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A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States.

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation System. The fundamental fire intensity algorithms in these systems require surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model surface fire behavior. Canopy base height, stand height, and canopy bulk density are required in addition to surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover to model crown fire activity. Several surface fuel and canopy classification efforts have used various remote sensing and ecological relationships as core methods to develop the spatial layers. All of these methods depend upon consistent and temporally constant interpretations of crown attributes and their ecological conditions to estimate surface fuel conditions. This study evaluates modeled fire behavior for an 80,000 ha tract of land in the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern US using three different data sources. The Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) was used to build fuelbeds from intensive field sampling of 629 plots. Custom fire behavior fuel models were derived from these fuelbeds. LANDFIRE developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy attributes for the US using satellite imagery informed by field data. The Southern Wildfire Risk Assessment (SWRA) developed surface fire behavior fuel models and canopy cover for the southeastern US using satellite imagery. Differences in modeled fire behavior, data development, and data utility are summarized to assist in determining which data source may be most applicable for various land management activities and required analyses. Characterizing fire behavior under different fuel relationships provides insights for natural ecological processes, management strategies for fire mitigation, and positive and negative features of different modeling systems. A comparison of flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, and burn probabilities modeled with FlamMap shows some similar patterns across the landscape from all three data sources, but there are potentially important differences. All data sources showed an expected range of fire behavior. Average flame lengths ranged between 1 and 1.4 m. Rate of spread varied the greatest with a range of 2.4-5.7 m min{sup -1}. Passive crown fire was predicted for 5% of the study area using FCCS and LANDFIRE while passive crown fire was not predicted using SWRA data. No active crown fire was predicted regardless of the data source. Burn probability patterns across the landscape were similar but probability was highest using SWRA and lowest using FCCS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Non-DNA radiosensitive targets that initiate persistent behavioral deficits in rats exposed to space radiation

Predicting future CNS risks for astronauts during deep-space missions will rely substantially on ground-based rodent data with space-relevant ions and behaviors. For rats, the accumulated evidence indicates that less densely ionizing radiation, such as 4 He and 12 C ions, induce behavior deficits at lower doses than densely ionizing ions, such as 48 Ti and 56 Fe. However, this observation conflicts with standard somatic radiobiology, in which densely ionizing ions are generally more effective than less densely ionizing ions, and where the DNA/nucleus is the accepted target for radiation-induced tumorigenesis, cytogenetic aberrations, genetic mutations, and reproductive cell death. To gain deeper insight into the subcellular nature of the radiation targets for behavior risks, we compared the effects of dose, fluence, and linear energy transfer (LET) of 4 He and 56 Fe particles using existing datasets for four distinct behavioral outcomes in rats: elevated plus maze (EPM-anxiety), novel object recognition (NOR-memory), operant responding (OR-response to environmental stimuli), and attentional set-shifting (ATSET-cognitive flexibility). We confirmed that less densely ionizing particles (except protons) showed ~100-fold lower threshold doses than densely ionizing particles for behavioral deficits (0.1–1 cGy for 4 He vs. 15–100 cGy for 56 Fe). However, when analyzed by fluence the behavioral responses converged, indicating that 4 He and 56 Fe were equally effective on a per-track basis. When analyzed by LET, there were ~100-fold differences in the LET for maximum effectiveness for behavioral deficits and DNA endpoints (~1 vs ~100 keV/μm, respectively). These unique features of radiation-induced behavioral deficits (high sensitivity to particles in the 1-keV/μm range, insensitivity to protons in the 0.2 keV/μm range, and isofluence dependence for particles with LET>1 keV/μm) provide evidence in support of a new hypothesis of sub-micron sized radiosensitive targets for behavioral effects consistent with the thickness of plasma membranes and/or small subcellular structures, smaller than a whole synapse. Like our behavior findings, mouse immature oocyte killing which is known to have a plasma membrane target was also better explained by fluence, rather than dose. In contrast, fluence analyses for DNA/nuclear endpoints in somatic cells (e.g., tumor induction, chromosome aberrations) showed opposite results, suggesting that behavior targets are not DNA. Our findings raise questions regarding the identity of subcellular targets and the multi-cellular functional unit for behavior risks, low-dose susceptibility, and generalizability from rat to other species and astronauts.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A technical framework to describe occupant behavior for building energy simulations

