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At least 397 records · Page 22

Impact of model improvements on 80 m wind speeds during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2)

Abstract. During the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2; October 2015–March 2017, held in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin area of eastern Washington and Oregon states), several improvements to the parameterizations used in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR – 3 km horizontal grid spacing) and the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Nest (HRRRNEST – 750 m horizontal grid spacing) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models were tested during four 6-week reforecast periods (one for each season). For these tests the models were run in control (CNT) and experimental (EXP) configurations, with the EXP configuration including all the improved parameterizations. The impacts of the experimental parameterizations on the forecast of 80 m wind speeds (wind turbine hub height) from the HRRR and HRRRNEST models are assessed, using observations collected by 19 sodars and three profiling lidars for comparison. Improvements due to the experimental physics (EXP vs. CNT runs) and those due to finer horizontal grid spacing (HRRRNEST vs. HRRR) and the combination of the two are compared, using standard bulk statistics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (bias). On average, the HRRR 80 m wind speed MAE is reduced by 3 %–4 % due to the experimental physics. The impact of the finer horizontal grid spacing in the CNT runs also shows a positive improvement of 5 % on MAE, which is particularly large at nighttime and during the morning transition. Lastly, the combined impact of the experimental physics and finer horizontal grid spacing produces larger improvements in the 80 m wind speed MAE, up to 7 %–8 %. The improvements are evaluated as a function of the model's initialization time, forecast horizon, time of the day, season of the year, site elevation, and meteorological phenomena. Causes of model weaknesses are identified. Finally, bias correction methods are applied to the 80 m wind speed model outputs to measure their impact on the improvements due to the removal of the systematic component of the errors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability: Preprint

Wake steering is a type of wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes wake steering controllers to increase power production less than predicted by steady state models, but more robust wake steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two 2-turbine wake steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

HOMP (Hybrid Operation and Maintenance Platform) [SWR-22-81]

The HOMP software module is contained within NREL's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) at this URL: https://github.com/NREL/HOPP/tree/feature/HOMP. HOMP is a python-based software module which can be used concurrently with the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) to model, simulate, and optimize degradation, reliability, and operations and maintenance of hybrid power plant components. The program currently models lithium ion battery, PEM electrolyzer, wind turbine, and solar PV array components, which enables users to understand the design and operation tradeoffs of hybrid power plants. For instance, HOMP enables users to answer questions like: how large does a battery bank need to be to achieve optimal charge/discharge rates for performance and reliability? How does plant design change for different objectives (e.g., profit versus resilience)? Under what conditions is it better to produce electricity versus hydrogen? How do we optimally control hybrid power plants to reduce downtime and increase performance?

Clark, Caitlyn↗

Aerial Inspection Planner

SAND2025-04581O Aerial Inspection Planner is a software tool that creates aerial trajectories for full coverage of a 3D object at minimum cost. It can be used for inspection of aircraft, buildings, ships, wind turbines, etc. It uses a 3D model of the object, and given the coverage constraints, outputs an efficient flight path for a UAV to follow.Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Moon, Brady↗

Compare linear-system solver and preconditioner stacks with emphasis on GPU performance and propose phase-2 NGP solver development pathway

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind project are Nalu-Wind, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and OpenFAST, which is a whole-turbine simulation code. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. In this report we evaluated GPU-performance baselines for the linear solvers in the Trilinos and hypre solver stacks using two representative Nalu-Wind simulations: an atmospheric boundary layer precursor simulation on a structured mesh, and a fixed-wing simulation using unstructured overset meshes. Both strong-scaling and weak-scaling experiments were conducted on the OLCF supercomputer Summit and similar proxy clusters. We focused on the performance of multi-threaded Gauss-Seidel and two-stage Gauss-Seidel that are extensions of classical Gauss-Seidel; of one-reduce GMRES, a communication-reducing variant of the Krylov GMRES; and algebraic multigrid methods that incorporate the afore-mentioned methods. The team has established that AMG methods are capable of solving linear systems arising from the fixed-wing overset meshes on CPU, a critical intermediate result for ExaWind FY20 Q3 and Q4 milestones. For the fixed-wing strong-scaling study (model with 3M grid-points), the team identified that Nalu-Wind simulations with the new Trilinos and hypre solvers scale to modest GPU counts, maintaining above 70% efficiency up to 6 GPUs. However, there still remain significant bottlenecks to performance: matrix assembly (hypre), AMG setup (hypre and Trilinos) In the weak-scaling experiments (going from 0.4M to 211M gridpoints), it's shown that the solver apply phases are faster on GPUs, but that Nalu-Wind simulation times grow, primarily due to the multigrid-setup process. Finally, based on the report outcomes, we propose a linear solver path-forward for the remainder of the ExaWind project. Near term, the NREL team will continue their work on GPU-based linear-system assembly. They will also investigate how the use of alternatives to the NVIDIA UVM (unified virtual memory) paradigm affects performance. Longer term, the NREL team will evaluate algorithmic performance on other types of accelerators and merge their improvements back to the main hypre repository branch. Near term, the Trilinos team will address performance bottlenecks identified in this milestone, such as implementing a GPU-based segregated momentum solve and reusing matrix graphs across linear-system assembly phases. Longer term, the Trilinos team will do detailed analysis and optimization of multigrid setup.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Performance and Feasibility Analysis of a Wind Turbine Power System for Use on Mars

