Results for “Computer model” — Page 23

DOE OSTI2025

High-Speed and High-Quality Field Welding Repair Based on Advanced Non-Destructive Evaluation and Numerical Modeling

Creep strength-enhanced ferritic (CSEF) steels such as Grade 91 (9Cr-1Mo-V) and Grade 92 (Fe-9Cr-2W-0.5Mo) steels are widely used in the fossil-fuel-fired and nuclear power plants. The weld integrity of these steels is crucial for power plants' safe and reliable operations. Due to harsh service conditions, the steel weld can become susceptible to environmental degradation. Field welding repair is used to restore the degraded weld’s performance where a controlled temper-bead welding technique is commonly used to temper the freshly formed martensite during welding. However, knowledge of weld repairability is limited and experimental trial and error optimization to achieve desired microstructure and joint properties is expensive and time-consuming. Many existing computational models, e.g., finite element models, are limited to solving heat conduction equation and ignoring convective heat transfer due to molten metal flow. These models can result in over-prediction of peak temperatures of weld pool and heat-affected zone (HAZ), which in turn can affect the accuracy of tempering prediction. Moreover, these finite element models require an input of the deposit profiles in advance and thus limits the usability of these models. Here, a molten pool-based, multi-pass multi-layer model has been developed based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach with the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method. The model calculates the bead formation, thereby eliminating the need for pre-determined bead profiles required by finite element models. For computational efficiency, a coordinate system attached to the moving heat source is utilized. A subroutine is developed to convert the temperature profiles in the reference frame stationary to the heat source to that stationary to the workpiece. The converted thermal cycles are then imported into a microstructure model to compute the tempering kinetics and resultant hardness using a Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), and modified Grange-Baughman parameter. The modeling approach is first developed and validated on single- and multi-pass deposition of stainless steel filler metal onto a SA-533 high strength steel substrate. The models are then applied to a multi-pass V-groove repair weld of Grade 91 steel plate as well as directed energy deposition of Grade 92 steel. Non-destructive characterization of microstructures was performed on Grade 91 and 92 steel welds. Two welding processes, cold metal transfer (CMT) and flux-cored arc welding (FCAW), were investigated for the Grade 91 steel weld samples. For the Grade 92 weld samples, three different heat inputs (low, medium, and high) of gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) were utilized to replicate traditional field welding processes. The non-destructive evaluation (NDE) method used for this research was immersion ultrasonic testing (UT) using a micro-resolution ultrasonic imaging methodology specifically designed to operate in the through-transmission configuration operating at 20 MHz of frequency. The system used a focused ultrasonic beam spot size diameter between 250-300 μm, and a 6 μm laser vibrometer spot size for detection, to produce highly defined images with longitudinal and mode-converted shear waves. From the micro-resolution ultrasonic C-scan images, three microstructural regions, i.e., weld metal (WM), HAZ, and base metal (BM), were clearly identifiable. Various levels of ultrasonic amplitudes distributed over the three regions were correlated with electron beam backscattered diffraction (EBSD) images using grain size, grain boundaries, and dislocation densities. The results showed that areas with relatively higher ultrasonic amplitude levels were associated with smaller grains and higher dislocation densities, while areas with lower amplitude levels were associated with larger grains and lower dislocation densities. In addition, ultrasonic velocity data obtained across the three different weld microstructural regions of Grade 91 test samples were correlated with optical metallographic images and hardness measurements. The results showed distinctive decreases in ultrasonic velocity and hardness over the HAZ region, where weld failures often occur during service.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of recent activities with MOOSE, an open-source finite element & finite volume multi-fidelity simulation framework

Modeling and simulation are an increasing part of engineering. This is undoubtedly driven by the high costs of constructing experimental facilities, but also enabled by the exponential increase in computing powers over the last decades, which allows computational models to be closer than ever to reality. One of the main drivers for the development of MOOSE is supporting advanced nuclear reactor simulations. A challenging aspect of modeling advanced nuclear reactors is the plurality of physics involved, including neutronics, thermal hydraulics and fuel performance. These physics are all coupled to some extent and are generally solved in a sequential but iterative fashion. The United States (U.S.) national laboratories have been developing MOOSE, an open source multiphysics framework since its inception at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2008. This framework enables seamless coupling of multiphysics simulations and facilitates the implementation of new physics and material governing laws. It is continuously expanded with novel numerical methods and new pre-implemented physics module. Numerous applications, developed within the Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories, academia, and industry, including outside of nuclear engineering, have been developed to study specialized physics problems. International collaborations are welcome on this open-source modeling and simulation project.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME and In-Situ Process Monitoring for Rapid Qualification of Components Made by Laser-based Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Structural Applications

