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NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2008

Space Weather: What is it, and Why Should a Meteorologist Care?

"Space weather" is a term coined almost 15 years ago to describe environmental conditions ABOVE Earth's atmosphere that affect satellites and astronauts. As society has become more dependent on technology, we nave found that space weather conditions increasingly affect numerous commercial and infrastructure sectors: airline operations, the precision positioning industry, and the electric power grid, to name a few. Similar to meteorology where "weather" often refers to severe conditions, "space weather" includes geomagnetic storms, radiation storms, and radio blackouts. But almost all space weather conditions begin at the Sun--our middle-age, magnetically-variable star. At NASA, the science behind space weather takes place in the Heliophysics Division. The Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, is manned jointly by NCAA and US Air Force personnel, and it provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth. Organizationally, it resides in NOAA's National Weather Service as one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. In this seminar we hope to give the audience a brief introduction to the causes of space weather, discuss some of the effects, and describe the state of the art in forecasting. Our goal is to highlight that meteorologists are increasingly becoming the "first responders" to questions about space weather causes and effects.

SaintCyr, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2022

Groundwater Variability Across India, Under Contrasting Human and Natural Conditions

Characterizing local to regional scale water cycles and water resources will be crucial for achieving the United Nations' water-related Sustainable Developmental Goals. However, quantification and understanding of groundwater extraction across scales have been hampered by inadequate water usage reporting and limited information on irrigation practices. Here we analyze observations from ∼15,000 groundwater monitoring wells and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites together with irrigation, agricultural, and meteorological datasets to show how drought-induced coupling between natural and anthropogenic groundwater storage variations has caused sustainability challenges in India, the world's biggest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Notably, the mechanisms and consequences of such coupling differ significantly depending on aquifer types. In Andhra Pradesh's hard rock aquifer, groundwater declines have been limited, despite the nearly constant water scarcity that its farmers face. Moreover, its free farm power policy involves an annual irrigation energy consumption of 26 billion kWh that costs US$ 2.5 billion, possibly unparalleled compared to any other part of the world of similar size (0.27 million km2). In West Bengal's highly permeable alluvial aquifer, the water table is declining rapidly (15 cm/yr) due to a policy that encourages irrigation. Situated between these two states, Odisha's aquifer shows substantial resilience to drought, owing to the state's relatively natural landscape and forest restoration policy. The findings of this study provide new insights to understand the divergent aspects of groundwater irrigation in north versus south India, which can enable development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to avert the looming water crisis.

Dileep K Panda↗
NASA NTRS2002

Astronauts Need Their Rest Too: Sleep-Wake Actigraphy and Light Exposure During Space Flight

The success and effectiveness of human space flight depends on astronauts' ability to maintain a high level of cognitive performance and vigilance. This alert state ensures the proper operation of sophisticated instrumentation. An important way for humans to remedy fatigue and maintain alertness is to get plenty of rest. Astronauts, however, commonly experience difficulty sleeping while in space. During flight, they may also experience disruption of the body's circadian rhythm - the natural phases the body goes through every day as we oscillate between states of high activity during the waking day and recuperation, rest, and repair during nighttime sleep. Both of these factors are associated with impairment of alertness and performance, which could have important consequences during a mission in space. The human body was designed to sleep at night and be alert and active during the day. We receive these cues from the time of day or amount of light, such as the rising or setting of the sun. However, in the environment of the Space Shuttle or the International Space Station where light levels are highly variable, the characteristics of a 24-hour light/dark cycle are not present to cue the astronauts' bodies about what time of the day it is. Astronauts orbiting Earth see a sunset and sunrise every 90 minutes, sending potentially disruptive signals to the area of the brain that regulates sleep. On STS-107, researchers will measure sleep-wake activity with state-of-the-art technology to quantify how much sleep astronauts obtain in space. Because light is the most powerful time cue to the body's circadian system, individual light exposure patterns of the astronauts will also be monitored to determine if light exposure is associated with sleep disruption. The results of this research could lead to the development of a new treatment for sleep disturbances, enabling crewmembers to avoid the decrements in alertness and performance due to sleep deprivation. What we learn about sleep in space informs treatment for earthbound populations, such as the elderly and insomniacs, who experience frequent sleep disturbances or altered sleep patterns.

