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At least 415 records · Page 23

An Assessment of Reduced Crew and Single Pilot Operations in Commercial Transport Aircraft Operations

Future reduced crew operations or even single pilot operations for commercial airline and on-demand mobility applications are an active area of research. These changes would reduce the human element and thus, threaten the precept that "a well-trained and well-qualified pilot is the critical center point of aircraft systems safety and an integral safety component of the entire commercial aviation system." NASA recently completed a pilot-in-the-loop high fidelity motion simulation study in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) attempting to quantify the pilot's contribution to flight safety during normal flight and in response to aircraft system failures. Crew complement was used as the experiment independent variable in a between-subjects design. These data show significant increases in workload for single pilot operations, compared to two-crew, with subjective assessments of safety and performance being significantly degraded as well. Nonetheless, in all cases, the pilots were able to overcome the failure mode effects in all crew configurations. These data reflect current-day flight deck equipage and help identify the technologies that may improve two-crew operations and/or possibly enable future reduced crew and/or single pilot operations.

Bailey, Randall E.↗

Analysis of Alerting System Failures in Commercial Aviation Accidents

The role of an alerting system is to make the system operator (e.g., pilot) aware of an impending hazard or unsafe state so the hazard can be avoided or managed successfully. A review of 46 commercial aviation accidents (between 1998 and 2014) revealed that, in the vast majority of events, either the hazard was not alerted or relevant hazard alerting occurred but failed to aid the flight crew sufficiently. For this set of events, alerting system failures were placed in one of five phases: Detection, Understanding, Action Selection, Prioritization, and Execution. This study also reviewed the evolution of alerting system schemes in commercial aviation, which revealed naive assumptions about pilot reliability in monitoring flight path parameters; specifically, pilot monitoring was assumed to be more effective than it actually is. Examples are provided of the types of alerting system failures that have occurred, and recommendations are provided for alerting system improvements.

aviation accidents↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using LANTR Propulsion and In-Situ Propellants Derived from Lunar Polar Ice (LPI) Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (Isp 900 s) twice that of todays best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx.16.5 klbf "Small Nuclear Rocket Engines (SNREs)", an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong "tourism" missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The processing of LPI deposits (estimated to be approx. 2 billion metric tons) for propellant production - specifically liquid oxygen (LO2) and hydrogen (LH2) can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth and can enable reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using LO2/LH2 chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, LO2/LH2 propellant depots can be established in lunar polar and equatorial orbits to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LO2-augmented NTR, or LANTR would be introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants (LDPs) for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an afterburner into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engines choked sonic throat essentially scramjet propulsion in reverse. By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and Isp values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even a commuter shuttle service may be possible allowing one-way trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hours or less. If only 1 of the postulated water ice trapped in deep shadowed craters at the lunar poles were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support daily commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years! The proposed paper outlines an evolutionary mission architecture and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs, along with the increasing demands on LDP production as mission complexity and delta V requirements increase. A comparison of vehicle features and engine operating characteristics are also provided together with a discussion of the propellant production and mining requirements, and issues, associated with using LPI as the source material.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

Deploying a Route Optimization EFB Application for Commercial Airline Operational Trials

The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), developed for NASA Langley Research Center to support the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) project, is a flight-efficiency software application developed for an Electronic Flight Bag (EFB). Tested in two flight trials and planned for operational testing by two commercial airlines, TAP is a real-time trajectory optimization application that leverages connectivity with onboard avionics and broadband Internet sources to compute and recommend route modifications to flight crews to improve fuel and time performance. The application utilizes a wide range of data, including Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic, Flight Management System (FMS) guidance and intent, on-board sensors, published winds and weather, and Special Use Airspace (SUA) schedules. This paper discusses the challenges of developing and deploying TAP to various EFB platforms, our solutions to some of these challenges, and lessons learned, to assist commercial software developers and hardware manufacturers in their efforts to implement and extend TAP functionality in their environments. EFB applications (such as TAP) typically access avionics data via an ARINC 834 Simple Text Avionics Protocol (STAP) server hosted by an Aircraft Interface Device (AID) or other installed hardware. While the protocol is standardized, the data sources, content, and transmission rates can vary from aircraft to aircraft. Additionally, the method of communicating with the AID may vary depending on EFB hardware and/or the availability of onboard networking services, such as Ethernet, WIFI, Bluetooth, or other mechanisms. EFBs with portable and installed components can be implemented using a variety of operating systems, and cockpits are increasingly incorporating tablet-based technologies, further expanding the number of platforms the application may need to support. Supporting multiple EFB platforms, AIDs, avionics datasets, and user interfaces presents a challenge for software developers and the management of their code baselines. Maintaining multiple baselines to support all deployment targets can be extremely cumbersome and expensive. Certification also needs to be considered when developing the application. Regardless of whether the software is itself destined to be certified, data requirements in support of the application and user interface elements may introduce certification requirements for EFB manufacturers and the airlines. The example of TAP, the challenges faced, solutions implemented, and lessons learned will give EFB application and hardware developers insight into future potential requirements in deploying TAP or similar flight-deck EFB applications.

