Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population‐based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m 2 ); normal (18.5‐22.9 kg/m 2 ); overweight (23‐24.9 kg/m 2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m 2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02‐1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14‐1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Oze, Isao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Shin, Aesun↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Stage N3 of the Eighth Edition AJCC Staging System for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Objectives To validate stage nodal (N)3 of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods This retrospective cohort study extracted NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2016. Pathologically confirmed patients with complete data of level IV, N3a, and N3b lymph node metastasis were investigated. The included patients were divided into level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Five‐year overall survival (OS) and cancer‐specific survival (CSS) were compared among the three groups. Results A total of 693 patients were included: 285 (41.13%) patients in the level IV group, 124 (17.89%) patients in the N3a group, and 284 (40.98%) patients in the N3b group. The 5‐year OS (57.1%, 55.0%, and 55.2%) and CSS (64.4%, 63.5%, and 64.4%) were not different among the level IV, N3a, and N3b groups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N stage was not an independent prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91–1.17; P = .65) or CSS (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89–1.19; P = .70). Conclusion Stage N3 of the 8th edition AJCC staging system for NPC is reasonable. Level of Evidence III Laryngoscope , 131:535–540, 2021

Pan, Xin‐Bin↗
DOE OSTI2022

A mathematical assessment of the isolation random forest method for anomaly detection in big data

We present the mathematical analysis of the Isolation Random Forest Method (IRF Method) for anomaly detection, proposed by Liu F.T., Ting K.M. and Zhou Z. H. in their seminal work as a heuristic method for anomaly detection in Big Data. We prove that the IRF space can be endowed with a probability induced by the Isolation Tree algorithm (iTree). In this setting, the convergence of the IRF method is proved, using the Law of Large Numbers. Here, a couple of counterexamples are presented to show that the method is inconclusive and no certificate of quality can be given, when using it as a means to detect anomalies. Hence, an alternative version of the method is proposed whose mathematical foundation is fully justified. Furthermore, a criterion for choosing the number of sampled trees needed to guarantee confidence intervals of the numerical results is presented. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to compare the performance of the classic method with the proposed one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of radiochromic gel dosimetry to commissioning of a megavoltage research linear accelerator for small–field animal irradiation studies

To develop and implement an efficient and accurate commissioning procedure for small-field static beam animal irradiation studies on an MV research linear accelerator (Linatron-M9) using radiochromic gel dosimetry. The research linear accelerator (Linatron-M9) is a 9 MV linac with a static fixed collimator opening of 5.08 cm diameter. Lead collimators were manually placed to create smaller fields of 2 × 2 cm 2 , 1 × 1 cm 2 , and 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 . Relative dosimetry measurements were performed, including profiles, percent depth dose (PDD) curves, beam divergence, and relative output factors using various dosimetry tools, including a small volume ionization chamber (A14), GAFCHROMIC™ EBT3 film, and Clearview gel dosimeters. The gel dosimeter was used to provide a 3D volumetric reference of the irradiated fields. The Linatron profiles and relative output factors were extracted at a reference depth of 2 cm with the output factor measured relative to the 2 × 2 cm 2 reference field. Absolute dosimetry was performed using A14 ionization chamber measurements, which were verified using a national standards laboratory remote dosimetry service. Absolute dosimetry measurements were confirmed within 1.4% (k = 2, 95% confidence = 5%). The relative output factor of the small fields measured with films and gels agreed with a maximum relative percent error difference between the two methods of 1.1 % for the 1 × 1 cm 2 field and 4.3 % for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 field. These relative errors were primarily due to the variability in the collimator positioning. The measured beam profiles demonstrated excellent agreement for beam size (measured as FWHM), within approximately 0.8 mm (or less). Film measurements were more accurate in the penumbra region due to the film’s finer resolution compared with the gel dosimeter. Following the van Dyk criteria, the PDD values of the film and gel measurements agree within 11% in the buildup region starting from 0.5 cm depth and within 2.6 % beyond maximum dose and into the fall-off region for depths up to 5 cm. The 2D beam profile isodose lines agree within 0.5 mm in all regions for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 and the 1 × 1 cm 2 fields and within 1 mm for the larger field of 2 × 2 cm 2 . The 2D PDD curves agree within approximately 2% of the maximum in the typical therapy region (1–4 cm) for the 1 × 1 cm 2 and 2 × 2 cm 2 and within 5% for the 0.5 × 0.5 cm 2 field. This work provides a commissioning process to measure the beam characteristics of a fixed beam MV accelerator with detailed dosimetric evaluation for its implementation in megavoltage small animal irradiation studies. Radiochromic gel dosimeters are efficient small-field relative dosimetry tools providing 3D dose measurements allowing for full representation of dose, dosimeter misalignment corrections and high reproducibility with low inter-dosimeter variability. Altogether, radiochromic gels are valuable for fast, full relative dosimetry commissioning in comparison to films for application in high-energy small-field animal irradiation studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Population Dynamics and Temporal Trends of Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho

Abstract Because of their long-term listing under the Endangered Species Act, much interest has been placed on estimating population vital rates for Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus, but the biotic and abiotic factors that influence the interannual variability in those vital rates have rarely been evaluated. We used mark–recapture data to estimate fish growth, survival, and trends in abundance for fluvial adult Bull Trout in the East Fork Salmon River, Idaho. Over an 8-year period, a total of 1,205 individual Bull Trout were collected at a weir on the East Fork Salmon River (29 km upstream of its confluence with the Salmon River) during June–September, of which 420 were recaptures from prior years. Bull Trout varied in length from 215 to 756 mm and achieved a slightly larger asymptotic length and a slightly lower rate of growth relative to other fluvial and adfluvial Bull Trout populations. Apparent survival averaged 0.42 across all years, which was similar to previous studies estimating apparent survival for Bull Trout. The number of emigrating anadromous salmonid smolts in the upper Salmon River basin positively influenced East Fork Salmon River Bull Trout growth and survival, and survival was higher in years with lower annual discharge. Assessment of population growth via linear regression analysis indicated that the Bull Trout population was increasing during the study period (λ = 1.08; 95% confidence interval = 1.03–1.14). Our findings highlight the ecological link between the abundance of wild and hatchery Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Sockeye Salmon O. nerka, and steelhead O. mykiss smolts and growth and survival of adult Bull Trout in systems where these species occur in sympatry.

Roth, Curtis J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Scale-Derived Ages in Wild Juvenile and Adult Steelhead Using Parental-Based Tagging

Abstract Accurate age information is a critical component in fisheries monitoring, management, and research. The ability to assign accurate ages to fish by using nonlethal structures is vital in calculating cohort productivity for fish species with low abundances and variable life histories. A common nonlethal method to assign ages is by interpretation of patterns in scales. Validation of ages is not easily obtained for free-ranging fishes; however, the development of genetic “tags” has expanded age validation opportunities. In this study, we used parental-based genetic tagging to validate ages determined from scales collected from juvenile and adult steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in two streams within the Snake River basin. Juvenile scale ages were in agreement with 93% of the known ages. Adult scale ages were in agreement with 89% of the known ages. Although overall bias in juvenile ages was very low, we saw a slight positive bias in younger fish (young of the year and age 1) and a small negative bias in older juveniles (ages 2–4). A small negative bias in ages of adults was a consequence of errors in freshwater age. The errors observed did not significantly bias age compositions because the 90% confidence intervals about the age proportions based on scales contained the known proportions; therefore, scale analysis is an acceptable method for assigning ages to Snake River steelhead. We discuss the value of validated known-age scales as a reference collection, and as an illustrative use, we constructed a circulus count guide to aid technicians in identifying missing annuli and distinguishing true from false annuli. To demonstrate the use of the circulus guidelines, we reanalyzed samples with age discrepancies, applying the circulus count data and the known age to identify mistakes.

