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At least 415 records · Page 23

Improved Neutron Lifetime Measurement with UCN$\tau$

In this work, we report an improved measurement of the free neutron lifetime $\tau_n$ using the UCN$\tau$ apparatus at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. We count a total of approximately 38×10 6 surviving ultracold neutrons (UCNs) after storing in UCN$\tau$’s magnetogravitational trap over two data acquisition campaigns in 2017 and 2018. We extract $\tau$ n from three blinded, independent analyses by both pairing long and short storage time runs to find a set of replicate $\tau$ n measurements and by performing a global likelihood fit to all data while self-consistently incorporating the β-decay lifetime. Both techniques achieve consistent results and find a value $\tau$ n =877.75±0.28 stat +0.22/–0.16 syst s. With this sensitivity, neutron lifetime experiments now directly address the impact of recent refinements in our understanding of the standard model for neutron decay.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Science-Focused Artificial Intelligence (AI) Responding in Real-Time to New Information: Capability Demonstration for Ocean World Missions

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been considered a potential mechanism to explore increasingly challenging environments, including those with extreme temperatures and pressures, limited communication capabilities, or those with demanding terrain. We posit that missions in extreme environments could deploy an onboard AI focused on science observations and goals in order to augment a traditional concept(s) of operations (ConOps). An onboard AI capability could perform functions such as data analysis in order to make high-level decisions, including prioritized data transmission for analysis by ground-based teams or autonomously-guided follow-on analyses that maximize science return. Such a capability would empower missions to respond to scientific data of interest in real-time; a mission could make observations and perform a preliminary analysis to alert ground-based scientists to an observation of interest, enabling an informed, rapid response from Earth-based teams. Enceladus Case Study for Onboard AI: We are developing an onboard AI capability for real-time telemetry response that formulates and carries-out informed decisions in service to established mission goals, enabling increased science return of a mission. We focus our AI development for use on a constellation of SmallSats orbiting Enceladus. Our Enceladus case study tests autonomous decision-making capabilities in scenarios with complex orbital dynamics, plume ejecta, extreme cold environments, power restrictions, and a requirement to maximize science return for a potential positive detection of life, while critically evaluating the potential for false positives. Telemetry includes simulated scientific data, spacecraft onboard operational data (e.g., position, velocity, and rotation), and engineering hardware performance data. Enceladus SmallSat Constellation. Our constellation includes eight SmallSat spacecraft in an 8:35 resonant orbit-based formation, leveraging Saturn’s gravitational forces to maintain stable orbits with global coverage around Enceladus. To our knowledge, we simulate the first stable configuration of multiple spacecraft in closed orbits around Enceladus, using a full ephemeris force model (Russell and Lara, 2009). Each spacecraft’s orbit will precess, causing an eastward ground track shift (from an orbiter’s perspective) of each spacecraft for each orbit. However, all spacecraft return to their original positions relative to Enceladus after eight Enceladus revolutions around Saturn. We model communication pathways between SmallSats to understand how information would need to be transmitted across the constellation to enable AI-driven decision-making and resource allocation across the fleet. Capability Demonstration. Our simulated capability demonstration inputs position, velocity, and rotation telemetry from our Enceladus-focused constellation simulations, and mass spectrometry data collected from abiotic and biotic laboratory-analog ocean world experiments (Theiling et al., 2018; Theiling, 2021; Da Poian et al., 2023). Data from these experiments are used to simulate MS measurements and different scenarios of science observations for onboard analysis performed on each of the eight spacecraft. For these demonstrations, we integrate 24 machine learning (ML) algorithms into an onboard intelligence as a ‘knowledge base’, including algorithms evaluating data quality and those predicting (with % confidence) gas composition, ocean aqueous chemistry, and whether the sample was influenced by microbial life. The onboard AI capability is designed to use the knowledge base to come to a consensus-based decision in the interpretation of the observed data in order to request additional action outside of a pre-defined ConOps. Requested actions could include e.g., prioritized downlink to Earth (for analysis by ground-based teams) or follow-on analyses performed across the constellation. The spacecraft’s intelligent onboard planner must then determine whether sufficient resources (e.g., time, power, etc.) are available and weigh the request with mission priorities. In our simulation, the constellation is able to identify potential biosignatures using onboard ML algorithms, evaluate the confidence of that prediction, and perform follow-on analyses across the fleet to confirm the detection, in order to best prepare a transmission of these data to Earth-based teams.

