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At least 415 records · Page 23

Overview of Aerosol Distribution

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is fundamental for progress in climate change and hydrological cycle research. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate. I shall discuss these topics and application of the data to air quality monitoring.

Kaufman, Yoram↗

Satellite Observations of the Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosols on Clouds

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with clouds and precipitation is still lacking despite decades of research. Understanding the global aerosol system is critical to quantifying anthropogenic climate change, to determine climate sensitivity from observations and to understand the hydrological cycle. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 years ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing threat of global warming, we need an array of satellites and field measurements coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week) and variable chemical composition. A new generation of satellites provides exciting opportunities to measure the global distribution of aerosols, distinguishing natural from anthropogenic aerosol and measuring their interaction with clouds and climate.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors.

Weir, B.↗

Alternative, Less Water-Intensive, Fracturing Fluids for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Four fracturing fluids; water, CO2, CO2 with water, and CO2 with an aqueous solution of a CO2-reactive polymer, poly(allylamine) (PAA, 1wt%) were evaluated using a high-temperature true-triaxial fracturing apparatus and ½ foot side granite cubic samples. All three CO2-based fracturing fluids, CO2, CO2 with water, and CO2 with aqueous PAA fractured granite at higher breakdown pressures, high transient flow rates, and produce higher-conductivity fractures as compared to water. Additionally, faster pressurization rates with CO2-based fracturing fluids (obtained when fracturing at constant flow rate mode) are found to be associated with higher fracture conductivities. When partially saturating the rock sample with PAA solution followed by fracturing with CO2, the volume expansion caused by CO2-induced cross-linking of PAA leads to a faster pressure increase due to the associated stress generated and increase in viscosity. It was also found that CO2 as a fracturing fluid injected in hot dry rock (HDR) attain the highest fracture conductivity only when injected at very high flow rates, followed very closely by the CO2/PAA fracturing fluid system that generates fractures with, on average, similarly high conductivity values though independently of injection flow rate and using 1/6 of the mass of CO2 as compared to CO2 in HDR. Breakdown pressures were also similar for CO2 stimulation in HDR and CO2/PAA fluid system under identical injection flow rates. It is concluded that CO2 (when injected in HDR) and CO2/PAA are the fluids of choice for stimulation of granitic rock samples under the studied geothermal P/T conditions. CO2/PAA, however, offer the following three additional advantages; 1) it requires significantly lower volumes of CO2, 2) fracture permeability is independent of injection flow rate, and 3) the reversible (previously reported) viscosity increase is beneficial to transport proppants if they are ever developed enhanced geothermal systems.

Jian, Guoqing↗

Alfven eigenmodes and fast ion transport in negative triangularity DIII-D plasmas

The first energetic particle experiments in negative triangularity tokamak plasmas have been carried out on DIII-D. Alfvén eigenmode (AE) activity and associated fast ion transport comparable to that in positive triangularity is observed during the current ramp portion of all plasmas with early beam heating indicating negative triangularity does not confer a special advantage with respect to AE induced transport. In these discharges, a range of mode activity driven by the sub-Alfvénic (Vbeam/VA < 0.5) 80 kV neutral beams is found including beta induced Alfvén acoustic eigenmodes, beta induced Alfvén eigenmodes, reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes (RSAEs) and toroidicity induced Alfvén eigenmodes (TAEs). Mode intermittency and possibly chirping appears to be more common than comparable positive triangularity and/or oval discharges but overall, the unstable spectra and mode amplitudes observed on magnetics, CO2 interferometry, and electron cyclotron emission in a set of matched positive and negative triangularity cases at moderate beam power is similar. Large levels of Alfvén eigenmode induced fast ion transport are found in both positive and negative triangularity with up to 70% central fast ion pressure deficits relative to classical predictions early during the current ramp phase for discharges with 3 MW injected 80 kV neutral beam power. The deficit in both cases is reduced toward zero as the current penetrates and eventually reaches classical levels during current flattop with qmin ≈ 1. Fast ion transport in negative triangularity plasmas measured using a beam modulation technique show very similar levels to those measured in oval plasmas over the range of tested beam powers (Pbeam ≈ 2–7 MW). This similarity is found despite quite different unstable spectra in the highest beam power case where a mixture of coherent and quasi-coherent modes in the TAE frequency range are observed in negative triangularity and a spectrum of more typical narrowband TAEs and RSAEs is observed for the oval plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aerosol Backscatter from Airborne Continuous Wave CO2 Lidars Over Western North America and the Pacific Ocean