Additive manufacturing (AM) through selective powder bed melting of successive layers is being considered as disruptive technology for rapid production of low-cost nuclear reactor internal components with complex geometries. However, there is a potential for non-uniform distribution of physical features, such as porosity or microstructural differences, due to variations of temperature across a component build. These heterogeneities make the deployment of traditional material qualification and non-destructive evaluation of AM components difficult. This research project explored the feasibility of using in-situ process monitoring methods and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) principles as an alternate qualification methodology and approach. This project included six individual tasks: (i) design of artifacts relevant to the nuclear power industry, (ii) evaluation of laser processing and in-situ measurements, (iii) computational modeling, (iv) ex-situ microstructural characterization, (v) evaluation of scaling the methodology for large-scale structures, and (vi) development of a data package to codes and standards organizations. As a part of this research, laser powder bed fusion of metals (316L, Alloy 718, and Ti6Al4V) was explored. This document provides an overview of the research performed over three years and serves as the final U.S. Department of Energy report for this project. In the third year, the project focused on the following activities: (a) in-situ infrared and optical imaging of each layer during processing of representative stainless steel geometries; (b) development of methodologies to analyze the data; and (c) application of ICME methodologies and other experiments to estimate the relevance of defects and microstructure to tensile properties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME and In-Situ Process Monitoring for Rapid Qualification of Components Made by Laser-based Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Structural Applications

Additive manufacturing (AM) through selective powder bed melting of successive layers is being considered as disruptive technology for rapid production of low-cost nuclear reactor internal components with complex geometries. However, there is a potential for non-uniform distribution of physical features, such as porosity or microstructural differences, due to variations of temperature across a component build. These heterogeneities make the deployment of traditional material qualification and non-destructive evaluation of AM components difficult. This research project explored the feasibility of using in-situ process monitoring methods and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) principles as an alternate qualification methodology and approach. This project included six individual tasks: (i) design of artifacts relevant to the nuclear power industry, (ii) evaluation of laser processing and in-situ measurements, (iii) computational modeling, (iv) ex-situ microstructural characterization, (v) evaluation of scaling the methodology for large-scale structures, and (vi) development of a data package to codes and standards organizations. As a part of this research, laser powder bed fusion of metals (316L, Alloy 718, and Ti6Al4V) was explored. This document provides an overview of the research performed over three years and serves as the final U.S. Department of Energy report for this project. In the third year, the project focused on the following activities: (a) in-situ infrared and optical imaging of each layer during processing of representative stainless steel geometries; (b) development of methodologies to analyze the data; and (c) application of ICME methodologies and other experiments to estimate the relevance of defects and microstructure to tensile properties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME and In-Situ Process Monitoring for Rapid Qualification of Components Made by Laser-based Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Structural Applications

Additive manufacturing (AM) through selective powder bed melting of successive layers is being considered as disruptive technology for rapid production of low-cost nuclear reactor internal components with complex geometries. However, there is a potential for non-uniform distribution of physical features, such as porosity or microstructural differences, due to variations of temperature across a component build. These heterogeneities make the deployment of traditional material qualification and non-destructive evaluation of AM components difficult. This research project explored the feasibility of using in-situ process monitoring methods and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) principles as an alternate qualification methodology and approach. This project included six individual tasks: (i) design of artifacts relevant to the nuclear power industry, (ii) evaluation of laser processing and in-situ measurements, (iii) computational modeling, (iv) ex-situ microstructural characterization, (v) evaluation of scaling the methodology for large-scale structures, and (vi) development of a data package to codes and standards organizations. As a part of this research, laser powder bed fusion of metals (316L, Alloy 718, and Ti6Al4V) was explored. This document provides an overview of the research performed over three years and serves as the final U.S. Department of Energy report for this project. In the third year, the project focused on the following activities: (a) in-situ infrared and optical imaging of each layer during processing of representative stainless steel geometries; (b) development of methodologies to analyze the data; and (c) application of ICME methodologies and other experiments to estimate the relevance of defects and microstructure to tensile properties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME and In-Situ Process Monitoring for Rapid Qualification of Components Made by Laser-based Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Structural Applications

