Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “time series analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22

Automated pipeline framework for processing of large-scale building energy time series data

Commercial buildings account for one third of the total electricity consumption in the United States and a significant amount of this energy is wasted. Therefore, there is a need for “virtual” energy audits, to identify energy inefficiencies and their associated savings opportunities using methods that can be non-intrusive and automated for application to large populations of buildings. Here we demonstrate virtual energy audits applied to large populations of buildings’ time-series smart-meter data using a systematic approach and a fully automated Building Energy Analytics (BEA) Pipeline that unifies, cleans, stores and analyzes building energy datasets in a non-relational data warehouse for efficient insights and results. This BEA pipeline is based on a custom compute job scheduler for a high performance computing cluster to enable parallel processing of Slurm jobs. Within the analytics pipeline, we introduced a data qualification tool that enhances data quality by fixing common errors, while also detecting abnormalities in a building’s daily operation using hierarchical clustering. We analyze the HVAC scheduling of a population of 816 buildings, using this analytics pipeline, as part of a cross-sectional study. With our approach, this sample of 816 buildings is improved in data quality and is efficiently analyzed in 34 minutes, which is 85 times faster than the time taken by a sequential processing. The analytical results for the HVAC operational hours of these buildings show that among 10 building use types, food sales buildings with 17.75 hours of daily HVAC cooling operation are decent targets for HVAC savings. Overall, this analytics pipeline enables the identification of statistically significant results from population based studies of large numbers of building energy time-series datasets with robust results. These types of BEA studies can explore numerous factors impacting building energy efficiency and virtual building energy audits. This approach enables a new generation of data-driven buildings energy analysis at scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

California - Quality-Controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (130), Morro Bay / Derived Data

This collection provides spatiotemporally paired reanalysis and satellite data to supplement the lidar buoy observations during the California deployments. Point time series of observed and reanalysis data are provided, using inverse distance weighting to geolocate the reanalysis data to the buoy location. Gridded time series of reanalysis data are provided, covering the California coast and extending into the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data in the coastal California region are also provided. The reanalysis collection includes the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The satellite data collection is that of Ribal and Young (2019). All datasets are publicly available with the sources provided in the References section.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

California - Quality-controlled Reanalysis and Observational Data for Buoy (120), Humboldt / Derived Data

This collection provides spatiotemporally paired reanalysis and satellite data to supplement the lidar buoy observations during the California deployments. Point time series of observed and reanalysis data are provided, using inverse distance weighting to geolocate the reanalysis data to the buoy location. Gridded time series of reanalysis data are provided, covering the California coast and extending into the Pacific Ocean. Satellite data in the coastal California region are also provided. The reanalysis collection includes the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP). The satellite data collection is that of Ribal and Young (2019). All datasets are publicly available with the sources provided in the References section.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Real-time Intrusion Detection for High-bandwidth Research Networks using Unsupervised Deep Learning

Nowadays, data generated by large-scale scientific experiments are on the scale of petabytes per month. These data are transferred through dedicated high-bandwidth networks across distributed collaboration sites for processing, storage, and analysis. Like general purpose networks, research networks experience attacks. However, monitoring traffic in such high-bandwidth network environments is challenging with conventional deep packet inspection (DPI)- based network intrusion detection systems (NIDS). Recently, machine learning (ML) algorithms have shown potential in detecting anomalous patterns with better generalizability and faster speed. Compared to the general purpose networks, traffic movement in research network is less volatile and more likely to benefit from the ML-based anomaly analysis. We present ThunderSecure, an efficient AI-powered system for detecting anomalies in 100G research networks. ThunderSecure implements a high-throughput packet processing infrastructure using multi-cores and GPUs. It takes time-series statistics from a variety of network measurements and uses 2D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to explore both spatial and temporal dependencies in network data stream. Patterns of science data traffic are learned with a one-class neural network, which blends an Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE) with Gaussian mixture density estimation. Testing traffic flows exhibiting significant deviations from the learned baseline of normality are marked as anomalies. We trained ThunderSecure on hundreds of billions of science data packets recorded from a 100G research network at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The detection performance was evaluated on traffic captured from the same research network days and weeks after the training with different types of attack flows injected. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first ML work in the area of network anomaly detection that has been validated on such extreme scale datasets. Results show that ThunderSecure can recognize science data traffic that are captured long after the training and make nearly certain detection on those with anomalous flows injected, even in the case when the anomaly-to-normal mixing ratio is 0.1%.