Atmospheric aerosol backscatter, beta, variability gives a direct indication of aerosol loading. Since aerosol variability is governed by regional sources and sinks as well as affected by its transport due to meteorological conditions, it is important to characterize this loading at different locations and times. Lidars are sensitive instruments that can effectively provide high-resolution, large-scale sampling of the atmosphere remotely by measuring aerosol beta, thereby capturing detailed temporal and spatial variability of aerosol loading, Although vertical beta profiles are usually obtained by pulsed lidars, airborne-focused CW lidars, with high sensitivity and short time integration, can provide higher resolution sampling in the vertical, thereby revealing detailed structure of aerosol layers. During the 1995 NASA Multicenter Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) mission, NASA MSFC airborne-focused CW CO2 Doppler lidars, operating at 9.1 and 10.6-micrometers wavelength, obtained high resolution in situ aerosol beta measurements to characterize aerosol variability. The observed variability in beta at 9.1-micrometers wavelength with altitude is presented as well as comparison with some pulsed lidar profiles.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

SPRUCE Methane Transport in Plants at S1 Bog, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, 2017-2019

This data set contains measurements of methane (CH4) transport by plants (both ground-layer and trees) and diffusion, as well as whole-plot emissions, taken in September 2018 and June 2019 in S1 Bog outside of the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experimental enclosures. Additionally, CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) stable isotope data in porewater and atmospheric emissions were taken in July 2017 in the SPRUCE enclosures to explore the relative magnitude of CH4 oxidation. Episodic ebullition rates for S1 Bog are taken from Gill et al. (2017). Methane transport is an important component of many ecosystem models of peatlands. The results were compared to two methane models that have been developed for the SPRUCE project, ELM-SPRUCE (Earth Land Model) and TECO_SPRUCE (Terrestrial ECOsystem model). This dataset contains six data files in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: six data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stratospheric Age Spectra and Mean Ages From In Situ Observations of Carbon Dioxide

Tropospheric CO2 mixing ratios exhibit latitudinally varying seasonal and interannual oscillations superimposed on the long-term positive trend due to fossil fuel combustion. In situ observations of CO2 obtained from 1992-2000 using the NASA ER-2 aircraft and high-altitude balloons show that these time-varying signals propagate into the stratosphere, providing information about the transport history of sampled air. We have used these data to derive age spectra and mean ages that can be compared with results from models of the stratospheric circulation. Age spectra have been derived for altitudes below approximately 20 km for the tropics and for northern midlatitudes, where there is sufficient data and where the amplitudes of the seasonal and interannual oscillations are large enough to be detected. The midlatitude CO2 data are consistent with bimodal age spectra, which may result from a subtropical "barrier" to horizontal exchange. Seasonally resolved mean ages are available with nearly pole-to-pole coverage below 20 km and in the tropics and at middle and high northern latitudes up to the maximum altitude reached by the balloons (approximately 30 km). The oldest air sampled was in the Arctic polar vortex with a mean age of 6.5 +/- 0.5 years.

Andrews, Arlyn E.↗

Towards Energy–Efficient Direct Air Capture with Photochemically–Driven CO 2 Release and Solvent Regeneration

The intensive energy demands associated with solvent regeneration and CO 2 release in current direct air capture (DAC) technologies makes their deployment at the massive scales (GtCO 2 /year) required to positively impact the climate economically unfeasible. This challenge underscores the critical need to develop new DAC processes with significantly reduced energy costs. Recently, we developed a new approach to photochemically drive efficient release of CO 2 through an intermolecular proton transfer reaction by exploiting the unique properties of an indazole metastable-state photoacid (mPAH), opening a new avenue towards energy efficient on-demand CO 2 release and solvent regeneration using abundant solar energy instead of heat. In this Concept Article, we will describe the principle of our photochemically-driven CO 2 release approach for solvent-based DAC systems, discuss the essential prerequisites and conditions to realize this cyclable CO 2 release chemistry under ambient conditions. We outline the key findings of our approach, discuss the latest developments from other research laboratories, detail approaches used to monitor DAC systems in situ, and highlight experimental procedures for validating its feasibility. Finally, we conclude with a summary and outlook into the immediate challenges that must be addressed in order to fully exploit this novel photochemically-driven approach to DAC solvent regeneration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DireWolf

DireWolf is an integrated micro-reactor capability being developed using an advanced multiphysics modeling and simulation capability for heat pipe-cooled micro-reactor concepts. The DireWolf application is built on INL’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) development and runtime framework and is composed of the following MOOSE- based applications as submodules, coupled together using the MOOSE MultiApps and Transfers capability and executed as a single application: Griffin (reactor physics and radiation transport), BISON (nuclear fuel performance), Grizzly (structural mechanics), Sockeye (heat pipe technology), and RELAP-7 (open-air and super-critical CO2 Brayton cycle).

