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At least 397 records · Page 22

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Network Security via Biometric Recognition of Patterns of Gene Expression

Molecular biology provides the ability to implement forms of information and network security completely outside the bounds of legacy security protocols and algorithms. This paper addresses an approach which instantiates the power of gene expression for security. Molecular biology provides a rich source of gene expression and regulation mechanisms, which can be adopted to use in the information and electronic communication domains. Conventional security protocols are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to more intensive, highly capable attacks on the underlying mathematics of cryptography. Security protocols are being undermined by social engineering and substandard implementations by IT (Information Technology) organizations. Molecular biology can provide countermeasures to these weak points with the current security approaches. Future advances in instruments for analyzing assays will also enable this protocol to advance from one of cryptographic algorithms to an integrated system of cryptographic algorithms and real-time assays of gene expression products.

cybersecurity↗

AI-based Detection and Defense Against Cyberattacks in Distributed Energy Resources

This study will provide comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI)-based solution tools for network security, malware prevention, and sensor data anomaly detection for distributed energy resource (DER) research, development, and demonstration. DER technologies are energy systems (e.g., solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) that are often connected to the internet and thus vulnerable to cyberattacks. Cybersecurity should be of primary concern for DERs, which is why we propose an integrated multi-layer cyber-defense system for DERs. This system encompasses risk assessments, network security, malware prevention, and detection of anomalies in the sensor data. Implementation of a comprehensive risk assessment with an overview of the model architecture should be the primary step, and should include the potential impact of experiencing, at a given time, one or more cyberattacks on the system. The second step is to ensure that the network security includes firewalls, intrusion detection, and malware prevention. The third step is to provide solution tools that enable sensor data anomaly detection for DERs. By incorporating these considerations into DER research, development, and demonstration, organizations can help ensure the safety and security of their systems and protect against potential cyberattacks.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

A comparison of smartphone and infrasound microphone data from a fuel air explosive and a high explosive

For prompt detection of large (>1 kt) above-ground explosions, infrasound microphone networks and arrays are deployed at surveyed locations across the world. Denser regional and local networks are deployed for smaller explosions, however, they are limited in number and are often deployed temporarily for experiments. With the expanded interest in smaller yield explosions targeted at vulnerable areas such as population centers and key infrastructures, the need for more dense microphone networks has increased. An “attritable” (affordable, reusable, and replaceable) and flexible alternative can be provided by smartphone networks. Explosion signals from a fuel air explosive (thermobaric bomb) and a high explosive with trinitrotoluene equivalent yields of 6.35 and 3.63 kg, respectively, were captured on both an infrasound microphone and a network of smartphones. The resulting waveforms were compared in time, frequency, and time-frequency domains. The acoustic waveforms collected on smartphones produced a filtered explosion pulse due to the smartphone's diminishing frequency response at infrasound frequencies (<20 Hz) and was found difficult to be used with explosion characterization methods utilizing waveform features (peak overpressure, impulse, etc.). However, the similarities in time frequency representations and additional sensor inputs are promising for other explosion signal identification and analysis. As an example, a method utilizing the relative acoustic amplitudes for source localization using the smartphone sensor network is presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterizing Long Island’s Extreme Precipitation and Its Relationship to Tropical Cyclones

Since extreme precipitation impacts society on small scales (i.e., a few kilometers and smaller, it is worthwhile to explore extreme precipitation trends in localized regions, such as Long Island (LI), New York. Its coastal location makes it vulnerable to various extreme events, such as tropical cyclones (TCs). This work aimed to quantify the extreme precipitation events on LI that are caused by TCs, as well as the percentage of TCs passing close to LI that cause extreme precipitation events. Both gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation datasets of varying resolutions (DAYMET, IMERG, and CPC) were used to understand the impact of dataset selection. Results are shown for the common time period of 2001–2020, as well as the full time periods of each dataset. DAYMET shows the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events linked to TCs for 2001–2020 (a maximum of 7.2%) and the highest number of TCs that caused extreme precipitation events (36.5%), with IMERG showing similar results. For the full and common time periods, the highest percentage of extreme precipitation events caused by TCs was found in eastern LI. TC-related extreme precipitation averaged over LI varied year to year, and amounts were dependent on the resolution of the observational dataset, but most datasets showed an increasing trend in the last 19 years that is larger than the trend in mean precipitation. Current infrastructure in the region is likely inadequately prepared for future impacts from TC-related extreme precipitation events in such a population-dense region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress and Aeronautical Team Decision Making: Strengthening the Weak Links

A model that characterizes pilots'decision making in flight will be presented. Elements of the model that appear most vulnerable to stress will be examined in light of accidents and incidents. The model includes two major components: Situation assessment and choice of a course of action. While based on Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Making, it is tailored to the aviation environment which includes certain features that may be common to other domains: Primarily, aviation is highly proceduralized and options are generally well known. What appears to make decisions difficult are ambiguity, time pressure, and risk. In addition, decisions must often be made while carrying out the standard procedures of flight, including checklists, review of approach plates, standard briefings, and communication with air traffic controllers or cabin crew. The effects of stressors on decision making by pilots with varying levels of expertise will be explored, along with strategies for strengthening the weak links.

