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DOE OSTI2024

McGrath, Alaska Community Energy Plan [Slides]

The US Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) works alongside remote and island communities seeking to transform their energy systems and increase energy resilience. The City of McGrath took part in the ETIPP program in 2023-2024. As part of the project, community members formed the McGrath Energy Committee, made up of residents and local stakeholder organizations. The McGrath Energy Committee then worked with technical advisors from regional associations, university programs, and national labs to conduct a baseline energy assessment of the community, organize a community energy education series, identify key focus areas relevant to McGrath, explore funding opportunities, and create the McGrath Community Energy Plan. This plan serves as a foundational guide for future energy projects in the community, aligned with McGrath's long-term energy goal: "to be a catalyst to encourage energy resiliency in our community and the Upper Kuskokwim Region." - November 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Archaeal and bacterial communities in three alkaline hot springs in Heart Lake Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

The Heart Lake Geyser Basin (HLGB) is remotely located at the base of Mount Sheridan in southern Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming, USA and is situated along Witch Creek and the northwestern shore of Heart Lake. Likely because of its location, little is known about the microbial community structure of springs in the HLGB. Bacterial and archaeal populations were monitored via small subunit (SSU) rRNA gene pyrosequencing over 3 years in 3 alkaline (pH 8.5) hot springs with varying temperatures (44°C, 63°C, 75°C). The bacterial populations were generally stable over time, but varied by temperature. The dominant bacterial community changed from moderately thermophilic and photosynthetic members (Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi) at 44°C to a mixed photosynthetic and thermophilic community (Deinococcus-Thermus) at 63°C and a non-photosynthetic thermophilic community at 75°C. The archaeal community was more variable across time and was predominantly a methanogenic community in the 44 and 63°C springs and a thermophilic community in the 75°C spring. The 75°C spring demonstrated large shifts in the archaeal populations and was predominantly Candidatus Nitrosocaldus, an ammonia-oxidizing crenarchaeote, in the 2007 sample, and almost exclusively Thermofilum or Candidatus Caldiarchaeum in the 2009 sample, depending on SSU rRNA gene region examined. The majority of sequences were dissimilar (≥10% different) to any known organisms suggesting that HLGB possesses numerous new phylogenetic groups that warrant cultivation efforts.

16S rRNA pyrosequencing↗

DOE OSTI2017

Diversity and Structure of Diazotrophic Communities in Mangrove Rhizosphere, Revealed by High-Throughput Sequencing

Diazotrophic communities make an essential contribution to the productivity through providing new nitrogen. However, knowledge of the roles that both mangrove tree species and geochemical parameters play in shaping mangove rhizosphere diazotrophic communities is still elusive. Here, a comprehensive examination of the diversity and structure of microbial communities in the rhizospheres of three mangrove species, Rhizophora apiculata , Avicennia marina , and Ceriops tagal , was undertaken using high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA and nifH genes. Our results revealed a great diversity of both the total microbial composition and the diazotrophic composition specifically in the mangrove rhizosphere. Deltaproteobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria were both ubiquitous and dominant, comprising an average of 45.87 and 86.66% of total microbial and diazotrophic communities, respectively. Sulfate-reducing bacteria belonging to the Desulfobacteraceae and Desulfovibrionaceae were the dominant diazotrophs. Community statistical analyses suggested that both mangrove tree species and additional environmental variables played important roles in shaping total microbial and potential diazotroph communities in mangrove rhizospheres. In contrast to the total microbial community investigated by analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequences, most of the dominant diazotrophic groups identified by nifH gene sequences were significantly different among mangrove species. The dominant diazotrophs of the family Desulfobacteraceae were positively correlated with total phosphorus, but negatively correlated with the nitrogen to phosphorus ratio. Finally, the Pseudomonadaceae were positively correlated with the concentration of available potassium, suggesting that diazotrophs potentially play an important role in biogeochemical cycles, such as those of nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and potassium, in the mangrove ecosystem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microbial Community Characteristics Largely Unaffected by X-Ray Computed Tomography of Sediment Cores

