importance of region-specific algorithms and suggests that the AWEInsh method may be the best for delineating surface water in the Sahelian ecozone, likely due to the nature of the exposed geology and lack of dense green vegetation.

Herndon, Kelsey E.↗
NASA NTRS2017

MapX An In Situ, Full-frame X-Ray Spectroscopic Imager for Planetary Science and Astrobiology

Microbial life exploits micron-scale disequilibria at boundaries where valence, chemical potential, pH, Eh, etc. vary on a length scale commensurate with the organisms - 10's to 100's of microns. The detection of accumulations of the biogenic elements C,N,O,P,S at appropriate concentrations on or in a mineral/ice substrate would constitute permissive evidence of extant life, but context is also required. Does the putative biosignature exist under habitable conditions? Under what conditions of P, T, and chemical potential was the host mineralogy formed? MapX is an in situ robotic spacecraft instrument that images the biogenic elements C, N, O, P, S, as well as the cations of the rock-forming minerals (Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe) and important anions such as Cl, Fl. MapX provides element maps with less than or equal to100 microns resolution over a 2.5 cm X 2.5 cm area, as well as quantitative XRF spectra from ground- or instrument-selected Regions of Interest (ROI). XRF spectra are converted to mineralogies using ground- or instrument-based algorithms. Either X-ray tube or radioisotope sources such as 244Cm (Alpha-particle and gamma- ray fluorescence) can be used. Fluoresced sample Xrays are imaged onto an X-ray sensitive CCD through an X-ray MicroPore Optic (MPO). The MapX design as well as baseline performance requirements for a MapX instrument intended for life detection / identification of habitable environments will be presented.

Astrobiology↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Census of Young Stellar Objects in Two Line-of-Sight Star-Forming Regions Toward IRAS 22147+5948 in the Outer Galaxy

Context. Star formation in the outer Galaxy, namely, outside of the Solar circle, has not been extensively studied in part due to the low CO brightness of the molecular clouds linked with the negative metallicity gradient. Recent infrared surveys provide an overview of dust emission in large sections of the Galaxy, but they suffer from cloud confusion and poor spatial resolution at far-infrared wavelengths. Aims. We aim to develop a methodology to identify and classify young stellar objects (YSOs) in star-forming regions in the outer Galaxy and use it to resolve a long-standing disparity in terms of the distance and evolutionary status of IRAS 22147+5948. Methods. We used a support vector machine learning algorithm to complement standard color–color and color–magnitude diagrams in our search for YSOs in the IRAS 22147 region, based on publicly available data from the Spitzer Mapping of the Outer Galaxy survey. The agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm was used to identify clusters. Then the physical properties of individual YSOs were calculated. The distances were determined using CO 1–0 from the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory survey. Results. We identified 13 Class I and 13 Class II YSO candidates using the color–color diagrams, along with an additional 2 and 21 sources, respectively, using the applied machine learning techniques. The spectral energy distributions of 23 sources were modeled with a star and a passive disk, corresponding to Class II objects. The models of three sources include envelopes that are typical for Class I objects. The objects were grouped into two clusters located at a distance of 2:2 kpc and 5 clusters at 5:6 kpc. The spatial extent of CO, radio continuum, and dust emission confirms the origin of YSOs in two distinct star-forming regions along a similar line of sight. Conclusions. The outer Galaxy may serve as a unique laboratory for exploring star formation across environments, on the condition that complementary methods and ancillary data are used to properly account for cloud confusion and distance uncertainties.

Agata Karska↗
NASA NTRS1989

Zonal multigrid solution of compressible flow problems on unstructured and adaptive meshes

The simultaneous use of adaptive meshing techniques with a multigrid strategy for solving the 2-D Euler equations in the context of unstructured meshes is studied. To obtain optimal efficiency, methods capable of computing locally improved solutions without recourse to global recalculations are pursued. A method for locally refining an existing unstructured mesh, without regenerating a new global mesh is employed, and the domain is automatically partitioned into refined and unrefined regions. Two multigrid strategies are developed. In the first, time-stepping is performed on a global fine mesh covering the entire domain, and convergence acceleration is achieved through the use of zonal coarse grid accelerator meshes, which lie under the adaptively refined regions of the global fine mesh. Both schemes are shown to produce similar convergence rates to each other, and also with respect to a previously developed global multigrid algorithm, which performs time-stepping throughout the entire domain, on each mesh level. However, the present schemes exhibit higher computational efficiency due to the smaller number of operations on each level.

Mavriplis, Dimitri J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Recommendations on Evidence and Process for Certification of Learning-enabled Components in Aerospace Systems