Gong, Qian↗

Sensitivity analysis of in-pile critical heat flux experiments in TREAT for characterization of RIA power-transient effects

A reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is one type of postulated design basis accident (DBA) that can cause a departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) event in pressurized-water reactors (PWRs). A DNB occurrence and its consequences depend on the thermophysical properties of the fuel components and coolant, characteristics of the transient energy insertion into the fuel rod, and the onset of the critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon. To leverage the restart of the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility, an effort is currently underway to better understand the cladding-to-coolant heat transfer mechanisms and the CHF phenomenon under fast-transient irradiation conditions. This paper characterizes the impact of power transients on the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a TREAT Facility reactor heater rodlet CHF experiment to provide the priority of parameters that need to be investigated for an improved CHF model. Sobol sensitivity analysis methods and the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) code were used to identify key input parameters on the uncertainty in the prediction of peak outer- and inner-surface temperatures of the heater tube, as well as the time of the DNB event. A series of sensitivity analyses revealed the total energy deposition on the tube and the transient effects of power pulse had large impacts on the maximum temperatures. The CHF multiplier had the largest impact on the time occurrence of CHF. The overall results show the energy deposition rate in the tube is the most influencing factor to the manifestation of CHF and the resulting thermal-hydraulic behaviors of the tube. The multiplier for the CHF, which is interpreted as the predicted CHF value, has the largest Sobol indices for the time of the CHF in all cases, since it directly determines the occurrence of CHF. It is inferred that the uncertainties in the thermal-hydraulic behaviors of fuels increase with respect to the key parameters as the power pulse becomes broader, and an accurate estimation of the energy deposition rate is required to reduce the uncertainty in the evaluation of the integrity of fuel if the CHF is expected to occur near the peak power. Therefore, the outputs are expected to provide rigorous interpretation of ongoing in-pile CHF experiments in the TREAT Facility reactor regarding thermal-hydraulic behavior of the fuel system aiming for a new transient in-pile CHF model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Solid-state NMR of unlabeled plant cell walls: high-resolution structural analysis without isotopic enrichment

Abstract Background Multidimensional solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) spectroscopy has emerged as an indispensable technique for resolving polymer structure and intermolecular packing in primary and secondary plant cell walls. Isotope ( 13 C) enrichment provides feasible sensitivity for measuring 2D/3D correlation spectra, but this time-consuming procedure and its associated expenses have restricted the application of ssNMR in lignocellulose analysis. Results Here, we present a method that relies on the sensitivity-enhancing technique Dynamic Nuclear Polarization (DNP) to eliminate the need for 13 C-labeling. With a 26-fold sensitivity enhancement, a series of 2D 13 C– 13 C correlation spectra were successfully collected using the unlabeled stems of wild-type Oryza sativa (rice). The atomic resolution allows us to observe a large number of intramolecular cross peaks for fully revealing the polymorphic structure of cellulose and xylan. NMR relaxation and dipolar order parameters further suggest a sophisticated change of molecular motions in a ctl1 ctl2 double mutant: both cellulose and xylan have become more dynamic on the nanosecond and microsecond timescale, but the motional amplitudes are uniformly small for both polysaccharides. Conclusions By skipping isotopic labeling, the DNP strategy demonstrated here is universally extendable to all lignocellulose materials. This time-efficient method has landed the technical foundation for understanding polysaccharide structure and cell wall assembly in a large variety of plant tissues and species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multimodal sensor fusion framework for residential building occupancy detection

For several years now, smart building energy systems have been a research area of intensive activity. In light of the increasing need for sustainable buildings and energy systems, this trend motivates an increasing need for a solution to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve energy efficiency. This work proposes a high-performing and transferable occupancy detection framework that combines sensor data from different data modalities, including time series environmental data (temperature, humidity, and illuminance), image data, and acoustic energy data using ensemble method. To draw out the best prediction performance in each modality, the proposed framework was developed, including various models that were designed to learn the occupancy patterns reflected in the physical data streams. To tackle the time series environmental data, we designed two variants of an occupancy detection spatiotemporal pattern network (Occ-STPN) that performs both feature level and decision level fusion, respectively. We also propose a new metric; the fading memory mean square error (FMMSE), that provides a fair evaluation and penalization of delayed occupancy predictions. Multiple open-sourced datasets, including the Electricity Consumption and Occupancy and the University of California, Irvine's (UCI) building occupancy detection dataset, along with our own real data collected from six different houses, were used to validate the algorithms' performance. The experimental results presented herein break down the performance for each sensing modality, and a detailed analysis of the performance is also discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Application of a Chemical Index to Aerosol Mass Spectrometry: Delta Plots and Functional Group Distributions