astrobiology↗

The Global Fire Atlas of Individual Fire Size, Duration, Speed and Direction

Natural and human-ignited fires affect all major biomes, altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition. Satellite observations provide global data on spatiotemporal patterns of biomass burning and evidence for the rapid changes in global fire activity in response to land management and climate. Satellite imagery also provides detailed information on the daily or sub-daily position of fires that can be used to understand the dynamics of individual fires. The Global Fire Atlas is a new global dataset that tracks the dynamics of individual fires to determine the timing and location of ignitions, fire size and duration, and daily expansion, fire line length, speed, and direction of spread. Here, we present the underlying methodology and Global Fire Atlas results for 2003–2016 derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data. The algorithm identified 13.3 million individual fires over the study period, and estimated fire perimeters were in good agreement with independent data for the continental United States. A small number of large fires dominated sparsely populated arid and boreal ecosystems, while burned area in agricultural and other human-dominated landscapes was driven by high ignition densities that resulted in numerous smaller fires. Long-duration fires in boreal regions and natural landscapes in the humid tropics suggest that fire season length exerts a strong control on fire size and total burned area in these areas. In arid ecosystems with low fuel densities, high fire spread rates resulted in large, short-duration fires that quickly consumed available fuels. Importantly, multiday fires contributed the majority of burned area in all biomass burning regions. A first analysis of the largest, longest and fastest fires that occurred around the world revealed coherent regional patterns of extreme fires driven by large-scale climate forcing. Global Fire Atlas data are publicly available through http://www.globalfiredata.org (last access: 9 August 2018) and https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1642, and individual fire information and summary data products provide new information for benchmarking fire models within ecosystem and Earth system models, understanding vegetation–fire feedbacks, improving global emissions estimates, and characterizing the changing role of fire in the Earth system.

global fire atlas↗

Southern Ocean Cloud Properties Derived From CAPRICORN and MARCUS Data

The properties of Southern Ocean (SO) liquid phase non precipitating clouds (hereafter clouds) are examined using shipborne data collected during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds over the Southern Ocean and the Clouds Aerosols Precipitation Radiation and atmospheric Composition Over the SoutheRN ocean I and II campaigns that took place south of Australia during Autumn 2016 and Summer 2017–2018. Cloud properties are derived using data from W-band radars, lidars, and microwave radiometers using an optimal estimation algorithm. The SO clouds tended to have larger liquid water paths (LWP, 115 ± 117 g m -2 ), smaller effective radii (re, 8.7 ± 3 μm), and higher number concentrations (N d , 90 ± 107 cm-3) than typical values of eastern ocean basin stratocumulus. The clouds demonstrated a tendency for the LWP to increase with Nd presumably due to precipitation suppression up to Nd of approximately 100 cm -3 when mean LWP decreased with increasing Nd. Due to higher optical depth, cloud albedos were less susceptible to changes in Nd compared to subtropical stratocumulus. The highest latitude clouds of the datasets, observed along and near the Antarctic coast, presented a distinctly bimodal character. One mode had the properties of marine clouds further north. Additionally, the other mode occurred in an aerosol environment characterized by high cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and elevated sulfate aerosol without obvious continental aerosol markers. These regions of higher cloud condensation nuclei tended to have higher Nd, smaller re and higher LWP suggesting sensitivity of cloud properties to seasonal biogenic aerosol production in the high latitude SO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Health Physics Enrollments and Degrees Survey, 2019 Data (Brief 83)

The survey includes degrees granted between September 1, 2018 and August 31, 2019. Enrollment information refers to the fall 2019 term. The enrollments and degrees data include students majoring in health physics or in an option program equivalent to a major. Of the 19 health physics programs surveyed, responses were received from 15 programs. Some nuclear engineering programs have indicated that health physics option enrollments and degrees are also reported in the nuclear engineering survey.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

