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DOE OSTI2024

Variable stiffness magnetic spring

This disclosure presents a new type of variable stiffness magnetic spring, which can have a highly linear translational force characteristic. The variable stiffness is achieved through the rotation of a central magnet. Both positive and negative spring constants can be created. Using an analytic-based field analysis modelling technique, the operating principle and linearity characteristics of the adjustable magnetic spring are studied. The use of a magnetic spring with an adjustable negative spring constant could enable an ocean generator to continuously operate in a resonant state, thereby greatly increasing its power generation capability. The described variable stiffness spring could also be useful in other energy harvesting applications, robotic actuator applications, and/or other applications.

Bird, Jonathan↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effects of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gases on twentieth century Sahel precipitation

Abstract There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external climate forcings—including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases (GHG)—relative to each other and to internal variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 “twentieth century” and pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal variability, or both.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Potential Dose Impacts from External Contamination on Naval Reactors Facility Waste Canisters (Special Analysis)

This Special Analysis (SA) was performed to address a request by Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) Waste Programs for a permanent exception to limits of removable surface contamination on the exterior of waste canisters shipped to the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste (RHLLW) Disposal Facility as specified in the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) (PLN-5446). The purpose of this SA is to determine if the NRF-requested levels for removable surface contamination on the exterior of all NRF waste canisters is within the bounds of the current performance assessment (PA). This was done by calculating the groundwater all-pathways dose contribution from surface contamination on the exterior of NRF canisters for the following cases: (1) the exteriors of all NRF waste canisters are contaminated to the 10 CFR 835 Appendix D allowable limits in the current WAC, and (2) the exteriors of all NRF waste canisters are contaminated to the limits requested by NRF Waste Programs. Dose impacts for each case were compared to each other and to the all pathways dose for the PA base case. Dose impacts were also compared to the all pathways dose limit specified in DOE O 435.1. A simple assessment of the potential impacts of the increase in surface contamination using the NRF-requested limits on the biotic, air, and inadvertent intruder pathways was also performed. Based on the results of this SA, the increase in canister exterior contamination limits requested by NRF are well within the bounds of the current PA and will not result in a violation of performance objectives. The results also show the increased limits do not reflect or necessitate a fundamental change to the PA conceptual model, nor a change to the way exterior contamination is not included in PA dose calculations. Therefore, it is recommended the NRF request for an exception to the current limits for external surface contamination be accepted and the revised limits for NRF-generated waste canisters be added to the WAC. The monitoring plan will also be revised to identify external canister contamination as a potential mobile source term that may be detected by monitoring earlier than potential releases from waste. The PA, composite analysis (CA), closure plan, and PA/CA maintenance plan do not require revision. Recommendations are also included for inclusion of NRF procedures used to limit water pool radionuclide variability (and thus canister surface contamination variability) to the waste generator certification process.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modular design attitude control system

The problem of applying modular attitude control to a rigid body-flexible suspension model of a flexible spacecraft with some state variables inaccessible was addressed by developing a sequence of single axis models and generating a series of reduced state linear observers of minimum order to reconstruct those scalar state variables that were inaccessible. The specific single axis models treated consisted of two, three and four rigid bodies, respectively, interconnected by a flexible shaft passing through the mass centers of the bodies. Reduced state linear observers of all orders up to one less than the total number of scalar state variables were generated for each of the three single axis models cited.

Chichester, F. D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Economic and Deployment Benefits of Wind-PV Hybrid Power Plants

The least-cost approach to decarbonizing the U.S. electricity supply will likely involve a significantly expanded share of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation. Many strategies and approaches have been identified to address integration challenges in a VRE-dominated system, including standalone and coupled battery systems. In this study, we explored the current and future potential of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Analysis results include temporal complementarity of wind and PV resources across the contiguous United States, with an emphasis on metrics that quantify reductions in variability that can be achieved through hybridization. We further use a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices to determine the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. We find that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60-80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility. Finally, capacity expansion modeling of PV-wind systems indicates that hybridization can reduce transmission expansion requirements associated with a heavily decarbonized U.S. electricity system.