Green buildings that fail to meet expected design performance criteria indicate that technology alone does not guarantee high performance. Human influences are quite often simplified and ignored in the design, construction, and operation of buildings. Energy-conscious human behavior has been demonstrated to be a significant positive factor for improving the indoor environment while reducing the energy use of buildings. In our study we developed a new technical framework to describe energy-related human behavior in buildings. The energy-related behavior includes accounting for individuals and groups of occupants and their interactions with building energy services systems, appliances and facilities. The technical framework consists of four key components: i. the drivers behind energy-related occupant behavior, which are biological, societal, environmental, physical, and economical in nature ii. the needs of the occupants are based on satisfying criteria that are either physical (e.g. thermal, visual and acoustic comfort) or non-physical (e.g. entertainment, privacy, and social reward) iii. the actions that building occupants perform when their needs are not fulfilled iv. the systems with which an occupant can interact to satisfy their needs The technical framework aims to provide a standardized description of a complete set of human energy-related behaviors in the form of an XML schema. For each type of behavior (e.g., occupants opening/closing windows, switching on/off lights etc.) we identify a set of common behaviors based on a literature review, survey data, and our own field study and analysis. Stochastic models are adopted or developed for each type of behavior to enable the evaluation of the impact of human behavior on energy use in buildings, during either the design or operation phase. We will also demonstrate the use of the technical framework in assessing the impact of occupancy behavior on energy saving technologies. The technical framework presented is part of our human behavior research, a 5-year program under the U.S. - China Clean Energy Research Center for Building Energy Efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simulation approach to estimate energy savings potential of occupant behavior measures

Occupant behavior in buildings is a leading factor influencing energy use in buildings. Low-cost behavioral solutions have demonstrated significant potential energy savings. Estimating the behavioral savings potential is important for a more effective design of behavior change interventions, which in turn will support more effective energy-efficiency policies. This study introduces a simulation approach to estimate the energy savings potential of occupant behavior measures. First it defines five typical occupant behavior measures in office buildings, then simulates and analyzes their individual and integrated impact on energy use in buildings. The energy performance of the five behavior measures was evaluated using EnergyPlus simulation for a real office building across four typical U.S. climates and two vintages. The Occupancy Simulator was used to simulate the occupant movement in each zone with inputs from the site survey of the case building. Based on the simulation results, the occupant behavior measures can achieve overall site energy savings as high as 22.9% for individual measures and up to 41.0% for integrated measures. Although energy savings of behavior measures would vary depending upon many factors, the presented simulation approach is robust and can be adopted for other studies aiming to quantify occupant behavior impact on building performance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Deer Vigilance and Movement Behavior Are Affected by Edge Density and Connectivity

ABSTRACT Animal behavior is an important component of individual, population, and community responses to anthropogenic habitat alteration. For example, antipredator behavior (e.g., vigilance) and animal movement behavior may both be important behavioral responses to the increased density of habitat edges and changes in patch connectivity that characterize highly modified habitats. Importantly, edge density and connectivity might interact, and this interaction is likely to mediate animal behavior: linear, edge‐rich landscape features often provide structural connectivity between patches, but the functional connectedness of patches for animal use could depend upon how edge density modifies animal vigilance and movement. Using remote cameras in large‐scale experimental landscapes that manipulate edge density (high‐ vs. low‐density edges) and patch connectivity (isolated or connected patches), we examined the effects of edge density and connectivity on the antipredator behavior and movement behavior of white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ). Deer vigilance was 1.38 times greater near high‐density edges compared to low‐density edges, regardless of whether patches were connected or isolated. Deer were also more likely to move parallel to connected high‐density edges than all other edge types, suggesting that connectivity promotes movement along high‐density edges. These results suggest that increases in edge density that accompany human fragmentation of existing habitats may give rise to large‐scale changes in the antipredator behavior of deer. These results also suggest that conservation strategies that simultaneously manipulate edge density and connectivity (i.e., habitat corridors) may have multiple effects on different aspects of deer behavior: linear habitat corridors were areas of high vigilance, but also areas where deer movement behavior implied increased movement along the habitat edge.

