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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations.

Zhang, Taiping↗
NASA NTRS1999

Environmental and Archaeological Research in the Peten, Guatemala

The Peten, Northern Guatemala, was once inhabited by a population of several million Maya before their collapse in the 9th century A.D.. The seventh and eight centuries were a time of crowning glory four millions of Maya; by 930 A.D. only a few scattered houses remained, testifying to the greatest disaster in human history. What is known is that at the time of their collapse the Maya had cut down most of their trees. After centuries of regeneration the Peten now represent the largest remaining tropical forest in Central America but is experiencing rapid deforestation in the wake of an invasion of settlers. The successful adaptive techniques of the indigenous population are being abandoned in favor of the destructive techniques of monoculture and cattle raising. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis are being used to address issues in Maya archeology as well as monitor the effects of increasing deforestation in the area today. One thousand years ago the forests of the Peten were nearly destroyed by the ancient Maya who after centuries of successful adaptation finally overused their resources. Current inhabitants are threatening to do the same thing today in a shorter time period with a lesser population. Through the use of remote sensing/GIS analysis we are attempting to answer questions about the past in order to protect the resources of the future.

Sever, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling Surface Structure Derived from Laser Altimeter Return Waveforms Using High-Resolution Elevation Data

The upcoming generation of operational spaceborne laser altimeters (i.e VCL and GLAS) record the interaction of emitted laser radiation with terrestrial surfaces in the form of a digitized waveform. We show that we can accurately model return laser altimeter waveforms as the sum of the reflections from individual surfaces within laser footprints. In one case, we predict return waveforms using high resolution elevation data generated by a small-footprint laser altimeter in a dense tropical forest. We compare over 3000 modeled and recorded waveform pairs using the Pearson correlation. The modeled and recorded waveforms are highly correlated, with a mean correlation of 0.90 and a median of 0.95. The mean correlation is highly dependent on the relative positions of the data sets. By shifting the relative locations of the two compared data sets, we infer that the data are colocated to within 0.4$\sim$m horizontally and 0.12$\sim$m vertically. The high degree of correlation shows that we can reliably synthesize the vertical structure information measured by medium-large footprint laser altimeters for complex, dense vegetation.

Blair, J. Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Archaeological and Environmental Research of the Peten, Guatemala, Using Remote Sensing/GIS Research

The Peten, northern Guatemala, was once inhabited by a population of several million Maya before their collapse in the 9th century AD. Although the seventh and eight centuries were a time of crowning glory for millions of Maya; by 930 A.D. only a few scattered houses remained. What is known, is that at the time of their collapse, the Maya had cut down most of their trees. After centuries of regeneration the Peten now represent the largest remaining tropical forest in Central America but is experiencing rapid deforestation in the wake of an invasion of settlers. The successful adaptive techniques of the indigenous population are being abandoned in favor of the destructive techniques of monoculture and cattle raising. These techniques also contribute to the destruction and looting of unrecorded archeological sites. Remote sensing and GIS analysis are being used to address issues in Maya archeology as well as monitor the effects of increasing deforestation in the area today. One thousand years ago the forests of the Peten were nearly destroyed by the ancient Maya, who, after centuries of successful adaptation, finally overused their resources. Current inhabitants are threatening to do the same thing today in a shorter time period with a lesser population. Through the use of remote sensing/GIS analysis we are attempting to answer questions about the past in order to protect the resources of the future.

Sever, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Classification of the Gabon SAR Mosaic Using a Wavelet Based Rule Classifier

A method is developed for semi-automated classification of SAR images of the tropical forest. Information is extracted using the wavelet transform (WT). The transform allows for extraction of structural information in the image as a function of scale. In order to classify the SAR image, a Desicion Tree Classifier is used. The method of pruning is used to optimize classification rate versus tree size. The results give explicit insight on the type of information useful for a given class.

Simard, Marc↗
NASA NTRS1997

Regional Application of an Ecosystem Production Model for Studies of Biogeochemistry in the...

The degree to which primary production, soil carbon, and trace gas fluxes in tropical forests of the Amazon are limited by moisture availability and other environmental factors was examined using an ecosystem modeling application for the country of Brazil. A regional geographic information system (GIS) serves as the data source of climate drivers, satellite images, land cover, and soil properties for input to the NASA Ames-CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model over a 8-km grid resolution. Simulation results supports the hypothesis that net primary production (NPP) is limited by cloud interception of solar radiation over the humid northwestern portion of the region. Peak annual rates for NPP of nearly 1.4 kg C m-2yr -1are localized in the seasonally dry eastern Amazon in areas that we assume are primarily deep-rooted evergreen forest cover. Regional effects of forest conversion on NPP and soil carbon content are indicated in the model results, especially in seasonally dry areas. Comparison of model flux predictions along selected eco-climatic transects reveal moisture, soil, and land use controls on gradients of ecosystem production and soil trace gas emissions (CO2, N2O, and NO). These results are used to formulate a series of research hypotheses for testing in the next phase of regional modeling, which includes recalibration of the light-use efficiency term in CASA using field measurements of NPP, and refinements of vegetation index and soil property (texture and potential rooting depth) maps for the region.