complementarity↗

NASA NTRS2005

Aerosol climatology using a tunable spectral variability cloud screening of AERONET data

Can cloud screening of an aerosol data set, affect the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) climatology? Aerosols, humidity and clouds are correlated. Therefore, rigorous cloud screening can systematically bias towards less cloudy conditions, underestimating the average AOT. Here, using AERONET data we show that systematic rejection of variable atmospheric optical conditions can generate such bias in the average AOT. Therefore we recommend (1) to introduce more powerful spectral variability cloud screening and (2) to change the philosophy behind present aerosol climatologies: Instead of systematically rejecting all cloud contaminations, we suggest to intentionally allow the presence of cloud contamination, estimate the statistical impact of the contamination and correct for it. The analysis, applied to 10 AERONET stations with approx. 4 years of data, shows almost no change for Rome (Italy), but up to a change in AOT of 0.12 in Beijing (PRC). Similar technique may be explored for satellite analysis, e.g. MODIS.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integration of energy storage with diesel generation in remote communities

Highlights Battery energy storage may improve energy efficiency and reliability of hybrid energy systems composed by diesel and solar photovoltaic power generators serving isolated communities. In projects aiming update of power plants serving electrically isolated communities with redundant diesel generation, battery energy storage can improve overall economic performance of power supply system by reducing fuel usage, decreasing capital costs by replacing redundant diesel generation units, and increasing generator system life by shortening yearly runtime. Fast-acting battery energy storage systems with grid-forming inverters might have potential for improving drastically the reliability indices of isolated communities currently supplied by diesel generation. Abstract This paper will highlight unique challenges and opportunities with regard to energy storage utilization in remote, self-sustaining communities. The energy management of such areas has unique concerns. Diesel generation is often the go-to power source in these scenarios, but these systems are not devoid of issues. Without dedicated maintenance crews as in large, interconnected network areas, minor interruptions can be frequent and invasive not only for those who lose power, but also for those in the community that must then correct any faults. Although the immediate financial benefits are perhaps not readily apparent, energy storage could be used to address concerns related to reliability, automation, fuel supply concerns, generator degradation, solar utilization, and, yes, fuel costs to name a few. These ideas are shown through a case study of the Levelock Village of Alaska. Currently, the community is faced with high diesel prices and a difficult supply chain, which makes temporary loss of power very common and reductions in fuel consumption very impactful. This study will investigate the benefits that an energy storage system could bring to the overall system life, fuel costs, and reliability of the power supply. The variable efficiency of the generators, impact of startup/shutdown process, and low-load operation concerns are considered. The technological benefits of the combined system will be explored for various scenarios of future diesel prices and technology maintenance/replacement costs as well as for the avoidance of power interruptions that are so common in the community currently. Graphic abstract Discussion In several cases, energy storage can provide a means to promote energy equity by improving remote communities’ power supply reliability to levels closer to what the average urban consumer experiences at a reduced cost compared to transmission buildout. Furthermore, energy equity represents a hard-to-quantify benefit achieved by the integration of energy storage to isolated power systems of under-served communities, which suggests that the financial aspects of such projects should be questioned as the main performance criterion. To improve battery energy storage system valuation for diesel-based power systems, integration analysis must be holistic and go beyond fuel savings to capture every value stream possible.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Siting Analysis of a Solar-Nuclear-Desalination Integrated Energy System

Nuclear power is typically deployed as a baseload generator. Increased penetration of variable renewables motivates combining nuclear and renewable technologies into Integrated Energy Systems (IES) to improve dispatchability, component synergies and, through cogeneration, address multiple markets. However, combining multiple energy resources heavily depends on the proper selection of each system’s location and design limitations. In this paper, co-siting options for IES that couple nuclear and concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal desalination are investigated. A comprehensive siting analysis is performed that utilizes global information survey data to determine possible co-siting options for nuclear and solar thermal generation in the United States. Viable co-siting options are distributed across the Southwestern U.S., with the greatest concentration of siting options in the southern Great Plains, although siting with higher solar direct normal irradiance is possible in other states such as Arizona and New Mexico. Brackish water desalination is also attractive across the southwest U.S. due to high water stress, but for brackish water desalination reverse osmosis (an electricity driven process) is most cost- and energy-efficient, which does not require co-siting with the thermal generator. The most attractive state for nuclear and thermal desalination (which is more attractive when using seawater) is Texas, although other areas may become attractive as water stress increases over the coming decades. Co-siting of all CSP and thermal desalination is challenging as attractive CSP sites are not coastal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Next-Generation Satellite Precipitation Products for Understanding Global and Regional Water Variability

