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At least 415 records · Page 23

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗

Influence of Rigidity–Hydration Coupling on Size-Dependent Diffusion in Hydrated Polymer Membranes

Selective ion transport in polymer membranes depends critically on how penetrant motion couples to polymer dynamics and hydration. Yet, the mechanistic interplay between polymer rigidity, water content, and penetrant size remains poorly understood, especially in the regime where the penetrant diameter, polymer Kuhn length, and correlation length are comparable. Here, we employ coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations to systematically investigate penetrant diffusion in hydrated polymer networks across a broad range of water volume fractions, chain rigidities, and penetrant sizes. The results reveal a transition from a decoupled regime, where small penetrants diffuse nearly independently of polymer relaxation, to a coupled regime in which large penetrants require cooperative polymer motion for transport. Increasing polymer rigidity amplifies the sensitivity of diffusivity to hydration, particularly at low water content, leading to pronounced deviations from Stokes−Einstein scaling. Comparison with scaling theories and free-volume models shows that classical nanoparticle-based frameworks fail to capture this intermediate regime. To address this gap, we extend the Yasuda model to incorporate polymer rigidity through a single parameter that quantifies the dynamic contribution of chain stiffness to free-volume fluctuations. The resulting model collapses diffusivity data across all sizes, water contents, and rigidities, providing a unified description of penetrant transport in hydrated polymer matrices. Furthermore, these findings establish polymer rigidity as a key, tunable determinant of diffusion and offer a framework for interpreting size-dependent transport in ion-selective membranes.

diffusion↗

Correction of Single Frequency Altimeter Measurements for Ionosphere Delay

This study is a preliminary analysis of the accuracy of various ionosphere models to correct single frequency altimeter height measurements for Ionospheric path delay. In particular, research focused on adjusting empirical and parameterized ionosphere models in the parameterized real-time ionospheric specification model (PRISM) 1.2 using total electron content (TEC) data from the global positioning system (GPS). The types of GPS data used to adjust PRISM included GPS line-of-sight (LOS) TEC data mapped to the vertical, and a grid of GPS derived TEC data in a sun-fixed longitude frame. The adjusted PRISM TEC values, as well as predictions by IRI-90, a climatotogical model, were compared to TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) TEC measurements from the dual-frequency altimeter for a number of T/P tracks. When adjusted with GPS LOS data, the PRISM empirical model predicted TEC over 24 1 h data sets for a given local time to with in a global error of 8.60 TECU rms during a midnight centered ionosphere and 9.74 TECU rms during a noon centered ionosphere. Using GPS derived sun-fixed TEC data, the PRISM parameterized model predicted TEC within an error of 8.47 TECU rms centered at midnight and 12.83 TECU rms centered at noon. From these best results, it is clear that the proposed requirement of 3-4 TECU global rms for TOPEX/Poseidon Follow-On will be very difficult to meet, even with a substantial increase in the number of GPS ground stations, with any realizable combination of the aforementioned models or data assimilation schemes.

Schreiner, William S.↗

Open Rotor Noise Shielding by Blended-Wing-Body Aircraft

This paper presents an analysis of open rotor noise shielding by Blended Wing Body (BWB) aircraft by using model scale test data acquired in the Boeing Low Speed Aeroacoustic Facility (LSAF) with a legacy F7/A7 rotor model and a simplified BWB platform. The objective of the analysis is the understanding of the shielding features of the BWB and the method of application of the shielding data for noise studies of BWB aircraft with open rotor propulsion. By studying the directivity patterns of individual tones, it is shown that though the tonal energy distribution and the spectral content of the wind tunnel test model, and thus its total noise, may differ from those of more advanced rotor designs, the individual tones follow directivity patterns that characterize far field radiations of modern open rotors, ensuring the validity of the use of this shielding data. Thus, open rotor tonal noise shielding should be categorized into front rotor tones, aft rotor tones and interaction tones, not only because of the different directivities of the three groups of tones, but also due to the differences in their source locations and coherence features, which make the respective shielding characteristics of the three groups of tones distinctly different from each other. To reveal the parametric trends of the BWB shielding effects, results are presented with variations in frequency, far field emission angle, rotor operational condition, engine installation geometry, and local airframe features. These results prepare the way for the development of parametric models for the shielding effects in prediction tools.

