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Examination of a new ice motion dataset of the Arctic Ocean over a recent eighteen year period (1978-1996) reveals patterns of variability that can be linked directly to the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Between 1996 and the mid-2000s the upper waters (200-700 m) of the Rockall Trough became warmer (+0.72 C), saltier (+0.088) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (-2.00 Micron and -0.14 Micron respectively). These changes, out-with calculated errors, can be explained by the varying influence of southern versus subpolar water masses in the basin as the Subpolar Gyre weakened and contracted. Upper water properties strongly correlate with a measure of the strength of the Subpolar Gyre (the first principal component of sea surface height over the Subpolar North Atlantic) prior to the mid-2000s. As the gyre weakens, the upper layers of the trough become warmer (r -0.85), more saline (r -0.86) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (r +0.81 and r +0.87 respectively). Further the proportion of subpolar waters in the basin decreases from around 50% to less than 20% (r +0. 88). Since the mid-2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been particularly weak. During this period temperatures decreased slightly (-0.21 1C), salinities remained near constant (35.410 +/- 0.005) and phosphate levels low and stable (0.68 +/- 0.02 Micron). These relative lack of changes are thought to be related to the maximum proportion of southern water masses within the Rockall Trough having been reached. Thus the upper water properties are no longer controlled by changes in the relative importance of different water masses in the basin (as prior to the mid-2000s), but rather a different process. We suggest that when the gyre is particularly weak the interannual changes in upper water properties in the Rockall Trough reflect changes in the source properties of the southern water masses. Since the early-2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been weaker than observed since 1992, or modelled since 1960-1970. Hence upper waters within the Rockall Trough may be warmer, saltier and more depleted in nitrate and phosphate than at any time in the last half century.
As part of the Wallops Coastal Oceans Observing Laboratory (Wa-COOL) Project, we sampled a time-series transect in the southern Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) biweekly. Our 2-year time-series data included physical parameters, nutrient concentrations, and chlorophyll a concentrations. A detailed phytoplankton assemblage structure was examined in the second year. During the 2-year study, chlorophyll a concentration (and ocean color satellite imagery) indicated that phytoplankton blooms occurred in January/February during mixing conditions and in early autumn under stratified conditions. The chlorophyll a concentrations ranged from 0.25 microgram 1(exp -1) to 15.49 microgram 1(exp -1) during the 2-year period. We were able to discriminate approximately 116 different species under phase contrast microscopy. Dominant phytoplankton included Skeletonema costatum, Rhizosolenia spp., and Pseudo-nitzschia pungens. In an attempt to determine phytoplankton species competition/succession within the assemblage, we calculated a Shannon Weaver diversity index for our diatom microscopy data. Diatom diversity was greatest during the winter and minimal during the spring. Diatom diversity was also greater at nearshore stations than at offshore stations. Individual genera appeared patchy, with surface and subsurface patches appearing abruptly and persisting for only 1-2 months at a time. The distribution of individual species differed significantly from bulk variables of the assemblage (chlorophyll a ) and total phytoplankton assemblage (cells), which indicates that phytoplankton species may be limited in growth in ways that differ from those of the total assemblage. Our study demonstrated a highly diverse phytoplankton assemblage throughout the year, with opportunistic species dominating during spring and fall in response to seasonal changes in temperature and nutrients in the southern MAB.
North Atlantic oceanic airspace accommodates more than 1000 flights daily, and is subjected to very strong winds. Flying wind-optimal trajectories yields time and fuel savings for each individual flight. However, when taken together, these trajectories induce a large amount of potential en-route conflicts. This paper analyses the detected conflicts, figuring out conflict distribution in time and space. It further describes an optimization algorithm aimed at reducing the number of conflicts for a daily set of flights on strategic level. Several trajectory modification strategies are discussed, followed with simulation results. Finally, an algorithm improvement is presented aiming at better preserving the trajectory optimality.
Air traffic in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT) experiences very strong winds caused by jet streams. Flying wind-optimal trajectories increases individual flight efficiency, which is advantageous when operating in the NAT. However, as the NAT is highly congested during peak hours, a large number of potential conflicts between flights are detected for the sets of wind-optimal trajectories. Conflict resolution performed at the strategic level of flight planning can significantly reduce the airspace congestion. However, being completed far in advance, strategic planning can only use predicted environmental conditions that may significantly differ from the real conditions experienced further by aircraft. The forecast uncertainties result in uncertainties in conflict prediction, and thus, conflict resolution becomes less efficient. This work considers wind uncertainties in order to improve the robustness of conflict resolution in the NAT. First, the influence of wind uncertainties on conflict prediction is investigated. Then, conflict resolution methods accounting for wind uncertainties are proposed.
