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At least 415 records · Page 23

Using Gaia DR2 to constrain local dark matter density and thin dark disk

We use stellar kinematics from the latest Gaia data release (DR2) to measure the local dark matter (DM) density ρ DM in a heliocentric cylinder of radius R= 150 pc and half-height z= 200 pc. We also explore the prospect of using our analysis to estimate the DM density in local substructure by setting constraints on the surface density and scale height of a thin dark disk aligned with the baryonic disk and formed due to dissipative dark matter self-interactions. Performing the statistical analysis within a Bayesian framework for three types of tracers, we obtain ρDM = 0.016 ± 0.010 M ⊙ /pc 3 for A stars; early G stars give a similar result, while F stars yield a significantly higher value. For a thin dark disk, A stars set the strongest constraint: excluding surface densities (5–12) M ⊙ /pc 2 for scale heights below 100 pc with 95% confidence. The upper bound of this constraint implies ≲ 1% of the Milky Way DM mass is present in a dissipative dark sector. Comparing our results with those derived using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) data, we find that the uncertainty in our measurements of the local DM content is dominated by systematic errors that arise from assumptions of our dynamical analysis in the low z region. Furthermore, there will only be a marginal reduction in these uncertainties with more data in the Gaia era. We comment on the robustness of our method and discuss potential improvements for future work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using Gaia Data 2 to Constrain Local Dark Matter Density and Thin Dark Disk

We use stellar kinematics from the latest Gaia data release (DR2) to measure the local dark matter (DM) density ρDM in a heliocentric cylinder of radius R = 150 pc and half-height z = 200 pc. We also explore the prospect of using our analysis to estimate the DM density in local substructure by setting constraints on the surface density and scale height of a thin dark disk aligned with the baryonic disk and formed due to dissipative dark matter self-interactions. Performing the statistical analysis within a Bayesian framework for three types of tracers, we obtain ρDM = 0.016 ± 0.010 Mꙩ/p c 3 for A stars; early G stars give a similar result, while F stars yield a significantly higher value. For a thin dark disk, A stars set the strongest constraint: excluding surface densities (5–12) Mꙩ/pc 2 for scale heights below 100 pc with 95% confidence. The upper bound of this constraint implies . 1% of the Milky Way DM mass is present in a dissipative dark sector. Comparing our results with those derived using Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) data, we find that the uncertainty in our measurements of the local DM content is dominated by systematic errors that arise from assumptions of our dynamical analysis in the low z region. Furthermore, there will only be a marginal reduction in these uncertainties with more data in the Gaia era. We comment on the robustness of our method and discuss potential improvements for future work.

dark matter theory↗

TOWARD CHARACTERIZATION OF THE TYPE IIP SUPERNOVA PROGENITOR POPULATION: A STATISTICAL SAMPLE OF LIGHT CURVES FROM Pan-STARRS1

In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multiband imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SNe): systematic light-curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 yr and classified using both spectroscopy and machine-learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multiband evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a subpopulation of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as ''Type IIL'' SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for SN cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of ≲ 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light-curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multiband light-curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide-field transient searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BeyondPlanck: XV. Limits on large-scale polarized anomalous microwave emission from Planck LFI and WMAP

We constrained the level of polarized anomalous microwave emission (AME) on large angular scales using Planck Low-Frequency Instrument (LFI) and WMAP polarization data within a Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis framework. We modeled synchrotron emission with a power-law spectral energy distribution, as well as the sum of AME and thermal dust emission through linear regression with the Planck High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) 353 GHz data. This template-based dust emission model allowed us to constrain the level of polarized AME while making minimal assumptions on its frequency dependence. We neglected CMB fluctuations, but show through simulations that these fluctuations have a minor impact on the results. We find that the resulting AME polarization fraction confidence limit is sensitive to the polarized synchrotron spectral index prior. In addition, for prior means β s < -3.1 we find an upper limit of p AME max ≲ 0.6% (95% confidence). In contrast, for means β s = -3.0, we find a nominal detection of p AME = 2.5 ± 1.0% (95% confidence). These data are thus not strong enough to simultaneously and robustly constrain both polarized synchrotron emission and AME, and our main result is therefore a constraint on the AME polarization fraction explicitly as a function of β s . Combining the current Planck and WMAP observations with measurements from high-sensitivity low-frequency experiments such as C-BASS and QUIJOTE will be critical to improve these limits further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gaussian process-based surrogate modeling framework for process planning in laser powder-bed fusion additive manufacturing of 316L stainless steel