X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning is used to study the physical characteristics of soil and sediment cores, allowing scientists to analyze stratigraphy without destroying core integrity. Microbiologists often work with geologists to understand the microbial properties in such cores; however, we do not know whether CT scanning alters microbial DNA such that DNA sequencing, a common method of community characterization, changes as a result of X-ray exposure. Our objective was to determine whether CT scanning affects the estimates of the composition of microbial communities that exist in cores. Sediment cores were extracted from a salt marsh and then submitted for CT scanning. We observed a minimal effect of CT scanning on microbial community composition in the sediment cores either when the cores were examined shortly after recovery from the field or after the cores had been stored for several weeks. In contrast, properties such as sediment layer and marsh location did affect microbial community structure. While we observed that CT scanning did not alter microbial community composition as a whole, we identified a few amplicon sequence variants (13 out of 7,037) that showed differential abundance patterns between scanned and unscanned samples among paired sample sets. Our overall conclusion is that the CT-scanning conditions typically used to obtain images for geological core characterization do not significantly alter microbial community structure. We stress that minimizing core exposure to X-rays is important if cores are to be studied for biological properties. Future investigations might consider variables, such as the length and energy of radiation exposure, the volume of the core, or the degree, to which microbial communities are stressed as important factors in assessing the impact of X-rays on microbes in geological cores.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting Community Assembly Forces Drive Microbial Structural and Potential Functional Responses to Precipitation in an Incipient Soil System

Microbial communities in incipient soil systems serve as the only biotic force shaping landscape evolution. However, the underlying ecological forces shaping microbial community structure and function are inadequately understood. We used amplicon sequencing to determine microbial taxonomic assembly and metagenome sequencing to evaluate microbial functional assembly in incipient basaltic soil subjected to precipitation. Community composition was stratified with soil depth in the pre-precipitation samples, with surficial communities maintaining their distinct structure and diversity after precipitation, while the deeper soil samples appeared to become more uniform. The structural community assembly remained deterministic in pre- and post-precipitation periods, with homogenous selection being dominant. Metagenome analysis revealed that carbon and nitrogen functional potential was assembled stochastically. Sub-populations putatively involved in the nitrogen cycle and carbon fixation experienced counteracting assembly pressures at the deepest depths, suggesting the communities may functionally assemble to respond to short-term environmental fluctuations and impact the landscape-scale response to perturbations. We propose that contrasting assembly forces impact microbial structure and potential function in an incipient landscape; in situ landscape characteristics (here homogenous parent material) drive community structure assembly, while short-term environmental fluctuations (here precipitation) shape environmental variations that are random in the soil depth profile and drive stochastic sub-population functional dynamics.

16S amplicon sequencing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Harvest on Switchgrass Leaf Microbial Communities

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for biofuel production, with potential for leveraging its native microbial community to increase productivity and resilience to environmental stress. Here, we characterized the bacterial, archaeal and fungal diversity of the leaf microbial community associated with four switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) genotypes, subjected to two harvest treatments (annual harvest and unharvested control), and two fertilization levels (fertilized and unfertilized control), based on 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region amplicon sequencing. Leaf surface and leaf endosphere bacterial communities were significantly different with Alphaproteobacteria enriched in the leaf surface and Gammaproteobacteria and Bacilli enriched in the leaf endosphere. Harvest treatment significantly shifted presence/absence and abundances of bacterial and fungal leaf surface community members: Gammaproteobacteria were significantly enriched in harvested and Alphaproteobacteria were significantly enriched in unharvested leaf surface communities. These shifts were most prominent in the upland genotype DAC where the leaf surface showed the highest enrichment of Gammaproteobacteria, including taxa with 100% identity to those previously shown to have phytopathogenic function. Fertilization did not have any significant impact on bacterial or fungal communities. We also identified bacterial and fungal taxa present in both the leaf surface and leaf endosphere across all genotypes and treatments. These core taxa were dominated by Methylobacterium, Enterobacteriaceae, and Curtobacterium, in addition to Aureobasidium, Cladosporium, Alternaria and Dothideales. Local core leaf bacterial and fungal taxa represent promising targets for plant microbe engineering and manipulation across various genotypes and harvest treatments. Our study showcases, for the first time, the significant impact that harvest treatment can have on bacterial and fungal taxa inhabiting switchgrass leaves and the need to include this factor in future plant microbial community studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Flight Research Overview of WSPR, a Pilot Project for Sonic Boom Community Response

