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DOE OSTI2024

Simulations of flaming combustion and flaming-to-smoldering transition in wildland fire spread at flame scale

Our objective in the present study is to provide basic insights into the coupling between external-gas and solid biomass vegetation processes that control the dynamics of flame spread in wildland fire problems. Here we focus on a modeling approach that resolves processes occurring at vegetation and flame scales, i.e., the formation of flammable vapors due to the thermal degradation of the solid biomass, the subsequent combustion in ambient air, the thermal feedback to the biomass through radiative and convective heat transfer, and the possible transition from flaming combustion (taking place outside of the solid biomass) to smoldering combustion (taking place inside the solid biomass). The capability uses a multiphase combustion framework and treats external-gas processes through a Large Eddy Simulation solver and solid biomass processes through a discrete particle model. The discrete particle model adopts a one-dimensional porous medium formulation, includes descriptions of drying, thermal pyrolysis, oxidative pyrolysis, and char oxidation, as well as a description of the external-gas-to-solid-biomass diffusion of oxygen mass; the discrete particle model thereby provides a treatment of in-depth oxidative processes and allows the simulation of smoldering combustion. The modeling capability is applied to the simulation of fire spread across a surrogate biomass vegetation bed corresponding to a discrete array of cylindrical-shaped, vertically-oriented, pine wood sticks, characterized by a monomodal size distribution, in horizontal flat terrain and under wind-aided conditions. The numerical results demonstrate that the model can simulate successful flaming-to-smoldering transition followed by complete biomass consumption.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Laser Beam Propagation Through Inhomogeneous Media with Shock-Like Profiles: Modeling and Computing

Wave propagation in inhomogeneous media has been studied for such diverse applications as propagation of radiowaves in atmosphere, light propagation through thin films and in inhomogeneous waveguides, flow visualization, and others. In recent years an increased interest has been developed in wave propagation through shocks in supersonic flows. Results of experiments conducted in the past few years has shown such interesting phenomena as a laser beam splitting and spreading. The paper describes a model constructed to propagate a laser beam through shock-like inhomogeneous media. Numerical techniques are presented to compute the beam through such media. The results of computation are presented, discussed, and compared with experimental data.

Adamovsky, Grigory↗

DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven multiscale model for reactive wetting simulations

Here, we describe a data-driven, multiscale technique to model reactive wetting of a silver–aluminum alloy on a Kovar™ (Fe-Ni-Co alloy) surface. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the dependence of surface tension and wetting angle on the drop’s composition and temperature. A design of computational experiments is used to efficiently generate training data of surface tension and wetting angle from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results are used to parameterize models of the material’s wetting properties and compute the uncertainty in the models due to limited data. The data-driven models are incorporated into an engineering-scale (continuum) model of a silver–aluminum sessile drop on a Kovar™ substrate. Model predictions of the wetting angle are compared with experiments of pure silver spreading on Kovar™ to quantify the model-form errors introduced by the limited training data versus the simplifications inherent in the molecular dynamics simulations. The paper presents innovations in the determination of “convergence” of noisy MD simulations before they are used to extract the wetting angle and surface tension, and the construction of their models which approximate physio-chemical processes that are left unresolved by the engineering-scale model. Together, these constitute a multiscale approach that integrates molecular-scale information into continuum scale models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2003

Computational And Experimental Studies Of Three-Dimensional Flame Spread Over Liquid Fuel Pools

Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) studied ignition and flame spread above liquid fuels initially below the flashpoint temperature by using a two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics code that solves the coupled equations of both the gas and the liquid phases. Pulsating flame spread was attributed to the establishment of a gas-phase recirculation cell that forms just ahead of the flame leading edge because of the opposing effect of buoyancy-driven flow in the gas phase and the thermocapillary-driven flow in the liquid phase. Schiller and Sirignano (1996) extended the same study to include flame spread with forced opposed flow in the gas phase. A transitional flow velocity was found above which an originally uniform spreading flame pulsates. The same type of gas-phase recirculation cell caused by the combination of forced opposed flow, buoyancy-driven flow, and thermocapillary-driven concurrent flow was responsible for the pulsating flame spread. Ross and Miller (1998) and Miller and Ross (1998) performed experimental work that corroborates the computational findings of Schiller, Ross, and Sirignano (1996) and Schiller and Sirignano (1996). Cai, Liu, and Sirignano (2002) developed a more comprehensive three-dimensional model and computer code for the flame spread problem. Many improvements in modeling and numerical algorithms were incorporated in the three-dimensional model. Pools of finite width and length were studied in air channels of prescribed height and width. Significant three-dimensional effects around and along the pool edge were observed. The same three-dimensional code is used to study the detailed effects of pool depth, pool width, opposed air flow velocity, and different levels of air oxygen concentration (Cai, Liu, and Sirignano, 2003). Significant three-dimensional effects showing an unsteady wavy flame front for cases of wide pool width are found for the first time in computation, after being noted previously by experimental observers (Ross and Miller, 1999). Regions of uniform and pulsating flame spread are mapped for the flow conditions of pool depth, opposed flow velocity, initial pool temperature, and air oxygen concentration under both normal and microgravity conditions. Details can be found in Cai et al. (2002, 2003). Experimental results recently performed at NASA Glenn of flame spread across a wide, shallow pool as a function of liquid temperature are also presented here.

Ross, Howard D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Modeling and simulation of a turbulent far wake

Work continued on two projects which had been started during previous years. Both projects involve calculations of the subsonic, turbulent far wake of a two-dimensional object at a Reynolds number of 1000 (based on wake momentum thickness). This flow was used as a test case for direct comparison of various turbulence models and a direct numerical simulations (DNS) of this flow were undertaken. In the turbulence model comparison studies, for any particular model tested, a unique self-similar solution was obtained far enough downstream, regardless of inlet conditions. Furthermore, different turbulence models led to different far-wake equilibrium solutions. No turbulence model could correctly predict all features of the turbulent far wake. For example, the spreading rate and turbulent shear stresses were underpredicted by all the standard models (both two-equation and full Reynolds stress models). In cases where a more correct spreading rate was achieved, it was at the expense of the turbulent kinetic energy, which was overpredicted. In general, the Algebraic Dissipation Rate Model of Gatski and Speziale, 1992, when added to any of the standard models, improved the results dramatically. Also, full Reynolds stress closure models did a much better job at predicting the shapes of both the mean and turbulence profiles, but the spreading rate was not significantly improved over that predicted by the simpler two-equation models. There are two main conclusions from these studies: First, in a comparison such as this, it is not enough to compare just one parameter, like the spreading rate. A good prediction for one parameter does not necessarily imply good predictions for all parameters in a flow. Second, since no turbulence model could correctly predict the turbulent far wake, much of the important physics of turbulent free shear flows is apparently lost by the assumptions inherent in today's methods of turbulence modeling; turbulence models must be improved. Direct simulations of this flow were begun last year in order to provide a data base through which some of the deficiencies of the existing turbulence models could be identified. Quantities such as the pressure-strain correlation, turbulent diffusion, and the dissipation rate tensor can be easily calculated from the DNS results, whereas these quantities are nearly impossible to measure experimentally. Improvements to existing turbulence models (and development of new models) require knowledge about flow quantities such as these. During this summer, diagnostics codes were written which will calculate the parameters mentioned above, along with other single-point and multi-point statistics. The DNS calculations are still in progress at the time of this writing. When these calculations are complete, the diagnostics codes will be applied so that the results can aid turbulence modelers. In addition, the results will show whether or not there exists a universal equilibrium turbulent far wake, independent of initial conditions.