A better understanding of the chemical properties of organic aerosol (OA) particles will improve our ability to characterize their sources and predict their lifetime. The high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) is widely used to measure OA in real time using thermal vaporization followed by electron ionization (EI). EI creates fragment ions that can be assigned to functional groups using delta analysis, a method of classifying mass spectra according to the presence of different chemically related ion series. In this study, we demonstrate the application of delta analysis to characterize molecular structures using a new visualization method. We also use delta analysis to quantify the functional group distribution with an average absolute error of ∼5–6% for individual standard molecules, comparable to the error observed for OA mixtures from biomass and coal combustion fit with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Finally, we apply delta functional group analysis to AMS positive matrix factorization (PMF) factors across seven different field campaigns and find a similar composition across the more oxidized factors with about 55% acid and 26% alcohol groups. The analysis method described here can be applied to any HR-ToF-AMS data set to provide quantitative relative functional group distributions for OA mixtures.

aerosol↗

The U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool: A National-Scale Interface for Modeling Light and Shade Patterns in Ten Common Agrivoltaic Configurations

Agrivoltaic systems are dual-use configurations that co-locate agriculture and photovoltaic (PV) infrastructure and require careful design to balance crop performance and energy generation. A critical element of agrivoltaic design is the spatial and temporal distribution of irradiance and shade within and around PV arrays. To support research, planning, and stakeholder decision-making, we introduce the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool, a novel web-based application that delivers high-resolution irradiance and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) modeling for ten standardized PV configurations across the conterminous United States. The tool leverages the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) System Advisor Model (SAM) to perform detailed irradiance simulations, using meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Outputs include seasonal, monthly, weekly, and diurnal patterns of available sunlight, amount of shade, irradiance, and PAR at ground level within agrivoltaic system footprints. For a user's selected location, these results are visualized through interactive visualizations, heatmaps, and time-series plots, designed to be accessible to both technical and non-technical users. In addition to facilitating rapid spatial exploration of agrivoltaic light environments, the tool will offer seamless integration with the InSPIRE Agrivoltaics Design and Analysis Model (ADAM). This optional workflow will allow users to port selected site and configuration parameters into a more advanced modeling environment for further customization of structural layouts, crop-system compatibility, power generation, and technoeconomic performance. Finally, to promote open science, the entire dataset will be hosted and available for open access through the OpenEI platform. By standardizing and disseminating high-quality irradiance data and design tools, the U.S. Agrivoltaic Shading Tool supports a wide range of users, including researchers, landowners, energy developers, and policymakers, in evaluating the agronomic and energetic feasibility of agrivoltaic systems across the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Experimental and Computational K-Edge X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure Analysis of Vanadium Catalysts

X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy is a powerful tool to reveal key structural and electronic features of isolated catalytic sites, yet insights into molecular structure and more detailed orbital analysis through a combination of experimental and computed XANES analysis are necessary for accurate interpretation of the spectra, especially when significant heterogeneity exits among the catalytic sites. Herein, we present an integrated computational and experimental strategy to determine both primary and secondary bonding interactions within the XANES pre-edge region for organovanadium complexes, which was developed using a series of well-defined molecular vanadium complexes and then applied to the characterization of a supported organovanadium olefin hydrogenation catalyst. Time-dependent density functional theory is used to predict the energy of pre-edge XANES features for a series of vanadium complexes with a variety of oxidation states and local coordination environments. Further, a calibration scheme incorporating different density functionals and basis sets is established, resulting in an optimized scheme that accurately predicts pre-edge energies with a mean absolute error of 0.40 eV. Second-shell coordination (e.g., V---V) effects within XANES are identified through the analysis of the computed dominant orbital contributions for multi-vanadium complexes. Orbital analysis also provided confirmation that the vanadium-hydride formation combined with the heterogeneity of the catalytic active species in ole-fin hydrogenation caused the energy shift and broadening of the pre-edge peak after hydrogen treatment of the silica-supported organovanadium pre-catalyst. This work further elucidates computational XANES simulations and techniques potentially guiding characterization in surface organometallic chemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar ( Sus scrofa ) and Its Connection to Classical Swine Fever Spread

