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393 records · Page 22

Detecting Rain–Snow-Transition Elevations in Mountain Basins Using Wireless Sensor Networks

Here, to provide complementary information on the hydrologically important rain–snow-transition elevation in mountain basins, this study provides two estimation methods using ground measurements from basin-scale wireless sensor networks: one based on wet-bulb temperature T wet and the other based on snow-depth measurements of accumulation and ablation. With data from 17 spatially distributed clusters (178 nodes) from two networks, in the American and Feather River basins of California’s Sierra Nevada, we analyzed transition elevation during 76 storm events in 2014–18. A T wet threshold of 0.5°C best matched the transition elevation defined by snow depth. Transition elevations using T wet in upper elevations of the basins generally agreed with atmospheric snow level from radars located at lower elevations, while radar snow level was ~100 m higher due to snow-level lowering on windward mountainsides during orographic lifting. Diurnal patterns of the difference between transition elevation and radar snow level were observed in the American basin, related to diurnal ground-temperature variations. However, these patterns were not found in the Feather basin due to complex terrain and higher uncertainties in transition-elevation estimates. The American basin tends to exhibit 100-m-higher transition elevations than does the Feather basin, consistent with the Feather basin being about 1° latitude farther north. Transition elevation averaged 155 m higher in intense atmospheric river events than in other events; meanwhile, snow-level lowering was enhanced with a 90-m-larger difference between radar snow level and transition elevation. On-the-ground continuous observations from distributed sensor networks can complement radar data and provide important ground truth and spatially resolved information on transition elevations in mountain basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Stress and Strain Heterogeneity and Persistence in Uniaxially‐ and Triaxially‐Loaded Sandstone

Two critical questions in brittle rock mechanics are how rocks developed localized strains and to what extent internal stress heterogeneity controls this localization and subsequent macroscopic failure. Definitive answers have not yet been found, but would provide insight into rock fracture mechanics as relevant to hydrocarbon extraction and sequestration. Here, we use synchrotron X‐ray tomography (XRT) and 3D X‐ray diffraction (3DXRD) during uniaxial and triaxial tests on Nugget and Bentheimer sandstones to examine strain and stress localization prior to mechanical failure. 3DXRD was used to measure intra‐granular lattice strains which were used to compute elastic stress tensors of each grain. Digital volume correlation (DVC) was applied to XRT images to determine the strain field in the sample. Both samples featured marked spatial heterogeneity, localization, and temporal persistence of elevated stresses and strains during their mechanical deformation toward failure. Both samples featured a majority of grains with at least one principal stress component that was tensile, a signature of the influence of heterogeneity on stress transmission. Measurements further revealed that compressive stress orientations and statistics evolved in a similar manner to those of inter‐particle forces in loose granular materials, with triaxially‐compressed rock exhibiting enhanced grain stress heterogeneity compared to uniaxially‐compressed rock. Our results complement recent work by others who employed XRT and scanning 3DXRD to study triaxially‐compressed sandstone, but extend those results to uniaxial compression, sandstones of varied porosity, and grain stress measurements throughout the 3D full extent of the samples rather than in a single layer examined with scanning 3DXRD.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Conceptual design of DIII-D experiments to diagnose the lifetime of spin polarized fuel

Abstract In magnetic fusion experiments, the cross sections for the D-T and D- 3 He fusion reactions are increased by as much as 50% if the fuel remains spin polarized parallel to the magnetic field. The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility of lifetime measurements of spin polarization, in magnetic fusion relevant conditions, on the DIII-D tokamak using relative changes in charged fusion product (CFP) loss measurements that depend upon the differential fusion cross section d σ /dΩ. Relative measurements that capture changes in the escaping CFP pitch, poloidal, and energy distributions are studied in two realistic TRANSP calculated plasma scenarios: (a) vector-polarized 3 He and D pellets are injected into a hot hydrogen plasma to produce thermonuclear reactions, and (b) a tensor-polarized deuterium pellet is injected into an L-mode hydrogen background plasma that includes unpolarized 3 He neutral beam injection. Ideal CFP signals in both scenarios show substantial pitch sensitivity to polarization for 14.7 MeV proton detection at a poloidal angle of − 56 ∘ (on the outer wall in the ion ∇ B direction), and strong sensitivity to polarization for 3.6 MeV alpha flux detection by an array of poloidal detectors. Energy-resolved measurements of 14.7 MeV protons are also sensitive to the degree of polarization for the − 56 ∘ port in the beam-plasma scenario. A realistic assessment of CFP signals in the thermonuclear scenario show count rates in the range of 2 × 10 4 cps for pitch-resolved proton detection and 2 × 10 5 cps for alpha flux measurements. Reduced chi-squared χ r 2 calculations show polarization lifetime measurements are feasible for either proton or alpha detection of both enhanced or suppressed polarization for the thermonuclear scenario. Measurements of gamma rays produced in the weak D + 3 He → γ + 5 Li branch complement the CFP measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Experimental Investigation of Students’ Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator

Securing enough data has been a main challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Many researchers and institutes have made a lot of efforts for collecting HRA data to produce reasonable human error probabilities (HEPs) as well as reduce the uncertainty of HRA quantification. Representatively, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC), Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have led lots of empirical research regarding the HRA data collection. The U.S. NRC and KAERI have mainly carried out full-scope simulator research collecting HRA data through experiments using full-scope simulators with actual operators. In contrast, INL has experimentally collected the data using simplified simulators and student operators. INL has proposed the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) framework to complement full-scope data collection efforts by suggesting a way to infer full-scope data based on experimental data collected from students operating simplified simulators, specifically the Rancor Microworld Simulator (Rancor) and the Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS). The aim of the SHEEP framework is to lower the entry point for collecting useful HRA data by securing large sample sizes at a reasonable amount of cost and labor while also guaranteeing a high degree of freedom when designing experiments. The authors’ previous research investigated whether data collected from the SHEEP framework could support a representative full-scope study. Besides, human performance differences between professional and student operators when using Rancor and CNS have been analyzed to understand the lack of fidelity of the simplified simulators and student operators within the SHEEP study. As a follow up research, this study experimentally investigates students’ learning effects and the performance trends over a certain period when using Rancor. This study aims to find out 1) how much training or education is required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) when using Rancor and 2) how much differences there are in human performance measures between students and professional operators. In this study, a longitudinal experiment is developed. The four experiment trials with two weeks interval are carried out for sixteen undergraduate students majoring nuclear engineering at Chosun University. Totally four scenarios randomly selected from ten Rancor scenarios are used in each experiment trial. Four human performance measurements (i.e., workload, situation awareness, time and error) are considered in the experiment. Lastly, the trend of students’ performance is compared with operator data having been collected from the previous experiment.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fuel Injection Dynamics and Composition Effects on RDE Performance

Rotating detonation engines (RDEs) provide a promising route to substantially increasing cycle efficiency in stationary gas turbines. Much of this increase relies on the ability to achieve consistent pressure gain within the combustor. In particular, the design of injectors that feed fuel and air into the detonation channel plays a crucial role. Such injectors have to ensure proper mixing of fuel and oxidizer, while minimizing backflow of detonation products into the feed plenums, and reduce susceptibility to the complex wave structures that exist within the combustor. From a practical perspective, such RDEs also need to operate with variable fuel composition. When fuel mixtures with components that possess vastly different oxidation pathways and time-scales are used, there could be additional losses through deflagrative burning instead of detonation-driven heat release. Such sensitivity to the complete flow path is akin to the physics of thermoacoustic instabilities in conventional gas turbines. In this sense, RDEs pose a unique research challenge: the performance of the device relies on the small-scale heat release process, which is highly dependent on the flow interactions within the full-scale system. As a result, canonical flow configurations, instrumented with detailed diagnostics or modeled using high-fidelity tools, but only focus on the small-scale processes will not contain the key system-level interactions. At the same time, macroscopic measurements and models that only capture system-level performance will not provide insight into the key sources of pressure losses. These couplings and sensitivities provide a formidable challenge to both experimental and simulation studies of the effects Thus, a joint experimental/computational program designed specifically to address these challenges was undertaken in this program. The focus of this program was on two key topics: a) the interaction between injector flow and the overall wave dynamics within the combustor, and b) the deflagration/detonation structure in multi-component fuels that are of practical interest. Both topics involve interaction of small-scale heat release processes with the geometry-dependent wave structure. Studies focused on the study of full-scale RDE systems, based on a 6-inch conventional annular geometry. Experimentally RDEs were studied using a combination of diagnostics. A combination of optical diagnostics and aero-thermo-acoustic analysis based on a combination of spectral and mode decomposition analysis was used to identify the dynamics of the detonation wave and other secondary waves that exist in the system. These studies have helped the identification and investigation of injector and detonation dynamics arising from coupling, and how they affect RDE mixing, detonation structure, operability and performance. Performance of RDEs was investigated through thrust stand measurements, which was used to evaluate the effective pressure gain generated by the system through the concept of equivalent available pressure. Optical diagnostics were developed and implemented to investigate the distribution of heat release, across the detonation wave. Novel optical diagnostics of NIR imaging was also developed and applied to investigate the high temperature / high pressure distribution across the detonation wave. In order to complement the experiments, the computational tools were geared to simulate the full experimental setup. GPU-based acceleration of the models and computations were developed to enable rapid simulation of the full system. In addition, the use of adaptive mesh refinement, and unstructured grid formulation, enabled the investigation of realistic geometries studied in the laboratory. The simulations produced a wealth of detail on the structure of the detonation wave under different operating conditions. Emphasis was placed on quantifying mixture pre-burning and the impact on wave propagation and structure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Timelike Compton Scattering from a longitudinally polarised target with CLAS12 at Jefferson Lab