Bartel, Savannah L. [University of Wisconsin‐Madis↗

A meta-analysis of the association between gender and protective behaviors in response to respiratory epidemics

Respiratory infectious disease epidemics and pandemics are recurring events that levy a high cost on individuals and society. The health-protective behavioral response of the public plays an important role in limiting respiratory infectious disease spread. Health-protective behaviors take several forms. Behaviors can be categorized as pharmaceutical (e.g., vaccination uptake, antiviral use) or non-pharmaceutical (e.g., hand washing, face mask use, avoidance of public transport). Due to the limitations of pharmaceutical interventions during respiratory epidemics and pandemics, public health campaigns aimed at limiting disease spread often emphasize both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical behavioral interventions. Understanding the determinants of the public’s behavioral response is crucial for devising public health campaigns, providing information to parametrize mathematical models, and ultimately limiting disease spread. While other reviews have qualitatively analyzed the body of work on demographic determinants of health-protective behavior, this meta-analysis quantitatively combines the results from 85 publications to determine the global relationship between gender and health-protective behavioral response. The results show that women in the general population are about 50% more likely than men to adopt/practice non-pharmaceutical behaviors. Conversely, men in the general population are marginally (about 12%) more likely than women to adopt/practice pharmaceutical behaviors. It is possible that factors other than pharmaceutical/non-pharmaceutical status not included in this analysis act as moderators of this relationship. We find these results suggest an inherent difference in how men and women respond to epidemic and pandemic respiratory infectious diseases. In conclusion, this information can be used to target specific groups when developing non-pharmaceutical public health campaigns and to parameterize epidemic models incorporating demographic information.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behavior on energy savings of energy conservation measures

To improve energy efficiency—during new buildings design or during a building retrofit—evaluating the energy savings potential of energy conservation measures (ECMs) is a critical task. In building retrofits, occupant behavior significantly impacts building energy use and is a leading factor in uncertainty when determining the effectiveness of retrofit ECMs. Current simulation-based assessment methods simplify the representation of occupant behavior by using a standard or representative set of static and homogeneous assumptions ignoring the dynamics, stochastics, and diversity of occupant's energy-related behavior in buildings. The simplification contributes to significant gaps between the simulated and measured actual energy performance of buildings. This paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM energy savings using building performance simulation. During the first step of the study, three occupant behavior styles (austerity, normal, and wasteful) were defined to represent different levels of energy consciousness of occupants regarding their interactions with building energy systems (HVAC, windows, lights and plug-in equipment). Next, a simulation workflow was introduced to determine a range of the ECM energy savings. Then, guidance was provided to interpret the range of ECM savings to support ECM decision making. Finally, a pilot study was performed in a real building to demonstrate the application of the framework. Simulation results show that the impact of occupant behaviors on ECM savings vary with the type of ECM. Occupant behavior minimally affects energy savings for ECMs that are technology-driven (the relative savings differ by less than 2%) and have little interaction with the occupants; for ECMs with strong occupant interaction, such as the use of zonal control variable refrigerant flow system and natural ventilation, energy savings are significantly affected by occupant behavior (the relative savings differ by up to 20%). Finally, the study framework provides a novel, holistic approach to assessing the uncertainty of ECM energy savings related to occupant behavior, enabling stakeholders to understand and assess the risk of adopting energy efficiency technologies for new and existing buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data-driven occupant-behavior analytics for residential buildings