Permann, Cody↗

Combustion of Metals in Reduced-Gravity and Extraterrestrial Environment

As a result of the ongoing exploration of Mars and the several unmanned and manned missions planned for the future, increased attention has been given to the use of the natural resources of the planet for rocket propellant production and energy generation. Since the atmosphere of Mars consists of approximately 95% carbon dioxide (CO2), this gas is the resource of choice to be employed for these purposes. Unfortunately, CO2 is also a final product in most combustion reactions, requiring further processing to extract useful reactants such as carbon monoxide (CO), oxygen (O2), and hydrocarbons. An exception is the use Of CO2 as an oxidizer reacting directly with metal fuel. Since many metals burn vigorously with CO2, these may be used as an energy source and as propellants for an ascent/descent vehicle in sample-collection missions on Mars. In response to NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) Enterprise to search for appropriate in-situ resource utilization techniques, this investigation will study the burning characteristics of promising metal/CO2 combinations. The use of reduced gravity is essential to eliminate the intrusive buoyant flows that plague the high-temperature metal reactions, to remove the destructive effect of gravity on the shape of molten metal samples, and to study the influence of radiative heat transfer from solid oxides undisturbed by natural convection. In studies with large metal specimens, the burning process is invariably influenced by strong convective currents that accelerate the reaction and shorten the burning times. Although these currents are nearly absent from small burning particles, the high emissivity of the flames, rapid reaction, small length scales, and intermittent explosions make the gathering of any useful information on burning rates and flame structure very difficult. This investigation has the ultimate goal of providing a careful probing of flame structure and dynamics by taking advantage of large, free-floating spherical metal samples and their corresponding long burning times available in reduced gravity. The first set of experiments has been conducted with magnesium (Mg) samples burning in the low-gravity environment generated by an aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Owing to its high adiabatic flame temperature, oxidizer/fuel ratio, and heat per unit mass of fuel, as well as its low toxicity and low ignition temperature, Mg has been identified as a promising metal fuel with CO2 as oxidizer. The experimental effort is complemented by the development of a numerical model combining gas-phase chemical kinetics and transport mechanisms.

Abbud-Madrid, A.↗

Self Configuring Digital Twin for Optimizing E-Waste Recycling

Electronic waste recycling industry needs a decision support tool for optimizing their processes to become cost competitive. We developed a software called CMAT, Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool. The aim of CMAT is to provide the e-waste recycling companies with a fully customizable decision support framework that analyzes the optimal supply chain configurations. The software optimizes the logistics operations, helps to identify the best recycling process configuration, and generates valuable insights regarding the economic performance of different categories of e-waste. The ultimate purpose of the tool is to assist the users developing a digital twin of their processes and to provide insights on questions pertinent to the e-waste recycling industry including how to increase efficiency and reduce costs, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integration of Concentrating Solar Power with High Temperature Electrolysis for Hydrogen Production: Preprint

Hydrogen (H2) has been identified as a leading sustainable contender to replace fossil fuels in transportation and electricity generation. H2 production can be achieved by concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) systems collecting thermal energy from the sun to various chemical processes for fuel production. Fuel production via solar thermal chemical processes integrated with CSP uses the full spectrum of sunlight compared with photovoltaic power conversion and stores solar energy directly and efficiently [1]. The solar fuel production can be realized by thermochemical processes (e.g., water splitting for H2 production, carbon dioxide reduction, or methane reforming) or thermal electrochemical methods (e.g., integration with solid oxide electrolysis cell). Technology development for CSP-integrated solar fuel production requires broad technological bases from solar energy collection to chemical energy conversion. H2 generated from renewable sources can be an energy carrier for a carbon-free economy. Integrating CSP with high temperature electrolysis (HTE) using solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) provides a renewable path for H2 generation. The CSP-HTE integration approach provides the benefit of thermal energy storage (TES) for continuous operation, improved capacity, and SOEC life. H2 gas has low energy density for transportation, pipeline networks are expensive, and H2 liquefaction is energy intensive. However, an alternative method for H2 distribution is to use carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and liquid hydrocarbon synthesis to convert solar energy into liquid fuels that are compatible with the existing fossil fuel infrastructure.

concentrating solar thermal power↗

Simulation of Martian surface-atmosphere interaction in a space-simulator: Technical considerations and feasibility

The Space Simulator of the German Aerospace Research Establishment at Cologne, formerly used for testing satellites, is now, since 1987, the central unit within the research sub-program 'Comet-Simulation' (KOSI). The KOSI team has investigated physical processes relevant to comets and their surfaces. As a byproduct we gained experience in sample-handling under simulated space conditions. In broadening the scope of the research activities of the DLR Institute of Space Simulation an extension to 'Laboratory-Planetology' is planned. Following the KOSI-experiments a Mars Surface-Simulation with realistic minerals and surface soil in a suited environment (temperature, pressure, and CO2-atmosphere) is foreseen as the next step. Here, our main interest is centered on thermophysical properties of the Martian surface and energy transport (and related gas transport) through the surface. These laboratory simulation activities can be related to space missions as typical pre-mission and during-the-mission support of the experiments design and operations (simulation in parallel). Post mission experiments for confirmation and interpretation of results are of great value. The physical dimensions of the Space Simulator (cylinder of about 2.5 m diameter and 5 m length) allows for testing and qualification of experimental hardware under realistic Martian conditions.

