Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistics of extremes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 397 records · Page 22
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Km‐Scale Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over South America—A Feature Tracker Intercomparison

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Automated object-based analyses that track MCSs have become popular since they allow us to identify and follow MCSs over their entire life cycle in a Lagrangian framework. This rise in popularity was accompanied by an increasing number of MCS tracking algorithms, however, little is known about how sensitive analyses are concerning the MCS tracker formulation. Here, we assess differences between six MCS tracking algorithms on South American MCS characteristics and evaluate MCSs in kilometer-scale simulations with observational-based MCSs over 3 years. All trackers are run with a common set of MCS classification criteria to isolate tracker formulation differences. The tracker formulation substantially impacts MCS characteristics such as frequency, size, duration, and contribution to total precipitation. The evaluation of simulated MCS characteristics is less sensitive to the tracker formulation and all trackers agree that the model can capture MCS characteristics well across different South American climate zones. Dominant sources of uncertainty are the segmentation of cloud systems in space and time and the treatment of how MCSs are linked in time. Our results highlight that comparing MCS analyses that use different tracking algorithms is challenging. We provide general guidelines on how MCS characteristics compare between trackers to facilitate a more robust assessment of MCS statistics in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Do not forget the electrons: Extending moderately-sized nuclear networks for multidimensional hydrodynamic codes

Context.Nuclear networks are widely used coupled with hydrodynamical simulations of explosive scenarios to account for the change of nuclear species and energy generation rate due to nuclear reactions. In this way, there is a feedback mechanism between the hydrodynamical state and the nuclear processes. Unfortunately, the timescale of nuclear reactions is orders of magnitude smaller than the dynamical timescale that drives hydrodynamical simulations. Therefore, these nuclear networks are usually very small, reduced in most cases to a dozen elements, especially when simulations are carried out in more than one dimension. Aims.We present here an extended nuclear network, with 90 species, designed for being coupled with hydrodynamic simulations, which includes neutrons, protons, electrons, positrons, and the corresponding neutrino and anti-neutrino emission. This network is also coupled with temperature, making it extremely robust and, together with its size, unique of its kind. The inclusion of electron captures on free protons makes the network very appropriate for multidimensional studies of Type Ia supernova explosions, especially when the exploding object is a massive white dwarf. Methods.We perform several tests that are relevant to simulate explosive scenarios, such as Type Ia supernovae and core-collapse supernovae. We compare the results of the 90 nuclei network with a standardα-chain network with 14 elements to evaluate the differences in the energy generation rate. We also evaluate the relevance of including the electrons in the network in terms of generated yields and how it affects the pressure of a degenerate fluid such as that of white dwarfs. The results obtained with the 90-nuclei network have been verified with a much larger 2000-nuclei network built from REACLIB (WinNet), in terms of nuclear energy generation rate, pressure, and produced yields. Results.The results obtained with the proposed medium-sized network compare fairly well, to a few percent, with those computed withWinNetin scenarios reproducing the gross physical conditions of current Type Ia supernova explosion models. In those cases where the carbon and oxygen fuel ignites at high density, the high-temperature plateau typical of the nuclear statistical equilibrium regime is well defined and stable, allowing large integration time steps. We show that the inclusion of electron captures on free protons substantially improves the estimation of the electron fraction of the mixture. Therefore, the pressure is better determined than in networks where electron captures are excluded, which will ultimately lead to more reliable hydrodynamic models. Explosive combustion of helium at low density, occurring near the surface layer of a white dwarf, is also better described with the proposed network, which gives nuclear energy generation rates much closer toWinNetthan typical reduced alpha networks. Conclusions.A nuclear network withN= 90 species, including electrons, aimed at multidimensional calculations of supernova explosions is described and verified. The proposed network is suitable for the study of Type Ia supernova explosions because it provides better values of pressure and electron abundance than other existing networks with smaller or even a similar size but without including electron capture processes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