Czeisler, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Miller, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2002

Latitude-Dependent Effects in the Stellar Wind of Eta Carinae

The Homunculus reflection nebula around eta Carinae provides the rare opportunity to observe the spectrum of a star from more than one direction. In the case of eta Car, the nebula's geometry is known well enough to infer how wind profiles vary with latitude. We present STIS spectra of several positions in the Homunculus, showing directly that eta Car has an aspherical and axisymmetric stellar wind. P Cygni absorption in Balmer lines depends on latitude, with relatively high velocities and strong absorption near the polar axis. Stronger absorption at high latitudes is surprising, and it suggests higher mass flux toward the poles, perhaps resulting from equatorial gravity darkening on a rotating star. Reflected profiles of He I lines are more puzzling, and offer clues to eta Car's wind geometry and ionization structure. During eta Car's high-excitation state in March 2000, the wind had a fast, dense polar wind, with higher ionization at low latitudes. Older STIS data obtained since 1998 reveal that this global stellar-wind geometry changes during eta Car's 5.5 year cycle, and may suggest that this star s spectroscopic events are shell ejections. Whether or not a companion star triggers these outbursts remains ambiguous. The most dramatic changes in the wind occur at low latitudes, while the dense polar wind remains relatively undisturbed during an event. The apparent stability of the polar wind also supports the inferred bipolar geometry. The wind geometry and its variability have critical implications for understanding the 5.5 year cycle and long-term variability, but do not provide a clear alternative to the binary hypothesis for generating eta Car s X-rays.

Smith, Nathan↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Sub-Neptune Desert and Its Dependence on Stellar Type: Controlled by Lifetime X-Ray Irradiation

Short-period sub-Neptunes with substantial volatile envelopes are among the most common type of known exoplanets. However, recent studies of the Kepler population have suggested a dearth of sub-Neptunes on highly irradiated orbits, where they are vulnerable to atmospheric photoevaporation. Physically, we expect this "photoevaporation desert" to depend on the total lifetime X-ray and extreme ultraviolet flux, the main drivers of atmospheric escape. In this work, we study the demographics of sub-Neptunes as a function of lifetime exposure to high-energy radiation and host-star mass. We find that for a given present-day insolation, planets orbiting a 0.3 solar mass star experience approximately 100 times more X-ray flux over their lifetimes versus a 1.2 solar mass star. Defining the photoevaporation desert as a region consistent with zero occurrence at 2 sigma, the onset of the desert happens for integrated X-ray fluxes greater than 1.43 times 10 (sup 22) to 8.23 times 10 (sup 20) as a function of planetary radii for 1.8 to 4 Earth radius. We also compare the location of the photoevaporation desert for different stellar types. We find much greater variability in the desert onset in the bolometric flux space compared to the integrated X-ray flux space, suggestive of photoevaporation driven by steady-state stellar X-ray emissions as the dominant control on desert location. Finally, we report tentative evidence for the sub-Neptune valley, first seen around Sun-like stars, for M&K dwarfs. The discovery of additional planets around low-mass stars from surveys such as the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission will enable detailed exploration of these trends.

Planets and Satellites: Gaseous Planets↗
NASA NTRS2014

Water Balance in the Amazon Basin from a Land Surface Model Ensemble

Despite recent advances in land surfacemodeling and remote sensing, estimates of the global water budget are still fairly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the water budget of the Amazon basin based on several state-ofthe- art land surface model (LSM) outputs. Water budget variables (terrestrial water storage TWS, evapotranspiration ET, surface runoff R, and base flow B) are evaluated at the basin scale using both remote sensing and in situ data. Meteorological forcings at a 3-hourly time step and 18 spatial resolution were used to run 14 LSMs. Precipitation datasets that have been rescaled to matchmonthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) datasets and the daily Hydrologie du Bassin de l'Amazone (HYBAM) dataset were used to perform three experiments. The Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme was forced with R and B and simulated discharges are compared against observations at 165 gauges. Simulated ET and TWS are compared against FLUXNET and MOD16A2 evapotranspiration datasets andGravity Recovery and ClimateExperiment (GRACE)TWSestimates in two subcatchments of main tributaries (Madeira and Negro Rivers).At the basin scale, simulated ET ranges from 2.39 to 3.26 mm day(exp -1) and a low spatial correlation between ET and precipitation indicates that evapotranspiration does not depend on water availability over most of the basin. Results also show that other simulated water budget components vary significantly as a function of both the LSM and precipitation dataset, but simulated TWS generally agrees with GRACE estimates at the basin scale. The best water budget simulations resulted from experiments using HYBAM, mostly explained by a denser rainfall gauge network and the rescaling at a finer temporal scale.