Many advances have been made in building technology to help save energy, but influencing the behavior of the occupants is still necessary to achieve low-energy use targets. One of the most practical ways to influence and change occupant behaviors is through incentives. Developing incentives for energy-saving and quantifying the impact of occupant behaviors are both active areas of research. Here, we propose a data analytics framework for detecting changes in occupant behaviors, which will help build an analytics feedback loop from behavior impact to incentive design. The framework has two major parts. The first forecasts energy consumption for each occupant, while the second determines a probability distribution for changes in energy consumption. The parts are interchangeable with other existing machine learning and statistical methods. A specific instantiation of the framework, using kernel ridge-regression for forecasting and k-means to find an empirical behavior distribution, is described in detail. An HVAC use-case with 5 different incentivized behaviors is used as an example to show that the framework can detect behavior changes induced by incentives. Furthermore, we show that some simpler behavior-change detection methods do not work, further justifying the use of advanced analytics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Developing custom fire behavior fuel models from ecologically complex fuel structures for upper Atlantic Coastal Plain forests.

Currently geospatial fire behavior analyses are performed with an array of fire behavior modeling systems such as FARSITE, FlamMap, and the Large Fire Simulation System. These systems currently require standard or customized surface fire behavior fuel models as inputs that are often assigned through remote sensing information. The ability to handle hundreds or thousands of measured surface fuelbeds representing the fine scale variation in fire behavior on the landscape is constrained in terms of creating compatible custom fire behavior fuel models. In this study, we demonstrate an objective method for taking ecologically complex fuelbeds from inventory observations and converting those into a set of custom fuel models that can be mapped to the original landscape. We use an original set of 629 fuel inventory plots measured on an 80,000 ha contiguous landscape in the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States. From models linking stand conditions to component fuel loads, we impute fuelbeds for over 6000 stands. These imputed fuelbeds were then converted to fire behavior parameters under extreme fuel moisture and wind conditions (97th percentile) using the fuel characteristic classification system (FCCS) to estimate surface fire rate of spread, surface fire flame length, shrub layer reaction intensity (heat load), non-woody layer reaction intensity, woody layer reaction intensity, and litter-lichen-moss layer reaction intensity. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis of the stands based on the values of the fire behavior parameters. The resulting 7 clusters were the basis for the development of 7 custom fire behavior fuel models from the cluster centroids that were calibrated against the FCCS point data for wind and fuel moisture. The latter process resulted in calibration against flame length as it was difficult to obtain a simultaneous calibration against both rate of spread and flame length. The clusters based on FCCS fire behavior parameters represent reasonably identifiable stand conditions, being: (1) pine dominated stands with more litter and down woody debriscomponents than other stands, (2) hardwood and pine stands with no shrubs, (3) hardwood dominated stands with low shrub and high non-woody biomass and high down woody debris, (4) stands with high grass and forb (i.e., non-woody) biomass as well as substantial shrub biomass, (5) stands with both high shrub and litter biomass, (6) pine-mixed hardwood stands with moderate litter biomass and low shrub biomass, and (7) baldcypress-tupelo stands. Models representing these stand clusters generated flame lengths from 0.6 to 2.3 musing a 30 km h{sub 1} wind speed and fireline intensities of 100-1500 kW m{sub 1} that are typical within the range of experience on this landscape. The fuel models ranked 1 < 2 < 7 < 5 < 4 < 3 < 6 in terms of both flame length and fireline intensity. The method allows for ecologically complex data to be utilized in order to create a landscape representative of measured fuel conditions and to create models that interface with geospatial fire models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An investigation of used electronics return flows: A data-driven approach to capture and predict consumers storage and utilization behavior