Potter, C. S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mapping the Ancient Maya Landscape from Space

This project uses new satellite and airborne imagery in combination with remote sensing, GIS, and GPS technology to understand the dynamics of how the Maya successfully interacted with their karst topographic landscape for several centuries in the northern Peten region of Guatemala. The ancient Maya attained one of the greatest population densities in human history in the tropical forest of the Peten, Guatemala, and it was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared for unknown reasons around AD 800. How the Maya were able to successfully manage water and feed this dense population is not known at this time. However, a recent NASA-funded project was the first to investigate large seasonal swamps (bajos) that make up 40 percent of the landscape. Through the use of remote sensing, ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals and water reservoirs have been detected and verified through ground reconnaissance. The results of this research cast new light on the adaptation of the ancient Maya to their environment. Micro-environmental variation within the wetlands was elucidated and the different vegetational associations identified in the satellite imagery. More than 70 new archeological sites within and at the edges of the bajo were mapped and tested. Modification of the landscape by the Maya in the form of dams and reservoirs in the Holmul River and its tributaries and possible drainage canals in bajos was demonstrated. The recent acquisition of one-meter IKONOS imagery and high resolution STAR-3i radar imagery (2.5m backscatter/ 10m DEM), opens new possibilities for understanding how a civilization was able to survive for centuries upon a karst topographic landscape and their human-induced effects upon the local climate. This understanding is critical for the current population that is presently experiencing rapid population growth and destroying the landscape through non-traditional farming and grazing techniques, resulting in socioeconomic problems.

Sever, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2004

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation

This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.

Walker, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stable Targets for Spaceborne Microwave Radiometer Calibration

Beginning in the 1970s, continuous observations of the Earth have been made by spaceborne microwave radiometers. Since these instruments have different observational characteristics, care must be taken in combining their data to form consistent long term records of brightness temperatures and derived geophysical quantities. To be useful for climate studies, data from different instruments must be calibrated relative to each other and to reference targets on the ground whose characteristics are stable and can be monitored continuously. Identifying such targets over land is not straightforward due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the land surface and cover. In this work, we provide an analysis of multi-sensor brightness temperature statistics over ocean, tropical forest, and ice sheet locations, spanning the period from 1978 to the present, and indicate the potential of these sites as continuous calibration monitoring targets.

microwave radiometers↗
NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Remote Sensing and the Thermodynamics of Ecosystem Development

Thermal remote sensing can provide environmental measuring tools with capabilities for measuring ecosystem development and integrity. Recent advances in applying principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics to ecology provide fundamental insights into energy partitioning in ecosystems. Ecosystems are nonequilibrium systems, open to material and energy flows, which grow and develop structures and processes to increase energy degradation. More developed terrestrial ecosystems will be more effective at dissipating the solar gradient (degrading its exergy content) and can be measured by the effective surface temperature of the ecosystem on a landscape scale. Ecosystems are viewed as open thermodynamic systems with a large gradient impressed on them by the exergy flux from the sun. Ecosystems, according to the restated second law, develop in ways that systematically increases their ability to degrade the incoming solar exergy, hence negating it's ability to set up even larger gradients. Thus it should be expected that more mature ecosystems degrade the exergy they capture more completely than a less developed ecosystem. The degree to which incoming solar exergy is degraded is a function of the surface temperature of the ecosystem. If a group of ecosystems receives the same amount of incoming radiation, we would expect that the most mature ecosystem would reradiate its energy at the lowest quality level and thus would have the lowest surface temperature (coldest black body temperature). Initial development work was done using NASA's airborne Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) followed by the use of a multispectral visible and thermal scanner-Airborne Thermal and Land Applications Sensor (ATLAS). Luvall and his coworkers have documented ecosystem energy budgets, including tropical forests, midlatitude varied ecosystems, and semiarid ecosystems. These data show that under similar environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, winds, and solar irradiance) and within a given biome type, the more developed the ecosystem, the cooler it's surface temperature and the more degraded the quality of it's reradiated energy. HyspIRI is a hyperspectral visible/Near IR and multispectral thermal future global satellite mission that will collect data to study the world's ecosystems and will provide a benchmark on the state of the worlds ecosystems against which future changes can be assessed. HyspIRI will provide global data sets that will provide a means for measuring ecosystem development and integrity.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Remote Sensing and the Thermodynamics of Ecosystem Development