GPCP↗
NASA NTRS1990

Singular perturbation analysis of AOTV-related trajectory optimization problems

The problem of real time guidance and optimal control of Aeroassisted Orbit Transfer Vehicles (AOTV's) was addressed using singular perturbation theory as an underlying method of analysis. Trajectories were optimized with the objective of minimum energy expenditure in the atmospheric phase of the maneuver. Two major problem areas were addressed: optimal reentry, and synergetic plane change with aeroglide. For the reentry problem, several reduced order models were analyzed with the objective of optimal changes in heading with minimum energy loss. It was demonstrated that a further model order reduction to a single state model is possible through the application of singular perturbation theory. The optimal solution for the reduced problem defines an optimal altitude profile dependent on the current energy level of the vehicle. A separate boundary layer analysis is used to account for altitude and flight path angle dynamics, and to obtain lift and bank angle control solutions. By considering alternative approximations to solve the boundary layer problem, three guidance laws were derived, each having an analytic feedback form. The guidance laws were evaluated using a Maneuvering Reentry Research Vehicle model and all three laws were found to be near optimal. For the problem of synergetic plane change with aeroglide, a difficult terminal boundary layer control problem arises which to date is found to be analytically intractable. Thus a predictive/corrective solution was developed to satisfy the terminal constraints on altitude and flight path angle. A composite guidance solution was obtained by combining the optimal reentry solution with the predictive/corrective guidance method. Numerical comparisons with the corresponding optimal trajectory solutions show that the resulting performance is very close to optimal. An attempt was made to obtain numerically optimized trajectories for the case where heating rate is constrained. A first order state variable inequality constraint was imposed on the full order AOTV point mass equations of motion, using a simple aerodynamic heating rate model.

Calise, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗
NASA NTRS1982

Optimal short-range trajectories for helicopters

An optimal flight path algorithm using a simplified altitude state model and a priori climb cruise descent flight profile was developed and applied to determine minimum fuel and minimum cost trajectories for a helicopter flying a fixed range trajectory. In addition, a method was developed for obtaining a performance model in simplified form which is based on standard flight manual data and which is applicable to the computation of optimal trajectories. The entire performance optimization algorithm is simple enough that on line trajectory optimization is feasible with a relatively small computer. The helicopter model used is the Silorsky S-61N. The results show that for this vehicle the optimal flight path and optimal cruise altitude can represent a 10% fuel saving on a minimum fuel trajectory. The optimal trajectories show considerable variability because of helicopter weight, ambient winds, and the relative cost trade off between time and fuel. In general, reasonable variations from the optimal velocities and cruise altitudes do not significantly degrade the optimal cost. For fuel optimal trajectories, the optimum cruise altitude varies from the maximum (12,000 ft) to the minimum (0 ft) depending on helicopter weight.

Slater, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Assessment of impact damage of composite rocket motor cases

This contract reviewed the available literature on mechanisms of low velocity impact damage in filament wound rocket motor cases, MDE methods to quantify damage, critical coupon level test methods, manufacturing and material process variables and empirical and analytical modeling off impact damage. The critical design properties for rocket motor cases are biaxial hoop and axial tensile strength. Low velocity impact damage is insidious because it can create serious nonvisible damage at very low impact velocities. In thick rocket motor cases the prevalent low velocity impact damage is fiber fracture and matrix cracking adjacent to the front face. In contrast, low velocity loading of thin wall cylinders induces flexure, depending on span length and the flexure induces delamination and tensile cracking on the back face wall opposed to impact occurs due to flexural stresses imposed by impact loading. Important NDE methods for rocket motor cases are non-contacting methods that allow inspection from one side. Among these are vibrothermography, and pulse-echo methods based on acoustic-ultrasonic methods. High resolution techniques such as x-ray computed tomography appear to have merit for accurate geometrical characterization of local damage to support development of analytical models of micromechanics. The challenge of coupon level testing is to reproduce the biaxial stress state that the full scale article experiences, and to determine how to scale the composite structure to model full sized behavior. Biaxial tensile testing has been performed by uniaxially tensile loading internally pressurized cylinders. This is experimentally difficult due to gripping problems and pressure containment. Much prior work focused on uniaxial tensile testing of model filament wound cylinders. Interpretation of the results of some studies is complicated by the fact that the fabrication process did not duplicate full scale manufacturing. It is difficult to scale results from testing subscale cylinders since there are significant differences in out time of the resins relative to full scale cylinder fabrication, differences in hoop fiber tensioning and unsatisfactory coupon configurations. It appears that development of a new test method for subscale cylinders is merited. Damage tolerance may be improved by material optimization that uses fiber treatments and matrix modifications to control the fiber matrix interface bonding. It is difficult to develop process optimization in subscale cylinders without also modeling the longer out times resins experience in full scale testing. A major breakthrough in characterizing the effect of impact damage on residual strength, and understanding how to scale results of subscale evaluations, will be a sound micromechanical model that described progressive failure of the composite. Such models will utilize a three dimensional stress analysis due to the complex nature of low velocity impact stresses in thick composites. When these models are coupled with non-contact NDE methods that geometrically characterize the damage and acoustic methods that characterize the effective local elastic properties, accurate assessment of residual strength from impact damage may be possible. Directions for further development are suggested.