MLClouds [SWR-24-24]

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is NREL’s flagship solar data resource. With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the NSRDB is a crucial public data asset. A fundamental input to accurate surface irradiance in the NSRDB is high quality cloud property data. Cloud properties are used in radiative transfer calculations and are sourced from satellite imagery. Improving the accuracy of cloud property inputs is a tractable method for improving the accuracy of the irradiance data in the NSRDB. For example, in July of 2018, an average location in the Continental United States is missing cloud property data for nearly one quarter of all daylight cloudy timesteps. This project aims to improve the cloud data inputs to the NSRDB by using machine learning techniques to exploit the NSRDB’s massive data resources. More accurate cloud property input data will yield more accurate surface irradiance data in the NSRDB, providing direct benefit to researchers at NREL and to public data users everywhere.

Buster, Grant↗

Search for a charged Higgs boson decaying into a heavy neutral Higgs boson and a W boson in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for a charged Higgs boson H ± decaying into a heavy neutral Higgs boson H and a W boson is presented. The analysis targets the H decay into a pair of tau leptons with at least one of them decaying hadronically and with an additional electron or muon present in the event. The search is based on proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment during 2016–2018 at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . The data are consistent with standard model background expectations. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the cross section and branching fraction for an H ± in the mass range of 300–700 GeV, assuming an H with a mass of 200 GeV. The observed limits range from 0.085 pb for an H ± mass of 300 Ge V to 0.019 pb for a mass of 700 GeV. These are the first limits on H ± production in the H ± → HW ± decay channel at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bhutan Water Resources III: Analyzing Forest Disturbances and Climate Data in Bhutan to Create a Tool for Assisting the Himalayan Environment Rhythm Observation and Evaluation Systems (HEROES) Project

Forest disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks are a major concern in Bhutan, known to cause extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER), the Bhutan Foundation, and the Karuna Foundation to assess forest changes for the districts of Bumthang and Haa from 2000 to 2018. The project used preprocessed meteorological data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), along with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to assess apparent forest disturbance occurrences and observed climate trends. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was used to resolve variations in elevation and slope for mountainous regions. Using the Google Earth Engine LandTrendr (LT) code algorithm, along with Landsat data, the team developed an app called Forest Disturbances Detection Toolbox (FDDT) to assess forest changes in Bhutan. The app includes climate variables for the focus districts, along with LT variables, which allows the end users to further examine the cause of disturbances. The team compared geocoordinates for known disturbances with LT disturbance detection products. Although additional work is needed in the future to validate the project end products from the FDDT, the tool will be provided to the project partners to aid forest management efforts in Bhutan.

Tashi Choden↗

Leaf Nitrogen and Carbon Content, and Leaf Mass Per Area, Kougarok Road, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018

Nitrogen and carbon content, leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf water content (LWC) of leaves sampled from locations on the Kougarok mile marker 64 NGEE Arctic site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Samples were collected in July 2018 from Alnus viridis, Betula nana, Betula glandulosa, Arctostaphylos alpina and Salix pulchra. This data package includes leaf sample information and trait data (*.csv). Metadata files include data descriptions (_dd.csv) for tabular data and a key to species symbols used in data files. All included files are listed and described in NGA207_flmd.csv. See data package NGA208 "Full spectrum 350-2500 nm canopy spectral reflectance, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018" for linked canopy spectral reflectance data, dGPS locations and sample photographs. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

First Calorimetric Energy Reconstruction of Beam Events with ARAPUCA Light Detector in ProtoDUNE-SP

ProtoDUNE Single Phase at CERN is the large scale prototype for the far detector of the future DUNE experiment. ProtoDUNE is in stable operation since Oct. 2018 at the CERN Neutrino Platform. Test beam data in the energy range of sub-GeV to a few GeV were collected in fall 2018 providing a set of key measurements. Particles (electrons, protons, pions, muons and kaons) are identified combining information from a set of beam-line detectors (Time of Flight, Cherenkov) and TPC reconstruction. Three different technologies are implemented in the protoDUNE photon detector system (PDS). Results from the ARAPUCA response, one of the PDS components, are presented providing first calorimetric energy measurements and particle ID of beam events from LAr scintillation light signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Pierre Auger Observatory open data