Thermal remote sensing can provide environmental measuring tools with capabilities for measuring ecosystem development and integrity. Recent advances in applying principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics to ecology provide fundamental insights into energy partitioning in ecosystems. Ecosystems are nonequilibrium systems, open to material and energy flows, which grow and develop structures and processes to increase energy degradation. More developed terrestrial ecosystems will be more effective at dissipating the solar gradient (degrading its exergy content) and can be measured by the effective surface temperature of the ecosystem on a landscape scale. Ecosystems are viewed as open thermodynamic systems with a large gradient impressed on them by the exergy flux from the sun. Ecosystems, according to the restated second law, develop in ways that systematically increases their ability to degrade the incoming solar exergy, hence negating it's ability to set up even larger gradients. Thus it should be expected that more mature ecosystems degrade the exergy they capture more completely than a less developed ecosystem. The degree to which incoming solar exergy is degraded is a function of the surface temperature of the ecosystem. If a group of ecosystems receives the same amount of incoming radiation, we would expect that the most mature ecosystem would reradiate its energy at the lowest quality level and thus would have the lowest surface temperature (coldest black body temperature). Initial development work was done using NASA's airborne Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) followed by the use of a multispectral visible and thermal scanner- Airborne Thermal and Land Applications Sensor (ATLAS). Luvall and his coworkers have documented ecosystem energy budgets, including tropical forests, midlatitude varied ecosystems, and semiarid ecosystems. These data show that under similar environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, winds, and solar irradiance) and within a given biome type, the more developed the ecosystem, the cooler it's surface temperature and the more degraded the quality of it's reradiated energy. HyspIRI is a hyperspectral visible/Near IR and multispectral thermal future global satellite mission that will collect data to study the world's ecosystems and will provide a benchmark on the state of the worlds ecosystems against which future changes can be assessed. HyspIRI will provide global data sets that will provide a means for measuring ecosystem development and integrity.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Top-Down Smoke-Aerosol Emissions Estimation Using Satellite Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Fire emissions estimates have long been based on bottom-up approaches that are not only complex, but also fraught with compounding uncertainties. We present the development of a global gridded (1 deg ×1 deg) emission coefficients (Ce) product for smoke total particulate matter (TPM) based on a top-down approach using coincident measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. This new Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0 (FEER.v1) Ce product has now been released to the community and can be obtained from http://feer.gsfc. nasa.gov/, along with the corresponding 1-to-1 mapping of their quality assurance (QA) flags that will enable the Ce values to be filtered by quality for use in various applications. The regional averages of Ce values for different ecosystem types were found to be in the ranges of 16-21/gMJ−1 for savanna and grasslands, 15-32/gMJ−1 for tropical forest, 9-12/gMJ−1 for North American boreal forest, and 18- 26/MJ−1 for Russian boreal forest, croplands and natural vegetation. The FEER.v1 Ce product was multiplied by time-integrated FRP data to calculate regional smoke TPM emissions, which were compared with equivalent emissions products from three existing inventories. FEER.v1 showed higher and more reasonable smoke TPM estimates than two other emissions inventories that are based on bottom-up approaches and already reported in the literature to be too low, but portrayed an overall reasonable agreement with another top-down approach. This suggests that top-down approaches may hold better promise and need to be further developed to accelerate the reduction of uncertainty associated with fire emissions estimation in air-quality and climate research and applications. Results of the analysis of FEER.v1 data for 2004-2011 show that 65-85 Tg yr−1 of TPM is emitted globally from open biomass burning, with a generally decreasing trend over this short time period. The FEER.v1 Ce product is the first global gridded product in the family of "emission factors", that is based essentially on satellite measurements, and requires only direct satellite FRP measurements of an actively burning fire anywhere to evaluate its emission rate in near-real time, which is essential for operational activities, such as the monitoring and forecasting of smoke emission impacts on air quality.