Guo, Yueping↗

Using Robotic Manipulators for Radioactive Waste Inspection - 20090

The global nuclear industry has a growing volume of nuclear waste which needs to be scanned, sorted according to its activity and material type, then processed into the correct waste packages for long term storage and disposal. It is vital that there is a detailed understanding of the waste inventory stored in long term waste containers, as knowledge of their contents could predict or prevent any adverse effects in storage. The numerous 'scan and sort' tables which are currently used at many different facilities around the world to sort waste into their correct containers are human operated and require very slow gamma scanning procedures combined with educated guesswork to manually sort the waste. This often leads to excessive conservatisms, with placement of lower activity wastes in higher activity containers, which in turn costs significantly more to store. In the United Kingdom it costs UK Pounds 46 k per cubic meter to store intermediate level waste compared to just UK Pound 2.9 k per cubic meter to store low level waste according to a 2008 Department of Energy and Climate Change report in the UK. A proposed solution to this problem, is the use of a robotic manipulator to automatically inspect the 'scan and sort table' in order to produce an accurate 3D model of the table's waste contents and attach an overlaid radiation map. The radiation map contains spectrometry data and can in consequence be used to distinguish and locate specific radioisotopes. The 3D model should be as accurate as possible in order to allow for a second robot arm with an attached gripper to grasp the objects and place them into their designated long-term storage container. Various scanning procedures are explored in this study including basic raster scanning, adaptive raster scanning and point sampling. The optimal solution will in practice be defined by the required application and activity level of the wastes being inspected. The results presented in this study indicate that it is possible to produce a centimeter accurate 3D model of a mixed assortment of components on a nuclear waste 'scan and sort' table. In addition, it was shown that the waste objects emitting radiation could be accurately identified and located, with an overlaid radiation map. This study is applicable across the nuclear waste management sector. Many of the ideas and concepts developed in this study are applicable in other decommissioning settings for example, dismantling of legacy gloveboxes or routine inspection of nuclear waste packages in storage. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Leveraging Community and Author Context to Explain the Performance and Bias of Text-Based Deception Detection Models

Deceptive news posts shared in online communities can be detected with NLP models, and much recent research has focused on the development of such models. In this work, we use characteristics of online communities and authors --- the context of how and where content is posted --- to explain the performance of a neural network deception detection model and identify sub-populations who are disproportionately affected by model accuracy or failure. We examine who is posting the content, and where the content is posted to. We find that while author characteristics are better predictors of deceptive content than community characteristics, both characteristics are strongly correlated with model performance. Traditional performance metrics such as F1 score may fail to capture poor model performance on isolated sub-populations such as specific authors, and as such, more nuanced evaluation of deception detection models is critical.

machine learning (ML), machine learning explanatio↗

The oscillatory anisotropy in the spatially flat cosmological models

Highlights: • Relations among asymptotic anisotropy and matter content. • A new scheme for obtaining physically motivated exact solutions. • The process of isotropization/anisotropization in cosmology. • The conversion among the anisotropy and the energy density into one another. In this manuscript, we investigate the oscillatory behaviour of the anisotropy in the diagonal Bianchi-I spacetimes. Our starting point is a simplification of Einstein’s equations using only observable or physical variables. As a consequence, we are able to: (a) Prove general results concerning the existence of oscillations of the anisotropy in the primordial and the late-time universe. For instance, in the expanding scenario, we show that a past weakly mixmaster behaviour (oscillations as we approach the Kasner solutions) might appear even with no violation of the usual energy conditions, while in the future, the pulsation (oscillations around isotropic solutions) seems to be most favoured; (b) Determine a large scheme for deriving classes of physically motivated exact solutions, and we give some (including the general barotropic perfect fluid and the magnetic one); (c) Understand the physical conditions for the occurrence of the isotropization or anisotropization during the cosmological evolution; (d) Understand how anisotropy and energy density are converted one into another. In particular, we call attention to the presence of a residue in the energy density in a late-time isotropic universe coming from its past anisotropic behaviour.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Algebraic expressions for estimating the impact depths of a surface barrier over a homogeneous soil

