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DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional atomic packing in amorphous solids with liquid-like structure

Liquids and solids are two fundamental states of matter. However, our understanding of their three-dimensional atomic structure is mostly based on physical models. Here we use atomic electron tomography to experimentally determine the three-dimensional atomic positions of monatomic amorphous solids, namely a Ta thin film and two Pd nanoparticles. We observe that pentagonal bipyramids are the most abundant atomic motifs in these amorphous materials. Instead of forming icosahedra, the majority of pentagonal bipyramids arrange into pentagonal bipyramid networks with medium-range order. Molecular dynamics simulations further reveal that pentagonal bipyramid networks are prevalent in monatomic metallic liquids, which rapidly grow in size and form more icosahedra during the quench from the liquid to the glass state. Furthermore, these results expand our understanding of the atomic structures of amorphous solids and will encourage future studies on amorphous–crystalline phase and glass transitions in non-crystalline materials with three-dimensional atomic resolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ice processes in Antarctica: identification via multi-wavelength active and passive measurements and model evaluation (Final Report)

This project is based on new multi-frequency radar observations collected during the AWARE field campaign in 2016 at McMurdo Station by the ARM Mobile facility. Three scientific goals have been achieved. We have developed ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysics retrievals from multi-wavelength radar observations and ancillary observations, generally applicable at ARM sites. These technique generally better characterize the size of the ice crystals, their equivalent water content and the degree of riming better than using single wavelength techniques. We have characterized ice microphysical properties and ice processes via multi-frequency signatures. We have identified a unique mode in the McMurdo dataset appearing at quite cold temperature that we have attributed to riming processes. Triple frequency radar measurements unfortunately were available only for a short period but our work lays the foundation for building climatological and testing their replicability in models. Simultaneously case studies from the AWARE campaign have been exploited to evaluate and improve the NASA GISS ModelE3 climate model, including selection of case studies for combined goals of (i) running side-by-side using large-eddy simulation (LES) and ModelE3 in single-column model (SCM) mode and (ii) fingerprinting cloud processes in multi-wavelength radar observations. The different components of this work have contributed to 15 published papers with two currently under review.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Effects of Precipitation and Evapotranspiration on Soil Moisture Variability Within CMIP5 Using SMAP and ERA5 Data

=The effects of precipitation (Pr) and evapotranspiration (ET) on surface soil moisture (SSM) play an essential role in the land-atmosphere system. Here we evaluate multimodel differences of these effects within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) compared to Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) products and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) as references in a frequency domain. The variability of SSM, Pr, and ET within three frequency bands (1/7 ~ 1/30 days -1 , 1/30 ~ 1/90 days -1 , and 1/90 ~ 1/365 days -1 ) after normalization is quantified using Fourier transform. We analyze the impact of ET and Pr on SSM variability based on a transfer function assuming that these variables form a linear time-invariant (LTI) system. For the total effects of ET and Pr on SSM variability, the CMIP5 estimations are smaller than the reference data in the two higher frequency bands and are larger than the reference data in the lowest frequency band. Besides, the effects on SSM by Pr and ET are found to be different across the three frequency bands. In each frequency band, the variability of the factor that dominates SSM (i.e., Pr or ET) from CMIP5 is smaller than that from the references. This study identifies the spatiotemporal distribution of differences between CMIP5 models and references (SMAP and ERA5) in simulating ET and Pr effects on SSM within three frequency bands. This study provides insightful information on how soil moisture variability is affected by varying precipitation and evapotranspiration at different time scales within Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen bond arrangements in (H 2 O) 20, 24, 28 clathrate hydrate cages: Optimization and many-body analysis

Here we provide a detailed study of hydrogen bonding arrangements, relative stability, residual entropy, and an analysis of the many-body effects in the (H 2 O) 20 (D-cage), (H 2 O) 24 (T-cage), and (H 2 O) 28 (H-cage) hollow cages making up structures I (sI) and II (sII) of clathrate hydrate lattices. Based on the enumeration of the possible hydrogen bonding networks for a fixed oxygen atom scaffold, the residual entropy (S 0 ) of these three gas phase cages was estimated at 0.754 82, 0.754 44, and 0.754 17 · Nk b , where N is the number of molecules and k b is Boltzmann’s constant. A previously identified descriptor of enhanced stability based on the relative arrangement and connectivity of nearest-neighbor fragments on the polyhedral water cluster [strong-weak-effective-bond model] also applies to the larger hollow cages. The three cages contain a maximum of 7, 9, and 11 such preferable arrangements of trans nearest dimer pairs with one “free” OH bond on the donor molecule (t1d dimers). The Many-Body Expansion (MBE) up to the 4-body suggests that the many-body terms vary nearly linearly with the cluster binding energy. Using a hierarchical approach of screening the relative stability of networks starting from optimizations with the TIP4P, TTM2.1-F, and MB-pol classical potentials, subsequently refining at more accurate levels of electronic structure theory (DFT and MP2), and finally correcting for zero-point energy, we were able to identify a group of four low-lying isomers of the (H 2 O) 24 T-cage, two of which are antisymmetric and the other two form a pair of antipode configurations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