Highlights: • We analyzed a data set of HDDs returned back to an e-waste collection site. • We studied factors that affect the storage behavior. • Consumer type, brand and size are among factors which affect the storage behavior. • Commercial consumers have stored computers more than household consumers. • Machine learning models were used to predict the storage behavior. - Abstract: Consumers often have a tendency to store their used, old or un-functional electronics for a period of time before they discard them and return them back to the waste stream. This behavior increases the obsolescence rate of used still-functional products leading to lower profitability that could be resulted out of End-of-Use (EOU) treatments such as reuse, upgrade, and refurbishment. These types of behaviors are influenced by several product and consumer-related factors such as consumers’ traits and lifestyles, technology evolution, product design features, product market value, and pro-environmental stimuli. Better understanding of different groups of consumers, their utilization and storage behavior and the connection of these behaviors with product design features helps Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and recycling and recovery industry to better overcome the challenges resulting from the undesirable storage of used products. This paper aims at providing insightful statistical analysis of Electronic Waste (e-waste) dynamic nature by studying the effects of design characteristics, brand and consumer type on the electronics usage time and end of use time-in-storage. A database consisting of 10,063 Hard Disk Drives (HDD) of used personal computers returned back to a remanufacturing facility located in Chicago, IL, USA during 2011–2013 has been selected as the base for this study. The results show that commercial consumers have stored computers more than household consumers regardless of brand and capacity factors. Moreover, a heterogeneous storage behavior is observed for different brands of HDDs regardless of capacity and consumer type factors. Finally, the storage behavior trends are projected for short-time forecasting and the storage times are precisely predicted by applying machine learning methods.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

National variability in Americans’ COVID-19 protective behaviors: Implications for vaccine roll-out

Protective behaviors such as mask wearing and physical distancing are critical to slow the spread of COVID-19, even in the context of vaccine scale-up. Understanding the variation in self-reported COVID-19 protective behaviors is critical to developing public health messaging. The purpose of the study is to provide nationally representative estimates of five self-reported COVID-19 protective behaviors and correlates of such behaviors. In this cross-sectional survey study of US adults, surveys were administered via internet and telephone. Adults were surveyed from April 30-May 4, 2020, a time of peaking COVID-19 incidence within the US. Participants were recruited from the probability-based AmeriSpeak® national panel. Brief surveys were completed by 994 adults, with 73.0% of respondents reported mask wearing, 82.7% reported physical distancing, 75.1% reported crowd avoidance, 89.8% reported increased hand-washing, and 7.7% reported having prior COVID-19 testing. Multivariate analysis (p critical value .05) indicates that women were more likely to report protective behaviors than men, as were those over age 60. Respondents who self-identified as having low incomes, histories of criminal justice involvement, and Republican Party affiliation, were less likely to report four protective behaviors, though Republicans and individuals with criminal justice histories were more likely to report having received COVID-19 testing. The majority of Americans engaged in COVID-19 protective behaviors, with low-income Americans, those with histories of criminal justice involvement, and self-identified Republicans less likely to engage in these preventive behaviors. Culturally competent public health messaging and interventions might focus on these latter groups to prevent future infections. These findings will remain highly relevant even with vaccines widely available, given the complementarities between vaccines and protective behaviors, as well as the many challenges in delivering vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Experimental Study of Transport Behavior of Swellable Microgel Particles in Superpermeable Channels for Conformance Control

Summary Gel treatment is an effective way to attack excessive water production during oil development. The transport behavior of gel materials in reservoirs is of crucial importance to the effectiveness of gel treatments. The aim of this paper is investigating the transport behavior of swellable micrometer-sized preformed particle gels (PPGs, or microgels) through superpermeable (super-K) channels. Sandpacks with permeabilities ranging from 27 to 221 darcies were used to mimic the super-K channels. Multiple pressure sensors were applied along the sandpack models to monitor the propagation behavior of the microgels. The tested microgel particles could transport through the super-K channels, and a higher driving pressure gradient was required when the particle/pore size ratio was larger. The pressure gradient distribution along the super-K channels was relatively uniform when the particle/pore ratio was low (less than 1.3). However, the inlet section would show increasingly higher pressure gradients as the particle/pore ratio was increased, indicating increased difficulty in propagation. The propagation of the gel particles was significantly slower compared with the carrying fluid. The delayed propagation behavior was more pronounced when the particle/pore ratio was higher. The injection pressure was much less sensitive to the injection flow rate compared with a Newtonian fluid. The gel dispersion exhibited an apparent shear thinning (pseudoplastic) behavior when transporting through the porous channels. Breakage of the gel particles was observed especially at high superficial velocities. The particle breakage was partially responsible for the apparent shear thinning behavior. The breakage phenomenon was in favor of deep placement of the gel particles. The channel permeabilities were significantly reduced by the microgels, bringing sufficient resistance to subsequent waterflooding (more than 99.5%). At given matching size conditions, softer gels were more likely to establish in-depth placement and uniform water blocking capacity in the channels. The microgel particles exhibited salinity-responsive behavior to the post-brine flush. The gel particles could shrink and reswell according to the salinity of the injected water. Possibilities were discussed to use this salinity-responsive behavior. Also, the microgels exhibited a particular disproportionate permeability reduction (DPR) effect. After gel injection, the channel permeability to water flow was reduced by more than 20 to 92 times of the permeability to oil flow. This work provides important support to understand the transport behavior of gel particles in super-K channels. The achievements are helpful for gel product selection and gel treatment design.