First observation of 28 O

Subjecting a physical system to extreme conditions is one of the means often used to obtain a better understanding and deeper insight into its organization and structure. In the case of the atomic nucleus, one such approach is to investigate isotopes that have very different neutron-to-proton ($N/Z$) ratios than in stable nuclei. Light, neutron-rich isotopes exhibit the most asymmetric $N/Z$ ratios and those lying beyond the limits of binding, which undergo spontaneous neutron emission and exist only as very short-lived resonances (about 10 -21 s), provide the most stringent tests of modern nuclear-structure theories. Here we report on the first observation of 28 O and 27 O through their decay into 24 O and four and three neutrons, respectively. The 28 O nucleus is of particular interest as, with the $Z$ = 8 and $N$ = 20 magic numbers, it is expected in the standard shell-model picture of nuclear structure to be one of a relatively small number of so-called ‘doubly magic’ nuclei. Furthermore, both 27 O and 28 O were found to exist as narrow, low-lying resonances and their decay energies are compared here to the results of sophisticated theoretical modelling, including a large-scale shell-model calculation and a newly developed statistical approach. In both cases, the underlying nuclear interactions were derived from effective field theories of quantum chromodynamics. Finally, it is shown that the cross-section for the production of 28 O from a 29 F beam is consistent with it not exhibiting a closed $N$ = 20 shell structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of 𝐷 𝑠⁢1 ⁡(1 + )⁢(2536) + and 𝐷$^{*}_{𝑠⁢2}$⁡(2 + )⁢(2573) + production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the LHC

The production yields of the orbitally excited charm-strange mesons D s⁢1 ⁡(1 + )⁢(2536)+ and 𝐷$^{*}_{𝑠⁢2}$⁡(2 + )⁢(2573) + were measured for the first time in proton-proton (pp) collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV with the ALICE experiment at the LHC. The D$^{+}_{s⁢1}$ and D$^{*+}_{s⁢2}$ mesons were measured at midrapidity (|𝑦| < 0.5) in minimum-bias and high-multiplicity pp collisions in the transverse-momentum interval 2< 𝑝 T < 24 GeV/𝑐. Their production yields relative to the D$^{+}_{s}$ ground-state yield were found to be compatible between minimum-bias and high-multiplicity collisions, as well as with previous measurements in e ± ⁢p and e + ⁢e − collisions. The measured D$^{+}_{s⁢1}$/D$^{+}_{s}$ and D$^{*+}_{s⁢2}$/D$^{+}_{s}$ yield ratios are described by statistical hadronization models and can be used to tune the parameters governing the production of excited charm-strange hadrons in Monte Carlo generators, such as pythia 8.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature and density dependent pair potential for deuterium under shock

Large-scale classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations naturally include the microscopic physics necessary for atomistic modeling of shock release at the ablator-fuel interface in an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) capsule. Here, the multi-megabar shocks utilized in ICF experiments can drive the deuterium fuel from ambient to electron volt temperatures (T) and multi-fold compression. Modeling interatomic interactions over such an extreme range of conditions is challenging for empirical bond order potentials. We generate a pair potential for deuterium with explicit temperature and mass density dependence from ab initio density functional theory molecular dynamics using the iterative Boltzmann inversion method. This potential accurately reproduces the radial distribution functions and pressures from DFT in CMD equilibrium simulations across a wide range of thermodynamic conditions, yet fails to return the expected Hugoniot relations when used in direct CMD shock simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distribution function of nuclei from $\mathcal{e}^±$ scattering in the presence of a strong primordial magnetic field

