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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 415 records · Page 23

Observational Evidence for Cosmological Coupling of Black Holes and its Implications for an Astrophysical Source of Dark Energy

Observations have found black holes spanning 10 orders of magnitude in mass across most of cosmic history. The Kerr black hole solution is, however, provisional as its behavior at infinity is incompatible with an expanding universe. Black hole models with realistic behavior at infinity predict that the gravitating mass of a black hole can increase with the expansion of the universe independently of accretion or mergers, in a manner that depends on the black hole's interior solution. We test this prediction by considering the growth of supermassive black holes in elliptical galaxies over 0 < z ≲ 2.5. We find evidence for cosmologically coupled mass growth among these black holes, with zero cosmological coupling excluded at 99.98% confidence. The redshift dependence of the mass growth implies that, at z ≲ 7, black holes contribute an effectively constant cosmological energy density to Friedmann's equations. The continuity equation then requires that black holes contribute cosmologically as vacuum energy. We further show that black hole production from the cosmic star formation history gives the value of Ω Λ measured by Planck while being consistent with constraints from massive compact halo objects. We thus propose that stellar remnant black holes are the astrophysical origin of dark energy, explaining the onset of accelerating expansion at z ~ 0.7.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Blending Behavioral Science and Physics-Based Models Inform Equitable Decarbonization Pathways in the US Housing Stock: Preprint

A just energy transition is an imperative of the Biden-Harris Administration, emphasizing the equitable distribution of benefits through energy-efficient and decarbonizing household technologies. Understanding the factors that increase a household's willingness to adopt these technologies helps policymakers implement more targeted and effective approaches. Our research addresses this by blending 550,000 housing stock types and energy simulation data with a nationally representative survey on residential technology adoption and decision-making (n=10,000). We identify energy equity gaps across tenure and income, highlighting disparities in energy burdens and insecurity. Findings show that households with prior modification experience are more willing to renovate, suggesting that small-scale retrofit programs could foster greater willingness. Energy secure but burdened homeowners are least willing to modify, highlighting the need to consider energy bill perceptions in policy design. Nearly half of US households that are energy burdened also face energy insecurity, with a significant gap in assistance for low-income households. We emphasize the need to understand household perceptions to improve policy. This research underscores the importance of understanding household behaviors to improve policy effectiveness, offering actionable insights for policymakers to promote equitable housing upgrades and advance a decarbonized future.

behavioral science↗

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Impacts of Material Properties on Oscillatory Neuron Behavior

In this study, neuromorphic computing, which mimics the functions of biological brains, offers improvements in both latency and energy efficiency over typical von Neumann computing architectures. Spiking neural networks can be especially power-efficient because they encode information temporally and can use more sparse electrical inputs. Here, we study the design of volatile memristors (variable resistors with memory) for neuronal devices, with particular consideration toward the feasibility of all-on-chip oscillation using built-in capacitance. We use circuit simulations to model the behavior of oscillator neurons with a range of realistic material properties. We find that energy inputs increase with insulating-phase resistivity, thermal conductivity, and device aspect ratio. However, we also find that the minimum capacitance needed for oscillation decreases with increasing insulating-phase resistivity, which opposes the constraints for power efficiency. Based on published data on NbO 2 , VO 2 , and EuNiO 3 , we find that existing materials can be engineered for all-on-chip spiking using their parasitic capacitance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neural Scaling Laws for Jet Generation

Recently observed empirical scaling laws describe the performance of foundation-type models as three independent key quantities -- dataset size, compute, and model parameters -- are modified. Extracting these scaling laws informs the training of large complex models for which the tuning of hyperparameters in traditional ways is not feasible. This work for the first time explores if scaling laws can also be observed for the task of particle jet generation -- both relevant as a pre-training objective for foundation models and as in-situ simulation by itself. We indeed replicate the key logarithmic scaling law behavior for model-size scaling. Beyond studying the next token prediction validation loss of the generative model, we also study the sliced Wasserstein distance of five physical quantities that are not immediately available to the model during training. Our study shows that this quantity is monotonically related to the next token prediction validation loss, meaning that this loss is indeed a good proxy for the physics performance. For the scaling with dataset size and compute, we observe substantially weaker scaling behavior of both the loss and the sliced Wasserstein distance. We analyze this behavior by introducing the concept of a learnable window, and argue that autoregressive next token prediction on jet constituents exhibits comparatively rapid saturation relative to language-model studies. We discuss possible origins of this behavior, including the stochastic nature of QCD radiation and differences between generative and supervised learning tasks in collider physics.

Amram, Oz [Fermilab]↗

Steady Laminar Flame for 1-Step Thermal Decomposition Model of PBX 9501

We have recently developed a new 1-step thermal decomposition model of PBX 9501 high explosive. In this report, we examine the behavior of the model in 1-D steady laminar flame calculations. In particular, the dependencies of the steady laminar flame velocity on initial pressure, thermal conductivies and parameters of the thermal decomposition model are investigated. The results of our numerical calculations are compared to available experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Streamlining Ocean Dynamics Modeling with Fourier Neural Operators: A Multiobjective Hyperparameter and Architecture Optimization Approach

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage DeepHyper’s advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization, streamlining the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The numerical experiments show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNO in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Full-sky Models of Galactic Microwave Emission and Polarization at Subarcminute Scales for the Python Sky Model

Polarized foreground emission from the Galaxy is one of the biggest challenges facing current and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments. We develop new models of polarized Galactic dust and synchrotron emission at CMB frequencies that draw on the latest observational constraints; that employ the “polarization fraction tensor” framework to couple intensity and polarization in a physically motivated way; and that allow for stochastic realizations of small-scale structure at subarcminute angular scales currently unconstrained by full-sky data. We implement these models into the publicly available Python Sky Model (PySM) software and additionally provide PySM interfaces to select models of dust and CO emission from the literature. We characterize the behavior of each model by quantitatively comparing it to observational constraints in both maps and power spectra, demonstrating an overall improvement over previous PySM models. Finally, we synthesize models of the various Galactic foreground components into a coherent suite of three plausible microwave skies that span a range of astrophysical complexity allowed by current data. Author contributions to this paper can be found at the end of this work.