Engineering↗

Effects of photon irradiation in the presence and absence of hindlimb unloading on the behavioral performance and metabolic pathways in the plasma of Fischer rats

The space environment astronauts experience during space missions consists of multiple environmental challenges, including microgravity. In this study, we assessed the behavioral and cognitive performances of male Fisher rats 2 months after sham irradiation or total body irradiation with photons in the absence or presence of simulated microgravity. We analyzed the plasma collected 9 months after sham irradiation or total body irradiation for distinct alterations in metabolic pathways and to determine whether changes to metabolic measures were associated with specific behavioral and cognitive measures. A total of 344 male Fischer rats were irradiated with photons (6 MeV; 3, 8, or 10 Gy) in the absence or presence of simulated weightlessness achieved using hindlimb unloading (HU). To identify potential plasma biomarkers of photon radiation exposure or the HU condition for behavioral or cognitive performance, we performed regression analyses. The behavioral effects of HU on activity levels in an open field, measures of anxiety in an elevated plus maze, and anhedonia in the M&M consumption test were more pronounced than those of photon irradiation. Phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan metabolism, and phenylalanine metabolism and biosynthesis showed very strong pathway changes, following photon irradiation and HU in animals irradiated with 3 Gy. Here, 29 out of 101 plasma metabolites were associated with 1 out of 13 behavioral measures. In the absence of HU, 22 metabolites were related to behavioral and cognitive measures. In HU animals that were sham-irradiated or irradiated with 8 Gy, one metabolite was related to behavioral and cognitive measures. In HU animals irradiated with 3 Gy, six metabolites were related to behavioral and cognitive measures. These data suggest that it will be possible to develop stable plasma biomarkers of behavioral and cognitive performance, following environmental challenges like HU and radiation exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Simulation Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Stochastic Occupant Behaviors on Demand Flexibility in Typical Commercial Buildings

As one of the primary users of the electric grid, buildings and building equipment, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, can be leveraged to provide the flexible demand needed to balance the grid. Typical strategies to achieve demand flexibility are to reduce electricity use during peak or critical periods by shutting down equipment or relaxing system setpoints, which will inevitably impact the occupants’ comfort. When occupants feel uncomfortable, they may take actions to regain their comfort, and some of those actions (such as turning on a personal fan) may have a negative impact on meeting the demand response goal. Therefore, it is important to incorporate occupant behaviors into the assessment ofthe building demand flexibility potential. In this study, a simulation framework that includes simulation of zone thermal loads, an HVAC system, and occupant behaviors, was developed to investigate the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility. A case study was conducted using a small office model from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Commercial Prototype Building Models to simulate the building envelope and zone loads. An agent-based occupant thermal behavior model was adapted to forecast occupants’ thermal comfort and their resulting thermal behaviors. An artificial neural network (ANN) based airflow model trained from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the zone was adopted to better predict the ambient environment of each occupant. An air-source heat pump simulation model that was calibrated from a real two-stage air-source heat pump system was used as the HVAC system. A typical load shedding event during peak hours was studied. Repeated simulations were conducted to capture the stochastic effects of occupant behaviors. The interplay between the demand flexibility, occupant comfort and behavior were analyzed by evaluating key performance indicators, including the energy use, occupant discomfort duration, and occupant behavior duration during the peak period. The results suggest that this framework can be used to analyze typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms ofdemand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