Here, Laser Powder-Bed Fusion (L-PBF) metal-based additive manufacturing (AM) is complex and not fully understood. Successful processing for one material, might not necessarily apply to a different material. This paper describes a workflow process that aims at creating a material data sheet standard that describes regimes where the process can be expected to be robust. The procedure consists of building a Gaussian process-based surrogate model of the L-PBF process that predicts melt pool depth in single-track experiments given a laser power, scan speed, and laser beam size combination. The predictions are then mapped onto a power versus scan speed diagram delimiting the conduction from the keyhole melting controlled regimes. This statistical framework is shown to be robust even for cases where experimental training data might be suboptimal in quality, if appropriate physics-based filters are applied. Additionally, it is demonstrated that a high-fidelity simulation model of L-PBF can equally be successfully used for building a surrogate model, which is beneficial since simulations are getting more efficient and are more practical to study the response of different materials, than to re-tool an AM machine for new material powder.

316L stainless steel↗

A Sensitive Search for Supernova Emission Associated with the Extremely Energetic and Nearby GRB 221009A

We report observations of the optical counterpart of the long gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A. Due to the extreme rarity of being both nearby (z = 0.151) and highly energetic (E ϒ,iso ≥ 10 54 erg), GRB 221009A offers a unique opportunity to probe the connection between massive star core collapse and relativistic jet formation across a very broad range of γ-ray properties. Adopting a phenomenological power-law model for the afterglow and host galaxy estimates from high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we use Bayesian model comparison techniques to determine the likelihood of an associated supernova (SN) contributing excess flux to the optical light curve. Though not conclusive, we find moderate evidence (K Bayes =10 1.2 for the presence of an additional component arising from an associated SN, SN 2022xiw, and find that it must be substantially fainter (<67% as bright at the 99% confidence interval) than SN 1998bw. Given the large and uncertain line-of-sight extinction, we attempt to constrain the SN parameters (M Ni , M ej and E KE ) under several different assumptions with respect to the host galaxy's extinction. We find properties that are broadly consistent with previous GRB-associated SNe: M Ni = 0.05–0.25 M ⊙ , M ej = 3.5–11.1 M ⊙ , and E KE = (1.6–5.2) × 10 52 erg. We note that these properties are weakly constrained due to the faintness of the SN with respect to the afterglow and host emission, but we do find a robust upper limit on M Ni of M Ni < 0.36 M ⊙ . Given the tremendous range in isotropic gamma-ray energy release exhibited by GRBs (seven orders of magnitude), the SN emission appears to be decoupled from the central engine in these systems.

Core-collapse supernovae↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Diagnostics Using Electrochemical Impedance via Machine-Learning