Reinhardt, Leslie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical suppression of invasive Northern Pike in Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington

Abstract Objective Northern Pike Esox lucius recently invaded Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington, expanding to over 10,000 individuals by 2011. To limit further impacts, a significant reduction in population abundance was required. Project objectives were to reduce relative abundance (catch per unit effort [CPUE]) to less than 1.7 Northern Pike/net (87% reduction) in the core area and to less than 0.5 Northern Pike/net in the northern reservoir section within 3 years and then maintain those abundance targets thereafter. Methods Using gill nets, we conducted intensive annual (2012–2018) suppression each spring, focusing on spawning aggregations in shallow (<2-m), flooded habitats. To evaluate CPUE, a standardized spring pike index netting (SPIN) survey was conducted annually in May and compared to suppression netting CPUE. Result In total, 17,464 Northern Pike were removed in 4868 net sets, with 92.9% captured in the first 3 years, limiting future recruitment. Mean SPIN CPUE in the core area declined from a presuppression (2011) high of 13.2 Northern Pike/net to less than 1.0 Northern Pike/net by 2014. Effort was reduced by up to 80% as the project transitioned from the initial suppression phase (2012–2014) to a control phase (2015–2018), which explored the minimum effort required to maintain abundance targets. A significant rebound in CPUE occurred from 2017 to 2018, indicating that over 267 net sets annually may be required for long-term control. Although the mean CPUE (±95% confidence interval) increased slightly in 2018 (0.6 ± 0.5 Northern Pike/net), the target abundance in the core area was achieved annually from 2013 to 2018. Changes in suppression CPUE reflected those observed in SPIN surveys, further validating the survey and corroborating abundance trends. Conclusion Results demonstrate that the suppression of Northern Pike in large, complex waters is feasible but requires a substantial long-term commitment. We expect the suppression of this invasive species to become standard practice outside of its native range. The methodology and equipment described here could be applied directly or modified by others to suppress Northern Pike.

Bean, Nicholas J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating posterior quantity of interest expectations in a multilevel scalable framework

Scalable approaches for uncertainty quantification are necessary for characterizing prediction confidence in large-scale subsurface flow simulations with uncertain permeability. To this end we explore a multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating posterior moments of a particular quantity of interest, where we employ an element-agglomerated algebraic multigrid (AMG) technique to generate the hierarchy of coarse spaces with guaranteed approximation properties for both the generation of spatially correlated random fields and the forward simulation of Darcy's law to model subsurface flow. In both these components (sampling and forward solves), we exploit solvers that rely on state-of-the-art scalable AMG. To illustrate the applicability of this approach, numerical tests are performed on two 3D examples-a unit cube and an egg-shaped domain with an irregular boundary-where the scalability of each simulation as well as the scalability of the overall algorithm are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Target–decoy false discovery rate estimation using Crema

Assigning statistical confidence estimates to discoveries produced by a tandem mass spectrometry proteomics experiment is critical to enabling principled interpretation of the results and assessing the cost/benefit ratio of experimental follow-up. The most common technique for computing such estimates is to use target-decoy competition (TDC), in which observed spectra are searched against a database of real (target) peptides and a database of shuffled or reversed (decoy) peptides. TDC procedures for estimating the false discovery rate (FDR) at a given score threshold have been developed for application at the level of spectra, peptides, or proteins. Although these techniques are relatively straightforward to implement, it is common in the literature to skip over the implementation details or even to make mistakes in how the TDC procedures are applied in practice. Here we present Crema, an open-source Python tool that implements several TDC methods of spectrum-, peptide- and protein-level FDR estimation. Crema is compatible with a variety of existing database search tools and provides a straightforward way to obtain robust FDR estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Getting allometry right at the Oak Ridge free‐air CO 2 enrichment experiment: Old problems and new opportunities for global change experiments