Orasanu, Judith↗

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

Abstract To explore the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), and potential effect amelioration through mitigation and adaptation, we searched for papers published from January 2010 to October 2023. We descriptively synthesised extracted data. We analysed numbers of papers meeting our inclusion criteria by country and national disease burden, healthcare access and quality index (HAQI), as well as by climate vulnerability score. From 42 693 retrieved records, 1543 full-text papers were assessed. Of 511 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, 185 studied malaria, 181 dengue and chikungunya and 53 leishmaniasis; other NTDs were relatively understudied. Mitigation was considered in 174 papers (34%) and adaption strategies in 24 (5%). Amplitude and direction of effects of climate change on malaria and NTDs are likely to vary by disease and location, be non-linear and evolve over time. Available analyses do not allow confident prediction of the overall global impact of climate change on these diseases. For dengue and chikungunya and the group of non-vector-borne NTDs, the literature privileged consideration of current low-burden countries with a high HAQI. No leishmaniasis papers considered outcomes in East Africa. Comprehensive, collaborative and standardised modelling efforts are needed to better understand how climate change will directly and indirectly affect malaria and NTDs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration

Climate change is reshaping vulnerable ecosystems, leading to uncertain effects on ecosystem dynamics, including evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). However, accurate estimation of ET and R eco still remains challenging at sparsely monitored watersheds, where data and field instrumentation are limited. In this study, we developed a hybrid predictive modeling approach (HPM) that integrates eddy covariance measurements, physically based model simulation results, meteorological forcings, and remote-sensing datasets to estimate ET and R eco in high space–time resolution. HPM relies on a deep learning algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) and requires only air temperature, precipitation, radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil temperature (when available) as input variables. We tested and validated HPM estimation results in different climate regions and developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability and variability of HPM at various FLUXNET sites and Rocky Mountain SNOTEL sites in Western North America. To test the limitations and performance of the HPM approach in mountainous watersheds, an expanded use case focused on the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. The results indicate HPM is capable of identifying complicated interactions among meteorological forcings, ET, and R eco variables, as well as providing reliable estimation of ET and R eco across relevant spatiotemporal scales, even in challenging mountainous systems. The study documents that HPM increases our capability to estimate ET and R eco and enhances process understanding at sparsely monitored watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Sub-Neptune Desert and Its Dependence on Stellar Type: Controlled by Lifetime X-Ray Irradiation

Short-period sub-Neptunes with substantial volatile envelopes are among the most common type of known exoplanets. However, recent studies of the Kepler population have suggested a dearth of sub-Neptunes on highly irradiated orbits, where they are vulnerable to atmospheric photoevaporation. Physically, we expect this "photoevaporation desert" to depend on the total lifetime X-ray and extreme ultraviolet flux, the main drivers of atmospheric escape. In this work, we study the demographics of sub-Neptunes as a function of lifetime exposure to high-energy radiation and host-star mass. We find that for a given present-day insolation, planets orbiting a 0.3 solar mass star experience approximately 100 times more X-ray flux over their lifetimes versus a 1.2 solar mass star. Defining the photoevaporation desert as a region consistent with zero occurrence at 2 sigma, the onset of the desert happens for integrated X-ray fluxes greater than 1.43 times 10 (sup 22) to 8.23 times 10 (sup 20) as a function of planetary radii for 1.8 to 4 Earth radius. We also compare the location of the photoevaporation desert for different stellar types. We find much greater variability in the desert onset in the bolometric flux space compared to the integrated X-ray flux space, suggestive of photoevaporation driven by steady-state stellar X-ray emissions as the dominant control on desert location. Finally, we report tentative evidence for the sub-Neptune valley, first seen around Sun-like stars, for M&K dwarfs. The discovery of additional planets around low-mass stars from surveys such as the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission will enable detailed exploration of these trends.