The Pierre Auger Collaboration has embraced the concept of open access to their research data since its foundation, with the aim of giving access to the widest possible community. A gradual process of release began as early as 2007 when 1% of the cosmic-ray data was made public, along with 100% of the space-weather information. In February 2021, a portal was released containing 10% of cosmic-ray data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory from 2004 to 2018, during the first phase of operation of the Observatory. The Open Data Portal includes detailed documentation about the detection and reconstruction procedures, analysis codes that can be easily used and modified and, additionally, visualization tools. Since then, the Portal has been updated and extended. In 2023, a catalog of the highest-energy cosmic-ray events examined in depth has been included. A specific section dedicated to educational use has been developed with the expectation that these data will be explored by a wide and diverse community, including professional and citizen scientists, and used for educational and outreach initiatives. This paper describes the context, the spirit, and the technical implementation of the release of data by the largest cosmic-ray detector ever built and anticipates its future developments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Site-level Foliar C, N, delta13C data from samples collected during field survey associated with NEON AOP survey, East River, CO 2018

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) weight percent concentrations were obtained from the bulk foliar samples collected across East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds in Gunnison, Colorado during the summer of 2018. These samples were collected from sun-lit leaves of meadow, shrub, and tree vegetation types within 72 hours of the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) hyperspectral survey. These samples were dried and then run on an elemental analyzer coupled to a mass spectrometer for C and N concentrations and delta13C. The intention of these data were to provide ground truth data to develop foliar nutrient models across the imaging spectroscopy domain. Additional associated site metadata and vegetation fractional cover information can be found in the associated data releases (DOI: 10.15485/1618130). Here we provide site level C, N, and delta 13C data in the CN_Results_Foliar.csv. All of these samples were also registered with IGSN codes, and the details from that registration with metadata for the samples is included in foliar_sample_igsn_metadata.csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Spatial Pattern Analysis of Forest Loss in the Madre de Dios Region, Peru

Previous studies have quantified the expansion of gold mining-related forest loss (Espejo et al., 2018; Asner et al., 2017; Swenson et al., 2011) in the Madre de Dios region of Peru. This study uses Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) in a cloud-computing platform to map general forest loss within and outside key land tenure areas in this region. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) Surface Reflectance data were utilized spanning 2013 and 2018 and spectral unmixing was performed to identify patterns of forest loss for each year. Planet Scope and RapidEye imagery were used to conduct an accuracy assessment and to identify potential drivers.

Puzzi Nicolau, Andrea↗

Future SAR Imaging Systems: Goals, Plans, Challenges and Opportunities

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Earth observation data are becoming increasingly ubiquitous as new spaceborne systems become operational and their data are made available to scientists and applications users. The characteristic of active sensors like SAR to be able to observe Earth independent of weather or solar illumination, coupled with regular data acquisition, fosters reliability and encourages the investment in algorithm and product development toward a beneficial result. As SAR systems typically contain proprietary or nationally important technologies, civilian SAR systems are typically developed with a national focus, or in the case of the European Union, with the Union’s focus. As a result, when viewed from a global perspective, SAR programs can be generally viewed as independent developments, each with their own requirements, schedules, development approaches, and data policies. At the same time, these systems can be expensive, and particularly in an era of increasingly open data policies, coordination of programs could reduce redundancy in observations, increase sampling density and measurement diversity, and improve dependability of data streams in the long term. Since 2018, agency representatives from NASA, ESA, DLR, JAXA, ISRO, ASI, and CONAE have been evaluating the possibilities for programmatic and technical coordination of future SAR systems, data sharing, and scientific exploitation. In this paper, we describe the work in discovering trends and possibilities associated with flight systems, by evaluating current and future plans for SAR systems around the world, and identifying opportunities for coordination.

