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At least 397 records · Page 22

Correlating isothermal compressibility to nucleon fluctuations in the inner crust of neutron stars

The question of how and which physical observables or thermodynamic parameters can best predict the onset of a possible phase transition in the inner crust of neutron stars remains largely unresolved. Here, using semiclassical Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the isothermal compressibility and density fluctuations in a region of relevance to the dynamics of the inner crust. We show that the isothermal compressibility serves as a robust observable to characterize the transition from the nonuniform crust to the uniform core for proton fractions over 0.2. Moreover, we show explicitly how the two-component isothermal compressibility, computed using the Kirkwood-Buff theory, is directly connected to the fluctuations in the number density, recorded in the grand canonical ensemble by monitoring the number of particles in a small volume located at the center of the simulation box. That is, we compute mean-square particle fluctuations and compare them against the isothermal compressibility for different proton fractions. Although our results show that the mean-square particle fluctuations are proportional to the isothermal compressibility, the lack of a perfect correlation is attributed to the relatively small number of particles included in the simulations. The nonunity slope observed in the dimensionless isothermal compressibility—total nucleon fluctuation variance relationship suggests that the inner crust of neutron stars is composed of anisotropic and inhomogeneous matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Surface Fluxes Derived from Operational Analyses

Operational numerical weather prediction systems assimilate tremendous amounts of observations to produce global analyses of the atmospheric states. Since the systems include significant contributions from the model components, physical fields, such as the turbulent heat fluxes, can also be derived. However, the physical fields are indirectly constrained by the data assimilation, and so subject to uncertainty in the model parameterizations. Recently, 10 international operational analyses have been collected and reprocessed through the Coordinated Enhanced. Observing Period (CEOP). Comparisons against independent observations (global precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation) show that while there is significant range of the individual analyses, the ensemble of analyses provide data closest the observations. Here, we evaluate the collection of land surface turbulent heat fluxes. The data are available for Oct 2002 - Dec 2004, at 6 hourly, daily and monthly intervals. An ensemble mean and its variance have been computed. we will analyze the range of analysis results at daily and seasonal time scales, and where possible compare with existing observations.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Compositional effects on cure kinetics, mechanical properties and printability of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate resins for DIW additive manufacturing

Interest in 3D printing of thermoset resins has increased significantly in recent years. One approach to additive manufacturing of thermoset resins is printing dual-cure resins with direct ink write (DIW). Dual-cure resins are multi-component resins which employ an in situ curable constituent to enable net-shape fabrication while a second constituent and cure mechanism contribute to the final mechanical properties of the printed materials. In this work, the cure kinetics, green strength, printability, and print fidelity of dual-cure epoxy/acrylate thermoset resins are investigated. Resin properties are evaluated as a function of acrylate concentration and in situ UV exposure conditions. The acrylate cure kinetics are probed using photo-differential scanning calorimetry and the impacts of resin composition and UV cure profile on the acrylate extent of conversion are presented. Continuous and pulsed UV cure profiles are shown to affect total conversion due to variances in radical efficiency at different UV intensities and acrylate concentrations. The effects of acrylate concentration on the kinetics of the epoxy thermal cure and the final mechanical properties are also investigated using dynamic mechanical analysis and three-point bend measurements. The glass transition temperature is dependent on formulation, with increasing acrylate content decreasing the T g . However, the room temperature shear moduli, flexural moduli, strength, strain-to-failure, and toughness values are relatively independent of resin composition. The similarity of the final properties allows for greater flexibility in resin formulation and in situ cure parameters, which can enable the printing of complex parts that require high green strength. We found that the in situ UV print intensities and exposure profiles that are necessary to achieve the best print quality are not, in most cases, the conditions that maximize conversion of the acrylate network. Lastly, this highlights the importance of developing optimized resin compositions which enable complete cure of the acrylate network by promoting acrylate dark cure or thermal cure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Periodic and aperiodic ozone variations in the middle and upper stratosphere

Umkehr, ozonesonde and satellite observations are used to determine the height/latitude distribution of the amplitude and phase of the periodic components of the variation in the ozone mixing ratio in the middle and upper stratosphere. The amplitude of the first (annual) harmonic is found to be small in the subtropics and to increase to a maximum at polar latitudes. In addition, it increases with height in the mid and upper stratosphere to an apparent maximum just below the stratosphere. The second (semi-annual) harmonic possesses an amplitude that is largest in tropical regions and in subpolar regions at a level of about 40 km. Very little ozone variation is seen above 30 km with dominant periods close to the quasi-biennial period of total ozone observed in the tropics. The percentage of the total variance of the ozone mixing ratio accounted for by the first harmonic is found to be larger than 60 percent at all heights from 20 deg to 60 deg latitude in both hemispheres (except near 40 km in the Northern Hemisphere).

