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At least 415 records · Page 23

Modeling Stochastic Variability in Multiband Time-series Data

In preparation for the era of time-domain astronomy with upcoming large-scale surveys, we propose a state-space representation of a multivariate damped random walk process as a tool to analyze irregularly-spaced multifilter light curves with heteroscedastic measurement errors. We adopt a computationally efficient and scalable Kalman filtering approach to evaluate the likelihood function, leading to maximum O(k 3 n) complexity, where k is the number of available bands and n is the number of unique observation times across the k bands. This is a significant computational advantage over a commonly used univariate Gaussian process that can stack up all multiband light curves in one vector with maximum O(k 3 n 3 ) complexity. Using such efficient likelihood computation, we provide both maximum likelihood estimates and Bayesian posterior samples of the model parameters. Three numerical illustrations are presented: (i) analyzing simulated five-band light curves for a comparison with independent single-band fits; (ii) analyzing five-band light curves of a quasar obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 to estimate short-term variability and timescale; (iii) analyzing gravitationally lensed g- and r-band light curves of Q0957+561 to infer the time delay. Two R packages, Rdrw and timedelay, are publicly available to fit the proposed models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Chemical Compositions of Red Giant Stars from Habitable Zone Planet Finder Spectroscopy

We have used the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) to gather high-resolution, high signal-to-noise near-infrared spectra of 13 field red horizontal branch (RHB) stars, one open cluster giant, and one very metal-poor halo red giant. The HPF spectra cover the 0.81–1.28 μm wavelength range of the zyJ bands, partially filling the gap between the optical (0.4–1.0 μm) and infrared (1.5–2.4 μm) spectra already available for the program stars. We derive abundances of 17 species from LTE-based computations involving equivalent widths and spectrum syntheses, and estimate abundance corrections for the species that are most affected by departures from LTE in RHB stars. Generally good agreement is found between HPF-based metallicities and abundance ratios and those from the optical and infrared spectral regions. Light element transitions dominate the HPF spectra of these red giants, and HPF data can be used to derive abundances from species with poor or no representation in optical spectra (e.g., C i, P i, S i, K i). Attention is drawn to the HPF abundances in two field solar-metallicity RHB stars of special interest: one with an extreme carbon isotope ratio, and one with a rare, very large lithium content. The latter star is unique in our sample in exhibiting very strong He i 10830 Å absorption. The abundances of the open cluster giant concur with those derived from other wavelength regions. Detections of C i and S i in HD 122563 are reported, yielding the lowest metallicity determination of [S/Fe] from more than one multiplet.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Chemical Complexity of Phosphorous-bearing Species in Various Regions of the Interstellar Medium

Phosphorus-related species are not known to be as omnipresent in space as hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur-bearing species. Astronomers spotted very few P-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium and circumstellar envelopes. Limited discovery of the P-bearing species imposes severe constraints in modeling the P-chemistry. In this paper, we carry out extensive chemical models to follow the fate of P-bearing species in diffuse clouds, photon-dominated or photodissociation regions (PDRs), and hot cores/corinos. We notice a curious correlation between the abundances of PO and PN and atomic nitrogen. Since N atoms are more abundant in diffuse clouds and PDRs than in the hot core/corino region, PO/PN reflects <1 in diffuse clouds, ≪1 in PDRs, and >1 in the late warm-up evolutionary stage of the hot core/corino regions. During the end of the post-warm-up stage, we obtain PO/PN > 1 for hot core and <1 for its low-mass analog. We employ a radiative transfer model to investigate the transitions of some of the P-bearing species in diffuse cloud and hot core regions and estimate the line profiles. Our study estimates the required integration time to observe these transitions with ground-based and space-based telescopes. We also carry out quantum chemical computation of the infrared features of PH{sub 3}, along with various impurities. We notice that SO{sub 2} overlaps with the PH{sub 3} bending-scissoring modes around ∼1000–1100 cm{sup −1}. We also find that the presence of CO{sub 2} can strongly influence the intensity of the stretching modes around ∼2400 cm{sup −1} of PH{sub 3}.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Nonthermal Ionization of Kilonova Ejecta: Observable Impacts

The characteristic rapid rise and decline at optical wavelengths of a kilonova is the product of the low ejecta mass (≲0.05 M ⊙ ) and high ejecta velocity (≳0.1c). We show that, even at very early times (≲2 days), regions of ejecta fall below critical density and temperature thresholds at which nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) effects become important. Here, we present an approximate method for calculating the ionization state of the ejecta that accounts for the NLTE impact of high-energy electrons produced in the beta decay of freshly synthesized r-process elements. We find that incorporating ionization from high-energy electrons produces an “inverted” and “blended” ionization structure, where the most highly ionized species are located in the fastest moving homologous ejecta, and multiple ionization states coexist. In radiation transport calculations, the higher degree of ionization reduces line blanketing in optical bands, leading to improved agreement with the light-curve properties of AT 2017gfo, such as the duration, decay rates, brightness, and colors. Our quasi-NLTE implementation helps to alleviate tensions in kilonova modeling: for high-velocity (∼0.3 c) ejecta components, our models require less mass for a given peak brightness in optical bands, by as much as a factor of 3; our models can explain the presence of observed features associated to Sr II, W III, Se III, and Te III under conditions where LTE models would predict only neutral species; and we naturally predict the coexistence of species like Sr II and Ce III without the need for fine-tuning of the ejecta properties.