biomass burning↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of the Impacts of Biomass Burning Aerosols on the NASA GEOS Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Emission sources of trace gases and aerosol particles in the South American (SA)and African (Af) continents have a strong seasonal and space variability associated with the extensive vegetation fires activities. In both continents, during the austral winter, the fires affect mainly tropical forest and savannah-type biomes and are mostly associated with deforestation and agricultural/pasture land management. Smoke aerosol particles, on average, contribute to at least 90% of the total aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the visible spectrum in the case of the South America regional smoke. Smoke aerosols also act as cloud condensation nuclei affecting cloud microphysics properties and therefore, changing the radiation budget, hydrological cycle and global circulation patterns over disturbed areas (Kaufman, 1995; Rosenfeld, 1999; Andreae,et al., 2004; Koren et al., 2004, Zhang, 2008; Ott et al., 2010; Randles et al., 2013). This study aims to evaluate and quantify the impact of including a comprehensive emission field of biomass burning aerosol on the performance of a seasonal climate forecast system, not only regarding the AOD itself but mainly on the meteorological state variable (e.g., precipitation and temperature). To address the questions put above, we designed two numerical experiments: 1- named"AERO_CTL" which applies the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED) emissions estimated with intra-diurnal variation (hereafter, BBE), and 2- named "AERO_CLM" where the sourcee mission is based on a climatology of the QFED emissions, with only monthly variation(hereafter, BBCLIM). Hindcast simulations were produced using the Goddard Earth ObservingSystem global circulation model, version 5, sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS5-S2S) system with a nominal spatial resolution of 56km (Rienecker et al., 2008). In both experiments, the aerosol feedbacks from cloud developments and radiation interactions were accounted. The two experiments consisted of 4 members each and ran from June to November spanning over the years 2000 to 2015. Model performance was evaluated by calculating statistical metrics on the mean area of SA and Af. Our results demonstrated that the skill model in predicting AOD is significantly improve when BBE source emission is applied over SA, but not over the Afcontinent. Over SA, the correlation between the AERO_CTL model configuration and MERRA-2 is 0.93 (R2= 0.86, RMS=0.02, BIAS=0.01), while the AERO_CLM model presents a value of0.81 (R2= 0.65, RMS=0.04, BIAS=0.06). However, the AERO_CTL experiment better represents the inter-annual variability of the AOS in both regions. The gain of the skill in predicting the AOD by the AERO_CTL experiment is also seen in some meteorological variables. We observed an increase in the model skill in predicting the 2-meter temperature and precipitation of up to 0.3 for the AERO_CTL experiment in comparison to the AERO_CLM. AERO_CLM. According to the analyzed hindcast, we inferred that representing the BBE more realistically implies in a significant gain of skills in the seasonal climate forecasting over SA and Af continents.

Aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2020

Unmasking secondary vegetation dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon

Secondary vegetation (SV) from land abandonment is a common transition phase between agricultural uses following tropical deforestation. The impact of SV on carbon sequestration and habitat fragmentation across tropical forest frontiers therefore depends on SV dynamics and demographics. Here, we used time series of annual MapBiomas land cover data to generate the first estimates of SV extent, age, and net carbon uptake in the Brazilian Amazon between 1985 and 2017. SV increased over time, totaling 12 Mha in 2017, 44% of which was ≤5 years old. Between 1988 and 2017, 19.6 Mha of SV was cleared, adding 45.5% to the area of primary deforestation detected by the Brazilian monitoring system (PRODES). Rates of SV loss have exceeded PRODES deforestation since 2011. Based on the age and extent of gains and losses, SV was a small net carbon sink during this period (8.9 Tg C/yr). As SV is not formally protected by national environmental legislation or monitored by PRODES, long-term benefits from SV in the Brazilian Amazon remain uncertain.

Brazilian Amazon↗
NASA NTRS2023

Surface Biology and Geology Imaging Spectrometer: A Case Study to Optimize the Mission Design Using Intrinsic Dimensionality

The information content that can be derived from spectroscopic imagery tends to increase with finer ground sampling distance, finer spectral sampling, more frequent revisit, and higher signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). However, these parameters are not independent, and it is thus impossible to design a space-borne imaging spectrometer to maximize all of them simultaneously. We present an instrument model and simulation environment that enable us to find the optimal combination of these four mission design parameters, using intrinsic dimensionality (ID) as the metric. ID is the size of the signal subspace – the maximum degrees of freedom when noise can be disregarded – and is a metric that is independent of any one particular algorithm or application area. This study is important for upcoming missions such as NASA's Earth System Observatory mission to study the Earth's Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), which will comprise a visible to shortwave infrared spectrometer in addition to a multi-channel thermal radiometer on a separate platform. When evaluating a desert site and a tropical forested site, we find that spectral resolution drives information content, with a significant drop in normalized ID (15–45% decrease) when simulating 15 nm spectral sampling as opposed to 10 nm spectral sampling. However, there was some variation between sites, with the forested site benefiting from 5 nm spectral sampling, whereas the desert site had poorer results at this resolution, due to the impact on noise. At 10 nm spectral sampling, ground sampling distances in the range 30–50 m provided the optimal balance between spatial resolution and SNR, although more frequent revisit, potentially by combining data from multiple missions, would maximize total information content.

Mission design↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