Cimbala, John M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strong-field QED limitations on TeV-class plasma wakefield accelerators

We demonstrate that quantum and classical radiation effects can become non-negligible for TeV-class beams propagating through plasma channels typical of staged plasma accelerators. Although the quantum nonlinearity parameter χ e remains small under currently envisioned experimental conditions, the cumulative influence of radiation over long acceleration distances can lead to significant modifications to the beam’s energy spread, emittance, and polarization. Our analytic models, validated by particle-in-cell simulations, highlight that for standard Gaussian beams, the orbit-induced energy spread dominates over quantum stochastic effects but can be mitigated by tailoring the beam profile, for example, through ring-shaped transverse distributions. In regimes where the radiation reaction approaches the accelerating force, the emittance may be cooled, forming distinctive ring-shaped phase-space structures. Finally, we analyze the influence of the radiation effect on spin transport inside the wakefield. These findings underscore the importance of considering both classical and quantum radiation dynamics in the design and optimization of future high-intensity plasma accelerators.

accelerator↗

NASA NTRS1993

Ignition and subsequent flame spread over a thin cellulosic material

Both ignition and flame spread on solid fuels are processes that not only are of considerable scientific interest but that also have important fire safety applications. Both types of processes, ignition and flame spread, are complicated by strong coupling between chemical reactions and transport processes, not only in the gas phase but also in the condensed phase. In most previous studies, ignition and flame spread were studied separately with the result that there has been little understanding of the transition from ignition to flame spread. In fire safety applications this transition is crucial to determine whether a fire will be limited to a localized, temporary burn or will transition into a growth mode with a potential to become a large fire. In order to understand this transition, the transient mechanisms of ignition and subsequent flame spread must be studied. However, there have been no definitive experimental or modeling studies, because of the complexity of the flow motion generated by buoyancy near the heated sample surface. One must solve the full Navier-Stokes equations over an extended region to represent accurately the highly unstable buoyant plume and entrainment of surrounding gas from far away. In order to avoid the complicated nature of the starting plume problem under normal gravity, previous detailed radiative ignition models were assumed to be one-dimensional or were applied at a stagnation point. Thus, these models cannot be extended to include the transition to flame spread. The mismatch between experimental and calculated geometries means that theories cannot be compared directly with experimental results in normal gravity. To overcome the above difficulty, theoretical results obtained without buoyancy can be directly compared with experimental data measured in a microgravity environment. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a theoretical model for ignition and the transition to flame spread and to make predictions using the thermal and chemical characteristics of a cellulosic material which are measured in normal gravity.

Nakabe, Kazuyoshi↗

NASA NTRS1994

Ignition and Wind Effects on the Transition to Flame Spread in a Microgravity Environment

The fundamental processes involved in ignition and flame spread have been extensively studied, they are generally studied separately without combining ignition and flame spread through the transition process. Moreover, the majority of the flame spread studies assume steady state flame spread. To study the transient aspects of ignition and the transition to flame spread, a time-dependent numerical model has been developed in which a thin strip is ignited along its width with either a pilot wire, radiative source, or both. For this configuration, the model is two-dimensional. Ignition is initiated away from either end of the sample, and two different flame fronts spread in opposite directions; one flows with and the other against a prescribed external flow. Usually, the flame spread is initiated by ignition at one end of the sample with or against a slow external flow, yielding one flame front. The present configuration is more realistic than the one flame front case because there is interaction between the two flames during the ignition and transition stages.

McGrattan, Kevin B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Stagnation Flow in Streamer Boundaries

Flow tubes adjacent to closed magnetic field lines on the boundaries of streamers can have spreading factors which change rapidly with height. Numerical models in this thin layer are subject to uncertainties. Here we use an analytic model of magnetically closed and adjacent open regions to compute the spreading factor close to the closed field lines and the flow on the open field lines. We axe able to recover the shape of the closed field region, or helmet, and show the evolution of the helmet under slowly increasing temperature. We also show why and when stagnation flow can occur in the vicinity of the cusp at the top of the helmet.