The impact of anisotropic thermal expansion on the isothermal annealing of polycrystalline α -uranium

Although grain growth impacts microstructural evolution in a wide variety of materials systems, the effect of anisotropic thermal expansion on grain boundary mobility and texture evolution has not been widely studied. Anisotropic thermal expansion occurs in multiple non-cubic metals, and the thermomechanical processing behavior of these materials can be better understood with further study into the impact of thermal expansion on grain boundary mobility and texture evolution. In this work, we develop a mesoscale phase field model of grain growth that includes the effect of anisotropic thermal expansion, which is applied to study polycrystalline α-uranium, a highly anisotropic metal. Three-dimensional simulations on polycrystalline a-uranium with and without thermal expansion eigenstrains are performed to study the grain boundary mobility and texture evolution as a function of temperature. A strain-free temperature of 933 K is selected, and the system is studied at within the range of 873 – 933 K at intervals of ten degrees, resulting in increasing thermal eigenstrain with decreasing temperature. We also estimate a grain boundary mobility prefactor and activation energy based on existing experimental data of isothermal annealing of α-uranium. The grain boundary mobility is found to display significant deviation from Arrhenius behavior with the inclusion of thermal expansion eigenstrain as the amount of thermal eigenstrain (and thus elastic strain energy within the system) increases. This result explains an experimentally observed grain boundary mobility deviation from Arrhenius behavior. Furthermore, the texture evolution is affected, such that the grain orientations become less random with increasing thermal eigenstrain, which could explain experimentally observed texture behavior. These results indicate that the effect of thermal expansion should be considered when predicting the thermomechanical processing behavior of α-uranium and other materials with anisotropic thermal expansion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gapless spin liquid and pair density wave of the Hubbard model on three-leg triangular cylinders

We study the ground state properties of the Hubbard model on three-leg triangular cylinders using large-scale density-matrix renormalization group simulations. At half-filling, we identify an intermediate gapless spin liquid phase, which has one gapless spin mode and algebraic spin–spin correlations but exponential decay scalar chiral–chiral correlations, between a metallic phase at weak coupling and Mott insulating dimer phase at strong interaction. Upon light doping the gapless spin liquid, the system exhibits power-law charge-density-wave (CDW) correlations but short-range single-particle, spin–spin, and chiral–chiral correlations. Similar to CDW correlations, the superconducting correlations also decay in power-law but oscillate in sign as a function of distance, which is consistent with the striped pair-density wave. When further doping the gapless spin liquid phase or doping the dimer order phase, another phase takes over, which has similar CDW correlations but all other correlations decay exponentially.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust d x 2 - y 2 -wave superconductivity of infinite-layer nickelates

Motivated by the recent observation of superconductivity in strontium-doped NdNiO 2 , we study the superconducting instabilities in this system from various vantage points. Starting with first-principles calculations, we construct two distinct tight-binding models, a simpler single-orbital as well as a three-orbital model, both of which capture the key low-energy degrees of freedom to varying degrees of accuracy. We study superconductivity in both models using the random phase approximation. We then analyze the problem at stronger coupling, and study the dominant pairing instability in the associated t-J model limit. Finally, in all instances, the dominant pairing tendency is in the d x 2 -y 2 channel, analogous to the cuprate superconductors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

A GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist for Guiding MOF Discovery**

Abstract We present a new framework integrating the AI model GPT‐4 into the iterative process of reticular chemistry experimentation, leveraging a cooperative workflow of interaction between AI and a human researcher. This GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist is an integrated system composed of three phases. Each of these utilizes GPT‐4 in various capacities, wherein GPT‐4 provides detailed instructions for chemical experimentation and the human provides feedback on the experimental outcomes, including both success and failures, for the in‐context learning of AI in the next iteration. This iterative human‐AI interaction enabled GPT‐4 to learn from the outcomes, much like an experienced chemist, by a prompt‐learning strategy. Importantly, the system is based on natural language for both development and operation, eliminating the need for coding skills, and thus, make it accessible to all chemists. Our collaboration with GPT‐4 Reticular Chemist guided the discovery of an isoreticular series of MOFs, with each synthesis fine‐tuned through iterative feedback and expert suggestions. This workflow presents a potential for broader applications in scientific research by harnessing the capability of large language models like GPT‐4 to enhance the feasibility and efficiency of research activities.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2020