The amplitude of the primordial magnetic field (PMF) is constrained from observational limits on primordial nuclear abundances. Within this constraint, it is possible that nuclear motion is regulated by Coulomb scattering with electrons and positrons (e ± s), while e ± s are affected by a PMF rather than collisions. For example, at a temperature of 10 9 K, thermal nuclei typically experience ~ 10 21 scatterings per second that are dominated by very small angle scattering leading to minuscule changes in the nuclear kinetic energy of order $\mathcal{O}$(1) eV. In this paper the upper limit on the effects of a possible discretization of the e ± momenta by the PMF on the nuclear momentum distribution is estimated under the extreme assumptions that the momentum of the e ± is relaxed before and after Coulomb scattering to Landau levels, and that during Coulomb scattering the PMF is neglected. This assumption explicitly breaks the time reversal invariance of Coulomb scattering, and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is not a trivial steady state solution of the Boltzmann equation under these assumptions. Here we numerically evaluate the collision terms in the Boltzmann equation, and show that the introduction of a special direction in the e ± distribution by the PMF generates no directional dependence of the collisional destruction term of nuclei. Large anisotropies in the nuclear distribution function are then constrained from big bang nucleosynthesis. Ultimately, we conclude that a PMF does not significantly affect the isotropy or big bang nucleosynthesis.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation of the Ω⁡(2012) baryon at the LHC

A signal consistent with the Ω⁡(2012) baryon has been observed with a significance of 15⁢𝜎 in pp collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV at the LHC. In this paper, the analysis technique is described and measurements of the mass and width of the Ω⁡(2012) are reported, along with the first measurement of its transverse-momentum spectrum and yield. This paper corroborates the observation by the Belle Collaboration of this excited Ω state and the observation that the Ω⁡(2012) has a rather narrow width for a strongly decaying resonance. The yield measurement is combined with a statistical thermal model calculation of strange baryon yield ratios to obtain estimates of the Ω⁢(2012) − → $Ξ⁢\bar{\textrm{K}}$ branching ratios. These results will improve our understanding of the internal structure and mass spectrum of excited baryon states and serve as a baseline for searches regarding modifications of these properties in high-temperature media.

Acharya, S. [INFN] (ORCID:0000000292135329)↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of peer review and science for advancing public understanding

We live in a time of rapid change. The Covid-19 pandemic has united the world to understand and develop solutions to protect the health and wellbeing of society. At the same time, access to information on the internet and social media has exploded. People are exposed to information with many claims. Some of the information is relevant and accurate. A significant fraction may be inaccurate, biased, and potentially dangerous. With Covid-19, the information might point to cures that are toxic or risks that are not relevant. The scientific community has developed a process to develop and convey knowledge. The validation of results and their interpretation is critical to advancing knowledge. The core of the scientific process is based on developing a hypothesis-driven concept, designing and executing an experimental approach to prove or disprove the hypothesis, conducting a statistical analysis of the results to confirm their validity, and interpreting their meaning and impact. When their work is completed the scientist prepares to publish the work. Publication requires peer review. Hypotheses, experimental approaches, results, and interpretation of results are independently and anonymously reviewed by a scientific peer. The reviewers are selected based on their expertise in the field. The peer review process is essential for the integrity of the scientific process. Without a robust scientific process, society cannot discriminate between validated results and interpretations and biased, inaccurate, and potentially dangerous conjecture. With inaccurate science society and policy makers may make poor decisions that could hurt people and the world around them. While scientists should not censor information available to the public, scientists have a responsibility to inform the public. We must articulate what the scientific process is and why it is essential when considering the validity of information. Scientist are responsible for pointing out when public information has not been vetted through a scientific process and therefore cannot be considered conclusive. Scientists are responsible for highlighting information that has been generated and vetted with the scientific process. Over time, our goal is for the public to value the scientific process based on peer review. The public could become enlightened to the necessity for peer review to support decisions and action. Scientists need to contribute to advancing public knowledge. When invited to serve as a peer reviewer, scientists have a responsibility to contribute to the process. We all are extremely busy making peer review a distraction. While peer review does not directly benefit our own work and career, it benefits our chosen field of science. This is very important for the research area that our journal, Water-Energy Nexus, is focusing on. We cover the convergence of science and technology integrating across large spatial ranges (micro to global) in environmental pollution and the balance of remediation issues with energy use. Water-Energy Nexus wants to provide scientists with a platform for scientific debate and discussion on this rich and complicated topic. With the manuscripts submitted to WEN cover integrated research topics across a broad range of subjects from environment sciences through energy engineering, the role of peer review is essential. Peer review on a new submission to WEN should not be biased towards a specific science field. It should be done considering the complex nature of issues in the water-energy nexus. Scientists need to contribute to the public dialog. To accomplish these goals, we need to be honest, accurate, articulate, and use understandable language. The impact of WEN is very diverse affecting society in many ways. The scientific audience for WEN is diverse and readers may not fully understand the content of the papers outside their research expertise. Therefore, scientists, especially those who want to contribute to WEN, should work with communications specialists to convey message to benefit society. The audience includes the general public and researchers outside the author’s core specialty. While the peer-reviewed journal article is the cornerstone of our careers and critical for advancing scientific knowledge, a general interest story could benefit society even more. The author cannot lose sight that our work has two audiences, the science community, and more importantly, our family, friends, neighbors, and policy makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