Suess, Steven T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Parameterized Lateral Mixing on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in a Coupled Climate Model

This study examines the impact of changing the lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained, with values ranging across an order of magnitude in climate models. The ACC is difficult to accurately simulate, and there is a large spread in eastward transport in the Southern Ocean (SO) in these models. This paper examines how much of that spread can be attributed to different eddy parameterization coefficients. A coarse-resolution, fully coupled model suite was run with A Redi = 400, 800, 1200, and 2400 m 2 s -1 . Additionally, two simulations were run with two-dimensional representations of the mixing coefficient based on satellite altimetry. Relative to the 400 m 2 s -1 case, the 2400 m 2 s -1 case exhibits 1) an 11% decrease in average wind stress from 50° to 65°S, 2) a 20% decrease in zonally averaged eastward transport in the SO, and 3) a 14% weaker transport through the Drake Passage. The decrease in transport is well explained by changes in the thermal current shear, largely due to increases in ocean density occurring on the northern side of the ACC. In intermediate waters these increases are associated with changes in the formation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the deep increases are associated with changes in the wind stress curl allowing Antarctic Bottom Water to escape and flow northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Material Response of the MSL Heatshield Using NuSil-Coated PICA

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) was protected during its atmospheric entry by an instrumented heatshield that used NASA's Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material [1]. PICA is a lightweight carbon fiber/polymeric resin material that offers outstanding performance for protecting probes during planetary entry. Data from the Mars Entry Descent and Landing Instrument (MEDLI) suite on MSL offers unique in-flight validation data for models of material response and atmospheric entry. MEDLI recorded, among other things, time-resolved in-depth temperature data of PICA using thermocouple sensors assembled in the MEDLI Integrated Sensor Plugs (MISP) [2]. A space-grade silicone-based coating commercially known as NuSil CV-1144-0 [3] was applied to the entire MSL heatshield, including the MEDLI plugs, to mitigate the spread of dust from PICA. Modeling the thermal response of PICA-NuSil (PICA-N) system is still an open challenge. Ground testing of PICA-N models exhibited surface temperature jumps of the order of 150 K due to oxide scale formation and sub-sequent NuSil burn-off. It is therefore critical to include a validated model for the material response of the coating in engineering codes. A test campaign has been conducted at the NASA’s Langley HyMETS [4] facility to screen the response of PICA-N and gather detailed data on its behavior [5]. A first model of PICA-N thermal response has been developed using the Hy-METS experiments [6]. The objective of this work is to analyze the material response of the latest PICA-N model compared to the engineering model used to simulate the entry of MSL. The environment and material response around the MSL aeroshell during Mars atmospheric entry is simulated using a collection of tools. The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo SPARTA code [7] is used in the rarefied regime, the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) code [8] is used in the continuum regime and radiative heating conditions are provided by the Nonequilibrium air radiation (NEQAIR) code [9] to estimate the environmental conditions. The thermal response inside the material is computed using the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on Open-FOAM (PATO) [10,11,12]. Thermodynamic and chemistry properties are estimated using the Mutation++ library [13]. The approach implemented in PATO as a first cut PICA-N thermal response model is outlined in Figure 1. While the recession is less than the coating thickness, the Surface mass and energy balance Boundary Condition (SBC) uses the NuSil B’ tables. Once the recession removes the coating, the usual PICA B’ tables are used for the SBC. The B’ tables are computed using an equilibrium solver implemented in Mutation++, given the temperature, pressure, blowing rate, composition of the pyrolysis and environment gases, and the condensed species at the surface. Preliminary results of the 3D material response of the MSL heat-shield at the peak heating (80 sec after Entry Interface) are shown in Figure 2. Current NASA’s mission to Mars, Mars 2020, used the spare heatshield of MSL for thermal protection during entry, descent, and landing. In preparation for Mars 2020 post-flight analysis, the PATO high-fidelity material response capability was benchmarked against flight data from MEDLI. This effort represents an important milestone toward the development of validated predictive capabilities for designing thermal protection systems for planetary probes. This bench-marking is awaiting the final release of the MEDLI-2 data.