Roscoe, David A.↗

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Parts Risk and Reliability User and Application Guide

All COTS parts are not created equal. Because they are not created equal, the notion that one can force the commercial industry to follow a set of military specifications and standards, along with the certifications, audits and qualification commitments that go with them, is unrealistic for the sale of a few parts. The part technologies that are Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) certified or Military Specification (MS) qualified, are several generations behind the state-of-the-art high-performance parts that are required for the compact, higher performing systems for the next generation of spacecraft and instruments. The majority of the part suppliers are focused on the portion of the market that is producing high-tech commercial products and systems. To that end, in order to compete in the high performance and leading edge advanced technological systems, an alternative approach to risk assessment and reliability prediction must be considered.

White, Mark↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using Nuclear Thermal Rocket Propulsion and Lunar Liquid Oxygen Derived from FeO-Rich Pyroclasitc Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable access through cislunar space necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (I(sub sp) approx. 900 s) twice that of today's best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles-consisting of a propulsion stage using three approx. 16.5-klb(sub f) small nuclear rocket engines (SNREs), an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload-are reusable, enabling a variety of lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong ''tourism'' missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in-situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The use of lunar liquid oxygen (LLO2) derived from iron oxide (FeO)-rich volcanic glass beads, found in numerous pyroclastic deposits on the Moon, can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth by enabling reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs)that use liquid oxygen and hydrogen (LO2/LH2) chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, a LO2/LH2 propellant depot can be established in lunar equatorial orbit to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR-called the LO2-augmented NTR, or LANTR-is introduced into the LTS allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an ''afterburner'' into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engine's choked sonic throat-essentially ''scramjet propulsion in reverse.'' By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and I(sub sp) values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short-transit-time crewed cargo transports. Even a ''commuter'' shuttle service may be possible allowing ''one-way'' trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hours or less. If only 1% of the extracted LLO2 propellant from identified resource sites were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support daily commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years! This report outlines an evolutionary architecture and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs, along with the increasing demands on LLO2 production as mission complexity and velocity change delta V requirements increase. A comparison of vehicle features and engine operating characteristics, for both NTR and LANTR engines, is also provided along with a discussion of the propellant production and mining requirements associated with using FeO-rich volcanic glass as source material.

rocket↗

Payload Operations Center - Lessons from Commercial Engagement

The International Space Station (ISS) Payload Operations and Integration Center (POIC) at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, United States, has gone through an evolution from supporting exclusively government ISS users to providing 50% (or more) of their support to commercial users. At the same time, they have expanded ground and facility operations to support a United States Orbital Segment crew expansion from three to four astronauts allowing an additional of 34 hours crew time per week. These additional hours are dedicated to utilization and have already surpassed the 100 hour peak weekly milestone in July 2018. This paper discusses the Center's changes in planning, staffing, coordination, and operations while addressing topics from the addition of secondary flight control positions to dynamic operations product reviews. MSFC's Human Exploration and Development Operations Office, which manages payload operations, seeks through this paper to highlight the higher priority commercial users now receive in replanning and in additional crew time.

Watkins, Bobby J.↗

Commercial Space In The Age Of “New Space”, Reusable Rockets and The Ongoing Tech Revolutions

A plethora of converging frontier technologies are reducing the costs of space access and utilization, enabling major growth going forward in commercial space, both in orbits up to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) and in “Deep Space” beyond GEO. This paper reviews these frontier technologies and enabling technological approaches, the landscape of enabled emerging commercial applications, their issues, and in some cases their competition and outlook, along with the attendant “hard problems”. Major issues include mitigation of the inspace human health issues, reliability and safety, details regarding on body space resources, and a closed competitive and timely business case.