RELAP-7 Application and Enhancement for FLEX Strategies and ATF Behavior under Extended Loss of AC Power Conditions

This report summarizes the results of a three-year research project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) to enhance and apply the RELAP-7 code by adding and improving several important components (e.g., a mechanistic Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) system model) for thermal hydraulic studies of LWRs under ELAP conditions and evaluating the time available for transition to portable FLEX equipment. The project team included University of Massachusetts–Lowell, The Ohio State University, Texas A&M University, Idaho National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In the Fukushima accident, it was found that the RCIC system played a crucial role in delaying core meltdown by almost three days in Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2, because of self-regulated operation of the steam driven RCIC turbine-pump injection system. Steam flow in the convergent-divergent nozzles of the RCIC Terry turbine is two-phase non-equilibrium transonic flow with homogenous nucleation condensation. To more accurately predict the dynamic process and behavior of the transonic compressible steam flow, a one-dimensional transient two-phase analytical model is presented. A simplified four-fluid model was employed in the present work with the consideration of four separate fluid fields: vapor, liquid film, entrained droplets and condensed droplets. The mass, momentum and energy interactions between the fluids were considered and modeled. An extended seven-equation non-equilibrium critical flow model was developed to obtain the critical pressure and velocities of each phase at the nozzle throat. To predict the wetness in the divergent section, a mechanistic nucleation condensation model was integrated in the nozzle analysis model, considering the generation and consequent growth of droplets. The governing differential equations on a staggered grid were discretized using the second-order Lax-Wendroff scheme with a flux limiter, and the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE) algorithm was employed to solve the discrete linear system. To demonstrate the predictability and reliability of the physical models and the numerical method proposed in the present work, three representative nozzles were modeled and simulated. The results show good agreement with the available experimental data, even for condensation shock. Then, the 1D nozzle model was employed to obtain nozzle flow tables of the Terry turbine nozzle for different working pressures which can cover the operation pressure range of the RCIC system. A mechanistic RCIC turbine-pump system model was developed and implemented in the system code TRACE to simulate dynamic responses of the RCIC system under Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) conditions. The turbine-pump governing equations are based on the control volume approach of the angular momentum balance. The physics based mechanistic RCIC model was developed using the TRACE control system components (i.e., signal variables, control blocks, and tables), and incorporated into a TRACE boiling water reactor (BWR) model. The TRACE model in this report has a detailed nodalization of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV), and all of the major flow paths and system components, including the safety relief valves (SRVs) and the containment suppression pool and drywell. Based on the nozzle flow tables generated from the 1D nozzle model developed, the turbine drive torque can be calculated from table lookup. Since the detailed specifications of the RCIC pump are unavailable, the homologous curves for a Bingham pump were used in the current pump component. A station black-out (SBO) accident test problem was selected to demonstrate the TRACE RCIC model. The short-term SBO simulations were performed for two cladding materials: Zircaloy and FeCrAl, to demonstrate the effect of the accident tolerant fuel cladding on fuel heat-up under BDBA accident conditions. The wetwell plays a vital safety role in SBO and other BWR accident scenarios in that it can reduce containment pressure and supply additional core make-up water. The suppression pool temperature distribution has a very large impact on both RPV and containment pressure. Thus, another novel contribution of the project comes mainly from an improved, systems-level wetwell model which can capture buoyancy-induced thermal stratification effects due to steam injection and condensation. A two-zone stratified wetwell model has been implemented in RELAP-7 and some results from that model are presented. This wetwell model is capable of simulating thermal stratification due to a low steam mass injection rate. With a low mass flow rate, the model assumes that all the steam condenses within the pipe and the resulting plume can be approximated with a purely buoyant, heat-source driven model. The wetwell model developed with these assumptions is adequate to simulate slow transients such as extended SBO transients.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of Nonlinear Black-Box Modeling for Power Electronics Converters

With the increasing penetration level of renewable sources and power electronics loads in modern power systems, accurate and computationally efficient models are needed. Black-box model (BBM) could be a useful method in such systems. However, not very extensive research efforts have been made for power electronics BBM so far, and existing works mostly focus on steady-state operation, neglecting the important transient behaviors such as load transients, voltage transients, and faults. This paper presents a comparative study of three commonly used nonlinear BBM approaches for transient behaviors of power electronics converters. Comparison methods are proposed, and the evaluations are conducted under different transients using a grid-connected single-phase photovoltaic inverter. The findings of this study provide valuable references for further feasibility investigations on implementing BBMs in large-scale power electronics-rich power systems.