Diagnosing battery states such as health, state-of-charge, or temperature is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of electrochemical energy storage systems. While some states, such as temperature, may be measured using cheap sensors, accurate diagnosis of battery health metrics usually requires time-consuming performance measurements, making them infeasible for use in real-world operation. These health metrics can be measured during lab-testing and then estimated on-line using predictive life models or via state observer algorithms such as Kalman filters, but these predictive methods should be supplemented by actual measurement of battery health whenever possible to ensure reliability. Rapid measurement of battery health may be done by various types of fast diagnostic techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), which can be performed in only a few minutes and require only a fraction of the energy and power needed for a full charge and discharge measurement. But there is a substantial challenge for estimating battery health using EIS data, as EIS is sensitive to cell temperature, state-of-charge, current, and resting time in addition to health. Thus, utilizing EIS data to predict battery capacity requires correcting for all these additional variables, a task that is extremely difficult to handle analytically. This talk utilizes machine-learning methods to estimate the effectiveness of battery capacity prediction from EIS data, leveraging a data set of hundreds of EIS measurements recorded at varying temperature and state-of-charge throughout a 500-day aging study of 32 commercial, large-format NMC-Graphite lithium-ion batteries. Using EIS as input to machine-learning models is complicated by the nonlinear response of impedance to battery health, temperature, and state-of-charge, as well as the collinearity between the impedance response at neighboring frequencies, which can easily lead to overfit models. To train robust models, features from EIS data need to be extracted from the data or some subset of critical frequencies selected. Many approaches for extracting and selecting features from EIS data from electrochemical analysis and machine-learning fields were identified for analysis: using the entire raw spectra; selection of one, two, or many frequencies from the entire spectra; selecting interesting points from the EIS measurement using domain knowledge; fitting EIS with an equivalent-circuit model; calculating statistics on the raw impedance values; and reducing the dimensionality of the data using unsupervised linear (principal component analysis) and non-linear (uniform manifold approximation and projection) methods. These approaches were rigorously compared using a machine-learning pipeline approach, training linear, Gaussian process, and random forest regression models and quantifying performance using cross-validation as well as a held-out test set. An artificial neural network model trained on the raw spectra was also tested. Promising pipelines were fine-tuned via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using cross-validation loss and training with class-specific weights to counter data set imbalance. The most reliable method for utilizing impedance in this work was the selection of two optimal frequencies through an exhaustive search, resulting in about 2% mean absolute error on test data for both Gaussian process and random forest model architectures. Interrogation of a variety of models reveals critical frequencies of 100 Hz and 103 Hz for this data set, though the optimal set of frequencies is not necessarily intuitive, i.e., the best performing models are not simply those that use impedance at frequencies that have the highest correlation to the relative discharge capacity. The best performing model is an ensemble model, which is able to predict battery capacity with 1.9% mean absolute error for unseen cells using impedance recorded at a variety of temperatures and states-of-charge.

battery↗

Robust analysis of space-, time-, and energy-resolved soft x-ray measurements of magnetically confined fusion plasmas (invited)

A novel compact multi-energy soft x-ray (ME-SXR) diagnostic based on the PILATUS3 100K x-ray detector has been developed in collaboration between the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and the University of Wisconsin-Madison and tested on the Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) reversed-field pinch. This solid-state photon-counting detector consists of a two-dimensional array of ~100 000 pixels for which the lower photon absorption cutoff energy can be independently set, allowing it to be configured for a unique combination of simultaneous spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of ~1 cm, 100 eV, and 500 Hz, respectively. The diagnostic is highly versatile and can be readily adapted to diverse plasma operating conditions and scientific needs without any required downtime. New results from improved-confinement and quasi-single helicity plasmas in the MST demonstrate how the detector can be applied to study multiple aspects of the evolution of magnetically confined fusion-grade plasmas. These include observing the evolution of thermal emissivity, characterizing the energy of mid-Z excitation lines, extracting the T e profile, and observing the evolution of non-thermal populations. A technique for integrating the ME-SXR diagnostic into an integrated data analysis framework based on Bayesian inference is also presented. As a result, this allows ME-SXR measurements to be combined with data for complementary diagnostics in order to simultaneously infer Te and nZ from all available information.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Bayesian inference on the sphere beyond statistical isotropy