London, J.↗

Toward a More Robust Pruning Procedure for MLP Networks

Choosing a proper neural network architecture is a problem of great practical importance. Smaller models mean not only simpler designs but also lower variance for parameter estimation and network prediction. The widespread utilization of neural networks in modeling highlights an issue in human factors. The procedure of building neural models should find an appropriate level of model complexity in a more or less automatic fashion to make it less prone to human subjectivity. In this paper we present a Singular Value Decomposition based node elimination technique and enhanced implementation of the Optimal Brain Surgeon algorithm. Combining both methods creates a powerful pruning engine that can be used for tuning feedforward connectionist models. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by adjusting the structure of a multi-input multi-output model used to calibrate a six-component wind tunnel strain gage.

Stepniewski, Slawomir W.↗

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Phase 1: Evaluation report

It appears that the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment over the Great Plains, can with a reasonable expectation, be a satisfactory component of a 90/90 production estimator. The area estimator produced more accurate area estimates for the total winter wheat region than for the mixed spring and winter wheat region of the northern Great Plains. The accuracy does appear to degrade somewhat in regions of marginal agriculture where there are small fields and abundant confusion crops. However, it would appear that these regions tend also to be marginal with respect to wheat production and thus increased area estimation errors do not greatly influence the overall production estimation accuracy in the United States. The loss of segments resulting from cloud cover appears to be a random phenomenon that introduces no significant bias into the estimates. This loss does increase the variance of the estimates.

Source record↗

Observation of pressure ridges in SAR images of sea ice: Scattering theory and comparison with observations

Ridges and keels (hummocks and bummocks) in sea ice flows are important in sea ice research for both scientific and practical reasons. Sea ice movement and deformation is driven by internal and external stresses on the ice. Ridges and keels play important roles in both cases because they determine the external wind and current stresses via drag coefficients. For example, the drag coefficient over sea ice can vary by a factor of several depending on the fluid mechanical roughness length of the surface. This roughness length is thought to be strongly dependent on the ridge structures present. Thus, variations in ridge and keel structure can cause gradients in external stresses which must be balanced by internal stresses and possibly fracture of the ice. Ridging in sea ice is also a sign of fracture. In a practical sense, large ridges form the biggest impediment to surface travel over the ice or penetration through sea ice by ice-strengthened ships. Ridges also play an important role in the damage caused by sea ice to off-shore structures. Hence, observation and measurement of sea ice ridges is an important component of sea ice remote sensing. The research reported here builds on previous work, estimating the characteristics of ridges and leads in sea ice from SAR images. Our objective is to develop methods for quantitative measurement of sea ice ridges from SAR images. To make further progress, in particular, to estimate ridge height, a scattering model for ridges is needed. Our research approach for a ridge scattering model begins with a survey of the geometrical properties of ridges and a comparison with the characteristics of the surrounding ice. For this purpose we have used airborne optical laser (AOL) data collected during the 1987 Greenland Sea Experiment. These data were used to generate a spatial wavenumber spectrum for height variance for a typical ridge - the typical ridge is the average over 10 large ridges. Our first-order model radar scattering includes both the quasi-specular and Bragg resonant scatter mechanisms. This model is extended to include contributions from volume scatter and scatter from discrete objects. Geometrical characteristics from the AOL survey and model calculations imply that for radar wavelengths and observation geometries that are dominated by the quasi-specular scattering mechanism radar backscatter from a ridge is a measure of peak ridge height. We present scattering model results and compare them with ridges observed during the LEADEX experiment of March-April 1992 when both X, C, and L-band aircraft SAR and the ERS-1 satellite SAR observed a region in the Beaufort Sea near 86 deg N, 10 deg W. Data were also collected documenting ridge characteristics on the surface. The surface data are used to generate a SAR signature via the scattering model described above. The predicted SAR signatures compare well with the SAR observations.