End-to-end online performance data capture and analysis for scientific workflows

With the increased prevalence of employing workflows for scientific computing and a push towards exascale computing, it has become paramount that we are able to analyze characteristics of scientific applications to better understand their impact on the underlying infrastructure and vice-versa. Such analysis can help drive the design, development, and optimization of these next generation systems and solutions. Here, we present the architecture, integrated with existing well-established and newly developed tools, to collect online performance statistics of workflow executions from various, heterogeneous sources and publish them in a distributed database (Elasticsearch). Using this architecture, we are able to correlate online workflow performance data, with data from the underlying infrastructure, and present them in a useful and intuitive way via an online dashboard. We have validated our approach by executing two classes of real-world workflows, both under normal and anomalous conditions. The first is an I/O-intensive genome analysis workflow; the second, a CPU- and memory-intensive material science workflow. Based on the data collected in Elasticsearch, we are able to demonstrate that we can correctly identify anomalies that we injected. The resulting end-to-end data collection of workflow performance data is an important resource of training data for automated machine learning analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Path integral Monte Carlo and density functional molecular dynamics simulations of warm dense MgSiO 3

In order to provide a comprehensive theoretical description of MgSiO 3 at extreme conditions, we combine results from path integral Monte Carlo and density functional molecular dynamics simulations and generate a consistent equation of state for this material. We consider a wide range of temperature and density conditions from 10 4 to 10 8 K and from 0.321 to 64.2 g/cm -3 (0.1- to 20-fold the ambient density). We study how the L and K shell electrons are ionized with increasing temperature and pressure. We derive the shock Hugoniot curve and compare with experimental results. Our Hugoniot curve is in good agreement with the experiments, and we predict a broad compression maximum that is dominated by the K shell ionization of all three nuclei while the peak compression ratio of 4.70 is obtained when the Si and Mg nuclei are ionized. To conclude, we analyze the heat capacity and structural properties of the liquid.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Collaborative Research: Unravelling the Physics Associated with the Production of Extremely Dense Plasma States of Microscale (Final Report) Nanosecond-pulsed Discharges