We present a general method for Bayesian inference of the underlying covariance structure of random fields on a sphere. We employ the Bipolar Spherical Harmonic (BipoSH) representation of general covariance structure on the sphere. We illustrate the efficacy of the method as a principled approach to assess violation of statistical isotropy (SI) in the sky maps of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations. SI violation in observed CMB maps arise due to known physical effects such as Doppler boost and weak lensing; yet unknown theoretical possibilities like cosmic topology and subtle violations of the cosmological principle, as well as, expected observational artefacts of scanning the sky with a non-circular beam, masking, foreground residuals, anisotropic noise, etc. We explicitly demonstrate the recovery of the input SI violation signals with their full statistics in simulated CMB maps. Our formalism easily adapts to exploring parametric physical models with non-SI covariance, as we illustrate for the inference of the parameters of a Doppler boosted sky map. Our approach promises to provide a robust quantitative evaluation of the evidence for SI violation related anomalies in the CMB sky by estimating the BipoSH spectra along with their complete posterior.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The impact of non-uniform thermal structure on the interpretation of exoplanet emission spectra

The determination of atmospheric structure and molecular abundances of planetary atmospheres via spectroscopy involves direct comparisons between models and data. While varying in sophistication, most model spectra comparisons fundamentally assume one-dimensional (1D) model physics. However, knowledge from general circulation models and of solar system planets suggests that planetary atmospheres are inherently three-dimensional in their structure and composition. We explore the potential biases resulting from standard “1D” assumptions within a Bayesian atmospheric retrieval framework. Specifically, we show how the assumption of a single 1D thermal profile can bias our interpretation of the thermal emission spectrum of a hot Jupiter atmosphere that is composed of two thermal profiles. We retrieve spectra of unresolved model planets as observed with a combination of the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3)+Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) as well as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) under varying differences in the two thermal profiles. For WFC3+IRAC, there is a significantly biased estimate of CH{sub 4} abundance using a 1D model when the contrast is 80%. For JWST, two thermal profiles are required to adequately interpret the data and estimate the abundances when contrast is greater than 40%. We also apply this preliminary concept to the recent WFC3+IRAC phase curve data of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b. We see similar behavior as present in our simulated data: while the H{sub 2}O abundance determination is robust, CH{sub 4} is artificially well-constrained to incorrect values under the 1D assumption. Our work demonstrates the need to evaluate model assumptions in order to extract meaningful constraints from atmospheric spectra and motivates exploration of optimal observational setups.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗

SAChES: Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling.

We present the development of a parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method called SAChES, Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling. This capability is targed to Bayesian calibration of com- putationally expensive simulation models. SAChES involves a hybrid of two methods: Differential Evo- lution Monte Carlo followed by Adaptive Metropolis. Both methods involve parallel chains. Differential evolution allows one to explore high-dimensional parameter spaces using loosely coupled (i.e., largely asynchronous) chains. Loose coupling allows the use of large chain ensembles, with far more chains than the number of parameters to explore. This reduces per-chain sampling burden, enables high-dimensional inversions and the use of computationally expensive forward models. The large number of chains can also ameliorate the impact of silent-errors, which may affect only a few chains. The chain ensemble can also be sampled to provide an initial condition when an aberrant chain is re-spawned. Adaptive Metropolis takes the best points from the differential evolution and efficiently hones in on the poste- rior density. The multitude of chains in SAChES is leveraged to (1) enable efficient exploration of the parameter space; and (2) ensure robustness to silent errors which may be unavoidable in extreme-scale computational platforms of the future. This report outlines SAChES, describes four papers that are the result of the project, and discusses some additional results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

THE BOLOCAM GALACTIC PLANE SURVEY. XII. DISTANCE CATALOG EXPANSION USING KINEMATIC ISOLATION OF DENSE MOLECULAR CLOUD STRUCTURES WITH {sup 13}CO(1-0)