In support of NASAs ongoing effort to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center and NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to identify the methods, tools, and best practices for a large-scale quiet (or low) sonic boom community human response test. The name of the effort was Waveforms and Sonic boom Perception and Response. Such tests will go towards building a dataset that governing agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration and International Civil Aviation Organization will use to establish regulations for acceptable sound levels of overland sonic booms. Until WSPR, there had never been an effort that studied the response of people in their own homes and performing daily activities to non-traditional, low sonic booms.WSPR was a NASA collaborative effort with several industry partners, in response to a NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Research Opportunities in Aeronautics. The primary contractor was Wyle. Other partners included Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Pennsylvania State University, Tetra Tech, and Fidell Associates, Inc.A major objective of the effort included exposing a community with the sonic boom magnitudes and occurrences expected in high-air traffic regions with a network of supersonic commercial aircraft in place. Low-level sonic booms designed to simulate those produced by the next generation of commercial supersonic aircraft were generated over a small residential community. The sonic boom footprint was recorded with an autonomous wireless microphone array that spanned the entire community. Human response data was collected using multiple survey methods. The research focused on essential elements of community response testing including subject recruitment, survey methods, instrumentation systems, flight planning and operations, and data analysis methods.This paper focuses on NASAs role in the efforts logistics and operations including human response subject recruitment, the operational processes involved in implementing the surveys throughout the community, instrumentation systems, logistics, flight planning, and flight operations. Findings discussed in this paper include critical lessons learned in all of those areas. The paper also discusses flight operations results. Analysis of the accuracy and repeatability of planning and executing the unique aircraft maneuver used to generate low sonic booms concluded that the sonic booms had overpressures within 0.15 pounds-per-square-feet of the planned values for 76 of t he attempts. Similarly, 90 of the attempts to generate low sonic booms within the community were successful.

sonic booms↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Flight Research Overview of WSPR, a Pilot Project for Sonic Boom Community Response

In support of the ongoing effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center and the NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to identify the methods, tools, and best practices for a large-scale quiet (or low) sonic boom community human response test. The name of the effort was Waveforms and Sonic boom Perception and Response (WSPR). Such tests will be applied to building a dataset that governing agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration and the International Civil Aviation Organization will use to establish regulations for acceptable sound levels of overland sonic booms. The WSPR test was the first such effort that studied responses to non-traditional low sonic booms while the subject persons were in their own homes and performing daily activities.The WSPR test was a NASA collaborative effort with several industry partners, in response to a NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Research Opportunities in Aeronautics. The primary contractor was Wyle (El Segundo, California). Other partners included Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (Savannah, Georgia); Pennsylvania State University (University Park, Pennsylvania); Tetra Tech, Inc. (Pasadena, California); and Fidell Associates, Inc. (Woodland Hills, California).A major objective of the effort included exposing a community to the sonic boom magnitudes and occurrences that would be expected to occur in high-air traffic regions having a network of supersonic commercial aircraft in place. Low-level sonic booms designed to simulate those produced by the next generation of commercial supersonic aircraft were generated over a small residential community. The sonic boom footprint was recorded with an autonomous wireless microphone array that spanned the entire community. Human response data were collected using multiple survey methods. The research focused on essential elements of community response testing including subject recruitment, survey methods, instrumentation systems, flight planning and operations, and data analysis methods.This paper focuses on the NASA role in the logistics and operations of the effort, including human response subject recruitment, the operational processes involved in implementing the surveys throughout the community, instrumentation systems, logistics, flight planning, and flight operations. Findings discussed in this paper include critical lessons learned in all of the above-mentioned areas, as well as flight operations results. Analysis of the accuracy and repeatability of planning and executing the unique aircraft maneuver used to generate low sonic booms concluded that the sonic booms had overpressures within 0.15 lbft2 of the planned values for 76 percent of the attempts. Similarly, 90 percent of the attempts to generate low sonic booms within the community were successful.

community response↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effective Engagement for Community Action with NASA’s Indigenous Peoples Initiative

NASA’s Indigenous Peoples Initiative (IPI) seeks to support and cultivate efforts within Indigenous communities and NASA to increase the use of Earth Observations (EO) to inform decisions, policies, and actions. IPI is dedicated to building lasting relationships with Indigenous communities by creating a trusted, reliable, and Indigenous-centric geospatial community with a focus on environmental justice and climate issues on Indigenous lands and territories. Indigenous communities through conservation, restoration, and adaptation have the opportunity to further empower their landscape work through the potential use of EO and other NASA data and tools. We will outline our guiding principles, multiple approaches, and lessons learned for working alongside Indigenous communities in a respectful and reciprocal manner. These include the recognition of multiple ways of knowing, co-development of trainings, acknowledgement of all sovereignty, maintaining healthy relationships with tribal natural resource managers and building bridges for their engagement with NASA researchers and other federal agency partners, and making space for reflection and adaptation of our practices as we grow. Future activities, such as dialogue sessions with Indigenous communities around EO needs, aim to enhance these practices and ultimately benefit the ability for Indigenous communities to maintain and protect their lands, people, and practices in the face of environmental injustices and climate change.