The aim of this project is to study and establish the physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of anomalously dense plasmas in high-pressure nanosecond-pulsed discharges. These discharges have a broad range of applications such as plasma-assisted combustion, plasma flow actuators, biomedical sterilization and exotic materials synthesis. The structure and formation of these discharges, producing high plasma densities of ~10 14 -10 15 cm -3 , are well-studied and understood. Fast-pulsed microscale high-pressure discharges can be driven to even higher densities of > 10 19 cm -3 , approaching warm dense matter conditions. The mechanisms that generate these plasmas have not been understood. Analysis of the warm dense matter state under laboratory conditions is an expensive and non-trivial endeavor. For instance, dense plasmas can be generated by electrical explosions of metal foils and wires. Plasmas generated after the explosion have a short lifetime and often present difficult conditions for diagnostics. Generation of dense plasmas was also achieved during high-voltage nanosecond pulsed discharges when the so-called explosive electron emission is obtained. Unfortunately, this process is very difficult to control for the studies of warm dense matter. In our recent study, we have shown that additional heating of plasma by lasers can further increase the density of plasma and even lead to the fully ionized state. This method, potentially, allows better control of the plasma parameters. In this work, we studied a second stage laser-heated micro-discharge using a self-consistent one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (1D PIC-MCC) model coupled with Maxwell’s equations. We predicted the generation of a fully ionized plasma on the picosecond time scale. However, this model considered the plasma as an ideal gas despite the high pressure and the nearly fully ionized state. The ideal plasma model assumes that the dilute gas approximation is valid, where the inter-particle interactions are negligible. For charged particles this assumption holds as long as the shielded Coulomb potential assumption is valid. For very high plasma densities, this concept breaks down since the Debye sphere surrounding each charged particle no longer contains enough electrons to statistically provide the shielding of the single particle Coulomb interaction potential. At such densities, the plasma can no longer be described as ideal and non-ideal coupling effects need to be considered. In this report, we elucidate our recent work of developing a PIC-MCC model with improvements for non-ideal plasma conditions due to Coulomb coupling at high densities. In particular, we study the interaction of green light radiation and a dense microplasma, and explore the non-ideal plasma effects in this interaction. In this computational model, we implement the two most important non-ideal effects: ionization potential depression (IPD) and enhanced collision cross sections. Our primary goal is to study the physics associated with electromagnetic (EM) wave heating, also called the second-stage wave-heating, and establish the role of plasma non-ideality in this phenomenon. Our secondary goal is to improve the chemistry mechanism of the 1D PIC-MCC model by including a more detailed excited species collision treatment. At high pressures, stepwise ionization from excited species might play an important role in the ionization process. Previously, this ionization mechanism was neglected due to the excitation collision cross section of xenon being smaller than that of ionization. However, a preliminary study showed that the excited species density in the initial microplasma was an order of magnitude higher than the electron density. Therefore, my aim is to determine the significance of this additional ionization pathway to the plasma generation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Strangeness Hadronization with Event-by-Event Production of Multistrange Hadrons

This Letter presents the first measurement of event-by-event fluctuations of the net number (difference between the particle and antiparticle multiplicities) of multistrange hadrons Ξ − and $\overline{Ξ}$ + and its correlation with the net-kaon number using the data collected by the ALICE Collaboration in pp, p-Pb, and Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The statistical hadronization model with a correlation over three units of rapidity between hadrons having the same and opposite strangeness content successfully describes the results. On the other hand, string-fragmentation models that mainly correlate strange hadrons with opposite strange quark content over a small rapidity range fail to describe the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How galaxies populate halos in extreme density environments: An analysis of the halo occupation distribution in SDSS

Recent works have shown that the properties of galaxy populations in simulated dark matter halos vary with large-scale environments. These results suggest a variation in the halo occupation distribution (HOD) in extreme density environments since the dynamical and astrophysical conditions prevailing in these regions may significantly affect the formation and evolution of their halos and residing galaxies, influencing the mean number of satellite galaxies. To analyse these effects, we identify cosmic voids and future virialised structures (FVS) in the Sloan Digital Sky Server Data Release 12 (SDSS-DR12) and estimate the HOD within these super-structures using group catalogues as dark matter halo proxies. Our goal is to use observational galaxy data to characterise the HOD within cosmic voids and FVS, explore the different properties of these galaxies populations and compare them with the general results outside these super-structures. We use a publicly available observational galaxy catalogue with information on redshifts, positions, magnitudes and other astrophysical features to build a volume complete galaxy sample and identify cosmic voids and FVS. Using a publicly available galaxy group catalogue as a proxy to dark matter halos, we compute the HOD within both types of super-structures for different absolute magnitude thresholds. We also study the dependence on the results on the main void and FVS properties, density and volume. We also analysed the main characteristics of the stellar content of galaxies inside these extreme-density regions such as the mean stellar age and the galaxy light concentration index. In all cases, we compare the results with those derived from the Field sample, defined by objects outside both types of environments. Inside cosmic voids, we find a strong decrease in HOD concerning the Field results. In the most extreme cases, the mean number of satellites fall to ~ 50%. Inside FVS, the HOD shows a significant increase to the Field, with a ~ 40% excess in the mean number of satellites. These results are present for the different galaxy luminosity ranges explored. In both environments, the differences with respect to the Field increases for the extreme values of the density environments. However, we obtain no signs of variations related to intrinsic characteristics of the super-structures, indicating that the effects depend mainly on the density of the large-scale environment. In addition, we find that the cumulative distribution of the mean age of stars of the central galaxy also varies in the different regions, this suggests that the history of the formation of the dark matter halos may be different. Finally, we explore the HOD for the 25% youngest (oldest) galaxies, based on the mean age of their stars. We find that for the low-mass groups the youngest galaxies are only present inside voids and are generally central galaxies. On the other hand, for the high-mass groups the FVS environments show the same increase in the HOD concerning the Field as previously mentioned. We find that cosmic voids lack a significant fraction of galaxies with the oldest stellar population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local cation order and ferrimagnetism in compositionally complex spinel ferrites