Additive manufacturing (AM) through selective powder bed melting of successive layers is being considered as disruptive technology for rapid production of low-cost nuclear reactor internal components with complex geometries. However, there is a potential for non-uniform distribution of physical features, such as porosity or microstructural differences, due to variations of temperature across a component build. These heterogenities make the deployment of traditional material qualification and non-destructive evaluation of AM components difficult. This research project explored the feasibility of using in-situ process monitoring methods and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) principles as an alternate qualification methodology and approach. This project included six individual tasks: (i) design of artifacts relevant to the nuclear power industry, (ii) evaluation of laser processing and in-situ measurements, (iii) computational modeling, (iv) ex-situ microstructural characterization, (v) evaluation of scaling the methodology for large-scale structures, and (vi) development of a data package to codes and standards organizations. As a part of this research, laser powder bed fusion of metals (316L, Alloy 718, and Ti6Al4V) was explored. This document provides an overview of the research performed over three years and serves as the final U.S. Department of Energy report for this project. In the third year, the project focused on the following activities: (a) in-situ infrared and optical imaging of each layer during processing of representative stainless steel geometries; (b) development of methodologies to analyze the data; and (c) application of ICME methodologies and other experiments to estimate the relevance of defects and microstructure to tensile properties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

ICME and In-Situ Process Monitoring for Rapid Qualification of Components Made by Laser-based Powder Bed Additive Manufacturing Processes for Nuclear Structural Applications

Additive manufacturing (AM) through selective powder bed melting of successive layers is being considered as disruptive technology for rapid production of low-cost nuclear reactor internal components with complex geometries. However, there is a potential for non-uniform distribution of physical features, such as porosity or microstructural differences, due to variations of temperature across a component build. These heterogenities make the deployment of traditional material qualification and non-destructive evaluation of AM components difficult. This research project explored the feasibility of using in-situ process monitoring methods and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) principles as an alternate qualification methodology and approach. This project included six individual tasks: (i) design of artifacts relevant to the nuclear power industry, (ii) evaluation of laser processing and in-situ measurements, (iii) computational modeling, (iv) ex-situ microstructural characterization, (v) evaluation of scaling the methodology for large-scale structures, and (vi) development of a data package to codes and standards organizations. As a part of this research, laser powder bed fusion of metals (316L, Alloy 718, and Ti6Al4V) was explored. This document provides an overview of the research performed over three years and serves as the final U.S. Department of Energy report for this project. In the third year, the project focused on the following activities: (a) in-situ infrared and optical imaging of each layer during processing of representative stainless steel geometries; (b) development of methodologies to analyze the data; and (c) application of ICME methodologies and other experiments to estimate the relevance of defects and microstructure to tensile properties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Innovative Energy Solutions Using Combustion Simulations

Combustion-based transportation, electricity generation, and industrial heating in manufacturing constitute the three largest sectors of energy demand. Some of the recent technology development in these sectors are: switching to low-carbon fuels for the transportation sector, increasing energy efficiency in the power sector, and capturing carbon emissions from conventional power generators. Several teams at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have been actively advancing research in these areas by leveraging computational modeling of combustion processes across the heavy-duty land based transportation, aviation, and power generation sectors. This article summarizes some of these efforts, demonstrating the potential of advanced computational techniques to generate technological solutions that will transform the global energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanisms and models of the turbulent boundary layers at transcritical conditions

Computational models for high-pressure transcritical turbulence in wall-modeled large-eddy simulation typically rely on wall-function models to overcome the need for resolving the boundary layer structures. However, the mechanisms and models of turbulent boundary layer at transcritical conditions remain poorly understood since the near-wall flow and heat transfer are significantly affected by the enhanced fluctuations and steep gradients in thermodynamic properties. Here, to address this issue, we study the mechanisms of transcritical turbulent boundary layers and wall-attached models at transcritical conditions. It is shown that the real-fluid variable-property effects are associated with the coupling between the near-wall cycle and the wall-normal coherent motions in the outer layer, resulting in the amplification of turbulent energy in the outer layer and noticeable energy transfer between the log-layer and the outer layer; hence, turbulence in the log-layer is modulated by the outer layer. Based on this underlying physical principle, we propose the characteristic velocity and length scales for the attached eddy at transcritical conditions, and extend the attached eddy model to transcritical turbulent boundary layers by introducing a mixed scaling that incorporates both inner and outer scalings. We show that the new characteristic scales and extended attached-eddy model perform well in characterizing the structures in transcritical turbulent boundary layers.