A major challenge in understanding the space-time variability of continental water fluxes is the lack of accurate precipitation estimates over complex terrains. While satellite precipitation observations can be used to complement ground-based data to obtain improved estimates, space-based and ground-based estimates come with their own sets of uncertainties, which must be understood and characterized. Quantitative estimation of uncertainties in these products also provides a necessary foundation for merging satellite and ground-based precipitation measurements within a rigorous statistical framework. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission that will provide next-generation global precipitation data products for research and applications. It consists of a constellation of microwave sensors provided by NASA, JAXA, CNES, ISRO, EUMETSAT, DOD, NOAA, NPP, and JPSS. At the heart of the mission is the GPM Core Observatory provided by NASA and JAXA to be launched in 2013. The GPM Core, which will carry the first space-borne dual-frequency radar and a state-of-the-art multi-frequency radiometer, is designed to set new reference standards for precipitation measurements from space, which can then be used to unify and refine precipitation retrievals from all constellation sensors. The next-generation constellation-based satellite precipitation estimates will be characterized by intercalibrated radiometric measurements and physical-based retrievals using a common observation-derived hydrometeor database. For pre-launch algorithm development and post-launch product evaluation, NASA supports an extensive ground validation (GV) program in cooperation with domestic and international partners to improve (1) physics of remote-sensing algorithms through a series of focused field campaigns, (2) characterization of uncertainties in satellite and ground-based precipitation products over selected GV testbeds, and (3) modeling of atmospheric processes and land surface hydrology through simulation, downscaling, and data assimilation. An overview of the GPM mission, science status, and synergies with HyMex activities will be presented

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural recharge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup database between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site-wide Natural Recharge Boundary Condition for Groundwater Models

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the development of a tool that generates temporally and spatially variable representations of natural recharge for the Hanford Site. A key feature of the recharge evolution tool (RET) is that it applies sanctioned natural re-charge rates varying as a function of the condition/cover of the ground surface and soil type at different points in time. No hydrologic calculations are performed by the RET, this script works as a lookup data base between spatial and temporal datasets to assign research-based recharge rates to corresponding regions throughout the Hanford Site. This work will support vadose zone and groundwater models for the Hanford Site. Although efforts will focus on generating recharge estimates for the entirety of the Hanford Site, the focus scope of this work will be the Central Plateau Area to support the Composite Analysis Vadose Zone facet. In other words, the reliability of this calculation will be greatest within the Central Plateau Area and decrease with departures from that geographic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are confined to equatorial latitudes. Hemispherical asymmetries also appear in both the model results and the observations. The temperature amplitudes outside the equatorial region however tend to occur at lower latitudes in the model results. While there is qualitative agreement between the TIMED measurements and the model prediction, there are some areas of significant disagreement that require us to reexamine the present version of the NSM. The numerical results critically depend on the chosen parameters that determine the wave forcing, and there are a number of avenues to improve the performance of the model that had not been tuned to fit the observations. The GW spectrum and its latitude dependence in the troposphere are not well known, and numerical experiments are discussed that describe the related model response. While it appears that eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves are not the primary source to generate the QBO, the GW forcing can seed the oscillation and act as a catalyst to enhance effectiveness of these planetary waves.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

An extended polynomial chaos expansion for PDF characterization and variation with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