Planets and Satellites: Gaseous Planets↗

Detection and Diagnosis of Data Integrity Attacks in Solar Farms Based on Multilayer Long Short-Term Memory Network

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming more vulnerable to cyber threats. In response to this emerging concern, developing cyber-secure power electronics converters has received increased attention from the IEEE Power Electronics Society that recently launched a cyber-physical-security initiative. Here this letter proposes a deep sequence learning based diagnosis solution for data integrity attacks on PV systems in smart grids, including dc–dc and dc–ac converters. The multilayer long short-term memory networks are used to leverage time-series electric waveform data from current and voltage sensors in PV systems. The proposed method has been evaluated in a PV smart grid benchmark model with extensive quantitative analysis. As a comparison, we have evaluated classic data-driven methods, including K-nearest neighbor, decision tree, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and convolutional neural network. Comparison results verify performances of the proposed method for detection and diagnosis of various data integrity attacks on PV systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Design and Evaluation of Zero Trust Architecture for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: EVs @ Scale Series on EV Charging Station Cybersecurity

Implementing a zero trust architecture can significantly bolster the security of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. EV charging infrastructure includes numerous networked interfaces, each of which can present potential vulnerabilities. When these vulnerabilities are exploited, they can compromise the entire system, leading to severe operational and security risks. Zero trust is a security model that operates on the principle of "never trust, always verify," which helps manage the attack surface and limit the scope of any potential compromises. Fundamentally, this model ensures that no entity, whether inside or outside the network, is trusted by default. The design principles of zero trust include continuous verification, strict deny-by-default access controls, and micro-segmentation. Continuous verification ensures that every request is thoroughly checked, regardless of its origin. Strict access controls enforce the principle of least privilege, allowing users and devices only the minimum necessary access to perform their functions. Micro-segmentation involves dividing the network into smaller, isolated segments to prevent lateral movement in case of a breach. In the context of EV charging infrastructure, zero trust can be implemented through various strategies. For example, multi-factor authentication (MFA) can be required for engineers to access the management interfaces and control systems of charging stations. Real-time monitoring and analysis of network traffic can help detect and respond to anomalies. Systems that do not need to communicate with each other can be micro-segmented to enhance security. All communications should adhere to predefined policies to be permitted. Additionally, encrypting communications can protect sensitive information exchanged between chargers and management systems. This paper presents a zero trust architecture specifically designed for EV charging infrastructure. Implementing zero trust not only mitigates risks but also builds a resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding and quickly recovering from cyber threats. The architecture addresses six defined security objectives. A comprehensive test plan is developed to assess the architecture against these objectives, and the results of the evaluation are reported. This approach is essential for maintaining the reliability and integrity of EV charging services in an increasingly interconnected and vulnerable digital landscape. This is the first in a planned series of papers exploring the implementation of zero trust in EV charging infrastructure. Each paper will delve into different aspects and applications of zero trust, highlighting how various work processes and requirements can lead to distinct architectural designs. These architectures will be tailored to address specific security challenges and operational needs within the EV charging ecosystem, ensuring a robust and adaptable security framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.

variable-resolution global climate models↗

A study of degradation of plates for nickel-cadmium spacecraft cells

The relative merits of coining and not coining of sintered nickel oxide and cadmium plates was investigated. Sample plate materials from most commercial cell suppliers were obtained and characterized for properties that may correlate with the tendency toward physical disintegration during handling and over long periods of time in the cell. Special test methods were developed to obtain comparative data in a short time. A wide range of physical properties and coining thickness was observed, resulting in a range of responses. The stronger materials resisted loss of sinter better than weaker materials whether or not coined. Coining improved handling and resistance to electrochemical cycling of weaker materials. The mechanism of break-down of positive plate edges under cycling appears to be the same as that of thickening and blistering. Brittle, nonadherent sinter, resulting from certain impregnation processes, is the most vulnerable to degradation. It is concluded that the latter type of materials should be coined, but coining of strong materials is optional.

Scott, W. R.↗

Understanding Regional Inertia Dynamics in CAISO from Real Grid Disturbances

The shift from synchronous generators to inverter-based resources has caused power system inertia to be unevenly distributed across power grids. As a result, certain grid regions are more vulnerable to high rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This paper presents a measurement-based framework for estimating grid inertia in CAISO (California Independent System Operator) region using real disturbance-driven frequency data from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). By analyzing confirmed disturbances from 2013 to 2024, we identify trends in regional inertia and frequency dynamics, highlighting their relationship with renewable generation and the evolving duck curve. Regional RoCoF values were up to six times higher than interconnection-wide values, coinciding with declining inertia. Recent recovery in inertia is attributed to the increased deployment of battery energy storage systems with synthetic inertia capabilities. These findings underscore the importance of regional inertia monitoring, strategic resource planning, and adaptive operational practices to ensure grid reliability amid growing renewable integration.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