Chen, Zhelun↗

IEA EBC Annex 66: Definition and simulation of occupant behavior in buildings

Here, more than 30% of the total primary energy in the world is consumed in buildings. It is crucial to reduce building energy consumption in order to preserve energy resources and mitigate global climate change. Building performance simulations have been widely used for the estimation and optimization of building performance, providing reference values for the assessment of building energy consumption and the effects of energy-saving technologies. Among the various factors influencing building energy consumption, occupant behavior has drawn increasing attention. Occupant behavior includes occupant presence, movement, and interaction with building energy devices and systems. However, there are gaps in occupant behavior modeling as different energy modelers have employed varied data and tools to simulate occupant behavior, therefore producing different and incomparable results. Aiming to address these gaps, the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy in Buildings and Community (EBC) Programme Annex 66 has established a scientific methodological framework for occupant behavior research, including data collection, behavior model representation, modeling and evaluation approaches, and the integration of behavior modeling tools with building performance simulation programs. Annex 66 also includes case studies and application guidelines to assist in building design, operation, and policymaking, using interdisciplinary approaches to reduce energy use in buildings and improve occupant comfort and productivity. This paper highlights the key research issues, methods, and outcomes pertaining to Annex 66, and offers perspectives on future research needs to integrate occupant behavior with the building life cycle.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Controlling Combinatorial Complexity in Software and Malware Behavior Computation

Virtually all software is out of intellectual control in that no one knows its full behavior. Software Behavior Computation (SBC) is a new technology for understanding everything software does. SBC applies the mathematics of denotational semantics implemented by function composition in Functional Trace Tables (FTTs) to compute the behavior of programs, expressed as disjoint cases of conditional concurrent assignments. In some circumstances, combinatorial explosions in the number of cases can occur when calculating the behavior of sequences of multiple branching structures. This paper describes computational methods that avoid combinatorial explosions. The predicates that control branching structures such as ifthenelses can be organized into three categories: 1) Independent, resulting in no behavior case explosion, 2) Coordinated, resulting in two behavior cases, or 3) Goaloriented, with potential exponential growth in the number of cases. Traditional FTT-based behavior computation can be augmented by two additional computational methods, namely, Single-Value Function Abstractions (SVFAs) and, introduced in this paper, Relational Trace Tables (RTTs). These methods can be applied to the three predicate categories to avoid combinatorial growth in behavior cases while maintaining mathematical correctness.

Hyperion system↗

Prediction of Individual Social-Demographic Role Based on Travel Behavior Variability Using Long-Term GPS Data

With the development of and advances in smartphones and global positioning system (GPS) devices, travelers’ long-term travel behaviors are not impossible to obtain. This study investigates the pattern of individual travel behavior and its correlation with social-demographic features. For different social-demographic groups (e.g., full-time employees and students), the individual travel behavior may have specific temporal-spatial-mobile constraints. The study first extracts the home-based tours, including Home-to-Home and Home-to-Non-Home, from long-term raw GPS data. The travel behavior pattern is then delineated by home-based tour features, such as departure time, destination location entropy, travel time, and driving time ratio. The travel behavior variability describes the variances of travelers’ activity behavior features for an extended period. After that, the variability pattern of an individual’s travel behavior is used for estimating the individual’s social-demographic information, such as social-demographic role, by a supervised learning approach, support vector machine. In this study, a long-term (18-month) recorded GPS data set from Puget Sound Regional Council is used. The experiment’s result is very promising. The sensitivity analysis shows that as the number of tours thresholds increases, the variability of most travel behavior features converges, while the prediction performance may not change for the fixed test data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