Engineered surface barriers are used to isolate subsurface contaminants for effective long-term containment of municipal solid waste, other nonhazardous solid and liquid waste, hazardous and toxic wastes, and radioactive waste. The impact depths of a surface barrier are affected by the pre-barrier recharge rate and the properties of the soil beneath the barrier. In this paper, the pore-size-specific (PSS) water velocity is defined and an algebraic expression of PSS velocity is derived based on the stream tube concept and the Brooks and Corey hydraulic retention model. Algebraic expressions are developed to estimate drainage velocities and barrier impact depths after the emplacement of a surface barrier. Four impact depth terms are used to convey the protective effect: drainage front, average drainage, the location with 50% impact, and drainage tail. The drainage front depth is the deepest point at which the barrier has a detectable impact at a specific time (also called the near zero-impact depth). The average-impact depth is the depth at which average drainage occurs. At the 50% impact depth, the water flux rate is reduced by half because of the surface barrier. Lastly, the drainage tail depth (also called the full-impact depth) is the deepest depth at which the water conditions above it are in equilibrium with the barrier. The algebraic expressions show that the average-impact depth is no more than 1/3 of near zero-impact depth, while the 50% impact depth is slightly larger than 1/2 of the near zero-impact depth. The full-impact depth, depending on the final recharge rate from the surface barrier, is usually much smaller than the other impact depths. These differences lead to a very large transition zone beneath a surface barrier. Numerical simulations were conducted to replicate the same conditions. The numerical results corroborated the analytical models by predicting very similar water content profiles and near zero-, average-, 50%, and full-impact depths. The algebraic expressions provided in this paper are useful for quickly identifying sites where the depth of the existing contaminants could be beyond the protection of a surface barrier.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interpreting the spatial distribution of soil properties with a physically-based distributed hydrological model

Digital soil maps are commonly data-driven as the development of physically-based models for soil mapping is difficult due to the complexity of soils. However, physically-based hydrologic models have been successful in simulating water dynamics. Since water movement is a major driver of pedogenesis, the physical rules that govern water movement might help explain and predict the spatial variation of soil properties. Here, we demonstrate the novel use of a physically-based, distributed hydrologic model to inform the spatial distribution of soil properties. The Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was utilized to simulate soil moisture content (SM) and water table depth (WTD) in two hillslope catchments under pasture and forest management wherein hydrologic model outputs were then compared with soil properties measured in situ. SM sensors and wells were installed in both catchments to validate simulations of soil water movement via Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (E). In-situ observations were made at 87 sites within both catchments to study the connection between simulated water movement (SM and WTD) and observed soil properties, namely the depth and thickness of the argillic (Bt), fragic (Btx), and C horizons, and the depth of redoximorphic features. The simulated time series of SM and WTD were also clustered per season using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), which identified similarity among time series at varying timescales. Model validation suggested that simulations of surficial SM (0–20 cm) were reasonable (E = 0.45), however, simulated subsurface SM (45–60 cm) and WTD were not sufficiently accurate. The thickness of Btx horizons were spatially grouped into different populations by SM clusters from every season except spring. For the other properties, only SM dynamics of specific seasons grouped into significantly different populations, suggesting that the explanatory power of simulated water movement varies seasonally and was greater during winter. Here, we show clusters of simulated SM separated soil properties into statistically different populations, showing that hydrologic models could inform areas that followed different water dynamics related to pedogenic trajectories and related biogeochemical processes not necessarily simulated by the model. As such, physically-based modeling of water dynamics can, therefore, inform and advance digital soil mapping by linking water movement patterns stemming from hydrologic model outputs to spatial patterns of soil properties and pedogenesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards AI-assisted neutrino flavor theory design

Particle physics theories, such as those which explain neutrino flavor mixing, arise from a vast landscape of model-building possibilities. A model’s construction typically relies on the intuition of theorists. It also requires considerable effort to identify appropriate symmetry groups, assign field representations, and extract predictions for comparison with experimental data. We develop Autonomous Model Builder (AMBer), a framework in which a reinforcement learning agent interacts with a streamlined physics software pipeline to search these spaces efficiently. AMBer selects symmetry groups, particle content, and group representation assignments to construct models while minimizing the number of free parameters introduced. We validate our approach in well-studied regions of theory space and extend the exploration to a previously unexamined symmetry group. While demonstrated in the context of neutrino flavor theories, this approach of reinforcement learning with physics software feedback may be extended to other theoretical model-building problems in the future.