This paper presents an extended polynomial chaos formalism for epistemic uncertainties and a new framework for evaluating sensitivities and variations of output probability density functions (PDF) to uncertainty in probabilistic models of input variables. An ”extended” polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is developed that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, modeled as random variables, thus allowing a unified treatment of both types of uncertainty. We explore in particular epistemic uncertainty associated with the choice of prior probabilistic models for input parameters. A PCE-based Kernel Density (KDE) construction provides a composite map from the PCE coefficients and germ to the PDF of quantities of interest (QoI). Here, the sensitivities of these PDF with respect to the input parameters are then evaluated. Input parameters of the probabilistic models are considered. By sampling over the epistemic random variable, a family of PDFs is generated and the failure probability is itself estimated as a random variable with its own PCE. Integrating epistemic uncertainties within the PCE framework results in a computationally efficient paradigm for propagation and sensitivity evaluation. Two typical illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Aleatory uncertainty↗

DOE OSTI2020

The value of seasonal energy storage technologies for the integration of wind and solar power

Energy storage at all timescales, including the seasonal scale, plays a pivotal role in enabling increased penetration levels of wind and solar photovoltaic energy sources in power systems.

Guerra, Omar J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Variable-Impedance Magnetically-Insulated Transmission Lines as a Risk-Mitigation Measure for Next-Generation Pulsed Power

This project has produced the first detailed characterizations of power flow resulting from applying the “variable-impedance MITL” concept to real-life systems in Sandia’s pulsed power program (Z and next-generation pulsed power (NGPP)). We present simulation results and analyses for constant-impedance versions of both Z and NGPP and survey the operational viability of several variable-impedance re-designs in the parameter space of linear tapers. Circuit modeling (SCREAMER/Bertha) was used to pinpoint promising candidate designs, and EM-PIC (Empire) simulations were used to evaluate these candidates more rigorously. This approach was particularly successful in the Z regime which resulted in the identification of several viable variable-impedance MITL designs for each level. The approach was more challenged in the operating space NGPP occupies, producing data points that speak to a more restrictive design space due to anode plasma turn-on. In the end, we were able to converge on one viable variable-impedance design for the highest inductance line (level “F”) and one for the highest current line (level “A”). Altogether, the body of simulation evidence presented in this report suggest there does exist flexibility in operating space for magnetically-insulated transmission lines (MITLs) having variable geometric impedance to be a potential enabling technology for safely increasing current delivery (and potentially lowering stack voltage) in pulsed-power drivers by manipulating electron losses; however, operating points for a particular design must be carefully screened. Circuit and EM-PIC modeling provided consistent verdicts in safe operating regimes for operational viability, but additional physics such as anode plasma turn-on which is included in Empire but not in SCREAMER/Bertha was found to be a critical factor affecting power flow that lead to different assessments between the codes. It is not always the case that the occurrence of anode plasma caused a design to fail (some designs turned on anode plasma yet still delivered load currents meeting design targets); the details matter such as how early in the pulse anode surfaces break down (and how large a region). However, in every case that it did fail it was found that the feedback from anode plasma was the cause (i.e., turning off the anode plasma model in Empire restored agreement with the circuit model prediction). As circuit simulations represent an efficient and practical means of surveying design space compared to more computationally-expensive approaches such as EM-PIC, it could be prudent to invest in the research and development of models to include the effects of anode plasma such as ion emission in circuit codes. The variable-impedance MITL design is a new concept that enables controlled manipulation of the initial electron losses in the outer MITL and can be tested on Z today. We encourage follow-on work to explore further optimization (including alternative variable-impedance profiles, e.g., having constant dZ/dR), and to confirm the major findings presented in this report by fielding test hardware on actual Z shots.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Fermi-LAT Lightcurve Repository

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) lightcurve repository (LCR) is a publicly available, continually updated library of gamma-ray lightcurves of variable Fermi-LAT sources generated over multiple timescales. The Fermi-LAT LCR aims to provide publication-quality lightcurves binned on timescales of 3, 7, and 30 days for 1525 sources deemed variable in the source catalog of the first 10 yr of Fermi-LAT observations. The repository consists of lightcurves generated through full likelihood analyses that model the sources and the surrounding region, providing fluxes and photon indices for each time bin. The LCR is intended as a resource for the time-domain and multimessenger communities by allowing users to search LAT data quickly to identify correlated variability and flaring emission episodes from gamma-ray sources. We describe the sample selection and analysis employed by the LCR and provide an overview of the associated data access portal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