Li, Fangbo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Los Alamos National Laboratory R&D Intern

This report details the responsibilities, outcomes, and project details of a summer R&D internship at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). LANL is a multidisciplinary laboratory that focuses on current cutting-edge research in many fields such as national security, engineering, materials science, computational modeling, and advanced manufacturing. The goal of the internship project was to work with lab engineers and resources to develop an energy absorbing structure for high-velocity impact applications. The successful development of this technology and methodology would not only positively impact future project funding but also contribute to the laboratory's commitment to solve national security challenges through simultaneous excellence. Such devices would also support efforts surrounding the research and development of energy absorbing structures and would provide new vital information backed by experimentation. Different computational and modeling methods were used to design these structures, in addition to qualitative background information provided by past literature. The resultant designs were successfully tested, and the test results were successfully quantified. From these results, new computational methods were developed through python programming and modeling to predict ideal materialistic properties for these structures given a sufficiently defined application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

The “good,” the “bad,” and the “hidden” in neutron scattering and molecular dynamics of ionic aqueous solutions

We characterize a concentrated 7.3 m CaCl 2 solution, combining neutron diffraction with chloride isotopic substitution (Cl-NDIS) in null water and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We elucidate the solution structure, thermodynamic properties, and extent of ion pairing previously suggested as concentration-dependent and often not observed at lower concentrations. Our Cl-NDIS measurements designate the solvent-shared ion pairing as dominant and the contact ion pairing (CIP) as insignificant even under conditions close to the solubility limit. The MD models parameterized against neutron diffraction with calcium isotopic substitution (Ca-NDIS) overestimate CIP despite successfully reproducing most of the Cl-NDIS signal. This drawback originates from the fact that Ca 2+ –Cl - interactions were primarily “hidden” in the Ca-NDIS signal due to overlapping with Ca 2+ –O w and Ca 2+ –H w contributions to the total scattering. Contrary, MD models with moderate CIP and possessing generally good performance at high concentrations fail to reproduce the NDIS measurements accurately. Therefore, the electronic polarization, introduced in most of the recent MD models via scaling ionic charges, resolves some but not all parameterization drawbacks. We conclude that despite improving the quality of MD models “on average,” the question “which model is the best” has not been answered but replaced by the question “which model is better for a given research.” An overall “good” model can still be inappropriate or, in some instances, “bad” and, unfortunately, produce erroneous results. Additionally, the accurate interpretation of several NDIS datasets, complemented by MD simulations, can prevent such mistakes and help identify the strengths, weaknesses, and convenient applications for corresponding computational models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational study of inertial migration of prolate particles in a straight rectangular channel

Inertial migration of spherical particles has been investigated extensively using experiments, theory, and computational modeling. Yet, a systematic investigation of the effect of particle shape on inertial migration is still lacking. Herein, we numerically mapped the migration dynamics of a prolate particle in a straight rectangular microchannel using smoothed particle hydrodynamics at moderate Reynolds number flows. After validation, we applied our model to 2:1 and 3:1 shape aspect ratio particles at multiple confinement ratios. Their effects on the final focusing position, rotational behavior, and transitional dynamics were studied. In addition to the commonly reported tumbling motion, for the first time, we identified a new logrolling behavior of a prolate ellipsoidal particle in the confined channel. This new behavior occurs when the confinement ratio is above an approximate threshold value of K = 0.72. Our microfluidic experiments using cell aggregates with similar shape aspect ratio and confinement ratio confirmed this new predicted logrolling motion. In this study, we also found that the same particle can undergo different rotational modes, including kayaking behavior, depending on its initial cross-sectional position and orientation. Furthermore, we examined the migration speed, angular velocity, and rotation period as well as their dependence on both particle shape aspect ratio and confinement ratio. Our findings are especially relevant to the applications where particle shape and alignment are used for sorting and analysis, such as the use of barcoded particles for biochemical assays through optical reading, or the shape-based enrichment of microalgae, bacteria, and chromosomes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aerodynamic Analysis of Wind Loading on Parabolic Trough Collectors Using High-Fidelity CFD Modeling

Wind loading on parabolic solar collector support structures is the key driver for material costs. As identified by NREL's CSP Best Practices project [1], ability to predict wind-loading in deep-arrays and the impact of edge effects has potential to decrease levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) by 15%. In this study, we present a high-fidelity computational model that can model the flow around deep arrays of parabolic troughs under varying turbulent inflow conditions. Ability to accurately reproduce atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) profiles is first demonstrated through Large Eddy Simulation (LES) simulations and compared against wind tunnel measurements. Thereafter, unsteady turbulent flow past single row and six row configurations is computed using hybrid RANS/LES simulations. Investigations of wind loading, through parametric tilt angle variations of single row and on waked collectors in six-row configuration, are used to highlight design considerations for parabolic troughs only possible through high-fidelity unsteady calculations.

aerodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-fidelity information fusion with concatenated neural networks

Recently, computational modeling has shifted towards the use of statistical inference, deep learning, and other data-driven modeling frameworks. Although this shift in modeling holds promise in many applications like design optimization and real-time control by lowering the computational burden, training deep learning models needs a huge amount of data. This big data is not always available for scientific problems and leads to poorly generalizable data-driven models. This gap can be furnished by leveraging information from physics-based models. Exploiting prior knowledge about the problem at hand, this study puts forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) approach to build more tailored, effective, and efficient surrogate models. For our analysis, without losing its generalizability and modularity, we focus on the development of predictive models for laminar and turbulent boundary layer flows. In particular, we combine the self-similarity solution and power-law velocity profile (low-fidelity models) with the noisy data obtained either from experiments or computational fluid dynamics simulations (high-fidelity models) through a concatenated neural network. We illustrate how the knowledge from these simplified models results in reducing uncertainties associated with deep learning models applied to boundary layer flow prediction problems. The proposed multi-fidelity information fusion framework produces physically consistent models that attempt to achieve better generalization than data-driven models obtained purely based on data. While we demonstrate our framework for a problem relevant to fluid mechanics, its workflow and principles can be adopted for many scientific problems where empirical, analytical, or simplified models are prevalent. In line with grand demands in novel PGML principles, this work builds a bridge between extensive physics-based theories and data-driven modeling paradigms and paves the way for using hybrid physics and machine learning modeling approaches for next-generation digital twin technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nonequilibrium Physics of Multiphase Flow in Porous Media: Wettability and Disorder

Carbon capture and geologic storage, dissociation of methane hydrates in permafrost, enhanced oil recovery, and water dropout in low-temperature fuel cells, all have something in common: two or more fluids flow simultaneously through a porous medium; and the displacement of one fluid by another is often unstable (either due to gravity or viscous forces). Yet, our ability to model multiphase flow in porous media has remained a challenge. The traditional equations are unable to predict, explain, or even reproduce, the formation of the complex patterns observed in experiments. The overarching goal of the project is to develop new physical understanding of the role of wettability and disorder in multiphase flow through permeable media, and to develop new mathematical and computational models at the pore scale and at the continuum scale.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Modeling and Diagnostic Monitoring of Extreme Science Workflows (Final Report)

This proposal addresses a critical issue of performance prediction identified in the report from the ASCR \Computational Modeling of Big Networks (COMBINE)" workshop: "end-to-end performance is not predictable due to a variety of factors. Even when some performance forecasts or predictions can be made, they often cannot explain the reasons why some predictions fail." We will develop new analytical models to predict the end-to-end performance of scientific workflows on DOE computing infrastructures, and use simulations and experimentation to validate and refine these models, as well as to pinpoint the sources of model inaccuracy. We will also use these models to help diagnose application and infrastructure problems, and to adapt the system based on this diagnosis. This section provides background in the areas relevant to the proposed work. RPI’s specific tasks within the Panorama project are as follows: (1) Develop Aspen-Simulation interface for Workflow Model Driven Simulation. (2) Validate manual performance models of two target workflow scenarios with empirical measurement and simulation. (3) Extend ROSS-Aspen API to simulate workflow descriptions when required. (4) Validate Aspen performance models of two target workflow scenarios with automatic performance model empirical measurement and simulation. (5) Design and implement final system to automatically generate Aspen performance models from workflow descriptions (including methods to compensate for limitations of Aspen analytical models). (6) Validate improved Aspen performance models with target workflow on production infrastructure. To date, all the project milestones assigned to us where reached within the best of our abilities over the course of the project performance period. Below describes the key outcome from our collaborative research in a system named, Durango .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive Generation of Training Data for ML Reduced Model Creation

Machine learning proxy models are often used to speed up or completely replace complex computational models. The greatly reduced and deterministic computational costs enable new use cases such as digital twin control systems and global optimization. The challenge of building these proxy models is generating the training data. A naive uniform sampling of the input space can result in a non-uniform sampling of the output space of a model. This can cause gaps in the training data coverage that can miss finer scale details resulting in poor accuracy. While larger and larger data sets could eventually fill in these gaps, the computational burden of full-scale simulation codes can make this prohibitive. In this paper, we present an adaptive data generation method that utilizes uncertainty estimation to identify regions where training data should be augmented. By targeting data generation to areas of need, representative data sets can be generated efficiently. The effectiveness of this method will be demonstrated on a simple one-dimensional function and a complex multidimensional physics model.

Cianciosa, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. Additionally, we illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