We present an expanded distance catalog for 1710 molecular cloud structures identified in the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS) version 2, representing a nearly threefold increase over the previous BGPS distance catalog. We additionally present a new method for incorporating extant data sets into our Bayesian distance probability density function (DPDF) methodology. To augment the dense-gas tracers (e.g., HCO{sup +}(3-2), NH{sub 3}(1,1)) used to derive line-of-sight velocities for kinematic distances, we utilize the Galactic Ring Survey (GRS) {sup 13}CO(1-0) data to morphologically extract velocities for BGPS sources. The outline of a BGPS source is used to select a region of the GRS {sup 13}CO data, along with a reference region to subtract enveloping diffuse emission, to produce a line profile of {sup 13}CO matched to the BGPS source. For objects with a HCO{sup +}(3-2) velocity, ≈95% of the new {sup 13}CO(1-0) velocities agree with that of the dense gas. A new prior DPDF for kinematic distance ambiguity (KDA) resolution, based on a validated formalism for associating molecular cloud structures with known objects from the literature, is presented. We demonstrate this prior using catalogs of masers with trigonometric parallaxes and H II regions with robust KDA resolutions. The distance catalog presented here contains well-constrained distance estimates for 20% of BGPS V2 sources, with typical distance uncertainties ≲ 0.5 kpc. Approximately 75% of the well-constrained sources lie within 6 kpc of the Sun, concentrated in the Scutum-Centaurus arm. Galactocentric positions of objects additionally trace out portions of the Sagittarius, Perseus, and Outer arms in the first and second Galactic quadrants, and we also find evidence for significant regions of interarm dense gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

T-REx. II. Retrieval of emission spectra

T-REx (Tau Retrieval of Exoplanets) is a novel, fully Bayesian atmospheric retrieval code custom built for extrasolar atmospheres. In Waldmann et al., the transmission spectroscopic case was introduced, and here we present the emission spectroscopy spectral retrieval for the T-REx framework. Compared to transmission spectroscopy, the emission case is often significantly more degenerate due to the need to retrieve the full atmospheric temperature–pressure (TP) profile. This is particularly true in the case of current measurements of exoplanetary atmospheres, which are either of low signal-to-noise, low spectral resolution, or both. We present a new way of combining two existing approaches to the modeling of the said TP profile: (1) the parametric profile, where the atmospheric TP structure is analytically approximated by a few model parameters, (2) the layer-by-layer approach, where individual atmospheric layers are modeled. Both of these approaches have distinct advantages and disadvantages in terms of convergence properties and potential model biases. The T-REx hybrid model presented here is a new two-stage TP profile retrieval, which combines the robustness of the analytic solution with the accuracy of the layer-by-layer approach. The retrieval process is demonstrated using simulations of the hot-Jupiter WASP-76b and the hot-super-Earth 55 Cnc e as well as the secondary eclipse measurements of HD 189733b.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing the Influence of Microphysical and Environmental Parameter Perturbations on Orographic Precipitation

Microphysical (MP) schemes contain parameters whose values can impact the amount and location of forecasted precipitation, and sensitivity is typically explored by perturbing one parameter at a time while holding the rest constant. Although much can be learned from these “one-at-a-time” studies, the results are limited as these methods do not allow for nonlinear interactions of multiple perturbed parameters. This study applies the Morris one-at-a-time (MOAT) method, a robust statistical tool allowing for simultaneous perturbation of numerous parameters, to explore orographic precipitation sensitivity to changes in microphysical and environmental parameters within an environment characteristic of an atmospheric river. Results show parameters associated with snow fall speed coefficient A s and density ρ s , ice-cloud water collection efficiency (ECI), rain accretion (WRA), relative humidity, zonal wind speed, and surface potential temperature cause the largest influence on simulated precipitation. MP and environmental parameter perturbations can cause precipitation changes of similar magnitude, but results vary by location on the mountain. Different environments are also tested, with A s being the most influential MP parameter regardless of environment. Fewer MP parameters influence precipitation in a faster-wind-speed environment, possibly due to the stronger dynamical forcing upwind and different wave dynamics downwind, compared to a slower-wind-speed environment. Finally, perturbing MP parameters within a single scheme can result in precipitation variations of similar magnitude compared to using entirely different microphysics schemes. MOAT results presented in this study have implications for Bayesian parameter estimation methods and stochastic parameterization within ensemble forecasting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