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At least 415 records · Page 23
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the available observations. The decreasing continental trend in precipitation is located primarily over tropical land regions, with some other regions, such as North America experiencing an increasing trend. Precipitation trends are diagnosed further using the water tracers to delineate the precipitation that occurs because of continental evaporation, as opposed to oceanic evaporation. These diagnostics show that over global land areas, the recycling of continental moisture is decreasing in time. However, the recycling changes are not spatially uniform so that some regions, most notably over the United States, experience continental recycling of water that increases in time.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗
NASA NTRS1999

Rapid Vegetational Change in Coastal North America: The Response to Climate Since the LGM

The late-glacial interval provided rapid shifts in climate which are mirrored by dramatic vegetational changes in North America. Through a transect of lake and mire sites from Connecticut to Virginia on the east coast and Kodiak Island on the western coast, we trace the warming following the LGM with the response of forests and tundra. A brief cold reversal in Virginia is seen from 12,260 to 12,200. The subsequent longer and extreme Younger Dryas event is marked in the southern New England - New Jersey region by dramatic boreal and deciduous forest changes. In the southeastern US, forests also change rapidly, with hemlock forest expansion suggesting increased moisture. In Kodiak Island, the warm, moist tundra of the Bolling/Allerod is replaced by colder, windswept Empetrum-dominated tundra during the Younger Dryas. The Pleistocene/Holocene shift in vegetation is remarkably pronounced in eastern North America as well as the Alaskan coastline. Response time of vegetation to climate change appears to be on the order of decades throughout these coastal locations, probably because of the proximity of sites to important ecotonal boundaries, and the magnitude of the events. Even in Virginia's Holocene record, a cold reversal inferred from increases in spruce and fir is noted at 7500 C14 yr BP. This response of the forests to a short-lived cooling shows the sensitivity of the biosphere to a rapid climate shifts.

Peteet, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of the Mid-Winter Arctic Stratosphere to QBO Width in a Simplified Chemistry-Climate Model

In the stratosphere, equatorial winds continually alternate between easterly (westward) and westerly (eastward). This phenomenon is called the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The average QBO cycle (Le. easterly to westerly to easterly) lasts approximately 27 months. Large-scale 'planetary' waves can only travel upward through the atmosphere when equatorial winds are westerly, and below a critical threshold. Thus, the amount of wave energy that reaches the middle atmosphere depends on the wind direction. When equatorial winds are easterly, wave energy is concentrated at higher latitudes, weakening the high-latitude eastward wind feature known as the 'polar jet' during the Northern Hemisphere winter season. Holton and Tan (1980) used atmospheric observations to show the dependence of the strength of the northern polar jet on the phase (easterly vs. westerly) of the QBO. This modeling study finds that the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) varies from one cycle to the next, and that variation in QBO width may exert equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the QBO wind direction. High latitude winds are weaker and ozone values are higher in a wide-QBO model simulation, as compared with a realistic simulation. This result implies that a relatively wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Decade of Volcanic Observations from Aura and the A-Train

Aura observations have made many seminal contributions to volcanology. Prior to the Aura launch, satellite observations of volcanic degassing (e.g., from TOMS) were mostly restricted to large eruptions. However, the vast majority of volcanic gases are released during quiescent 'passive' degassing between eruptions. The improved sensitivity of Aura OMI permitted the first daily, space-borne measurements of passive volcanic SO2 degassing, providing improved constraints on the source locations and magnitude of global SO2 emissions for input to atmospheric chemistry and climate models. As a result of this unique sensitivity to volcanic activity, OMI data were also the first satellite SO2 measurements to be routinely used for volcano monitoring at several volcano observatories worldwide. Furthermore, the Aura OMI SO2 data also offer unprecedented sensitivity to volcanic clouds in the UTLS, elucidating the transport, fate and lifetime of volcanic SO2 and providing critical input to aviation hazard mitigation efforts. Another major advance has been the improved vertical resolution of volcanic clouds made possible by synergy between Aura and other A-Train instruments (e.g., AIRS, CALIPSO, CloudSat), advanced UV SO2 altitude retrievals, and inverse trajectory modeling of detailed SO2 cloud maps. This altitude information is crucial for climate models and aviation hazards. We will review some of the highlights of a decade of Aura observations of volcanic activity and look ahead to the future of volcanic observations from space.