Group, The Pan-Experiment Galactic Science↗

Implementation of a Drift-Flux Model in SAM for Modeling of Passively Transported GAS in Molten Salt Reactors

The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is further developing the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) system thermal hydraulics (T/H) code, System Analysis Module (SAM), to include modeling of molten salt reactor (MSR) designs. MSR designs in which the fuel is dissolved in the salt coolant poses unique modeling and simulation (M&S) challenges because fission products—some of which will be noncondensable gasses—travel with the coolant, thus allowing for deposition and interaction throughout the entire system flow loop. This behavior must be modeled to successfully understand MSR system behavior during normal and off-normal operation events. In past work, SAM has been extended to include a passive species transport capability for modeling of MSR fission products that travel with the salt coolant. This work extends the model to include a drift-flux model to capture the tendency of the gas phase to move at a different velocity than the bulk liquid. Additional constitutive models have also been added for calculation of gas volume fraction, bubble radius, and interfacial area, which will be important for calculation of species phase migration in future coupling activities. Testing has been performed to ensure that the new model agrees with expected values for several simple models, but additional future work will be required to test the model for more complex geometries that will be needed for full-scale MSR simulations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Photoionization of C 60 at high energies

Calculations of the photoionization cross section of C60 including all valence and core subshells have been carried out for photon energies up to 1 keV using density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT (TDDFT) within the framework of a fully molecular model. The high-energy valence subshell cross sections behave rather differently than the results from model potentials where the cross section falls far too rapidly with energy. This unphysical behavior of the model calculations is traced to smearing out of the carbon nuclei in the model potentials which makes it difficult for momentum to be conserved at the higher energies. Comparison with 60 times carbon atomic cross section sheds light on similarities and differences. The high energy behavior of individual valence cross sections reflects the amount of C 2s/2p mixing in the molecular orbitals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A numerical-homogenization based phase-field fracture modeling of linear elastic heterogeneous porous media

Most porous media, such as geomaterials and biomaterials are highly heterogeneous in nature, and they contain large variations of microscopic pore structures, such as pore sizes, pore distribution, and pore shapes. The oscillation of microscopic structures is a substantial challenge in theoretical characterization and is usually ignored in continuous modeling. However, mechanical behavior of porous media such as deformation and failure, are essentially impacted by the microscopic heterogeneity which needs to be considered in modeling a porous media. Here, this research proposes a numerical modeling framework with a capability to investigate the effect of microscopic heterogeneity on the macroscopic fracture behavior in porous media by using a numerical homogenization technique, combined with the phase-field fracture modeling method. This numerical modeling strategy computes a homogenized elasticity tensor based on microscopic heterogeneous pore structures heterogenous porous domain by solving boundary value problems at microscopic domain. The strain energy and subsequent propagation of macroscopic fractures will be updated using homogenized stiffness information. Using this numerical scheme, the microscopic pore structure’s impact on the fracture behavior through the homogenized elastic tensor will be taken into account. This multiscale technique is benchmarked against classical problems. Finally, the results highlight the importance of the underlying pore structure and reveal that both fracture strength and propagation path can be influenced by the microscopic heterogeneity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical study of the chemo-mechanical behavior of FEBEX bentonite in nuclear waste disposal based on the Barcelona expansive model

Experimental studies show that compacted bentonite used as a backfill material for nuclear waste repository experiences strong coupling between chemical and mechanical processes. Here, we use a dual-structure expansive soil model, referred to as the Barcelona Expansive Model (BExM), to predict the behavior of bentonite buffer in subsurface emplacement tunnels for high-level radioactive waste. After emplacement, the bentonite is subjected to complex and coupled Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC) processes. The BExM constitutive model is implemented in a multi-phase reactive transport and geomechanics simulator, TOUGHREACT-FLAC3D, and the model is verified with one benchmark test on FEBEX bentonite. We utilize a one-way Chemo-Mechanical (C-M) coupling approach, in which chemical changes affect the mechanical behavior of bentonite through the BExM linked with the evolution of mass fraction of smectite, exchangeable cation concentration, and ionic strength via osmotic suction. The parameters of the new coupled model for FEBEX bentonite are calibrated against a series of laboratory experiments with various salinity solutions. Finally, coupled THMC modeling is conducted for a generic argillite repository with bentonite buffer under high temperature, focusing on the long-term chemical change and its effect on the mechanical process.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Developing a Distributed Trust Model for Distributed Energy Resources

Electric power system operators can manage distribution system reliability by coordinating end customer usage of distributed energy resources. The end customers in this regard are Service Provisioning Customers, who provide their energy resources to a Grid Service Provider, which in turn dispatches large aggregations of distributed energy resources to provide reliable service to the power system.The security of this system relies upon information protection mechanisms, as described in IEEE 2030.5. However, in addition to preventive security measures, a monitoring function is required to ensure trustworthiness. Trust models are a method to detect and respond to both expected and unexpected behavior. Different trust models are required for various types and characteristics of each situation. This paper will describe the topics that must be considered when developing a trust model as it applies to distributed energy resources. The major contribution of this paper is the creation and application of a Distributed Trust Model applied to distributed energy resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