Explorations into the internal dynamics of hadrons are constantly evolving, and the requirement for experimental results to verify theoretical models of hadron structure is paramount. A key area in this field is the study of Generalised Parton Distributions (GPDs), which are functions used to model the momenta of quarks and gluons within hadrons, and the methods to access GPDs experimentally. One such scattering process that allows access to these is Timelike Compton Scattering. TCS complements existing Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering experiments and allows investigation into the universality of GPDs through access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity independent GPD Hq via beam spin asymmetries (BSA), and it provides novel access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity dependent GPD ˜Hq through target polarisation asymmetries (TSA). This thesis work presents a comparative study with the first published BSA for TCS at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), alongside a first time extraction of a Target Spin Asymmetry with the Summer 2022 data taking run. JLab hosts the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) which provides a 12 GeV electron beam to four experimental halls. Hall-B contains the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer, which took data across three run periods on a longitudinally polarised NH3 and ND3 fixed target from 2022-2023, to extract measurements of electron-proton scattering, from which a TCS signal could be extracted. The thesis discusses work done to understand and eliminate contributions from the non-/low-polarised nuclear background, testing pre-established cuts to eliminate pion background from a dilepton (e+e-) final state and modifying them as needed for the new experimental run, and attempts to hone in on a clean TCS signal from which to extract the two asymmetry observables. A comparison with existing BSA results was performed; however, the statistical errors are too large to draw a significant conclusion as to whether there is agreement across each bin. More data is needed for a multidimensionally binned extraction. A proof of principle was achieved in the TSA measurements, with two out of four kinematic bins showing preliminary agreement in shape with theoretical values. Again, the errors are significant due to the contributions from the nuclear background. To support these conclusions, a further study was done, which takes into account an estimate of the asymmetries with the full available dataset (this thesis is based only on data taken in the summer set; at the time of writing processing was still being conducted for the final two datasets), as well as an estimate including additional future experiment days that were awarded in July 2024. Additional work was done on a secondary project exploring the feasibility of measuring TCS at the upcoming Electron Ion Collider, supporting the design proposal for the detector for the first interaction region and giving a positive outlook for the future of these types of measurements beyond JLab.

Gates, Kayleigh [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Unite↗

Colour gradients of low-redshift galaxies in the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey

ABSTRACT Radial colour gradients within galaxies arise from gradients of stellar age, metallicity, and dust reddening. Large samples of colour gradients from wide-area imaging surveys can complement smaller integral-field spectroscopy data sets and can be used to constrain galaxy formation models. Here, we measure colour gradients for low-redshift galaxies (z < 0.1) using photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey DR9. Our sample comprises ∼93 000 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts and ∼574 000 galaxies with photometric redshifts. We focus on gradients across a radial range 0.5Reff to Reff, which corresponds to the inner disc of typical late-type systems at low redshift. This region has been the focus of previous statistical studies of colour gradients and has recently been explored by spectroscopic surveys such as MaNGA. We find that the colour gradients of most galaxies in our sample are negative (redder towards the centre), consistent with the literature. We investigate empirical relationships between colour gradient, average g − r and r − z colour, Mr, M⋆, and sSFR. Trends of gradient strength with Mr (M⋆) show an inflection around Mr ∼ −21 ($\log _{10} \, M_\star /\mathrm{M_\odot }\sim 10.5$). Below this mass, colour gradients become steeper with increasing M⋆, whereas colour gradients in more massive galaxies become shallower. We find that positive gradients (bluer stars at smaller radii) are typical for galaxies of $M_{\star }\sim 10^{8}\, \mathrm{M_\odot }$. We compare our results to age and metallicity gradients in two data sets derived from fits of different stellar population libraries to MaNGA spectra, but find no clear consensus explanation for the trends we observe. Both MaNGA data sets seem to imply a significant contribution from dust reddening, in particular, to explain the flatness of colour gradients along the red sequence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Improving tide-estuary representation in MPAS-Ocean (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this research is to produce a skill-assessed tide-estuary representation, including BGC (biogeochemistry) components of the ecosystem, into the MPAS-O global climate modeling system. Specifically, in the original proposal we proposed one-way nesting, into global MPAS-O, of a high-resolution model for TES (tidal and estuary systems) including the coupling of the BGC components. We have completed the proposed tasks during the past 4 years. Specifically, after extensive consultation with the MPAS-O group during the first year, we have decided to go beyond the original proposal and to two-way nest SCHISM into MPAS-O. As a result, SCHISM-CoSiNE (with CoSiNE being the BGC model) is now fully integrated into MPAS-O as a subroutine (more precisely, an analysis member) and can be invoked as MPAS-O is running with two-way exchange of information between the TES and global models (with proper spatial interpolation done on the fly). As originally proposed, we have also developed the new finite-volume (FV) model MPAS-OI (aka ELCIRC-sub) for TES. We have conducted several tests using the coupled MPAS-SCHISM- CoSiNE model and also MPAS-OI for Columbia River, San Francisco Bay and Chesapeake Bay. Four journal publications have been produced so far as the result of the project and 1 is under review (cf. Publication section). With these achievements, we will be ready to conduct fully coupled simulations of TES and global ocean anywhere, as soon as some missing capabilities in MPAS-O (e.g. tides, improved ability to handle the boundary conditions, and streamlining of the global BGC model) are worked out. The significance of the outcome of this project cannot be overstated. It marks the first time, as far as we know, that a global climate model is tightly coupled to a bona fide nearshore and terrestrial model (SCHISM system); in fact SCHISM is the first bona fide compound flooding model that seamlessly covers the coastal ocean, estuaries, rivers and watersheds (Ye et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020). The coupled model will reduce the errors and uncertainties of the MPAS-O global climate model system. It also complements and extends on-going E3SM project, as the latter seeks in the long-term to include components required to simulate impacts of sea-level change and storm surge on coastal regions, including wave models and focusing resolution in coastal and storm-track regions, as an important component of the Cryosphere-ocean system. Note that a spectral wave model (the unstructured-grid version of Wave Watch III, aka Wind Wave Model) is already incorporated inside the SCHISM system and is therefore directly accessible in the coupled system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of spacer grids on high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal

Increasing the fuel burnup limit in light-water reactors to improve fuel cycle economics requires a strong technical foundation. Experimental observations from the Halden and Studsvik programs have revealed severe fuel fragmentation during loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions, highlighting the need for additional technical evaluation. Consequently, further LOCA test data are needed to complement existing findings and improve the understanding of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) behavior. Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Severe Accident Test Station has played a significant role in advancing the understanding of high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal phenomena. One remaining gap in the available experimental database is the effect of fuel assembly structural features on cladding deformation behavior during a LOCA, and more specifically, their impact on the fuel’s ability to fragment, relocate, and disperse. Recent analyses using the BISON fuel performance code suggest that cladding deformation near grid spacers will remain below the 3% threshold that has been reported in the NRC Research Information Letter, indicating that the cladding could remain mechanically constrained during the LOCA event. This paper builds upon the BISON analyses to design and conduct a series of out-of-cell tests aimed at further evaluating cladding deformation in and around grid spacers. In addition, these tests were used to assess local cladding temperature conditions and compare them against analytical predictions in order to better replicate expected in-reactor behavior. Finally, an in-cell high-burnup LOCA test was designed and performed to evaluate the effects of a grid spacer, or cladding restraint, on fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility. The high-burnup test results differed from those of historical LOCA experiments, with a recorded rupture temperature of 861°C. Two ballooned regions and corresponding rupture openings were observed, with rupture widths of approximately 0.64 mm for both ruptures and rupture lengths of 4.8 mm and 5.6 mm, respectively.