Aura↗
NASA NTRS1992

Volcanic winter and accelerated glaciation following the Toba super-eruption

Model calculations that investigate the possible climatic effects of the Toba volcanic cloud are presented. The increase in atmospheric opacity might have produced a 'volcanic winter', followed by a few years with maximum estimated annual hemispheric surface-temperature decreases of 3-5 C. The eruption occurred during the stage 5a-4 transition of the oxygen isotope record, a time of rapid ice growth and falling sea level. It is suggested that the Toba eruption may have greatly accelerated the shift to glacial conditions that was already under way, by inducing perennial snow cover and increased sea-ice extent at sensitive northern latitudes. As the onset of climate change may have helped to trigger the eruption itself, it is proposed that the Toba event may exemplify a more general climate-volcano feedback mechanism.

Rampino, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Understanding Seasonal Variability in Thin Cirrus Clouds from Continuous MPLNET Observations at GSFC in 2012

Optically thin cirrus cloud (optical depth < 0.3) net radiative forcing represents one of the primary uncertainties in climate feedback, as sub-visible clouds play a fundamental role in atmospheric radiation balance and climate change. A lidar is a very sensitive optical device to detect clouds with an optical depth as low as 10-4. In this paper we assess the daytime net radiative forcing of sub-visible cirrus clouds detected at Goddard Space Flight Center, a permanent observational site of the NASA Micro Pulse Lidar Network in 2012. Depending on their height, season and hour of the day, the solar albedo effect can outweigh the infrared greenhouse effect, cooling the earth atmosphere system rather than warming it exclusively. As result, based on latitude, the net forcing of sub-visible cirrus clouds can be more accurately parameterized in climate models.

Lolli, Simone↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Climate Projections by Understanding How Cloud Phase affects Radiation

Whether a cloud is predominantly water or ice strongly influences interactions between clouds and radiation coming down from the Sun or up from the Earth. Being able to simulate cloud phase transitions accurately in climate models based on observational data sets is critical in order to improve confidence in climate projections, because this uncertainty contributes greatly to the overall uncertainty associated with cloud-climate feedbacks. Ultimately, it translates into uncertainties in Earth's sensitivity to higher CO2 levels. While a lot of effort has recently been made toward constraining cloud phase in climate models, more remains to be done to document the radiative properties of clouds according to their phase. Here we discuss the added value of a new satellite data set that advances the field by providing estimates of the cloud radiative effect as a function of cloud phase and the implications for climate projections.

radiation↗
NASA NTRS2009

Climate and Lightning: An updated TRMM-LIS Analysis

The TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) has sampled global tropical and sub-tropical lightning flash densities for approximately 11 years. These data were originally processed and results presented by the authors in the 3rd AMS MALD Conference held in 2007 using both pre and post TRMM-boost lightning data. These data were normalized for the orbit boost by scaling the pre-boost data by a fixed constant based on the different swath areas for the pre and post-boost years (post-boost after 2001). Inevitably, one must question this simple approach to accounting for the orbit boost when sampling such a noisy quantity. Hence we are in the process of reprocessing the entire 11-year TRMM LIS dataset to reduce the orbit swath of the post-boost era to that of the pre-boost in order to eliminate sampling bias in the dataset. Study of the diurnal/seasonal/annual sampling suggests that those biases are already minimal and should not contribute to error in examination of annual trends. We will present new analysis of the 11-year annual trends in total lightning flash density for all latitudinal belts and select regions/regimes of the tropics as related to conventional climate signals and precipitation contents in the same period. The results should enable us to address, in some fashion, the sensitivity of the lightning flash density to subtle changes in climate.