Zink, Manfred↗

Custom surface reflectance, shade mask, and equivalent water thickness maps for the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (2025)

This dataset contains land surface reflectance estimates and additional derived products generated from NEON Imaging Spectrometer (NIS) data collected in the Upper Gunnison river basin during June and July of 2025. Data was collected over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). These products were derived from radiance and LiDAR data collected by the NEON Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) campaign funded by the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) (doi:10.15485/3017965). Products include per-pixel surface reflectance (rfl) and reflectance uncertainty (rfl_unc), observational data (obs), canopy equivalent water thickness (ewt), and shade masks. Atmospheric correction was performed per flightline using the ISOFIT (Imaging Spectrometer Optimal FITting) optimal estimation framework to estimate surface reflectance and the associated per-band reflectance uncertainty. Reflectance retrievals achieved a mean absolute error of 1.5% across diverse validation surfaces (see validation report.pdf). Equivalent water thickness was calculated from surface reflectance using the Beer–Lambert absorption of liquid water. Shade masks were generated based on the geometry between the sun angle, ground surface, and sensor at the time of flight. Data products are provided per-flightline and as mosaics for each domain. Flightline data products are provided as ENVI-formatted binary files (rfl, rfl_unc, ewt) and GeoTIFFs (shade). Reflectance and uncertainty mosaics are provided as tiled NetCDFs, while all other mosaicked products are provided as cloud-optimized GeoTIFFs. These formats are supported by common geospatial software (e.g., QGIS, ArcGIS, ENVI) and programmatic libraries in Python (e.g., rasterio, xarray, spectral, netCDF4) and R (e.g., terra, ncdf4). Processing workflows were designed to be equivalent to those used to generate the 2018 CHESS campaign airborne imaging spectroscopy data products (doi:10.15485/3013527). All outputs were co-registered to a common spatial grid to support time series analyses. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: Data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). Computational research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) and was funded by EMIT Extended Mission Phase E Science.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

WTK-LED: The WIND Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset

To satisfy a wide group of stakeholders across various wind energy disciplines, including but not limited to stakeholders in the distributed and utility scale wind industry, the new emerging airborne wind energy field, grid integration, power systems modeling, environmental modeling, and researchers in academia, and to close some of the gaps that current public datasets have, we aimed at developing an updated version of the meteorological WIND Toolkit, named WIND Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED), which is a meteorological dataset providing time series every 5 min and 2 km, including model uncertainty of wind speed at every modeling grid point so that users are provided with a range of possible wind speeds every 2 km. The data were produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The vertical grid used in WTK-LED includes many vertical layers in the atmospheric boundary layer to provide information of atmospheric quantities across the rotor layer of utility scale and distributed wind turbines. The WTK-LED includes: 1) Numerical simulations covering the continental United States, Alaska, and Hawaii, with high-resolution data being available for 3 years (2018-2020). 2) Climate simulations from Argonne National Laboratories covering the North American continent, including Alaska, Canada, and most of Mexico and the Caribbean Islands. These simulations complement the new WTK-LED to offer a 4-km dataset covering 20 years, from 2001-2020. 3) Specific long-term,high-resolution offshore simulations have been conducted separately for the US coasts, Hawaii, and the Great Lakes, leading to the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set. This report focuses on a description of the land-based WTK-LED for CONUS, Hawaii, and Alaska, for the 3-year 2-km/5-min dataset and the 20-year 4-km/hourly dataset, as well as the uncertainty quantification method. We also provide limited validation results. Based on our results to date, we suggest use cases and applications for each dataset of the WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improved Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves using Planck , WMAP, and BICEP/ Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

Here, we present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2, Keck Array, and BICEP3 CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2018 observing season. We add additional Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and BICEP3 observations at 95 GHz to the previous 95/150/220 GHz dataset. The Q/U maps now reach depths of 2.8, 2.8, and 8.8 μK CMB arcmin at 95,150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈ 600 square degrees at 95 GHz and ≈ 400 square degrees at 150 and 220 GHz. The 220 GHz maps now achieve a signal-to-noise ratio on polarized dust emission exceeding that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto- and cross-spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz and evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed ΛCDM + r + dust + synchrotron + noise . The foreground model has seven parameters, and no longer requires a prior on the frequency spectral index of the dust emission taken from measurements on other regions of the sky. This model is an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r 0.05 < 0.036 at 95% confidence. Running maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r) = 0.009 . These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