Capps, Nathan [ORNL]↗

Quantum machine learning with differential privacy

Abstract Quantum machine learning (QML) can complement the growing trend of using learned models for a myriad of classification tasks, from image recognition to natural speech processing. There exists the potential for a quantum advantage due to the intractability of quantum operations on a classical computer. Many datasets used in machine learning are crowd sourced or contain some private information, but to the best of our knowledge, no current QML models are equipped with privacy-preserving features. This raises concerns as it is paramount that models do not expose sensitive information. Thus, privacy-preserving algorithms need to be implemented with QML. One solution is to make the machine learning algorithm differentially private, meaning the effect of a single data point on the training dataset is minimized. Differentially private machine learning models have been investigated, but differential privacy has not been thoroughly studied in the context of QML. In this study, we develop a hybrid quantum-classical model that is trained to preserve privacy using differentially private optimization algorithm. This marks the first proof-of-principle demonstration of privacy-preserving QML. The experiments demonstrate that differentially private QML can protect user-sensitive information without signficiantly diminishing model accuracy. Although the quantum model is simulated and tested on a classical computer, it demonstrates potential to be efficiently implemented on near-term quantum devices [noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ)]. The approach’s success is illustrated via the classification of spatially classed two-dimensional datasets and a binary MNIST classification. This implementation of privacy-preserving QML will ensure confidentiality and accurate learning on NISQ technology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Understanding the ignition process and flame structure of conventional and oxygenated fuels under engine relevant conditions – An optical study

Renewably generated synthetic fuels such as poly-oxymethylene ethers (OME) have a significant potential to effectively break the soot-NOX trade-off in compression ignition engines by using exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) to maintain low nitrogen oxide (NOX) emissions while maintaining good efficiency and simultaneously contributing to circular carbon economy. However, owing to the fundamental differences in properties of OME when compared to fossil-based diesel fuels, it is critical to fully understand its ignition and combustion phenomenology to take advantage of this fuel to its utmost potential. In this context, this work outlines the results of a systematic experimental study performed in a heavy-duty, single-cylinder, optical engine probing the spatial and temporal progression of fuel decomposition and ignition behavior of OME when compared to n-dodecane, a diesel-fuel surrogate. Thermodynamic analysis and optical diagnostics techniques including simultaneous HCHO-PLIF and OH-PLIF complemented by high-speed OH* chemiluminescence were employed along with parametric sweeps of intake temperature and EGR dilution rates. OME does not exhibit any observable low temperature heat release irrespective of the ambient oxygen concentration. Differences in the observed diffusive flame structure such as longer flame lift-off length, less pronounced combustion recession, faster premixed burn at ignition (“volumetric” ignition), non-sooting behavior suggest that the inherent presence of fuel-bound oxygen in OME can skew the air-fuel ratio (AFR) distribution within the jet thereby reducing the reliance of combustion on mixing and air entrainment. This leads to rapid late-cycle oxidation leading to shorter combustion duration and favorable combustion phasing. Results also suggest that OME exhibits relatively weak negative temperature coefficient (NTC) behavior, however, the OME fuel-decomposition kinetic-pathways produce significant concentration of HCHO, which might be erroneously interpreted as a product of cool-flames.

Air-fuel ratio↗

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1°C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2°C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3°C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23°C(±0.12°C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pauling’s rules for oxide-based minerals: A re-examination based on quantum mechanical constraints and modern applications of bond-valence theory to Earth materials