The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species from many sources regionally and other continents. As Part 1 of a 2‐part paper series, this work characterizes quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, by analyzing available satellite observations, ground‐based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Part 2 provides insight into the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three‐dimensional cloud structure, properties, and precipitation over the WNAO domain. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards the accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of different sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport. Analysis of long‐term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities.
Saharan dust outbreaks frequently propagate westward over the Atlantic Ocean; accurate quantification of the dust aerosol scattering and absorption effect on the surface radiative fluxes (SRF) is fundamental to understanding critical climate feedbacks. By exploiting large sets of measurements from many ship campaigns in conjunction with reanalysis products, this study characterizes the sensitivity of the SRF and skin Sea‐Surface Temperature (SSTskin) to the Saharan dust aerosols using models of the atmospheric radiative transfer and thermal skin effect. Saharan dust outbreaks can decrease the surface shortwave radiation up to 190 W/sq.m, and an analysis of the corresponding SST(skin) changes using a thermal skin model suggests dust‐induced cooling effects as large as −0.24 K during daytime and a warming effect of up of 0.06 K during daytime and nighttime respectively. Greater physical insight into the radiative transfer through an aerosol‐burdened atmosphere will substantially improve the predictive capabilities of weather and climate studies on a regional basis.
Phytoplankton primary productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean sustains valuable fisheries and exports anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, but multiple Earth system models show that this productivity declines substantially in 21st century global warming scenarios. Prior studies have investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton, which exhibit a prominent but spatially variable spring bloom that is caused by the closely related seasonal cycles in solar radiation and vertical mixing that modulate both phytoplankton growth and loss rates. However, recent work indicates that multi-decade declines in this spring bloom with global warming in multiple Earth system models are driven by reductions in circulation of nutrients from the subtropical and tropical thermocline, rather than local changes in vertical mixing or shortwave radiation in the Subarctic. It is unclear if current models of how phytoplankton productivity varies seasonally or over a century in global warming can be interpolated to explain the interannual to decadal variability. In this poster, I will quantify the interannual to decadal variability of phytoplankton chlorophyll using historical satellite ocean color observations and model simulations with the Community Earth System Model. I will then use the observations and model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and how that variability is restructured in 21st century global warming scenarios.
This manuscript presents an overview of NASA’s EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing 2021 Field Campaign in the North Atlantic (EXPORTS NA) and provides quantitative and dynamical descriptions of the physical processes modulating water transformations during the study. A major programmatic goal was to conduct the sampling in a Lagrangian mode so that ocean ecological and biogeochemical changes can be observed independent from physical advective processes. To accomplish this goal, EXPORTS NA conducted a multi-ship, multi-asset field sampling program within a retentive, anticyclonic mode water eddy. Beneath depths of ∼100 m, Lagrangian sampling assets remained within the eddy core waters (ECWs) throughout the experiment, demonstrating that the ECWs within the mode water eddy were retentive. However, strong westerly winds from four storm events deepened the mixed layer (ML) of the surface core waters (SCWs) above the eddy’s mode water core by 25-40 m and exchanged some of the SCWs with surface waters outside of the eddy via Ekman transport. Estimates of flushing times ranged from 5-8 days, with surface exchange fractions ranging from 20-75% and were consistent with particle tracking advected by combined geostrophic and Ekman velocities. The relative contributions of horizontal and vertical advection on changes in ECW tracers depended on the horizontal and vertical gradients of that tracer. For example, horizontal advection played a large role in ECW salinity fluxes, while vertical entrainment played a larger role in the fluxes of nutrients into SCW ML. Each storm injected nutrients and low oxygen waters into the ML, after which the surface ocean ecosystem responded by reducing nutrient concentrations and increasing %O2 saturation levels. Overall, ECW values of chlorophyll and POC were the largest at the onset of the field program and decreased throughout the campaign. The analysis presented provides a physical oceanographic context for the many measurements made during the EXPORTS NA field campaign while illustrating the many challenges of conducting a production-flux experiment, even in a Lagrangian frame, and the inherent uncertainties of interpreting biological carbon pump observations that were collected in a Eulerian frame of reference.
This study evaluated offshore carbon sequestration potential and infrastructure design along the mid-north Atlantic outer continental shelf, addressing the limited onshore storage options in the northeastern U.S. The objective was to define viable CCS pathways by integrating geological characterization, reservoir modeling, and system-level engineering for decarbonizing regional industrial sources. The work was conducted under US DOE grant FE0032407 for the Regional Initiatives and builds on a previous prospective resources assessment project by Battelle.