High energy astrophysics↗

Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Neutral band gap of carbon by quantum Monte Carlo methods

We present a method of calculating the energy gap of a charge-neutral excitation using only ground-state calculations. We report Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of Γ→ Γ and Γ → X particle-hole excitation energies in diamond carbon. We analyze the finite-size effect and find the same 1/L decay rate as that in a charged excitation, where L is the linear extension of the supercell. This slow decay is attributed to the delocalized nature of the excitation in supercells too small to accommodate excitonic binding effects. At larger system sizes, the apparent 1/L decay crosses over to a 1/L 3 behavior. Estimation of the scale of exciton binding can be used to correct finite-size effects of neutral gaps.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electromagnetic Response of Superconducting RF Cavities

Recently reported anomalies in frequency shift of order δƒ ~ 0.1–10 kHz for Niobium SRF cavities in a narrow temperature region near T c ≃ 9 K are sensitive to the surface preparation and Nitrogen doping. We developed methods for calculating the surface current response of Nb SRF cavities, as well as the resonant frequency shift and quality factor, as functions of temperature, frequency and disorder based on the Keldysh formulation of the theory for nonequilibrium superconductivity coupled with Maxwell’s theory and boundary conditions for the response functions and electromagnetic field. We show that the anomaly is sensitive to impurity disorder. Our results for the anomaly in the frequency shift are in good agreement with experimental results for Nb with an anisotropic gap on the Fermi surface and inhomogeneous non-magnetic disorder. We also show that the quality factor as a function of the impurity scattering rate is maximum for in SRF cavities with intermediate disorder, ℏ/τΔ~O(1) with the maximum $Q$ decreasing with increasing frequency.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

12-gene prognostic signature for breast cancer survival

A biomarker panel of 12 genes based on expression levels. Methods for calculating prognostic scores and patient ranking based on their score and divided into two equal sized cohorts. Kaplan-Meier analysis and a log-rank test were used to determine differences in survival.

Snijders, Antoine M.↗

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) should be less than 189 ppm, where ΔT is the temperature excursion and Δα is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (ΔT ∙ Δα) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Guidelines for predicting stress in cemented doublets undergoing temperature change

This work explores quick predictive methods for calculating potentially risky stresses and deflections in cemented doublets experiencing temperature change that agree well with finite element analysis. There are three failure modes of interest: cohesive failure of the adhesive, delamination (surface bond failure or debonding), and glass fracture. Adhesive theory, confirmed by finite element analysis, predicts stress singularities that complicate interpretation of the stress calculations. The presence of a stress singularity indicates the breakdown of linear elastic assumptions, but damage initiation and stress singularities are related. The authors find that geometry details near a bond edge can exacerbate or minimize damage initiation and stress concentrations. Because the interpretation of the stress results is complicated, the authors investigated predicted stresses in doublets that have been successfully tested between -40 and 85 °C. This study found that the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) should be less than 189 ppm, where ∆T is the temperature excursion and ∆α is the difference in glass coefficient of thermal expansion. If the product (∆T ∙ ∆α) is equal to or greater than 189 ppm, further analysis and testing is warranted. But the authors also show that the fabrication process can significantly influence stress failure, particularly with large diameter doublets

42 ENGINEERING↗

Methods, systems, and apparatuses for calculating global fluence for neutron and photon monte carlo transport using expected value estimators

Global fluence estimators may be calculated on accelerators and processors for neutron and photon Monte Carlo transport. Monte Carlo random walk simulation may be performed on the processors and the calculation of a Volumetric-Ray-Casting (VRC) estimator may be offloaded to the accelerators. The VRC estimator may modify an expected-value estimator to extend a pseudo-particle ray along the direction of the emitted particle from source and collision event through not only the event volume, but also through all volumes that describe the problem geometry. Additionally, many pseudo-particle rays may be sampled per event, rather than just a single pseudo-particle ray per event, in order to provide more complete angular coverage.