Vesecky, J. F.↗

Vector space methods of photometric analysis. II - Refinement of the MK grid for B stars. III - The two components of ultraviolet reddening

This paper discusses systematic errors which arise from exclusive use of the MK system to determine reddening. It is found that implementation of uvby, beta photometry to refine the qualitative MK grid substantially reduces stellar mismatch error. A working definition of 'identical' ubvy, beta types is investigated and the relationship of uvby to B-V color excesses is determined. A comparison is also made of the hydrogen based uvby, beta types with the MK system based on He and metal lines. A small core correlated effective temperature luminosity error in the MK system for the early B stars is observed along with a breakdown of the MK luminosity criteria for the late B stars. The second part investigates the wavelength dependence of interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet wavelength range observed with the TD-1 satellite. In this study the sets of identical stars employed to find reddening are determined more precisely than in previous studies and consist only of normal, nonsupergiant stars. A multivariate analysis of variance techniques in an unbiased coordinate system is used for determining the wavelength dependence of reddening.

Massa, D.↗

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-Activity Waste Glass Standards Preparation and Characterization for Calibration of Analytical Instruments

A matrix of seven low-activity waste (LAW) glasses was fabricated and characterized to be used by the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) as analytical instrument calibration and matrix interference standards when measuring LAW glass compositions. The matrix of glasses was designed to represent the range of LAW glass compositions that will be generated by the WTP. Samples from each of the seven glasses were measured with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), ion chromatography (IC), and bulk inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) to determine the variability and accuracy across batches and within individually poured glass bar samples. High relative percent differences and standard deviations were calculated for components with low concentrations due to instrument detection limits. IC and ICP-MS percent differences and standard deviations were higher at low component concentrations. Otherwise, variability in measured compositions from IC and ICP-MS was generally lower than measurements from EPMA, with the exclusion of Cl, F, Si, and B. Overall, the two methods proved comparable and complementary. From EPMA, IC, and ICP-MS data, volatile elements were underrepresented compared to batched compositions, which suggested loss of these elements during melting. EPMA data was statistically analyzed to evaluate homogeneity within single bars and whole compositions for each of the seven glasses. Most of the variability within glass compositions occurred at the bar-to-bar level; however, no clear systematic trends were observed. Based on these analyses, when using these glasses as reference material, it is recommended that the overall mean and variance of each composition be used for performing instrument calibrations and analytical corrections.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

B. D. Loomis↗

Regularization and Error Characterization of GRACE Mascons

We present a new global time-variable gravity mascon solution derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Level 1B data. The new product from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) results from a novel approach that combines an iterative solution strategy with geographical binning of inter-satellite range-acceleration residuals in the construction of time-dependent regularization matrices applied in the inversion of mascon parameters. This estimation strategy is intentionally conservative as it seeks to maximize the role of the GRACE measurements on the final solution while minimizing the influence of the regularization design process. We fully reprocess the Level 1B data in the presence of the final mascon solution to generate true post-fit inter-satellite residuals, which are utilized to confirm solution convergence and to validate the mascon noise uncertainties. We also present the mathematical case that regularized mascon solutions are biased, and that this bias, or leakage, must be combined with the estimated noise variance to accurately assess total mascon uncertainties. The estimated leakage errors are determined from the monthly resolution operators. We present a simple approach to compute the total uncertainty for both individual mascon and regional analysis of the GSFC mascon product, and validate the results in comparison with independent mascon solutions and calibrated Stokes uncertainties. Lastly, we present the new solution and uncertainties with global analyses of the mass trends and annual amplitudes, and compute updated trends for the global ocean, and the respective contributions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Antarctic Ice Sheet, Gulf of Alaska, and terrestrial water storage. This analysis highlights the successful closure of the global mean sea level budget, that is, the sum of global ocean mass from the GSFC mascons and the steric component from Argo floats agrees well with the total determined from sea surface altimetry.

Loomis, B. D.↗

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗

Evolution of AISI 304L stainless steel part properties due to powder recycling in laser powder-bed fusion

Selective laser melting (SLM) is a powder-bed fusion process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) that uses a laser beam to selectively fuse layers of powder into near net-shape components with little porosity. However, inconsistencies in the part properties due to the presence of defects in as-built components has hindered the widespread adoption of SLM for industrial applications forcing researchers to study the sources of variation for quality control purposes. A critical area suspected of creating variation in the part properties is the feedstock, where batch-to-batch differences as well as changes in the powder properties with reuse have the potential to affect performance. During processing, laser spatter and condensate eject from the melt pool and deposit into the powder-bed surrounding the parts. These particulates, more commonly known as ejecta, differ morphologically and chemically from the virgin powder compromising its reusability. In this study, 304L stainless steel powder was recycled for a total of 5 times through a systematic approach aimed at accelerating powder degradation to reveal the influence on both the tensile and impact toughness properties. Through analysis of variance (ANOVA), it was found that tensile properties did not change with reuse, while the impact toughness showed a steady decline illustrating the differences in static and dynamic part properties due to powder recycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Foreground-immune CMB lensing reconstruction with polarization