Aerospace↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying the Effect of Mixing on the Mean Age of Air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 Models

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

CCMI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identifying mitigation strategies for $\mathrm{COVID}$-$\mathrm{19}$ superspreading on flights using models that account for passenger movement

Despite commercial airlines mandating masks, there have been multiple documented events of COVID-19 superspreading on flights. Conventional models do not adequately explain superspreading patterns on flights, with infection spread wider than expected from proximity based on passenger seating. An important reason for this is that models typically do not consider the movement of passengers during the flight, boarding, or deplaning. Understanding the risks for each of these aspects could provide insight into effective mitigation measures. We modeled infection risk from seating and fine-grained movement patterns – boarding, deplaning, and inflight movement. We estimated infection model parameters from a prior superspreading event. We validated the model and the impact of interventions using available data from three flights, including cabin layout and seat locations of infected and uninfected passengers, to suggest interventions to mitigate COVID-19 superspreading events during air travel. Specifically, we studied: 1) London to Hanoi with 201 passengers, including 13 secondary infections among passengers; 2) Singapore to Hangzhou with 321 passengers, including 12 to 14 secondary infections; 3) a non-superspreading event on a private jet in Japan with 9 passengers and no secondary infections. Here our results show that the inclusion of passenger movement better explains the infection spread patterns than conventional models do. We also found that FFP2/N95 mask usage would have reduced infection by 95–100%, while cloth masks would have reduced it by only 40–80%. Results indicate that leaving the middle seat vacant is effective in reducing infection, and the effectiveness increases when combined with good quality masks. However, with a good mask, the risk is quite low even without the middle seats being empty. Our results suggest the need for more stringent guidelines to reduce aviation-related superspreading events of COVID-19.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

Transition Heat Transfer Modeling Based on the Characteristics of Turbulent Spots

While turbulence models are being developed which show promise for simulating the transition region on a turbine blade or vane, it is believed that the best approach with the greatest potential for practical use is the use of models which incorporate the physics of turbulent spots present in the transition region. This type of modeling results in the prediction of transition region intermittency which when incorporated in turbulence models give a good to excellent prediction of the transition region heat transfer. Some models are presented which show how turbulent spot characteristics and behavior can be employed to predict the effect of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region. The models predict the spot formation rate which is needed, in addition to the transition onset location, in the Narasimha concentrated breakdown intermittency equation. A simplified approach is taken for modeling turbulent spot growth and interaction in the transition region which utilizes the turbulent spot variables governing transition length and spot generation rate. The models are expressed in terms of spot spreading angle, dimensionless spot velocity, dimensionless spot area, disturbance frequency and Mach number. The models are used in conjunction with a computer code to predict the effects of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region and compared with VKI experimental turbine data.

Simon, Fred↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogate for charged particle beam dynamics with space charge based on a recurrent neural network with aleatoric uncertainty

In this work, we develop a machine learning (ML) model with aleatoric uncertainty for the low energy beam transport (LEBT) region of the LANSCE linear accelerator in which we model the transport of a space-charge-dominated 750 keV proton beam through a lattice of 22 quadrupole magnets. Our ML model is developed based on data generated by a Kapchinsky–Vladimirsky (KV) envelope model of beam transport. We show that a recurrent neural network can be used as a dynamical surrogate model for fast prediction of the LEBT beam envelope. Furthermore, we endow the model with the prediction of aleatoric uncertainty and compare three different approaches. We demonstrate that the ML-based uncertainty quantification models are well calibrated and produce good estimates of the regions where the model is less certain about its predictions. This ML framework is a necessary step in the development of a real-time virtual diagnostic tool with uncertainty quantification that can be integrated into more complex downstream tasks (e.g., adaptive control or learning flexible control policies via reinforcement learning) for improved efficiency in beam operations. In future work, we plan to expand on this preliminary study by considering more realistic envelope models that include longitudinal momentum spread and dispersive effects in bending magnets, as well as particle tracking codes with 3D space charge (such as and ). Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase. These amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. The SCAE in this case extends to mid-latitudes.

Mengel, J. G.↗