Paris, Henry G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Are You In or Out: the Influence of Sea Ice Drift on Sea Ice Survivability

The state of Arctic sea ice influences aspects of many global systems including ecosystems, economies, geopolitics, and climate. And, it is in severe decline. Numerous studies have considered the factors that influence Arctic sea ice decline using monthly mean or gridded data. However, these methods struggle to cleanly separate the influences on sea ice melt because the sea ice cover is always moving; thus, different sea ice floes and sea ice regimes constitute the monthly average sea ice state within the Eulerian frame. This study uses a LaGrangian sea ice parcel tracking satellite database to investigate the factors that influence sea ice parcel survivability. The concept of sea ice survivability is defined as the likelihood that a sea ice parcel will last through the summer melt season. Survivability can be stratified in many ways to analyze how it changes as a function of sea ice regime, region, and sea ice characteristics. How is the survivability of first year (FY) and multi-year (MY) ice classes influenced by sea ice motion? This is the central question addressed in this presentation. Specifically, this analysis determines sea ice survivability as a function of distance traveled by sea ice parcels and compares the survivability statistics for sea ice parcels that stay in their starting region versus those that leave their starting region. The preliminary results indicate that the influence of sea ice movement on survivability depends strongly on which region the sea ice resides in at the beginning of the growth season. Lastly, we find substantial inter-annual variability in the regional distribution of sea ice survivability that seems to be strongly linked to sea ice parcel drift between regions of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, we use these results to discuss the potential contribution of changes in sea ice motion on the observed slowdown in Arctic sea ice extent loss.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear development and secondary instability of Gortler vortices in hypersonic flows

In a hypersonic boundary layer over a wall of variable curvature, the region most susceptible to Goertler vortices is the temperature adjustment layer over which the basic state temperature decreases monotonically to its free stream value. Except for a special wall curvature distribution, the evolution of Goertler vortices trapped in the temperature adjustment layer will in general be strongly affected by the boundary layer growth through the O(M sup 3/2) curvature of the basic state, where M is the free stream Mach number. Only when the local wavenumber becomes as large as of order M sup 3/8, do nonparallel effects become negligible in the determination of stability properties. In the latter case, Goertler vortices will be trapped in a thin layer of O(epsilon sup 1/2) thickness which is embedded in the temperature adjustment layer; here epsilon is the inverse of the local wavenumber. A weakly nonlinear theory is presented in which the initial nonlinear development of Goertler vortices in the neighborhood of the neutral position is studied and two coupled evolution equations are derived. From these, it can be determined whether the vortices are decaying or growing depending on the sign of a constant which is related to wall curvature and the basic state temperature.

Fu, Yibin B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Modelling the high-latitude ionosphere

Results of an ionospheric model program are presented which demonstrate the extreme variability of the steady state, daytime, ionospheric F region electron density and ion composition due to both neutral atmospheric changes with solar cycle, season and magnetic activity, and to the effects of ionospheric drifts caused by perpendicular electric fields. Consideration is given to the time history of the ionospheric plasma as it undergoes convective motion due to the combined effects of corotation forces and electromagnetic forces which results from the mapping of the magnetospheric cross tail electric field to the rotating ionosphere. A simple model of the convection pattern is described. The model calculates the net effect of the tendency for the plasma to corotate about the geographic pole and the E sub Bar times B sub Bar velocity induced by a perpendicular electric field mapped to a circle centered about a point 5 deg antisunward of the geomagnetic pole and oriented such that the equipotentials are parallel to the noon midnight meridian. This convection pattern shows the generally accepted features of high latitude convection, but because of the offset between the geographic and geomagnetic poles a marked universal time dependence in these features is predicted.

Raitt, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ti-48Al-2Cr-2Nb Evaluated Under Fretting Conditions

Material parameters govern many of the design decisions in any engineering task. When two materials are in contact and microscopically small, relative motions (either vibratory or creeping) occur, and fretting fatigue can result. Fretting fatigue is a material response influenced by the materials in contact as well as by such variables as loading and vibratory conditions. Fretting produces fresh, clean interacting surfaces and induces adhesion, galling, and wear in the contact zone. Time, money, and materials are unnecessarily wasted when galling and wear result in excessive fretting fatigue that leads to poorly performing, unreliable mechanical systems. Fretting fatigue is a complex problem of significant interest to aircraft engine manufacturers. It can occur in a variety of engine components. Numerous approaches, depending on the component and the operating conditions, have been taken to address the fretting problems. The components of interest in this investigation were the low-pressure turbine blades and disks. The blades in this case were titanium aluminide, Ti-48Al-2Cr- 2Nb, and the disk was a nickel-base superalloy, Inconel 718 (IN 718). A concern for these airfoils is the fretting in fitted interfaces at the dovetail where the blade and disk are connected. Careful design can reduce fretting in most cases, but not completely eliminate it, because the airfoils frequently have a skewed (angled) blade-disk dovetail attachment, which leads to a complex stress state. Furthermore, the local stress state becomes more complex when the influence of the metal-metal contact and the edge of contact are considered.

Miyoshi, Kazuhisa↗
NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