Effective↗

DOE OSTI2011

Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster - readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that - help strengthen existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. This tool has been reviewed by a variety of key subject matter experts from federal, state, and local agencies and organizations. It also has been piloted with various communities that consist of different population sizes, to include large urban to small rural communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operating-Envelopes-Aware Decentralized Welfare Maximization for Energy Communities: Preprint

We propose an operating-envelope-aware, prosumer-centric, and efficient energy community that aggregates individual and shared community distributed energy resources downstream of a regulated distribution system operator's (DSO) net energy metering revenue meter. Due to the elevated risk of grid constraint violations and to ensure safe network operation, the DSO imposes dynamic export and import limits, known as dynamic operating envelopes, on end-users' revenue meters. Given the operating envelopes, the proposed community market mechanism maximizes the community's social welfare in a decentralized fashion while every community member abides by its own operating envelopes. We show that the proposed market mechanism conforms with the cost-causation principle and guarantees community members a surplus level no less than their maximum surplus when they autonomously face the DSO. Lastly, a numerical study is implemented to showcase and compare the community's welfare under the proposed operating-envelopes-aware mechanisms to others, including the welfare of customers under the DSO's regime.

distributed energy resources aggregation↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Methodology for Defining Affordability in Commercial Buildings and its Impact on Underserved Communities

Commercial buildings are at the heart of any community. Investments towards the health and performance of community buildings can support a wide range of critical community and individual benefits; however, many buildings have been left behind in these investments due to a spectrum of barriers, especially those located in underserved communities. This portfolio of work stands with the intent that if we can create solutions to support the hardest-to-reach commercial buildings in gaining equitable access to energy efficiency, zero energy, and zero carbon solutions, we can support all commercial buildings with these goals. To understand success and barriers, and identify new, innovative, and impactful solutions, NREL is taking a four-part approach to: 1. Develop a methodology for defining affordability in commercial buildings and understand its impact on underserved communities, 2. Work with trusted, local organizations to address barriers that impede access to cost-effective, holistic, building performance improvements, 3. Support minority-focused developer incubator programs for, and within, underserved communities, and 4. Identify overlapping value streams that support underserved community and utility needs.

building electrification↗

DOE OSTI2017

Community Solar Value Project

The Community Solar Value Project (CSVP) is designed to assist electric utilities in designing better community solar programs. Better programs seek new sources of value to promote “win-win” solutions between utilities and their customers. The CSVP focused on five “challenge areas” in identifying new sources of value: - Strategic solar design for community solar projects (including technology choices, siting, orientation, and related issues) - Market research and targeted marketing approaches (for program design and for customer recruitment) - Procurement and financing (for establishing best practices that can bring economies of scale and economies of expertise) - Integration of “companion measures” (such as storage and demand-response options that can benefit customer and utility net load shapes) - Pricing in program design (including best practices for integration of identified value in program prices or credits) The CSVP directly engaged the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM), and more than a dozen other utilities to develop improved community solar program designs. The outcomes include a plan at SMUD for over 100 MW or more of community and shared solar and support for new or expanded programs at 15 other utilities so far. Resulting best-practice solutions have not only informed program applications, but also have generated discussion among experts and industry associations about the new opportunities and challenges CSVP has brought forth. In these ways, the CSVP has impacted community solar programs and DER plans, competitive innovations and policies nationwide. The CSVP team has been led by Extensible Energy under John Powers, President and CEO. Jill Cliburn, of Santa Fe, NM-based Cliburn and Associates, has served as Principal Investigator. The team also benefitted from expertise from Navigant, Olivine Inc. and Millennium Energy, LLC, in addition to the collaborative and cost-sharing contributions of its utility partners. The CSVP team participated fully in the Solar Market Pathways Program, which was initiated under the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot program and reports to the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office. This report summarizes a multi-disciplinary project that took place over 33 months from January, 2015 through September, 2017.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Functional strategies drive community assembly of stream fishes along environmental gradients and across spatial scales