System Would Predictively Preempt Traffic Lights for Emergency Vehicles

Two electronic communication-and-control systems have been proposed as means of modifying the switching of traffic lights to give priority to emergency vehicles. Both systems would utilize the inductive loops already installed in the streets of many municipalities to detect vehicles for timing the switching of traffic lights. The proposed systems could be used alone or to augment other automated emergency traffic-light preemption systems that are already present in some municipalities, including systems that recognize flashing lights or siren sounds or that utilize information on the positions of emergency vehicles derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS). Systems that detect flashing lights and siren sounds are limited in range, cannot "see" or "hear" well around corners, and are highly vulnerable to noise. GPS-based systems are effective in rural areas and small cities, but are often ineffective in large cities because of frequent occultation of GPS satellite signals by large structures. In contrast, the proposed traffic-loop forward prediction system would be relatively invulnerable to noise, would not be subject to significant range limitations, and would function well in large cities -- even in such places as underneath bridges and in tunnels, where GPS-based systems do not work. One proposed system has been characterized as "car-active" because each participating emergency vehicle would be equipped with a computer and a radio transceiver that would communicate with stationary transceivers at the traffic loops. The other proposed system has been characterized as "car-passive" because a passive radio transponder would be installed on the underside of a participating vehicle.

Bachelder, Aaron↗

Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

Rushley, Stephanie↗

Temperature-Related Death and Illness

Based on present-day sensitivity to heat, an increase of thousands to tens of thousands of premature heat-related deaths in the summer and a decrease of premature cold-related deaths in the winter are projected each year as a result of climate change by the end of the century. Future adaptation will very likely reduce these impacts (see Changing Tolerance to Extreme Heat Finding). The reduction in cold-related deaths is projected to be smaller than the increase in heat-related deaths in most regions. Days that are hotter than usual in the summer or colder than usual in the winter are both associated with increased illness and death. Mortality effects are observed even for small differences from seasonal average temperatures. Because small temperature differences occur much more frequently than large temperature differences, not accounting for the effect of these small differences would lead to underestimating the future impact of climate change. An increase in population tolerance to extreme heat has been observed over time. Changes in this tolerance have been associated with increased use of air conditioning, improved social responses, and or physiological acclimatization, among other factors. Expected future increases in this tolerance will reduce the projected increase in deaths from heat. Older adults and children have a higher risk of dying or becoming ill due to extreme heat. People working outdoors, the socially isolated and economically disadvantaged, those with chronic illnesses, as well as some communities of color, are also especially vulnerable to death or illness.

winter↗

Vulnerability to dysfunction and muscle injury after unloading

OBJECTIVE: To test whether unloading increases vulnerability to eccentric exercise-induced dysfunction and muscle injury. DESIGN: Before-after trial. SETTING: General community. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: Two women and 5 men (73 +/- 3kg [mean +/- SE]) who were active college students but were not trained in lower body resistance exercise volunteered. INTERVENTION: Five weeks of unilateral lower limb suspension (ULLS), which has been shown to decrease strength and size of the unloaded, left, but not load-bearing, right quadriceps femoris muscle group (QF) by 20% and 14%, respectively; performance of 10 sets of ten eccentric actions with each QF immediately after the ULLS strength tests with a load equivalent to 65% of the post-ULLS eccentric 1-repetition maximum. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Concentric and eccentric 1-repetition maximum for the left, unloaded and the right, load-bearing QF measured immediately after ULLS and 1,4,7,9, and 11 days later; cross-sectional area and spin-spin relaxation time (T2) of each QF as determined by magnetic resonance imaging and measured the last day of ULLS and 3 days later. RESULTS: The mean load used for eccentric exercise was 23 +/- 2 and 30 +/- 3kg for the left, unloaded and right, load-bearing QF, respectively. The concentric and eccentric 1-repetition maximum for the unloaded and already weakened left QF was further decreased by 18% (p = .000) and 27% (p = .000), respectively, 1 day after eccentric exercise. Strength did not return to post-ULLS levels until 7 days of recovery. The right, load-bearing QF showed a 4% decrease (p = .002) in the eccentric 1-repetition maximum 1 day after eccentric exercise. The left, unloaded QF showed an increase in T2 (p = .002) in 18% of its cross-sectional area 3 days after the eccentric exercise, thus indicating muscle injury. The right, load-bearing QF showed no elevation in T2 (p = .280). CONCLUSION: Unloading increases vulnerability to eccentric exercise-induced dysfunction and muscle injury, even at relatively light loads.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