This report primarily identifies a collection of relevant and necessary evidence for assurance of machine learnt components (MLCs)—also known as learning-enabled components—integrated into aircraft systems, and gives preliminary suggestions on the elements of a certification process that invoke the identified evidence. The main focus is on feedforward neural networks that are static and trained offline through supervised learning. A brief background on the generic elements of the lifecycle of an MLC is given to contextualize the assurance considerations and, consequently, the evidence that is relevant and necessary to support certification. At the level of an MLC, those considerations relate to: (i) the consistency and correctness of MLC contributions to system functions in the context of a validated functional intent; and (ii) the absence of MLC contributions to aircraft-level failure conditions. At an ML model level, confidence in model and data properties contribute to assurance of the containing MLC, in particular: (a) generalizability and robustness of models, in the presence of inputs not previously seen during training, disturbances to inputs, and unexpected inputs; and (b) valid data, i.e., data that are at least representative, relevant, complete, and accurate. Evidence for the above span the elements of the ML lifecycle, and includes, at a minimum, lifecycle artifacts that pertain to: (1) properties of requirements capturing functional intent, safety constraints, and aspects of the intended use and operating environment; (2) model performance, model complexity and design, and algorithm choice; (3) achievement of required performance at the levels of a trained model during model development, a trained model after model development is complete, and a trained model that is transformed into an executable equivalent; (4) model implementation aspects necessary for transforming a trained model into the executable equivalent; (5) integration of the executable trained model into the containing MLC, and eventually the larger system; and, (6) lastly, the verification and validation (V&V) of each of the above. Such V&V lifecycle artifacts themselves include: aspects of coverage, e.g., of various levels of requirements by the input space of the model and the data; traceability (where applicable); application of formal methods for property specification, analysis, and checking. Examples of evidence generation methods and tools further ground the discussion on what constitutes evidence, and the contribution to assurance during certification. The identified assurance considerations and supporting evidence is not a comprehensive set. Additionally, neither what should be considered as sufficient evidence relative to the assigned criticality of an MLC, nor how criticality ought to be determined and adjusted, have been considered in this report. However, suggestions are made for potential activities of the ML lifecycle that are aimed at providing confidence that an MLC can be relied upon when integrated into its containing (aircraft) system. Those activities are proposed as candidate elements of a certification process for MLCs. The main purpose of this report to inform regulatory guidance and consensus standards that may be used to meet the safety intent of the applicable regulations.

Aviation safety↗
NASA NTRS2020

An AeroCom–AeroSat study: intercomparison of satellite AOD datasets for aerosol model evaluation

To better understand and characterize current uncertainties in the important observational constraint of climate models of aerosol optical depth (AOD), we evaluate and intercompare 14 satellite products, representing nine different retrieval algorithm families using observations from five different sensors on six different platforms. The satellite products (super-observations consisting of 1°×1° daily aggregated retrievals drawn from the years 2006, 2008 and 2010) are evaluated with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data. Results show that different products exhibit different regionally varying biases (both under- and overestimates) that may reach ±50 %, although a typical bias would be 15 %–25 % (depending on the product). In addition to these biases, the products exhibit random errors that can be 1.6 to 3 times as large. Most products show similar performance, although there are a few exceptions with either larger biases or larger random errors. The intercomparison of satellite products extends this analysis and provides spatial context to it. In particular, we show that aggregated satellite AOD agrees much better than the spatial coverage (often driven by cloud masks) within the 1°×1° grid cells. Up to ∼50 % of the difference between satellite AOD is attributed to cloud contamination. The diversity in AOD products shows clear spatial patterns and varies from 10 % (parts of the ocean) to 100 % (central Asia and Australia). More importantly, we show that the diversity may be used as an indication of AOD uncertainty, at least for the better performing products. This provides modellers with a global map of expected AOD uncertainty in satellite products, allows assessment of products away from AERONET sites, can provide guidance for future AERONET locations and offers suggestions for product improvements. We account for statistical and sampling noise in our analyses. Sampling noise, variations due to the evaluation of different subsets of the data, causes important changes in error metrics. The consequences of this noise term for product evaluation are discussed.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2015

How Certain are We of the Uncertainties in Recent Ozone Profile Trend Assessments of Merged Limbo Ccultation Records? Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

Merging Algorithms↗
NASA NTRS1992

A demonstration of an intelligent control system for a reusable rocket engine

An Intelligent Control System for reusable rocket engines is under development at NASA Lewis Research Center. The primary objective is to extend the useful life of a reusable rocket propulsion system while minimizing between flight maintenance and maximizing engine life and performance through improved control and monitoring algorithms and additional sensing and actuation. This paper describes current progress towards proof-of-concept of an Intelligent Control System for the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A subset of identifiable and accommodatable engine failure modes is selected for preliminary demonstration. Failure models are developed retaining only first order effects and included in a simplified nonlinear simulation of the rocket engine for analysis under closed loop control. The engine level coordinator acts as an interface between the diagnostic and control systems, and translates thrust and mixture ratio commands dictated by mission requirements, and engine status (health) into engine operational strategies carried out by a multivariable control. Control reconfiguration achieves fault tolerance if the nominal (healthy engine) control cannot. Each of the aforementioned functionalities is discussed in the context of an example to illustrate the operation of the system in the context of a representative failure. A graphical user interface allows the researcher to monitor the Intelligent Control System and engine performance under various failure modes selected for demonstration.

Musgrave, Jeffrey L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

3D Radiative Transfer Effects in Multi-Angle/Multi-Spectral Radio-Polarimetric Signals from a Mixture of Clouds and Aerosols Viewed by a Non-Imaging Sensor

When observing a spatially complex mix of aerosols and clouds in a single relatively large field-of-view, nature entangles their signals non-linearly through polarized radiation transport processes that unfold in the 3D position and direction spaces. In contrast, any practical forward model in a retrieval algorithm will use only 1D vector radiative transfer (vRT) in a linear mixing technique. We assess the difference between the observed and predicted signals using synthetic data from a high-fidelity 3D vRT model with clouds generated using a Large Eddy Simulation model and an aerosol climatology. We find that this difference is signal--not noise--for the Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS), an instrument developed by NASA. Moreover, the worst case scenario is also the most interesting case, namely, when the aerosol burden is large, hence hase the most impact on the cloud microphysics and dynamics. Based on our findings, we formulate a mitigation strategy for these unresolved cloud adjacency effects assuming that some spatial information is available about the structure of the clouds at higher resolution from "context" cameras, as was planned for NASA's ill-fated Glory mission that was to carry the APS but failed to reach orbit. Application to POLDER (POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances) data from the period when PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) was in the A-train is briefly discussed.

APS↗