Bushnell, Dennis M↗

Robust Exploration and Commercial Missions to the Moon Using Nuclear Thermal Rocket Propulsion and In Situ Propellants Derived from Lunar Polar Ice Deposits

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) has frequently been identified as a key space asset required for the human exploration of Mars. This proven technology can also provide the affordable “access through cislunar space” necessary for commercial development and sustained human presence on the Moon. It is a demonstrated technology capable of generating both high thrust and high specific impulse (I(sub sp) ~900 s)— twice that of today’s best chemical rockets. Nuclear lunar transfer vehicles—consisting of a propulsion stage using three ~16.5-klb(sub f) small nuclear rocket engines (SNREs), an in-line propellant tank, plus the payload—can enable a variety of reusable lunar missions. These include cargo delivery and crewed lunar landing missions. Even weeklong “tourism” missions carrying passengers into lunar orbit for a day of sightseeing and picture taking are possible. The NTR can play an important role in the next phase of lunar exploration and development by providing a robust in-space lunar transportation system (LTS) that can allow initial outposts to evolve into settlements supported by a variety of commercial activities such as in situ propellant production used to supply strategically located propellant depots and transportation nodes. The processing of lunar polar ice (LPI) deposits (estimated to be ~2 billion metric tons) for propellant production—specifically liquid oxygen (LO(sub 2)) and hydrogen (LH(sub 2))—can significantly reduce the launch mass requirements from Earth and can enable reusable, surface-based lunar landing vehicles (LLVs) using LO(sub 2)/LH(sub 2) chemical rocket engines. Afterwards, LO(sub 2)/LH(sub 2) propellant depots can be established in lunar polar and equatorial orbits to supply the LTS. At this point a modified version of the conventional NTR called the LO(sub 2)-augmented NTR, or LANTR, would be introduced into the LTS, allowing bipropellant operation and leveraging the mission benefits of refueling with lunar-derived propellants (LDPs) for Earth return. The bipropellant LANTR engine utilizes the large divergent section of its nozzle as an “afterburner” into which oxygen is injected and supersonically combusted with nuclear preheated hydrogen emerging from the engine’s choked sonic throat—essentially “scramjet propulsion in reverse.” By varying the oxygen-to-hydrogen mixture ratio, LANTR engines can operate over a range of thrust and I(sub sp) values while the reactor core power level remains relatively constant. A LANTR-based LTS offers unique mission capabilities including short transit time crewed cargo transports. Even a “commuter” shuttle service may be possible, allowing “one-way” trip times to and from the Moon on the order of 36 hr or less. If only 1% of the postulated trapped water ice were available for use in lunar orbit, such a supply could support routine commuter flights to the Moon for many thousands of years. This report outlines an evolving LTS architecture that uses propellants derived from LPI and examines a variety of mission types and transfer vehicle designs along with their operating characteristics and increasing demands on LDP production as mission complexity and velocity change ΔV requirements increase. A comparison of the LDP production and mining requirements using LPI and volcanic glass to produce lunar-derived liquid oxygen (LUNOX) via the hydrogen reduction process is included, and the synergy with an evolving helium-3 mining industry is also discussed.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

Variation in Sleep Duration and Circadian Phase by Duty Start Time Among Short-Haul Commercial Airline Pilots

Prior studies have confirmed that commercial airline pilots experience circadian phase shifts and short sleep duration following travel with layovers in different time zones. Few studies have examined the impact of early and late starts on the sleep and circadian phase of airline pilots who return to their domicile after each duty period. We recruited 44 pilots (4 female) from a short-haul commercial airline to participate in a study examining sleep and circadian phase over four duty schedules (baseline, early starts, mid-day starts, late starts). Each duty schedule was five days long, separated by three rest days. Participants completed the rosters in the same order. Sleep outcomes were estimated using wrist-borne actigraphy (Actiware Software, Respironics, Bend, OR) and daily sleep diaries. Thirteen participants volunteered to collect urine samples for the assessment of 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s). Urine samples were collected in four hourly bins during the day and eight-hourly bins during sleep episodes, for 24 hours immediately following each experimental duty schedule. The aMT6s results were fit to a cosine in order to obtain the acrophase to estimate circadian phase. Univariate statistics were calculated for acrophase changes, schedule start times and sleep times. All statistical analyses were computed using SAS software (Cary, IN).The mean duty start times varied as expected (baseline 10:17 [ 3:50], early starts 5:24 [ 0:30], mid-day starts 13:52 [ 1:20], late starts 16:33 [ 1:33]). Actigraphy-derived sleep duration varied between schedule types, with the shortest average sleep durations occurring during the early starts and night duty. Mean circadian phase was similar during each schedule type (baseline 26:14 [ 3:22], early starts 25:29 [2:13], mid-day starts 26:20 [ 3:16], late starts 25:49 [ 4:28]), but there were wide inter-individual differences in phase shifting from the beginning to the end of the study, with phase shifts ranging from a 5.98 hour phase advance to an 11.34 hour phase delay. Our preliminary findings suggest that early and late starts are associated with reduced sleep duration. The dispersion in inter-individual differences in circadian phase across shifting duty schedules should be further evaluated to determine how schedule-induced phase shifts may affect operational performance.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗

The Role of SmallSats in Scientific Exploration and Commercialization of Space

Over the past decade, SmallSats have been established as having great potential for science exploration and commercialization of space. The SmallSat revolution aims to decrease the cost of space development, making space exploration accessible to students, educators, and public citizens. These efforts have focused on miniaturization of instruments and space platforms, as well as reducing their cost, mass, and needed power. In addition to enabling scientific exploration, SmallSats provide affordable means for the public to purchase remote sensing and communication products on a global scale. SmallSat mission concepts are particularly powerful when they are deployed in distributed architecture or constellations. For example, the most promising observation techniques for global science measurements of the Earth system and space weather require multi-point distributed observations of the Earth system at a feasible cost. The high cost of access to space has long been a barrier, especially with the prohibitive cost of large satellites. Affordable SmallSat constellations can be game-changers, enabling scientific exploration as well as commercial global data products. In this paper, we highlight investments made by NASA to date (specifically a study in developing and prototyping a SmallSat platform with standard interfaces), along with several example mission concept scenarios in Earth and space science (astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary) applications that can be achieved using this platform.

technology development↗

Evaluating the Suitability of Commercial Clouds for NASA's High Performance Computing Applications: A Trade Study

NASA’s High-End Computing Capability (HECC) Project is periodically asked if it could be more cost effective through the use of commercial cloud resources. To answer the question, HECC’s Application Performance and Productivity (APP) team undertook a performance and cost evaluation comparing three domains: two commercial cloud providers, Amazon and Penguin, and HECC’s in-house resources—the Pleiades and Electra systems. In the study, the APP team used a combination of the NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPB) and six full applications from NASA’s workload on Pleiades and Electra to compare performance of nodes based on three different generations of Intel Xeon processors—Haswell, Broadwell, and Skylake. Because of export control limitations, the most heavily used applications on Pleiades and Electra could not be used in the cloud; therefore, only one of the applications, OpenFOAM, represents work from the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate and the Human and Exploration Mission Directorate. The other five applications are from the Science Mission Directorate.

High Performance↗

Motion Cueing for Stall Recovery Training in Commercial Transport Simulators

Starting in 2019, airline pilots will be required to perform full stall recovery training in flight simulators. Historically, training simulators weren't required to provide training at conditions outside their normal flight envelope. Post-stall aircraft models are generally required to be implemented to simulate the aircraft response after the stall point. In addition, motion cues need to adequately represent this response to ensure the skills learned in simulator training are directly usable in real flight. This paper provides and overview of six simulator experiments conducted at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a motion cueing strategies for stall recovery training in commercial transport simulators. One of the experiments verified an enhanced motion cueing strategy for stall recovery training on a level-D-certified full flight simulator. This study showed that the enhanced motion results in lower maximum roll angles in the stall maneuver, lower minimum load factors in the recovery, lower numbers of secondary stick shakers in the stall recovery, and a lower maximum airspeed in the recovery. These results indicate that relatively minor enhancements to the motion logic of heritage commercial transport simulators can significantly improve pilot performance in simulated stall recoveries, and potentially improve stall recovery training.

stall recovery↗

Verification of a Motion Cueing Strategy for Stall Recovery Training in a Commercial Transport Simulator

This presentation verifies a motion cueing strategy for improved pilot stall recovery training in commercial transport simulators. Eight airline transport pilots flew a high-altitude stall recovery task in the NASA B747 level-D-certified full flight simulator under three different motion configurations: no motion, baseline motion, and enhanced motion. For each motion condition, pilots performed the task with both baseline aircraft dynamics and aircraft dynamics enhanced with lateral-directional characteristics of the airplane at angle of attack approaching stall. Motion configuration significantly affected: 1) pilot opinions on the helpfulness of motion in performing the task, 2) the maximum roll angle in the stall maneuver, 3) the minimum load factor in the recovery, 4) the number of secondary stick shakers in the stall recovery, and 5) the maximum airspeed in the recovery. The two different aircraft dynamics significantly affected: 1) pilot opinions on the noticeability of the banking roll off near the stall and 2) the maximum roll angle in the stall maneuver. These results indicate that the relatively minor enhancements to the motion logic of heritage commercial transport simulators presented here can significantly improve pilot performance in simulated stall recoveries, and potentially improve stall recovery training.