Extragalactic foregrounds are known to generate significant biases in temperature based CMB lensing reconstruction. Several techniques, which include "source hardening'" and "shear-only estimators'' have been proposed to mitigate contamination and have been shown to be very effective at reducing foreground-induced biases. Here we extend both techniques to polarization, which will be an essential component of CMB lensing reconstruction for future experiments and investigate the "large lens'' limit analytically to gain insight on the origin and scaling of foreground biases, as well as the sensitivity to their profiles. Furthermore, using simulations of polarized point sources, we estimate the expected bias to both Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 like (polarization-based) lensing reconstruction, finding that biases to the former are minuscule while those to the latter are potentially non-negligible at small scales ($L$ ~ $1000-2000$). In particular, we show that for a CMB-S4 like experiment, an optimal linear combination of point-source hardened estimators can reduce the (point-source induced) bias to the CMB lensing power spectrum by up to two orders of magnitude, at a ~ 4% noise cost relative to the global minimum variance estimator.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SEDS: The Spitzer Extended Deep Survey. Survey Design, Photometry, and Deep IRAC Source Counts

The Spitzer Extended Deep Survey (SEDS) is a very deep infrared survey within five well-known extragalactic science fields: the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey, the Extended Chandra Deep Field South, COSMOS, the Hubble Deep Field North, and the Extended Groth Strip. SEDS covers a total area of 1.46 deg(exp 2) to a depth of 26 AB mag (3sigma) in both of the warm Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. Because of its uniform depth of coverage in so many widely-separated fields, SEDS is subject to roughly 25% smaller errors due to cosmic variance than a single-field survey of the same size. SEDS was designed to detect and characterize galaxies from intermediate to high redshifts (z = 2-7) with a built-in means of assessing the impact of cosmic variance on the individual fields. Because the full SEDS depth was accumulated in at least three separate visits to each field, typically with six-month intervals between visits, SEDS also furnishes an opportunity to assess the infrared variability of faint objects. This paper describes the SEDS survey design, processing, and publicly-available data products. Deep IRAC counts for the more than 300,000 galaxies detected by SEDS are consistent with models based on known galaxy populations. Discrete IRAC sources contribute 5.6 +/- 1.0 and 4.4 +/- 0.8 nW / square m/sr at 3.6 and 4.5 micron to the diffuse cosmic infrared background (CIB). IRAC sources cannot contribute more than half of the total CIB flux estimated from DIRBE data. Barring an unexpected error in the DIRBE flux estimates, half the CIB flux must therefore come from a diffuse component.

Spitzer↗

Time-on-task decrements in "steer clear" performance of patients with sleep apnea and narcolepsy

Loss of attention with time-on-task reflects the increasing instability of the waking state during performance in experimentally induced sleepiness. To determine whether patients with disorders of excessive sleepiness also displayed time-on-task decrements indicative of wake state instability, visual sustained attention performance on "Steer Clear," a computerized simple RT driving simulation task, was compared among 31 patients with untreated sleep apnea, 16 patients with narcolepsy, and 14 healthy control subjects. Vigilance decrement functions were generated by analyzing the number of collisions in each of six four-minute periods of Steer Clear task performance in a mixed-model analysis of variance and linear regression equations. As expected, patients had more Steer Clear collisions than control subjects (p=0.006). However, the inter-subject variability in errors among the narcoleptic patients was four-fold that of the apnea patients, and 100-fold that of the controls volunteers; the variance in errors among untreated apnea patients was 27-times that of controls. The results of transformed collision data revealed main effects for group (p=0.006), time-on-task (p=0.001), and a significant interaction (p=0.022). Control subjects showed no clear evidence of increasing collision errors with time-on-task (adjusted R2=0.22), while apnea patients showed a trend toward vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.42, p=0.097), and narcolepsy patients evidenced a robust linear vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.87, p=0.004). The association of disorders of excessive somnolence with escalating time-on-task decrements makes it imperative that when assessment of neurobehavioral performance is conducted in patients, it involves task durations and analyses that will evaluate the underlying vulnerability of potentially sleepy patients to decrements over time in tasks that require sustained attention and timely responses, both of which are key components in safe driving performance.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