A wind turbine power system for future missions to the Martian surface was studied for performance and feasibility. A C++ program was developed from existing FORTRAN code to analyze the power capabilities of wind turbines under different environments and design philosophies. Power output, efficiency, torque, thrust, and other performance criteria could be computed given design geometries, atmospheric conditions, and airfoil behavior. After reviewing performance of such a wind turbine, a conceptual system design was modeled to evaluate feasibility. More analysis code was developed to study and optimize the overall structural design. Findings of this preliminary study show that turbine power output on Mars could be as high as several hundred kilowatts. The optimized conceptual design examined here would have a power output of 104 kW, total mass of 1910 kg, and specific power of 54.6 W/kg.

Lichter, Matthew D.↗

Structural Load Alleviation Applied to Next Generation Aircraft and Wind Turbines

Reducing the environmental impact of aviation is a goal of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Project under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program of NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. Environmental impact of aviation is being addressed by novel aircraft configurations and materials that reduce aircraft weight and increase aerodynamic efficiency. NASA is developing tools to address the challenges of increased airframe flexibility created by wings constructed with reduced structural material and novel light-weight materials. This talk will present a framework and demonstration of a flight control system using optimal control allocation with structural load feedback and constraints to achieve safe aircraft operation. As wind turbines age, they become susceptible to many forms of blade degradation. Results will be presented on work in progress that uses adaptive contingency control for load mitigation in a wind turbine simulation with blade damage progression modeled.

adaptive control↗

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

The Optimal Wind Turbine Design for Hydrogen Production work seeks to address the H2@Scale program's goal to "advance affordable hydrogen production" by optimizing the wind turbine design specifically for hydrogen (H2) production. The project identifies optimal wind turbine designs made specifically for hydrogen production to advance affordable green hydrogen production. The project also couples wind turbine, wind plant, solar plant, and electrolyzer models to predict hydrogen production from variable, renewable power sources.

electrolyzer↗

2022 Component Innovation Awardee: Pecos Wind Power

Distributed wind energy systems supply electricity for nearby homes and businesses, often in remote and rural regions. Systems capable of capturing energy in areas with low wind speeds make it possible to deploy these clean energy systems in many geographic locations. Pecos Wind Power's 85-kilowatt (kW) horizontal-axis PW85 wind turbine shows potential to reduce the levelized cost of energy by approximately 55% when compared to typical small wind systems while achieving utility-scale capacity factors of more than 40% in areas with lower wind speeds. To maximize cost competitiveness, the Pecos Wind Power turbine needs a blade optimized for low wind speeds. Through its 2022 Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) award, Pecos Wind Power and partner Wetzel Wind Energy Services will model, optimize, fabricate, and validate a 14.5-meter wind turbine blade made specifically for these applications. Three prior CIP awards supported Pecos Wind Power's initial development of the PW85 turbine.

CIP↗

Using intrusive approaches as a step towards accounting for stochasticity in wind turbine design

Current wind turbine design methods require tens of thousands of time-domain simulations and use different random seeds to account for the stochasticity of the environmental conditions. The account of stochasticity is nonintrusive because the sampling method calls a deterministic model multiple times without changing its underlying equations. In this work, we investigate and demonstrate using simple proof of concepts how intrusive approaches can be used to directly account for stochasticity in the equations representing a mechanical system. Our long term goal is to apply such methodology to the design of wind turbines without requiring an excessive number of simulations. Intrusive methods manipulate stochastic variables directly to provide the probability density functions (PDFs) of the states and outputs at any time as functions of the PDFs of the inputs. We illustrate how different methods can be used with a reduced-order model of a wind turbine with one degree of freedom and for linear and nonlinear models. We discuss how the methods can be extended and what it will take to apply them to a level of fidelity similar to current state-of-the-art wind turbine design tools.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Aggregation of Inverter-Based Resources for Modeling and Simulation