Trade-offs among functional traits produce multi-trait strategies that shape species interactions with the environment and drive the assembly of local communities from regional species pools. Stream fish communities vary along stream size gradients and among hierarchically structured habitat patches, but little is known about how the dispersion of strategies varies along environmental gradients and across spatial scales. We used null models to quantify the dispersion of reproductive life history, feeding, and locomotion strategies in communities sampled at three spatial scales in a prairie stream network in Kansas, USA. Strategies were generally underdispersed at all spatial scales, corroborating the longstanding notion of abiotic filtering in stream fish communities. We tested for variation in strategy dispersion along a gradient of stream size and between headwater streams draining different ecoregions. Reproductive life history strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from downstream to upstream, suggesting that abiotic filtering is stronger in headwaters. This pattern was stronger among reaches compared to mesohabitats, supporting the premise that differences in hydrologic regime among reaches filter reproductive life history strategies. Feeding strategies became increasingly underdispersed moving from upstream to downstream, indicating that environmental filters associated with stream size affect the dispersion of feeding and reproductive life history in opposing ways. Weak differences in strategy dispersion were detected between ecoregions, suggesting that different abiotic filters or strategies drive community differences between ecoregions. Lastly, given the pervasiveness of multi-trait strategies in plant and animal communities, we conclude that the assessment of strategy dispersion offers a comprehensive approach for elucidating mechanisms of community assembly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bacterial endophyte communities in Pinus flexilis are structured by host age, tissue type, and environmental factors

Background and aims: Forest tree microbiomes are vital to forest dynamics, diversity, and ecosystem processes. Mature limber pines ( Pinus flexilis ) host a core microbiome of acetic acid bacteria in their foliage, but the bacterial endophyte community structure, variation, and assembly across tree ontogeny is unknown. The aims of this research were to test if the core microbiome observed in adult P. flexilis is established at the seedling stage, if seedlings host different endophyte communities in root and shoot tissues, and how environmental factors structure seedling endophyte communities. Methods: The 16S rRNA gene was sequenced to characterize the bacterial endophyte communities in roots and shoots of P. flexilis seedlings grown in plots at three elevations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, subjected to experimental treatments (watering and heating). The data was compared to previously sequenced endophyte communities from adult tree foliage sampled in the same year and location. Results: Seedling shoots hosted a different core microbiome than adult tree foliage and were dominated by a few OTUs in the family Oxalobacteraceae , identical or closely related to strains with antifungal activity. Shoot and root communities significantly differed from each other but shared major OTUs. Watering but not warming restructured the seedling endophyte communities. Conclusions: The results indicate differences in assembly and ecological function across conifer life stages. Seedlings may recruit endophytes to protect against fungi under increased soil moisture.

16S rRNA↗

DOE OSTI2018

Microbial community structure and functions differ between native and novel (exotic-dominated) grassland ecosystems in an 8-year experiment

Aims Grasslands dominated by non-native (exotic) species have replaced purely native-dominated areas in many parts of the world forming ‘novel’ ecosystems. It is still poorly understood how soil microbial communities and their functions are affected between these native- and exotic-dominated sites. Methods We sampled 64 experimental grassland plots in central Texas with plant species mixtures of either all native or all exotic species; half with summer irrigation. We tested how native vs. exotic plant species mixtures and summer irrigation affected bacterial and fungal community composition and structure, microbial phylotype co-occurrence, and rates of mineralization across sampling years. Results Plant origin significantly affected fungal community composition and structure, but not diversity, throughout the length of the study, while changes in bacterial communities were limited to certain years. Nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization rates were higher under native plant mixtures, and correlated with changes in particular fungal species. Microbial communities were more structured in exotic than native grassland plots, especially for the fungal community. Conclusions The results indicate that conversion of native to exotic grasslands will more strongly impact fungal than bacterial communities structure. Furthermore, these impacts can alter ecosystem functioning belowground via changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Communities in energy transition: exploring best practices and decision support tools to provide equitable outcomes

Abstract The U.S. coal industry has been in a state of decline for the past decade, a trend ushered by flat electricity demand, increased regulatory pressure, and market competition from cost-competitive clean energy sources. The receding economic viability of the coal industry has been acutely felt by the communities with immediate economic ties to coal-fired generation. With the energy transition underway, the question of how to engage communities as stakeholders in the decision-making process and address their needs through an equitable and just transition remains unresolved. To that end, this paper explores the economic, environmental, and social challenges presented by the energy transition at the community level, highlighting four case studies from transitioning coal-dependent communities across the United States to ultimately identify best practices in coal plant decommissioning processes. This paper weaves these community-identified best practices into two support tools—a decommissioning checklist and a redevelopment decision-making framework—that can be used to engage communities in the power plant retirement decision, the site reclamation phase, and eventual redevelopment of the site and revitalization of the surrounding community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