Baretz, Jason Benjamin↗

Whole planet cooling and the radiogenic heat source contents of the earth and moon

Thermal evolution models based on subsolidus whole mantle convection which indicate that the surface heat flows of the earth and the moon do not necessarily provide good measures of the total amounts of radioactives in these bodies have been constructed. These models assume an initially hot state, but with a wide variety of choices for the parameters characterizing the rheology and convective vigor. All models are constrained to be consistent with present-day surface heat fluxes, and many of the terrestrial models are consistent with the mantle viscosities indicated by postglacial rebound. In the lunar models, heat generation is typically only 70-80% of the surface heat flow, even with allowance for the strong near-surface enhancement of radioactives. Despite the simplicity of these models, the persistence of a significant difference between heat generation and heat output indicates that this difference is real and should be incorporated in geochemical modeling of planets.

Schubert, G.↗

Fresh Water Content Variability in the Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean model simulations have revealed that the Arctic Ocean has a basin wide oscillation with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation anomalies (Arctic Ocean Oscillation; AOO) which has a prominent decadal variability. This study explores how the simulated AOO affects the Arctic Ocean stratification and its relationship to the sea ice cover variations. The simulation uses the Princeton Ocean Model coupled to sea ice. The surface forcing is based on NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and its climatology, of which the latter is used to force the model spin-up phase. Our focus is to investigate the competition between ocean dynamics and ice formation/melt on the Arctic basin-wide fresh water balance. We find that changes in the Atlantic water inflow can explain almost all of the simulated fresh water anomalies in the main Arctic basin. The Atlantic water inflow anomalies are an essential part of AOO, which is the wind driven barotropic response to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The baroclinic response to AO, such as Ekman pumping in the Beaufort Gyre, and ice meldfreeze anomalies in response to AO are less significant considering the whole Arctic fresh water balance.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part II: Modeling Study

Abstract Part I of this series presented a detailed overview of postfrontal mixed-phase clouds observed during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign. In Part II, we focus on a multiday (23–26 February 2018) case with the aim of understanding ice production as well as model sensitivity to ice process parameterizations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The control simulation with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme underestimates the ice content and overestimates the supercooled liquid water content, contrary to the bias common in global climate models. The simulations targeted at ice production processes show negligible sensitivity to cloud droplet number concentrations. Further, neither increasing ice nuclei particle (INP) concentrations to an unrealistic level nor adjusting it to MARCUS field estimations alone guarantees more ice production in the model. However, the simulated clouds are found to be highly sensitive to the implementation of immersion freezing, the thresholding of condensation/deposition freezing initiation, and the rime splintering process. By increasing immersion freezing of cloud droplets, relaxing thresholds for condensation/deposition freezing, or removing rime splintering thresholds, the model significantly improves its performance in producing ice. The relaxation of the immersion freezing temperature threshold to the observed cloud-top temperature suggests an in-cloud seeder–feeder mechanism. The results of this work call for an increase in observations of INP, especially over the remote Southern Ocean and at relatively high temperatures, and measurements of ice particle size distributions to better constrain ice nucleating processes in models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Optimization models for integrated biorefinery operations

Variations of physical and chemical characteristics of biomass lead to an uneven flow of biomass in a biorefinery, which reduces equipment utilization and increases operational costs. Uncertainty of biomass supply and high processing costs increase the risk of investing in the US’s cellulosic biofuel industry. We propose a stochastic programming model to streamline processes within a biorefinery. A chance constraint models system’s reliability requirement that the reactor is operating at a high utilization rate given uncertain biomass moisture content, particle size distribution, and equipment failure. The model identifies operating conditions of equipment and inventory level to maintain a continuous flow of biomass to the reactor. Furthermore, the sample average approximation method approximates the chance constraint and a bisection search-based heuristic solves this approximation. A case study is developed using real-life data collected at Idaho National Laboratory’s biomass processing facility. An extensive computational analysis indicates that sequencing of biomass bales based on moisture level, increasing storage capacity, and managing particle size distribution, increases utilization of the reactor and reduces operational costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Measuring and Modeling of the Dielectric Properties and Attenuation of Vegetation

