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At least 415 records · Page 23

Anticipatory Eye Movements in Interleaving Templates of Human Behavior

Performance modeling has been made easier by architectures which package psychological theory for reuse at useful levels of abstraction. CPM-GOMS uses templates of behavior to package at a task level (e.g., mouse move-click, typing) predictions of lower-level cognitive, perceptual, and motor resource use. CPM-GOMS also has a theory for interleaving resource use between templates. One example of interleaving is anticipatory eye movements. This paper describes the use of ACT-Stitch, a framework for translating CPM-GOMS templates and interleaving theory into ACT-R, to model anticipatory eye movements in skilled behavior. The anticipatory eye movements explain performance in a well-practiced perceptual/motor task, and the interleaving theory is supported with results from an eye-tracking experiment.

Matessa, Michael↗

Modeling of the flexural behavior of ceramic-matrix composites

This paper examines the effects of matrix cracking and fiber breakage on the flexural behavior of ceramic composite beams. A model has been proposed to represent the damage evolution of the beam, of which the matrix fracture strain is smaller than that of the fibers. Close form solutions of the critical loads for the initiation of matrix cracking and fiber breakage in the tension side of the beam have been found. The effects of thermal residual stresses and fiber/matrix debonding have been taken into account. The initial deviation of the load-deflection curve from linearity is due to matrix cracking, while fiber breakages are responsible for the drop in the load carrying capacity of the beam. The proportional limit as well as the nonlinear behavior of the beam deflection have been identified. The growth of the damaged zone has also been predicted. A three-point bending case is given as a numerical example.

Kuo, Wen-Shyong↗

Integrated U.S. nationwide corridor charging infrastructure planning for mass electrification of inter-city trips

This study introduces an integrated modeling framework to evaluate long-term national corridor charging infrastructure requirements in the United States to support the growing inter-city charging demand with the rapid growth in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market. The core model is an optimization model that considers spatial and temporal dimensions and models heterogeneous behaviors between travelers. The model also introduces the travelers’ inconvenience cost function by linking travelers’ acceptance of the charging infrastructure with exogenous technology and social factors. The inconvenience cost function simulates mode choice between BEVs and alternative modes by heterogenous travelers. We applied the framework to assess the inter-regional charging infrastructure requirements for the entire U.S. mainland interstate highway network. We evaluated impacts on the infrastructure design and its public acceptance with changes in policy, technology, and demographic characteristics, and we also quantified the importance of modeling full-scale inter-regional charging infrastructure requirements compared to the conventional regional level analyses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Game Theory↗

Insights on Simulating Summer Warming of the Great Lakes: Understanding the Behavior of a Newly Developed Coupled Lake-Atmosphere Modeling System

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system and regulate the climate of the Great Lakes region, which has been increasingly experiencing climatic, hydrological, and ecological changes. An accurate mechanistic representation of the Great Lakes thermal structure in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is paramount to studying the climate of this region. Currently, RCMs have primarily represented the Great Lakes through coupled one-dimensional (1D) column lake models; this approach works well for small inland lakes but is unable to resolve the realistic hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes and leads to inaccurate representations of lake surface temperature (LST) that influence regional climate and weather patterns. This work overcomes this limitation by developing a fully two-way coupled modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model. The coupled model system resolves the interactive physical processes between the atmosphere, lake, and surrounding watersheds; and validated against a range of observational data. The model is then used to investigate the potential impacts of lake-atmosphere coupling on the simulated summer LST of Lake Superior. By evaluating the difference between our two-way coupled modeling system and our observation-driven modeling system, we find that coupled-lake atmosphere dynamics can lead to a higher LST during June-September through higher net surface heat flux entering the lake in June and July and a lower net surface heat flux entering the lake in August and September. The unstratified water in June distributes the entering surface heat flux throughout the water column leading to a minor LST increase, while the stratified waters of July create a conducive thermal structure for the water surface to warm rapidly under the higher incoming surface heat flux. This research provides insight into the coupled modeling system behavior, which is critical for enhancing our predictive understanding of the Great Lakes climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Jones, D. H.↗

Adaptive Modeling of the International Space Station Electrical Power System

Software simulations provide NASA engineers the ability to experiment with spacecraft systems in a computer-imitated environment. Engineers currently develop software models that encapsulate spacecraft system behavior. These models can be inaccurate due to invalid assumptions, erroneous operation, or system evolution. Increasing accuracy requires manual calibration and domain-specific knowledge. This thesis presents a method for automatically learning system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques are applied to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). We also explore a knowledge fusion approach that uses traditional engineered EPS models to supplement the learned models. We observed that these engineered EPS models provide useful background knowledge to reduce predictive error spikes when confronted with making predictions in situations that are quite different from the training scenarios used when learning the model. Evaluations using ISS sensor data and existing EPS models demonstrate the success of the adaptive approach. Our experimental results show that adaptive modeling provides reductions in model error anywhere from 80% to 96% over these existing models. Final discussions include impending use of adaptive modeling technology for ISS mission operations and the need for adaptive modeling in future NASA lunar and Martian exploration.