Classical swine fever (CSF) is the one of the most devastating contagious diseases in domestic swine and wild boar/pigs (Sus scrofa). Population genetics is often used to estimate animal dispersal and can also help evaluate host population connectivity, which is crucial for understanding pathogen dispersal. We surveyed genetic population structure of boars using MIG-seq analysis to clarify the geographic barriers that influence boar dispersal in north-central Japan and to demonstrate the relationship between the spread of CSF infection among boars and their population structure. We obtained 382 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 348 wild boar samples, and the results of STRUCTURE analysis indicated that the highest ΔK value was at K = 2, followed by K = 4. Based on these results, it is evident that the Abukuma river, a major river within north-central Japan, does not act as a barrier to the gene flow of boars, but rather that human infrastructure hinders their dispersal. Further, according to the time series change in the capture site of CSF-infected wild boar and the sum of the probability of belonging to each of the four clades in individual CSF-infected wild boar, our results indicated that the genetic structure of boar populations was correlated with the outbreak pathway of CSF across our study region. Our study suggests that predictions of disease spread, especially for widely distributed host species, is challenging because of the risk of cryptic breaks and changes in wide range connectivity; however, understanding the genetic population structure of wild boar can be a useful tool for predicting the spread of CSF. We concluded that genetic analysis of host population structure may have the possibility to improve predictions of the future dynamics of disease spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Time-dependent probability density function analysis of H-mode transitions

Abstract The first application of time-dependent probability density function (PDF) analysis to the L-H transition in fusion plasmas is presented. PDFs are constructed using Doppler Backscattering data of perpendicular fluctuation velocity, , and turbulence from the edge region of the DIII-D tokamak. These raw time-series data are sliced into millisecond-long sliding time-windows to create PDFs. During the transition, the PDFs develop strong right tails, indicative of turbulence-suppressing localised flows in the plasma edge; such features and other subtle behaviours are explored using novel information geometry techniques. This letter examines the applicability of these techniques to predict L-H transitions and investigate predator-prey self-regulation theories between turbulence and perpendicular velocity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Relating Aerial Infrared Thermography Defects to Photovoltaic Performance: Preprint

In this research, we examine the relationship between aerial IR defect analysis and photovoltaic (PV) performance data for twelve utility- and commercial-scale solar sites in the United States. To do this, we fuse the site diagram geoJSON's, aerial infrared thermography (aIRT) defect analyses, and associated inverter time series, allowing for a direct comparison between site defects and time series data. Defect analyses were provided by Zeitview, under its Solar Insights platform. Following the data fusion process, we look at the relationship between system performance and aIRT defects. We investigate the relationship between degradation and hotspot defects, as well as the relationship between AC power data and offline strings and misaligned modules. In general, system degradation was not affected by long-term or balance-of-system (BoS) defects as they occurred infrequently in the data set. However, for one system, a near statistically significant relationship (p-value=0.057) was found when comparing the degradation of inverter blocks with several multi-hotspot defects to all other inverter blocks without this particular defect. There was strong alignment when comparing short-term recoverable module defects such as stuck trackers and offline strings to time series data. In general, we found that when an inverter block has more than 80% of modules flagged for one of these defects, its AC power time data is flat-lined and the inverter block is not producing.

aerial inspection↗

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic Phasor Modeling of Various Multipulse Rectifiers and a VSI Fed by 18-Pulse Asymmetrical Autotransformer Rectifier Unit for Fast Transient Analysis

To study the fast modelling of dynamic characteristics caused by power electronic switching, the dynamic phasor (DP) theory based on the time-varying Fourier decomposition and frequency shifting is firstly applied to the modelling of various multipulse rectifiers. The DP model for symmetrical 12-pulse phase-shifting reactor rectifier unit (PSR-RU) is derived with model order reduction, relations between ac and dc terminals, and Taylor series expansion. The DP model of asymmetrical 18-pulse autotransformer rectifier unit (AT-RU) is proposed based on the switching functions expressed in the DP domain. Meanwhile, the DP model of voltage source inverter (VSI) fed by asymmetrical 18-pulse AT-RU is built with the harmonic state-space (HSS) equations. Under both balanced and unbalanced conditions, the good calculation accuracy and rapid simulation speed of the developed DP models are validated by the detailed time-domain (TD) simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