In order to conduct system dynamic studies, it is necessary to have dynamic models of both inverter and plant levels. Detailed and aggregated modeling approaches are two essential options. The detailed modeling method involves capturing the dynamic characteristics of each individual device (e.g., wind turbine or PV array), as well as their interconnections. However, as the scale of the IBR plant increases, the complexity and computation time required for detailed modeling also increase. On the other hand, aggregated modeling offers a more efficient way of representing large-scale IBRs in power system dynamic studies. This approach involves aggregating a large number of wind turbines, PV arrays, inverters, and/or plant controllers into one or a smaller number of equivalent models. In order to analyze the impact of a high-level IBR penetration in power systems, it is important to develop accurate and computationally efficient models for both the detailed and aggregated methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The sensitivity of the Fitch wind farm parameterization to a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme

Abstract. Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds often significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, as of the Weather Research and Forecasting model v4.3.3, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. We simulate a wind plant in pseudo-steady states under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with matching hub-height wind speeds using two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, average hub-height wind speed losses within the plant differ between PBL schemes by between −0.20 and 0.22 m s−1, and correspondingly, capacity factors range between 39.5 %–53.8 %. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Automatic Generation Control of Wind Farms

This paper provides a model-free framework for real-time control of wind farms to accurately track a power reference signal. This problem requires tractable dynamical models for capturing the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines and controllers that can make decisions in realtime given varying atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework to provide real-time yaw control of a wind farm. Modifications have been made to FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS), a modeling tool that incorporates transient wake behavior. The control problem is formulated to track a synthetic power reference signal based on historical atmospheric (wind speed and direction) information, price signals, and regulation deployment data from U.S. regional transmission operators. Results indicate that a wind farm, with this control paradigm, can achieve good tracking performance when tested with real atmospheric data.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

ORBIT: Offshore Renewables Balance-of-System and Installation Tool

This report describes the Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool ("ORBIT"), a new model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the balance-of-system (BOS) costs associated with offshore wind projects. In the context of wind energy projects BOS costs encompass all expenses required to construct a project other than the capital expenditures (CapEx) of the turbines and towers, including the procurement costs for all other components (such as substructures, cables, and electrical infrastructure), offshore and land-based construction costs, port costs, site surveying fees, permitting fees, and leasing fees are all categorized as BOS costs. BOS costs significantly contribute to the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for offshore wind, typically comprising over 50\% of the CapEx for a fixed-bottom offshore wind project and 60\% for a floating project. In addition, technology solutions and installation methods vary drastically between projects as they are impacted by factors such as vessel availability, geographic considerations and site geotechnical conditions. These effects require a model with appropriate fidelity to understand how these costs scale as turbine rating increases and the offshore wind supply chain, particularly offshore construction vessels, is expanded. For offshore wind, cost savings attributed to increased turbine rating are primarily realized through BOS procurement and project installation as fewer substructures and less cable are required. BOS costs represent both a modeling challenge, as well as an opportunity, for project developers to optimize solutions to reduce costs. It is critical to understand how these costs are affected by novel technologies, innovative installation processes, and operational constraints in order identify meaningful cost reductions for offshore wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Coupled aero-hydro-geotech real-time hybrid simulation of offshore wind turbine monopile structures

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) divides a structural system into an analytical and experimental substructure. The former is based on a well-established analytical model while the latter consists of a physical model in the laboratory, for which there is not a well-established analytical model. This paper extends real-time hybrid simulation to monopile-type Offshore Wind Turbines (OWTs) to enable the investigation of their behavior considering the response of pile foundations under operational and more severe conditions. The embedded foundation and surrounding soil of the OWT are modeled physically in a soil box in the laboratory while the remaining parts of the system and loading are modeled analytically. The program OpenFAST, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is linked to the RTHS coordinator to determine the hydrodynamic and aerodynamic loads acting on the OWT, along with modeling the dynamics of the electric power generation equipment and associated controller for the OWT. The RTHS framework along with its initial implementation and validation are described in this paper. RTHSs of a 5 MW OWT subjected to operational and more severe conditions are performed to experimentally validate the framework. The framework offers a realistic approach to investigate the behavior of OWT structures supported on monopiles. Furthermore, this approach accounts for the coupled response of the OWT structure with its foundation, while experimentally capturing the nonlinearities of the soil-foundation interaction in real-time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