Abstract Metabolites, or the small organic molecules that are synthesized by cells during metabolism, comprise a complex and dynamic pool of carbon in the ocean. They are an essential currency in interactions at the population and community levels of biological organization. Characterizing metabolite distributions inside microbial cells and dissolved in seawater is essential to understanding the controls on their production and fate, as well as their roles in shaping marine microbial food webs. Here, we apply a targeted metabolomics method to quantify particulate and dissolved distributions of a suite of biologically relevant metabolites including vitamins, amino acids, nucleic acids, osmolytes, and intermediates in biosynthetic pathways along a latitudinal transect in the western Atlantic Ocean. We find that, in the upper 200 m of the water column, most particulate or intracellular metabolites positively covary with the most abundant microbial taxa. In contrast, dissolved metabolites exhibited greater variability with differences in distribution between ocean regions. Although fewer particulate metabolites were detected below 200 m, the particulate metabolites identified in the deep ocean may be linked to adaptive physiological strategies of deep‐sea microbes. Based on the identified metabolite distributions, we propose relationships between certain metabolites and microbial populations, and find that dissolved metabolite distributions are not directly related to their particulate abundances.
The characteristics of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their impacts on climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere are important metrics for evaluating a climate system model. Observational analyses reveal that the horizontal and vertical structures in the AO and NAO exhibit a meridional dipole and a large-scale barotropic pattern between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Historical model simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST) are used to identify how well it captures these major climate modes. It is found that the simulated AO and NAO modes have spatial structures similar to the observed features. In addition, the observed frequency bands in the AO and NAO-related time variability are captured well in the E3SM-HIST simulation. Associated with the positive phase in wintertime AO and NAO, zonal flow and warm advection in mid-latitude continents are enhanced, along with stronger cold flow from enhanced northerly winds over high latitudes. These features are linked to the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected by lower SLP anomalies over the Arctic and higher SLP anomalies over the mid-latitudes. In E3SM-HIST, these spatial associations and main structural features are analogous to those in observations. In the time-height evolution related to winter AO and NAO modes, it can also be seen that the simulations reproduce the downward propagating patterns in observations. Nevertheless, the vertical structures associated with AO and NAO in E3SM-HIST exhibit substantial biases in the lower stratosphere. The cause of these stratospheric biases is investigated using the strength of climatological stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and wave activity fluxes. The results herein suggest that E3SM-HIST has a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed characteristics related to the winter AO and NAO, although there exist systematic biases in the associated climate variability.
Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.
Abstract Biological nitrogen fixation is a key process balancing the loss of combined nitrogen in the marine nitrogen cycle. Its relevance in upwelling or high nutrient regions is still unclear, with the few available studies in these regions of the ocean reporting rates that vary widely from below detection limit to > 100 nmol N L −1 d −1 . In the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, two open ocean upwelling systems are active in boreal summer. One is the seasonal equatorial upwelling, where the residual phosphorus associated with aged upwelled waters is suggested to enhance nitrogen fixation in this season. The other is the Guinea Dome, a thermal upwelling dome. We conducted two surveys along 23° W across the Guinea Dome and the Equator from 15° N to 5° S in September 2015 and August–September 2016 with high latitudinal resolution (20–60 nm between stations). The abundance of Trichodesmium colonies was characterized by an Underwater Vision Profiler 5 and the total biological nitrogen fixation in the euphotic layer was measured using the 15 N 2 technique. The highest abundances of Trichodesmium colonies were found in the area of the Guinea Dome (9°–15° N) with a maximum of 3 colonies L −1 near the surface. By contrast, colonies were almost absent in the Equatorial band between 2° N and 5° S. The highest nitrogen fixation rate was measured at the northern edge of the Guinea Dome in 2016 (ca. 31 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). In this region, where diazotrophs thrived on a sufficient supply of both phosphorus and iron, a patchy distribution was unveiled by our increased spatial resolution scheme. In the Equatorial band, rates were considerably lower, ranging from below detection limit to ca. 4 nmol N L −1 d −1 , with a clear difference in magnitude between 2015 (rates close to zero) and 2016 (average rates around 2 nmol N L −1 d −1 ). This difference seemed triggered by a contrasting supply of phosphorus between years. Our study stresses the importance of surveys with sampling at fine-scale spatial resolution, and shows unexpected high variability in the rates of nitrogen fixation in the Guinea Dome, a region where diazotrophy is a significant process supplying new nitrogen into the euphotic layer.