Moehlmann, D.↗

Human life support for advanced space exploration

The requirements for a human life support system for long-duration space missions are reviewed. The system design of a controlled ecological life support system is briefly described, followed by a more detailed account of the study of the conceptual design of a Lunar Based CELSS. The latter is to provide a safe, reliable, recycling lunar base life support system based on a hybrid physicochemical/biological representative technology. The most important conclusion reached by this study is that implementation of a completely recycling CELSS approach for a lunar base is not only feasible, but eminently practical. On a cumulative launch mass basis, a 4-person Lunar Base CELSS would pay for itself in approximately 2.6 years relative to a physicochemical air/water recycling system with resupply of food from the Earth. For crew sizes of 30 and 100, the breakeven point would come even sooner, after 2.1 and 1.7 years, respectively, due to the increased mass savings that can be realized with the larger plant growth units. Two other conclusions are particularly important with regard to the orientation of future research and technology development. First, the mass estimates of the Lunar Base CELSS indicate that a primary design objective in implementing this kind of system must be to minimized the mass and power requirement of the food production plant growth units, which greatly surpass those of the other air and water recycling systems. Consequently, substantial research must be directed at identifying ways to produce food more efficiently. On the other hand, detailed studies to identify the best technology options for the other subsystems should not be expected to produce dramatic reductions in either mass or power requirement of a Lunar Base CELSS. The most crucial evaluation criterion must, therefore, be the capability for functional integration of these technologies into the ultimate design of the system. Secondly, this study illustrates that existing or near-term technologies are adequate to implement a Lunar Base CELSS. There are no apparent "show-stoppers" which require the development of new technologies. However, there are several areas in which new materials and technologies could be used for a more efficient implementation of the system, e.g., by decreasing mass or power requirement and increasing recycling efficiency. These areas must be further addressed through research and development. Finally, although this study focused on the development of a Lunar Base CELSS, the same technologies and a nearly identical design would be appropriate for a Mars base. Actually, except for the distance of transportation, the implementation of a CELSS on Mars would even be easier than it would be on the Moon. The presence of atmospheric CO2 on Mars, although in low concentration, coupled with the fact that the day/night cycle on Mars is very similar to that on Earth, makes the use of light-weight, greenhouse-like structures for growing food plants even more feasible than on the Moon. There are some environmental problems, which would have to be dealt with, like dust storms and the large amount of the ultraviolet radiation incident on the planet's surface. However, the materials and methods are largely available today to develop such a life support system for a Mars base.

Review, Tutorial↗

Simulation of Long Lived Tracers Using an Improved Empirically Based Two-Dimensional Model Transport Algorithm

We have developed a new empirically-based transport algorithm for use in our GSFC two-dimensional transport and chemistry model. The new algorithm contains planetary wave statistics, and parameterizations to account for the effects due to gravity waves and equatorial Kelvin waves. As such, this scheme utilizes significantly more information compared to our previous algorithm which was based only on zonal mean temperatures and heating rates. The new model transport captures much of the qualitative structure and seasonal variability observed in long lived tracers, such as: isolation of the tropics and the southern hemisphere winter polar vortex; the well mixed surf-zone region of the winter sub-tropics and mid-latitudes; the latitudinal and seasonal variations of total ozone; and the seasonal variations of mesospheric H2O. The model also indicates a double peaked structure in methane associated with the semiannual oscillation in the tropical upper stratosphere. This feature is similar in phase but is significantly weaker in amplitude compared to the observations. The model simulations of carbon-14 and strontium-90 are in good agreement with observations, both in simulating the peak in mixing ratio at 20-25 km, and the decrease with altitude in mixing ratio above 25 km. We also find mostly good agreement between modeled and observed age of air determined from SF6 outside of the northern hemisphere polar vortex. However, observations inside the vortex reveal significantly older air compared to the model. This is consistent with the model deficiencies in simulating CH4 in the northern hemisphere winter high latitudes and illustrates the limitations of the current climatological zonal mean model formulation. The propagation of seasonal signals in water vapor and CO2 in the lower stratosphere showed general agreement in phase, and the model qualitatively captured the observed amplitude decrease in CO2 from the tropics to midlatitudes. However, the simulated seasonal amplitudes were attenuated too rapidly with altitude in the tropics. Overall, the simulations with the new transport formulation are in substantially better agreement with observations compared with our previous model transport.

Fleming, E. L.↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