Societal Impact Statement Free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiments provide essential data on forest responses to increasing atmospheric CO 2 for evaluations of climate change impacts on humanity. Understanding and reducing the uncertainty in the experimental results is critical to ensure scientific and public confidence in the models and policy initiatives that derive therefrom. One source of uncertainty is the estimation of tree biomass using mathematical relationships between biomass and easily obtained and non‐destructive measurements (allometry). We evaluated the robustness of the allometric relationships established at the beginning of a FACE experiment and discuss the challenges and opportunities for the new generation of FACE experiments. Summary Long‐term field experiments to elucidate forest responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration require allometric equations to estimate tree biomass from non‐destructive measurements of tree size. We analyzed whether the allometric equations established at the beginning of a free‐air CO 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in a Liquidambar styraciflua plantation were still valid at the end of the 12 year experiment. Aboveground woody biomass was initially predicted by an equation that included bole diameter, taper, and height, assuming that including taper and height as predictors would accommodate changes in tree structure that might occur over time and in response to elevated CO 2 . At the conclusion of the FACE experiment, we harvested 23 trees, measured dimensions and dry mass of boles and branches, and extracted and measured the woody root mass of 10 trees. Although 10 of the harvested trees were larger than the trees used to establish the allometric relationship, measured aboveground woody biomass was well predicted by the original allometry. The initial linear equation between bole basal area and woody root biomass underestimated final root biomass by 28%, but root biomass was just 21% of total wood mass, and errors in aboveground and belowground estimates were offsetting. The allometry established at the beginning of the experiment provided valid predictions of tree biomass throughout the experiment. New allometric approaches using terrestrial laser scanning should reduce an important source of uncertainty in decade‐long forest experiments and in assessments of centuries‐long forest biomass accretion used in evaluating carbon offsets and climate mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extinction Imaging Diagnostics for In Situ Quantification of Soot within Explosively Generated Fireballs

Fireballs produced from the detonation of high explosives often contain particulates primarily composed of various phases of carbon soot. The transport and concentration of these particulates is of interest for model validation and emission characterization. Here, this work proposes ultra-high-speed imaging techniques to observe a fireball's structure and optical depth. An extinction-based diagnostic applied at two wavelengths indicates that extinction scales inversely with wavelength, consistent with particles in the Rayleigh limit and dimensionless extinction coefficients which are independent of wavelength. Within current confidence bounds, the extinction-derived soot mass concentrations agree with expectations based upon literature reported soot yields. Results also identify areas of high uncertainty where additional work is recommended.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sources of error in detonation calorimeters and error analysis for neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB)

Here, a calorimeter for measuring heats of detonation at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is described. A calibration precision of 0.2 % at the 95 % confidence interval (CI) is reported. Sources of uncertainty are discussed, including nonequivalent sources, which are those arising from differences between calibration and experimental tests. The systematic error due to nonequivalent sources is bounded to 0.19–0.22 % of the measured heat for a standard detonation test where the confinement material is gold. The recommendation is to correct for the systematic error by adding 0.19 % to the reported value and adding 0.03 % to the uncertainty. It is demonstrated that the precision of a detonation test is variable with testing duration because a source of uncertainty resides in the thermodynamic correction factor k6, which accounts for the contribution to heat by stirring; the generated power is additive and therefore highly impacted by total test time. The relative proportion also varies with the magnitude of heat release and sample size, adding variance to the weight of the error arising from the correction factor. A full error analysis based on the described sources of uncertainty is developed. The methodology is applied to a test series on neat 2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5- trinitrobenzene (TATB), demonstrating an ultimate precision of 0.7 % (single test) for materials testing and a relative standard deviation of 1.8 %.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Protein–Protein and Protein–Ligand Interactions by the ClusPro Team in CASP16

ABSTRACT In the CASP16 experiment, our team employed hybrid computational strategies to predict both protein–protein and protein–ligand complex structures. For protein–protein docking, we combined physics‐based sampling—using ClusPro FFT docking and molecular dynamics—with AlphaFold (AF)‐based sampling, followed by AF‐based refinement. Our method produced numerous high‐accuracy complex models, including cases where AF alone failed, underscoring the critical role of physics‐based sampling alongside deep learning‐based refinement. For protein–ligand docking, we integrated the ClusPro LigTBM template‐based approach with a machine learning‐based confidence model for rescoring. The method preserves conserved interaction fragments derived from homologous complexes, followed by local resampling using physics‐based sampling and a diffusion model. Our template‐based strategy achieved a mean lDDT‐PLI of 0.69 across 233 targets, which was highly competitive. These results demonstrate that combining physics‐based modeling with AI‐driven refinement can significantly enhance the accuracy of both protein–protein and protein–ligand structure predictions.

Ashizawa, Ryota [Department of Applied Mathematics↗