Thomas, Justin Ray↗

Modeling Off-Nominal Behavior in SysML

Specification and development of fault management functionality in systems is performed in an ad hoc way - more of an art than a science. Improvements to system reliability, availability, safety and resilience will be limited without infusion of additional formality into the practice of fault management. Key to the formalization of fault management is a precise representation of off-nominal behavior. Using the upcoming Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission for source material, we have modeled the off-nominal behavior of the SMAP system during its initial spin-up activity, using the System Modeling Language (SysML). In the course of developing these models, we have developed generic patterns for capturing off-nominal behavior in SysML. We show how these patterns provide useful ways of reasoning about the system (e.g., checking for completeness and effectiveness) and allow the automatic generation of typical artifacts (e.g., success trees and FMECAs) used in system analyses.

fault protection↗

Temperature anisotropy instabilities driven by Whang's ion model

The behavior of four temperature anisotropy instabilities in a single-component space plasma is investigated theoretically using the solar wind model (i.e., heat flux modified non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions) proposed by Whang (1972). The linear dispersion properties are studied in an infinite Vlasov plasma where the proton distribution is assumed to consist of one warm slow-speed component and where the electron background is isotropic. It is shown that the fire hose, mirror, and Harris instability do not occur under these conditions, and that only the ion cyclotron instability is of importance in Whang's ion model. Growth rates are shown to have values between 0.021 and 0.00011. Increasing temperature anisotropy causes the range frequencies where wave particle interaction occurs to be shifted toward the ion gyrofrequency.

Leubner, M. P.↗

Numerical modelling of cryogenic propellant behavior in low-G

A partial survey is presented of recent research, sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, into the computational modelling of cryogenic propellant behavior in a low gravity environment. This presentation is intended to provide insight into some of the specific problems being studied and into how these studies are part of an integrated plan to develop predictive capabilities. A brief description of the computational models developed to analyze jet induced mixing in cryogenic propellant tankage is presented along with representative results. Similar information is presented for a recent examination of on-orbit self-pressurization. A study of propellant reorientation has recently been initiated and preliminary results are included. The presentation concludes with a list of ongoing efforts and projected goals.

Hochstein, John I.↗

New Integrated Modeling Capabilities: MIDAS' Recent Behavioral Enhancements

The Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is an integrated human performance modeling software tool that is based on mechanisms that underlie and cause human behavior. A PC-Windows version of MIDAS has been created that integrates the anthropometric character "Jack (TM)" with MIDAS' validated perceptual and attention mechanisms. MIDAS now models multiple simulated humans engaging in goal-related behaviors. New capabilities include the ability to predict situations in which errors and/or performance decrements are likely due to a variety of factors including concurrent workload and performance influencing factors (PIFs). This paper describes a new model that predicts the effects of microgravity on a mission specialist's performance, and its first application to simulating the task of conducting a Life Sciences experiment in space according to a sequential or parallel schedule of performance.

Gore, Brian F.↗

High-Fidelity Modeling of Curbside Driving Behavior in SUMO: Preprint

Recent advances in mobility technologies have considerably increased the need for curbside use and congestion at curb-lanes. At airports and in dense urban centers, the growing adoption of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, has led to an increase in curbside traffic due to the reduction in the use public transit and other shared modes. In dense city areas, the curbside demand and congestion were further augmented by the growing use of e-commerce, which requires home-delivery of goods. To model vehicles' curbside interactions realistically, there is a need for high-fidelity simulation models that can represent the complex interplay of vehicles as they complete pick-up or drop-off trips. Vehicles' curbside behaviors are usually not modeled with high-fidelity in microscopic simulators such Simulation of Urban of Mobility (SUMO). This paper presents such a high-resolution model for vehicle curbside behavior in SUMO, using SUMO's Traci interface. Simulations results demonstrate that the improved curbside behavior captures vehicles' curbside maneuvering more accurately than the default SUMO curbside model, and increases the curbside utilization and capacity.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Generating synthetic occupants for use in building performance simulation

Occupant behaviour simulation frameworks can employ synthetic populations to characterize occupancy and behavioural patterns in buildings based on observed demographic data at a certain geographical location. For buildings, very few synthetic occupant populations have been generated. This paper uses a Bayesian Networks (BN) structural learning approach to synthesize populations of occupants in a multi-family housing case study. Two additional cases of office occupants and senior housing residents are considered as a cross-case comparison. Furthermore, we draw upon the extended version of drivers-needs-actions-systems (DNAS) framework to guide the selection of variables and data imputation. Our results show that the BN approach is powerful in learning the structure of data sets. The synthetic data sets successfully match the joint distributions of the underlying combined data sets. Experiments on the multi-family housing particularly show better performance than the office and senior housing cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Longwave infrared observation of urban landscapes

An investigation is conducted regarding the feasibility to develop improved methods for the identification and analysis of urban landscapes on the basis of a utilization of longwave infrared observations. Attention is given to landscape thermal behavior, urban thermal properties, modeled thermal behavior of pavements and buildings, and observed urban landscape thermal emissions. The differential thermal behavior of buildings, pavements, and natural areas within urban landscapes is found to suggest that integrated multispectral solar radiant reflectance and terrestrial radiant emissions data will significantly increase potentials for analyzing urban landscapes. In particular, daytime satellite observations of the considered type should permit better identification of urban areas and an analysis of the density of buildings and pavements within urban areas. This capability should enhance the utility of satellite remote sensor data in urban applications.

Goward, S. N.↗

Testing Strategies for Model-Based Development

This report presents an approach for testing artifacts generated in a model-based development process. This approach divides the traditional testing process into two parts: requirements-based testing (validation testing) which determines whether the model implements the high-level requirements and model-based testing (conformance testing) which determines whether the code generated from a model is behaviorally equivalent to the model. The goals of the two processes differ significantly and this report explores suitable testing metrics and automation strategies for each. To support requirements-based testing, we define novel objective requirements coverage metrics similar to existing specification and code coverage metrics. For model-based testing, we briefly describe automation strategies and examine the fault-finding capability of different structural coverage metrics using tests automatically generated from the model.

Heimdahl, Mats P. E.↗