Qiao, Liang↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. II. cosmological results

Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤⁢ CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ ⁢CDM) and 90% (𝑤 ⁢CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ⁢ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 ⁢CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ ⁢CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤⁢ CDM). In the context of the 𝑤⁢ CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2⁢𝜎.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Use of vibrational spectroscopy to identify the formation of neptunyl–neptunyl interactions: a paired density functional theory and Raman spectroscopy study

Actinyl–Actinyl interactions (AAIs) occur in pentavalent actinide systems, particularly for neptunium (Np), and lead to complex vibrational signals that are challenging to analyze and interpret. Previous studies have focused on neptunyl–neptunyl dimeric species, but trimers and tetramers have been identified as the primary motif for extended topologies observed in solid-state materials. Our hypothesis is that trimeric and tetrameric AAIs lead to the additional signals in the vibrational spectra, but this has yet to be explored systematically. Herein, we investigate three different neptunyl–neptunyl subunits (dimeric, trimeric, tetrameric) and determine the vibrational frequencies of the O=Np=O stretches using both computational and experimental approaches. Density Functional Theory (DFT) was used to identify distinct vibrational motions related to specific neptunyl oligomers and compared to previous literature precedent from Np(V) in HClO 4 and HCl systems. The vibrational behavior of Np(V) in HNO 3 was then evaluated via Raman spectroscopy. As the solution evaporated signals were linked to trimeric and tetrameric models. Solid phases produced in the evaporation include (NpO 2 ) 2 (NO 3 ) 2 (H 2 O) 5 and newly identified crystalline phase, Na(NpO 2 )(NO 3 ) 2 ·4H 2 O (NpNa). Furthermore, the combined computational studies and vibrational analysis provide evidence for unique observable vibrational bands for each polymerized subunit, allowing us to assign spectral features to trimeric and tetrameric models within three different simple anionic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Topological excitonic insulator with tunable momentum order

Correlated topological materials often maintain a delicate balance among physical symmetries. Many topological orders are symmetry protected, whereas most correlated phenomena arise from spontaneous symmetry breaking. Cases where symmetry breaking induces a non-trivial topological phase are rare. Here we demonstrate the presence of two such phases in Ta 2 Pd 3 Te 5 , where Coulomb interactions form excitons that condense below 100 K, one with zero and the other with finite momentum. We observed a full spectral bulk gap, which stems from exciton condensation. This topological excitonic insulator state spontaneously breaks mirror symmetries but involves a weak structural coupling. Scanning tunnelling microscopy shows gapless boundary modes in the bulk insulating phase. Their magnetic field response, together with theoretical modelling, indicates a topological origin. These observations establish Ta 2 Pd 3 Te 5 as a topological excitonic insulator in a three-dimensional crystal. Finally, our results manifest a unique sequence of topological exciton condensations in a bulk crystal, offering exciting opportunities to study critical behaviour and excitations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems using MOOSE

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems Using MOOSE-based Multiphysics Simulations

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of excess free energy at an interface according to the applied interpolation scheme for elasticity: A phase-field method

Phase-field modeling is an effective simulation technique for modeling microstructure evolution of elastically anisotropic systems. To introduce the elastic energy contribution in a phase field model, an interpolation scheme is used to define the mechanical properties within the phases and across the continuous interface. Several existing interpolation schemes introduce a potential excess elastic energy at the interface, which undesirable effect on microstructure evolution needs to be evaluated. In this study, we focused on three interpolation schemes including Khachaturyan’ scheme (KHS), Voigt–Taylor’s scheme (VTS), and Steinbach–Apel’s scheme (SAS). Comparisons of these schemes’ performances were performed in three configuration types using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework: bi-crystal, isotropic particle-matrix and anisotropic particle-matrix. The contribution of excess elastic energy on the interface energy as a function of interface width and the computational time to steady-state were evaluated in these three configurations. SAS introduces the lowest excess elastic energy contribution and the VTS has the biggest contribution amongst the considered schemes. Moreover, when modeling precipitation in an anisotropic elastic material, the SAS approach seems to predict more physical convex shapes during growth, making it preferable to KHS and VTS. Finally, as currently implemented, SAS requires the largest computational time and KHS requires the smallest time to reach steady-state amongst the considered schemes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