Petersen, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Design Concepts and Performance Requirements

In late 1978, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched the Nimbus-7 satellite with the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and several other sensors, all of which provided major advances in Earth remote sensing. The inspiration for the CZCS is usually attributed to an article in Science by Clarke et al. who demonstrated that large changes in open ocean spectral reflectance are correlated to chlorophyll-a concentrations. Chlorophyll-a is the primary photosynthetic pigment in green plants (marine and terrestrial) and is used in estimating primary production, i.e., the amount of carbon fixed into organic matter during photosynthesis. Thus, accurate estimates of global and regional primary production are key to studies of the earth's carbon cycle. Because the investigators used an airborne radiometer, they were able to demonstrate the increased radiance contribution of the atmosphere with altitude that would be a major issue for spaceborne measurements. Since 1978, there has been much progress in satellite ocean color remote sensing such that the technique is well established and is used for climate change science and routine operational environmental monitoring. Also, the science objectives and accompanying methodologies have expanded and evolved through a succession of global missions, e.g., the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS), the Seaviewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), and the Global Imager (GLI). With each advance in science objectives, new and more stringent requirements for sensor capabilities (e.g., spectral coverage) and performance (e.g., signal-to-noise ratio, SNR) are established. The CZCS had four bands for chlorophyll and aerosol corrections. The Ocean Color Imager (OCI) recommended for the NASA Pre-Aerosol, Cloud, and Ocean Ecosystems (PACE) mission includes 5 nanometers hyperspectral coverage from 350 to 800 nanometers with three additional discrete near infrared (NIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) ocean aerosol correction bands. Also, to avoid drift in sensor sensitivity from being interpreted as environmental change, climate change research requires rigorous monitoring of sensor stability. For SeaWiFS, monthly lunar imaging accurately tracked stability at an accuracy of approximately 0.1% that allowed the data to be used for climate studies [2]. It is now acknowledged by the international community that future missions and sensor designs need to accommodate lunar calibrations. An overview of ocean color remote sensing and a review of the progress made in ocean color remote sensing and the variety of research applications derived from global satellite ocean color data are provided. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the design options for ocean color satellite radiometers, performance and testing criteria, and sensor components (optics, detectors, electronics, etc.) that must be integrated into an instrument concept. These ultimately dictate the quality and quantity of data that can be delivered as a trade against mission cost. Historically, science and sensor technology have advanced in a "leap-frog" manner in that sensor design requirements for a mission are defined many years before a sensor is launched and by the end of the mission, perhaps 15-20 years later, science applications and requirements are well beyond the capabilities of the sensor. Section 3 provides a summary of historical mission science objectives and sensor requirements. This progression is expected to continue in the future as long as sensor costs can be constrained to affordable levels and still allow the incorporation of new technologies without incurring unacceptable risk to mission success. The IOCCG Report Number 13 discusses future ocean biology mission Level-1 requirements in depth.

Ocean Color↗
NASA NTRS1990

Atmosphere-biosphere exchange of CO2 and O3 in the Central Amazon Forest

An eddy correlation measurement of O3 deposition and CO2 exchange at a level 10 m above the canopy of the Amazon forest, conducted as part of the NASA/INPE ABLE2b mission during the wet season of 1987, is presented. It was found that the ecosystem exchange of CO2 undergoes a well-defined diurnal variation driven by the input of solar radiation. A curvilinear relationship was found between solar irradiance and uptake of CO2, with net CO2 uptake at a given solar irradiance equal to rates observed over forests in other climate zones. The carbon balance of the system appeared sensitive to cloud cover on the time scale of the experiment, suggesting that global carbon storage might be affected by changes in insolation associated with tropical climate fluctuations. The forest was found to be an efficient sink for O3 during the day, and evidence indicates that the Amazon forests could be a significant sink for global ozone during the nine-month wet period and that deforestation could dramatically alter O3 budgets.