Wildfire is a major source of biomass burning aerosols, which greatly impact Earth climate. Tree species in North America (NA) boreal forests can support high-intensity crown fires, resulting in elevated injection height and longer lifetime (on the order of months) of the wildfire aerosols. Given the long lifetime, the properties of aged NA wildfire aerosols are required to understand and quantify their effects on radiation and climate. Here we present comprehensive characterization of climatically relevant properties, including optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of aged NA wildfire aerosols, emitted from the record-breaking Canadian wildfires in August 2017. Despite the extreme injection height of ~12 km, some of the wildfire plumes descended into the marine boundary layer in the eastern North Atlantic over a period of ~2 weeks, owing to the dry intrusions behind mid-latitude cyclones. The aged wildfire aerosols have high single scattering albedos at 529 nm (ω 529 ; 0.92–0.95) while low absorption Ångström exponents (Å abs ) at 464 nm/648 nm (0.7–0.9). In comparison, Å abs of fresh/slightly aged ones are typically 1.4–3.5. This low Å abs 529 and low Å abs ~110 nm diameter) with thick non-absorbing coatings. The accelerated descent of the wildfire plume also led to strong increase of CCN concentration at the supersaturation levels representative of marine low clouds. The hygroscopicity parameter, κ CCN , of the aged wildfire aerosols varies from 0.2 to 0.4, substantially lower than that of background marine boundary layer aerosols. However, the high fraction of particles with large diameter (i.e., within accumulation size ranges, ~100–250 nm) compensates for the low values of κ, and as a result, the aged NA wildfire aerosols contribute more efficiently to CCN population. These results provide direct evidence that the long-range transported NA wildfires can strongly influence CCN concentration in remote marine boundary layer, therefore the radiative properties of marine low clouds. Given the expected increases of NA wildfire intensity and frequency and regular occurrence of dry intrusion following mid-latitude cyclones, the influence of NA wildfire aerosols on CCN and clouds in remote marine environment need to be further examined.
Changes in temperature and sea level can cause dissociation of methane hydrates in shallow marine sediments, leading to seafloor destabilization. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin, there exists a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous recorded occurrences of gas seeps. Several studies have linked slope failure in the region to gas seepage and hydrate dissociation driven by glacial-interglacial transitions, but this linkage has not been quantitatively demonstrated. Along the shelf edge, in an area where shallow methane gas seeps have been identified, we modeled methane gas and hydrate formation using a one-dimensional fluid flow model. Methane gas formation was modeled over the last 120,000 years to simulate a glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we ran this model at 16,044 individual locations in the region between 29° N – 45° N and 82° W – 66° W at a resolution of 1 x 1 arcminutes, focusing specifically on water depths between 200 and 1000 m that bracket the seafloor outcrop of the base of the hydrate stability zone. Using historic temperature and pressure records from the last 120,000 years, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause sediment failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur.
This study characterizes navigation conflicts in a region with a large traffic volume along the US Atlantic Coast, utilizing Automated Identification System (AIS) data for 2010. The region includes areas proposed for wind energy development. The characterization could be useful in evaluating the effect of offshore wind areas on navigation conflicts. The study processes the AIS data to provide pairwise comparisons of vessel interactions (encounters and near-misses) as they occurred. Using the vessel encounter data, analyses are made using a ‘blind’ vessel assumption to evaluate the potential for both near-misses and collisions. Then statistical analyses are made to estimate the point values and uncertainty for each type of encounter (crossing, head-on, overtaking). Examination of the frequency/number of collisions from actual observations is made. The examination of actual near-misses, potential near-misses, and potential collisions provides comparable results in the number of near-misses and collisions. The potential near-miss analyses include an examination of the timing of responses made by vessels to prevent near-misses. This informed the statistical analysis but may also have utility in the simulation of navigation conflicts.
Here, this study reports results from research conducted at the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP), 2225 m above mean sea level on Pico Island in the Azores archipelago in June and July 2017. We investigated the chemical composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of long-range transported free tropospheric (FT) particles. FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulations reveal that most air masses that arrived at the OMP during the sampling period originated in North America and were highly aged (average plume age > 10 days). We probed size-resolved chemical composition, mixing state, and hygroscopicity parameter ($\mathcal{κ}$) of individual particles using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX). Based on the estimated individual particle mass from elemental composition, we calculated the mixing state index, $χ$. During our study, FT particle populations were internally mixed ($χ$ of samples are between 53% and 87%), owing to the long atmospheric aging time. We used data from a miniature Cloud Condensation Nucleus Counter (miniCCNC) to derive the hygroscopicity parameter, $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC . Combining $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC and FLEXPART, we found that air masses recirculated above the North Atlantic Ocean with lower mean altitude had higher $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC due to the higher contribution of sea salt particles. We used CCSEM-EDX and phase state measurements to predict single-particle $\mathcal{κ}$ ($\mathcal{κ}$ CCSEM-EDX ) values, which overlap with the lower range of $\mathcal{κ}$ CCNC measured below 0.15 % SS. Therefore, CCSEM-EDX measurements can be useful in predicting the lower bound of $\mathcal{κ}$, which can be used in climate models to predict CCN activities, especially in remote locations where online CCN measurements are unavailable.