We present an exploration of a family of compositionally complex cubic spinel ferrites featuring combinations of Mg, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Mn, and Zn cations, systematically investigating the average and local atomic structures, chemical short-range order, magnetic spin configurations, and magnetic properties. All compositions result in ferrimagnetic average structures with extremely similar local bonding environments; however, the samples display varying degrees of cation inversion and, therefore, differing apparent bulk magnetization. Additionally, first-order reversal curve analysis of the magnetic reversal behavior indicates varying degrees of magnetic ordering and interactions, including potentially local frustration. Finally, reverse Monte Carlo modeling of the spin orientation demonstrates a relationship between the degree of cation inversion and the spin collinearity. Collectively, these observations correlate with differences in synthesis procedures. This work provides a framework for understanding magnetic behavior reported for “high-entropy spinels,” revealing many are likely compositionally complex oxides with differing degrees of chemical short-range order—not meeting the community established criteria for high or medium entropy compounds. Moreover, this work highlights the importance of reporting complete sample processing histories and investigating local to long-range atomic arrangements when evaluating potential entropic mixing effects and assumed property correlations in high entropy materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

HDG-1 Graphite Preirradiation Data Package Report

This report documents all pre-irradiation examination material-property measurement data for graphite specimens that are going to be used within the first high dose graphite (HDG) -1 irradiation capsule. The two new HDG capsules signify a major change to the AGC Experiment. HDG-1 and HDG-2 will replace the last two Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) capsules (AGC-5 and AGC-6) which were designed to irradiate graphite at the extreme upper operational temperatures for a very-high-temperature reactor (VHTR) design, 1100°C. These very high temperature AGC-5 and AGC-6 capsules have been repurposed to re-irradiated specimens (from AGC-2, AGC-3, and AGC-4) at the lower temperatures of 600°C and 800°C. HDG-1 will be irradiated at 600°C and HDG-2 will be irradiated at 800°C. By re-irradiating the previous AGC specimens a total maximum neutron dose of around 15 dpa (displacements per atom) can be achieved for all major graphite grades at irradiation temperatures of 600°C and 800°C. Specimens in the HDG-1 capsule are made up of previously irradiated specimens from the AGC-2 capsule and unirradiated specimens prepared for the now discontinued AGC-5 capsule. Utilizing the irradiated specimens, a maximum neutron dose of around 15 dpa is anticipated. These new maximum dose levels will provide irradiated material property data over a total neutron dose range of 1-15 dpa at a temperature of 600°C when combined with the previous AGC-1 and AGC-2 irradiation data. This will provide quantitative data necessary for predicting the irradiation behavior and operating performance of new nuclear graphite grades for use within high temperature reactor designs. Similar to previous AGC test trains, HDG-1 includes the major graphite grades (IG-110, NBG-17, NBG-18, PCEA, and 2114) as well as adding the very fine-grain grade IG-430 which is of interest to the Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) designs. Also new to the HDG-1 capsule are 90 smaller geometry specimens designated as pencil specimens. These specimens take up only one third the space of a standard creep size specimen. This increased number of specimens will enhance property measurement statistics because they will provide 3 times the control specimen data at a position that would otherwise only have a single measurement.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