Fan, Song-Miao↗
NASA NTRS1988

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Francis, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A review of the application of nonattenuating frequency radars for estimating rain attenuation and space-diversity performance

Cumulative rain fade statistics are used by space communications engineers to establish transmitter power and receiver sensitivities for systems operating under various geometries, climates, and radio frequencies. Space-diversity performance criteria are also of interest. This work represents a review, in which are examined the many elements involved in the employment of single nonattenuating frequency radars for arriving at the desired information. The elements examined include radar techniques and requirements, phenomenological assumptions, path attenuation formulations and procedures, as well as error budgeting and calibration analysis. Included are the pertinent results of previous investigators who have used radar for rain-attenuation modeling. Suggestions are made for improving present methods.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Ecological optimality in water-limited natural soil-vegetation systems. II - Tests and applications

The long-term optimal climatic climax soil-vegetation system is defined for several climates according to previous hypotheses in terms of two free parameters, effective porosity and plant water use coefficient. The free parameters are chosen by matching the predicted and observed average annual water yield. The resulting climax soil and vegetation properties are tested by comparison with independent observations of canopy density and average annual surface runoff. The climax properties are shown also to satisfy a previous hypothesis for short-term optimization of canopy density and water use coefficient. Using these hypotheses, a relationship between average evapotranspiration and optimum vegetation canopy density is derived and is compared with additional field observations. An algorithm is suggested by which the climax soil and vegetation properties can be calculated given only the climate parameters and the soil effective porosity. Sensitivity of the climax properties to the effective porosity is explored.

Eagleson, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

Xue, Yongkang↗
NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Summer Monsoons in the UTLS as Observed By Recent NASA Airborne Campaigns.

During boreal summer, the circulation of the northern hemisphere upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is dominated by two quasi-stationary anticyclonic eddies driven by latent heat released in the troposphere: the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA) and the North American Monsoon Anticyclone (NAMA). Deep convection rapidly transports boundary layer air to the UTLS, and the monsoon anticyclones act to partially confine and isolate air from the surrounding atmosphere. The interactions between chemistry and circulation within these systems are crucial for understanding the sensitivity of these regions to changes in climate and air quality. Satellite observations show that within the summer monsoon anticyclones is a region of enhanced water vapor, aerosol, and trace gases of boundary layer origin near the tropopause level. However, satellite data do not provide necessary details for process studies and for diagnosing their representations in models. In response to this need, NASA conducted two airborne missions to investigate these summer monsoon systems and their roles in climate. NASA Earth Venture Suborbital 3 (EVS-3) mission called Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) completed two deployments in Salina, Kansas during summers 2021 and 2022 to study the NAMA. The Asian Summer Monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP) was a multi-agency effort to investigate the AMA from Osan, South Korea in summer 2022.

Summer↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is described and the first stage science plan outlined. PILPS is a project designed to improve the parameterization of the continental surface, especially the hydrological, energy, momentum, and carbon exchanges with the atmosphere. The PILPS Science Plan incorporates enhanced documentation, comparison, and validation of continental surface parameterization schemes by community participation. Potential participants include code developers, code users, and those who can provide datasets for validation and who have expertise of value in this exercise. PILPS is an important activity because existing intercomparisons, although piecemeal, demonstrate that there are significant differences in the formulation of individual processes in the available land surface schemes. These differences are comparable to other recognized differences among current global climate models such as cloud and convection parameterizations. It is also clear that too few sensitivity studies have been undertaken with the result that there is not yet enough information to indicate which simplifications or omissions are important for the near-surface continental climate, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. PILPS emphasizes sensitivity studies with and intercomparisons of existing land surface codes and the development of areally extensive datasets for their testing and validation.

Henderson-Sellers, A.↗