Since their introduction in 1929, Pauling’s five rules have been used by scientists from many disciplines to rationalize and predict stable arrangements of atoms and coordination polyhedra in crystalline solids; amorphous materials such as silicate glasses and melts; nanomaterials, poorly crystalline solids; aqueous cation and anion complexes; and sorption complexes at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces. The predictive power of these simple yet powerful rules was challenged recently by George et al. (2020), who performed a statistical analysis of the performance of Pauling’s five rules for about 5000 oxide crystal structures. They concluded that only 13% of the oxides satisfy the last four rules simultaneously and that the second rule has the most exceptions. They also found that Pauling’s first rule is satisfied for only 66% of the coordination environments tested and concluded that no simple rule linking ionic radius to coordination environment will be predictive due to the variable quality of univalent radii. We address these concerns and discuss quantum mechanical calculations that complement Pauling’s rules, particularly his first (radius sum and radius ratio rule) and second (electrostatic valence rule) rules. We also present a more realistic view of the bonded radii of atoms, derived by determining the local minimum in the electron density distribution measured along trajectories between bonded atoms known as bond paths, i.e., the bond critical point (rc). Electron density at the bond critical point is a quantum mechanical observable that correlates well with Pauling bond strength. Moreover, a metal atom in a polyhedron has as many bonded radii as it has bonded interactions, resulting in metal and O atoms that may not be spherical. O atoms, for example, are not spherical in many oxide-based crystal structures. Instead, the electron density of a bonded oxygen is often highly distorted or polarized, with its bonded radius decreasing systematically from ~1.38 Å when bonded to highly electropositive atoms like sodium to 0.64 Å when bonded to highly electronegative atoms like nitrogen. Bonded radii determined for metal atoms match the Shannon (1976) radii for more electropositive atoms, but the match decreases systematically as the electronegativities of the M atoms increase. As a result, significant departures from the radius ratio rule in the analysis by George et al. (2020) is not surprising. We offer a modified, more fundamental version of Pauling’s first rule and demonstrate that the second rule has a one-to-one connection between the electron density accumulated between the bonded atoms at the bond critical point and the Pauling bond strength of the bonded interaction. Pauling’s second rule implicitly assumes that bond strength is invariant with bond length for a given pair of bonded atoms. Many studies have since shown that this is not the case, and Brown and Shannon (1973) developed an equation and a set of parameters to describe the relation between bond length and bond strength, now redefined as bond valence to avoid confusion with Pauling bond-strength. Brown (1980) used the valence-sum rule, together with the path rule and the valence-matching principle, as the three axioms of bond-valence theory (BVT), a powerful method for understanding many otherwise elusive aspects of crystals and also their participation in dynamic processes. We show how a priori bond-valence calculations can predict unstrained bond-lengths and how bond-valence mapping can locate low-Z atoms in a crystal structure (e.g., Li) or examine possible diffusion pathways for atoms through crystal structures. In addition, we briefly discuss Pauling’s third, fourth, and fifth rules, the first two of which concern the sharing of polyhedron elements (edges and faces) and the common instability associated with structures in which a polyhedron shares an edge or face with another polyhedron and contains high-valence cations. The olivine [α-(MgxFe1–x)2SiO4] crystal structure is used to illustrate the distortions from hexagonal close-packing of O atoms caused by metal-metal repulsion across shared polyhedron edges. We conclude by discussing several applications of BVT to Earth materials, including the use of BVT to: (1) locate H+ ions in crystal structures, including the location of protons in the crystal structures of nominally anhydrous minerals in Earth’s mantle; (2) determine how strongly bonded (usually anionic) structural units interact with weakly bonded (usually cationic) interstitial complexes in complex uranyl-oxide and uranyl-oxysalt minerals using the valence-matching principle; (3) calculate Lewis acid strengths of cations and Lewis base strengths of anions; (4) determine how (H2O) groups can function as bond-valence transformers by dividing one bond into two bonds of half the bond valence; (5) help characterize products of sorption reactions of aqueous cations (e.g., Co2+ and Pb2+) and oxyanions [e.g., selenate (Se6+O4)2- and selenite (Se4+O3)2-] at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces and the important role of protons in these reactions; and (6) help characterize the local coordination environments of highly charged cations (e.g., Zr4+, Ti4+, U4+, U5+, and U6+) in silicate glasses and melts.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The J-elongated conformation of β 2 -glycoprotein I predominates in solution: Implications for our understanding of antiphospholipid syndrome

β 2 -Glycoprotein I (β 2 GPI) is an abundant plasma protein displaying phospholipid-binding properties. Because it binds phospholipids, it is a target of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs) in antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), a life-threatening autoimmune thrombotic disease. Indeed, aPLs prefer membrane-bound β 2 GPI to that in solution. β 2 GPI exists in two almost equally populated redox states: oxidized, in which all the disulfide bonds are formed, and reduced, in which one or more disulfide bonds are broken. Furthermore, β 2 GPI can adopt multiple conformations (i.e. J-elongated, S-twisted, and O-circular). While strong evidence indicates that the J-form is the structure bound to aPLs, which conformation exists and predominates in solution remains controversial, and so is the conformational pathway leading to the bound state. Here, we report that human recombinant β 2 GPI purified under native conditions is oxidized. Moreover, under physiological pH and salt concentrations, this oxidized form adopts a J-elongated, flexible conformation, not circular or twisted, in which the N-terminal domain I (DI) and the C-terminal domain V (DV) are exposed to the solvent. Consistent with this model, binding kinetics and mutagenesis experiments revealed that in solution the J-form interacts with negatively charged liposomes and with MBB2, a monoclonal anti-DI antibody that recapitulates most of the features of pathogenic aPLs. We conclude that the preferential binding of aPLs to phospholipid-bound β 2 GPI arises from the ability of its preexisting J-form to accumulate on the membranes, thereby offering an ideal environment for aPL binding. We propose that targeting the J-form of β 2 GPI provides a strategy to block pathogenic aPLs in APS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