The dielectric properties and attenuation of vegetation was measured and modeled. The purpose was to: (1) measure the microwave dielectric properties of vegetation material as a function of moisture content and microwave frequency; (2) develop dielectric mixing models for the vegetation-water mixture; (3) develop a model for the loss factor of a vegetation canopy; (4) relate the results of (1) and (2) to (3); and (5) test the model in (3) against direct canopy transmission measurements.

F Ulaby↗

A model of plant canopy polarization response

Sensors to remotely measure the linear polarization of ground scenes have been proposed for the Multispectral Resource Sampler (MRS), a satellite sensor system proposed to complement the Thematic Mapper. At present justification for a sensor on MRS to measure scene polarization is limited. This paper discusses a model for the amount of linearly polarized light reflected by the shiny leaves of such crops as wheat, corn, and sorghum. The theory demonstrates that, potentially, measurements of the linearly polarized light from a crop canopy may be used as an additional feature to discriminate between crops. Examination of the model suggests that, potentially, satellite polarization measurements may be used to monitor crop development stage, leaf water content, leaf area index, hail damage, and certain plant diseases. The model adds to the understanding of the potential information content of scene polarization measurements acquired by future satellite sensor systems such as MRS.

Vanderbilt, V. C.↗

Effects of Convective Ice Lofting on H2O and HDO in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

We have added convective ice lofting to a Lagrangian trajectory model of near-tropopause water vapor (H2O) and its isotopologue HDO. The ice lofting simulation is based on a parameterization derived from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) icewater content measurements. In previous papers, the Lagrangian model has accurately interannual and seasonal H2O abundances; there was no need for convection to be included in the model. We show here that this model does a poor job of simulating near-tropopause HDO, but that the addition of convective ice lofting greatly improves the HDO simulation. Convective ice lofting has a small effect on lower stratospheric H2O. H2O there is set by the minimum temperature encountered at the cold-point tropopause, so H2O added by convection below this level does not make it through this cold point and into the lower stratosphere. Thus, adding convection to the model does not degrade the model's previously demonstrated accurate simulations of H2O. We conclude that the HDO data suggest an important role for convective mass flux into the so-called tropical tropopause layer.

Dessler, A. E.↗

Characteristics of Vertical Ground Motions and Their Effect on the Seismic Response of Bridges in the Near-Field: A State-of-the-Art Review

Despite the evidence from past earthquakes and several numerical investigations demonstrating the detrimental impact of vertical ground motions (VGMs) on the integrity of bridge structures, incorporating their effects into seismic assessment and design procedures has traditionally been given limited consideration. Current codes utilize rather simplistic approaches to account for the concurrent effects of vertical and horizontal motions in structural performance evaluations, potentially leading to unconservative estimates of structural demands. This paper reviews the main features of VGMs and their effect on the seismic response of bridges. The methods and empirical models available to estimate vertical motions for design purposes are discussed, and research gaps and related research needs are identified. Finally, the emerging role of physics-based ground-motion simulations, as well as their limitations, in supporting future research and informing the development of simplified design procedures is examined. The main areas of interest for future research are identified in the need to carry out systematic sensitivity studies to gain insight into the main earthquake parameters that influence key VGMs features, understand the influence of soil nonlinearities on VGMs amplitude and frequency content, inform the development of empirical models that cover a range of site conditions and source-to-site distances where current models are poorly constrained, generate arrays of motions to update coherency models to properly inform the analysis of distributed infrastructure, investigate the impulsive character of VGMs, and assess the approximations made in estimating VGMs with 1D site response analyses. Furthermore, specific focus is laid on large-magnitude earthquakes in the near-field.

Asynchronous ground motion↗