Zaal, Petrus M. T.↗

Reliability Characterization of TaOx-Based Commercial ReRAM in Combination with Radiation

We present reliability data combined with total dose gamma radiation for one of the first commercially available resistive memory devices. These Tantalum Oxide (TaOX)-based resistive memory chips demonstrate operation in dynamic program and erase testing up to ~130 Krad(Si) of 60Co gamma dose. In static and unbiased conditions, the stored data in the memory cells were able to withstand up to 50Mrad(Si) of exposure. The access circuitry, though, seemed less robust to gamma radiation and was able to operate only up to a total dose of 3Mrad(Si). Post exposure reliability as indicated by endurance, cycling error rate, and data retention tests showed no detectable impact from the combination with prior gamma irradiation. Overall, the total dose radiation tolerance of the commercial TaOx-based resistive memory chip appears to be higher than flash memory chips and in agreement with prior tests conducted with single cell resistive memories.

total ionizing dose↗

Verification of a Motion Cueing Strategy for Stall Recovery Training in a Commercial Transport Simulator

This paper verifies a motion cueing strategy for improved pilot stall recovery training in commercial transport simulators. Eight airline transport pilots flew a high-altitude stall recovery task in the NASA B747 level-D-certified full flight simulator under three different motion configurations: no motion, baseline motion, and enhanced motion. For each motion condition, pilots performed the task with both baseline aircraft dynamics and aircraft dynamics enhanced with lateral-directional characteristics of the airplane at angle of attack approaching stall. Motion configuration significantly affected: 1) pilot opinions on the helpfulness of motion in performing the task, 2) the maximum roll angle in the stall maneuver, 3) the minimum load factor in the recovery, 4) the number of secondary stick shakers in the stall recovery, and 5) the maximum airspeed in the recovery. The two different aircraft dynamics significantly affected: 1) pilot opinions on the noticeability of the banking roll off near the stall and 2) the maximum roll angle in the stall maneuver. These results indicate that the relatively minor enhancements to the motion logic of heritage commercial transport simulators presented here can significantly improve pilot performance in simulated stall recoveries, and potentially improve stall recovery training.

Pilot Performance↗

Motion Cueing for Stall Recovery Training in Commercial Transport Simulators

Starting in 2019, airline pilots will be required to perform full stall recovery training in flight simulators. Historically, training simulators weren't required to provide training at conditions outside their normal flight envelope. Post-stall aircraft models are generally required to be implemented to simulate the aircraft response after the stall point. In addition, motion cues need to adequately represent this response to ensure the skills learned in simulator training are directly usable in real flight. This paper provides and overview of six simulator experiments conducted at NASA Ames Research Center to develop a motion cueing strategies for stall recovery training in commercial transport simulators. One of the experiments verified an enhanced motion cueing strategy for stall recovery training on a level-D-certified full flight simulator. This study showed that the enhanced motion results in lower maximum roll angles in the stall maneuver, lower minimum load factors in the recovery, lower numbers of secondary stick shakers in the stall recovery, and a lower maximum airspeed in the recovery. These results indicate that relatively minor enhancements to the motion logic of heritage commercial transport simulators can significantly improve pilot performance in simulated stall recoveries, and potentially improve stall recovery training.

stall recovery↗

Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

The objective of this work was to develop a multifidelity uncertainty quantification approach for efficient analysis of a commercial supersonic transport concept. An approach based on point-collocation, non-intrusive polynomial chaos was formulated in which a low-fidelity model could be corrected using multiple higher-fidelity models. The formulation and methodology also allows for the addition of uncertainty sources not present in the lower fidelity models. To demonstrate the applicability and potential computational savings of the multifidelity polynomial chaos approach, two model problems were explored. The first was a supersonic airfoil with three levels of modeling fidelity, each capturing a gradual increase in modeling of the underlying flow physics. As much as 50% computational cost reduction was observed using the mutlifidelity approach, while predicting nearly the same amount of uncertainty in drag. The second problem was a commercial supersonic transport. This model had three levels of fidelity that included two different modeling approaches and the addition of physics between the fidelity levels. Results of this analysis yielded nearly a 70% computational savings to predict a comparable amount of uncertainty in ground noise. Both problems illustrate the applicability and significant computational savings of the multifidelity method for efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification.

Thomas K. West IV↗