Sweezy, Jeremy Ed↗

Energy deposition model in STREAM with photon transport

Recent efforts have been taken to implement a photon transport module for the neutron transport analysis code STREAM, considering the explicit photon energy distribution in the problem instead of using the locally deposition assumption as employed in previous STREAM versions. The current energy release model in STREAM based on the On-the-fly energy released per fission model is modified accordingly to account for the photon energy deposition computed explicitly by this module. The impacts of the modified energy release model with photon transport in STREAM on the power distribution, fuel temperature and other core parameters during depletion with feedback calculations are studied on several problems from the VERA benchmark suit. Overall, the photon transport provides a better power map for depletion and feedback calculations, especially when strong gamma emitters are present. The fuel temperature, in general, is decreased when the photon transport is employed because fission gammas have been transported out of their birthplace. The new energy deposition model in STREAM with photon transport indicates that gamma energy accounts for about 9.7% of the total energy released in a fresh VERA5 2D core and rises to 10.5% at the End of Cycle. Around 2.5% of the total energy released will be deposited in the coolant in this 2D core. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS)

To achieve the ambitious net-zero emission goal by 2050, it is vital to explore practical approaches for removing carbon dioxide from the air. One promising method is Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). BiCRS combines the natural ability of plants to convert carbon dioxide into biomass with human engineering to store the biomass, or derived products (char), belowground where it won't decompose. By securely storing these materials underground, we can trap the carbon dioxide absorbed by the plants during their growth, thus aiding in carbon removal from the atmosphere. BiCRS not only addresses carbon emissions but also has co-benefits such as wildfire risk reduction by utilizing forest residues. It is essential to establish best practices to ensure accurate measurements of net carbon dioxide removed by BiCRS for policymakers, businesses and communities. Presently, there is a lack of consistent methods for calculating these removals, considering variables like plant type, storage conditions, and conditions for converting the biomass to other products for storage like char. This project develops guidelines for monitoring and reporting BiCRS activities, offering a dependable framework for measuring carbon dioxide removal, enabling adoption of transparent BiCRS approaches for making significant contributions to reducing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

biomass carbon removal and storage↗

Evaluation of Maximum Allowable Working Pressure and Svensson Burst Pressure Recommended in API 579-1 2021 Edition

ABSTRACT API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 2021 Edition provides the minimum wall thickness, the maximum allowable working pressure (MAWP), and the membrane stress equations for thin and thick-walled cylindrical shells subject to internal pressure in Section 2C.3.3.1 of Appendix 2C – Thickness, MAWP, and Stress Equations for an FFS Assessment. The minimum wall thickness and MAWP are determined using the hoop stress and the Tresca yield criterion. Section 2C.7 – Estimation of Burst Pressure newly added the Svensson method for calculating burst pressure of cylindrical shells under internal pressure, where the plastic yielding is characterized by the von Mises yield criterion. For thin-walled cylinders, the von Mises flow solution of burst pressure in Equation (2C.179) was recommended. For thick-walled cylinders, an implicit burst pressure solution in an integral equation (2C.176) was recommended. But this integral equation is inconvenient to use in practice. It is well known that the classic plasticity theory includes the Tresca and von Mises yield criteria, with the Tresca criterion predicting a lower bound solution and the von Mises criteria predicting an upper bound solution. In addition, the present author developed an average shear stress yield criterion that can determine more accurate limit and burst pressures for thin and thick-walled cylinders. This work uses these three yield criteria to evaluate the minimum required wall thickness, MAWP and Svensson burst pressure recommended in the API 579 code.

burst pressure↗

Status of the MARS code

This report describes major features of the most recent version of the MARS code as well as ongoing developments. The list of features includes various options for geometry models, a beam line builder based on MADX code, import of geometry models in GDML format, use of structured and unstructured meshes for scoring purposes, an update to the recent TENDL library for a number of projectiles at low energies (up to 250 MeV), and a recently implemented method to calculate spatial distribution of residual dose in a single computer run without an intermediate source. Examples of the code application to various projects are presented as well.

Rakhno, Igor [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000265828058)↗

Efficient Calculation of NMR Shielding Constants Using Composite Method Approximations and Locally Dense Basis Sets

This paper presents a systematic study of applying composite method approximations with locally dense basis sets (LDBS) to efficiently calculate NMR shielding constants in small and medium-sized molecules. The pcSseg-n series of basis sets are shown to have similar accuracy to the pcS-n series when n ≥ 1 and can slightly reduce computational costs. We identify two different LDBS partition schemes that perform very effectively for density functional calculations. Here, we select a large subset of the recent NS372 database containing 290 H, C, N, and O shielding values evaluated by reference methods on 106 molecules to carefully assess methods of the high, medium, and low computational costs to make practical recommendations. Our assessment covers conventional electronic structure methods (density functional theory and wave function) with global basis calculations, as well as their use in one of the satisfactory LDBS approaches, and a range of composite approaches, also with and without LDBS. Altogether 99 methods are evaluated. On this basis, we recommend different methods to reach three different levels of accuracy and time requirements across the four nuclei considered.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