Predictions for the First Parker Solar Probe Encounter
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B. van der Holst↗
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Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal
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Bibhuti Kumar Jha↗
Effect of Additional Magnetograph Observations From Different Lagrangian Points in Sun‐Earth System on Predicted Properties of Quasi‐Steady Solar Wind at 1 AU
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A. A. Pevtsov↗
Predicting Well-Connected SEP Events from Observations of Solar EUVs and Energetic Protons
This study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.
Nunez, Marlon↗
The Encounter of the Parker Solar Probe and a Comet-like Object Near the Sun: Model Predictions and Measurements
The Parker Solar Probe (PSP) aims to explore the nascent solar wind close to the Sun. Meanwhile, PSP is also expected to encounter small objects like comets and asteroids. Here, we survey the ephemerides to find the chance of a recent encounter and then model the interaction between released dusty plasmas and solar wind plasmas. On 2019 September 2, a comet-like object, the 322P/Solar and Heliosphere Observatory, just passed its perihelion flying to a heliocentric distance of 0.12 au and swept by PSP at a relative distance as close as 0.025 au. We present the dynamics of the dust particles released from 322P, forming a curved dust tail. Along the path of PSP in the simulated inner heliosphere, the states of plasma and magnetic field are sampled and illustrated, with the magnetic field sequences from simulation results being compared directly with the in situ measurements from PSP. Through the comparison, we suggest that 322P might be at a deficient activity level releasing limited dusty plasmas on its way to becoming a "rock comet." We also present images of solar wind streamers as recorded by the Wide-field Imager for Solar Probe Plus, showing an indication of dust bombardment for the images superposed with messy trails. We observe from the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph that 322P was transiting from a dimming region to a relatively bright streamer during its perihelion passage, and perform a simulation to confirm that 322P was flying from relatively faster to slower solar wind streams, modifying the local plasma states of the streams.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Interaction of the solar wind with interstellar neutral hydrogen - Three-fluid model
It is commonly assumed in models of the solar wind-interstellar neutral hydrogen interaction that the ionized interstellar particles are quickly assimilated into the solar wind proton population and 'become indistinguishable' from the original solar wind. This assumption leads to the prediction that the solar wind proton temperature should increase with radius in the outer heliosphere. This temperature increase has not been observed. It is pointed out that assimilation of the interstellar particles to the point of indistinguishability takes place on the very long Coulomb collision time scale, and is not expected to occur within the heliosphere. Results are presented of a three-fluid model of the solar wind which consists of comoving thermal populations of protons of solar origin, protons produced by ionization of interstellar hydrogen, and electrons. The steady-state results yield a solar wind with a 'core' proton distribution which cools adiabatically, and a 'halo' of interstellar pickup protons which is maintained near 10 to the 7th K by the energy input of continued ionization and pickup. Such a distribution will not be observed to manifest the temperature increase at large heliocentric distances which is predicted from a one-fluid analysis. Further time-dependent calculations show a strong correlation between the densities of the solar wind and the interstellar pickup protons. It is suggested that the interstellar pickup population may be observable by the Voyager plasma instruments in low resolution mode during periods of high solar wind density and low solar wind temperature.
Isenberg, P. A.↗
Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP)--Cumulative and Worst-Case Event Fluences
The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.
Xapsos, M. A.↗
Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP): Cumulative and Worst Case Event Fluences
The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.
Xapsos, M. A.↗
Using the Modified Precursor Method to Estimate the Size of Cycle 24
Modified geomagnetic precursor techniques for predicting the size of the following sunspot cycle are developed, where these techniques use the 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days (when Ap greater than or equals 25), the Ap index, the aa index, and the aaI index at about 4 yr during the declining portion of the preceding sunspot cycle. For cycle 24, these techniques suggest that its RM will measure about 130 +/- 14, a value outside the consensus prediction interval of the low prediction (90 +/- 10) given by the NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. Furthermore, cycle 24 is predicted to be a fast-rising cycle (ASC = 44 +/- 5 months), peaking before April 2012, presuming the official start of cycle 24 in March 2008. Also discussed are the variation of solar cycle lengths and Hale cycle effects, as related to cycles 23 and 24.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Quantitative tests of a steady state theory of solar wind electrons
A comparison is made of IMP 6, 7 and 8 electron data with the predictions of a solar wind electron steady state theory in which the control of transport by the macroscopic interplanetary electric and magnetic fields, as well as elastic Coulomb collisions with solar wind protons and thermal electrons, is assumed. While a ratio of forward to backward phase density for field-aligned extrathermal electrons of 6:1 is predicted, electron distribution measurements within the high speed solar wind show this ratio to be typically about an order of magnitude larger. A set of solar wind bulk speed anticorrelations predicted by the theory on the basis of a larger set of assumptions cannot be found in the IMP electron data set, so that improved agreement may require such modifications of the theory's assumptions as the inclusion of inelastic Coulomb and/or wave electron collisions.
Feldman, W. C.↗
Hydrogen, helium, and other solar-wind components in lunar soil - Abundances and predictions
The lack of a shielding atmosphere on the moon permits solar-wind particles to impinge upon the lunar soil and become implanted into the various phases which comprise the soil. Relatively large quantities of solar-wind implanted hydrogen (50-100 ppm) and helium (10-50 ppm) are present. The measured parameter of I(s)FeO, a direct indicator of maturity and exposure age, can be used as a first approximation to predict the abundances of many solar-wind components in the soils. However, because ilmenite acts as a 'sponge' for the retention of certain elements, the TiO2 content of the soil is a better indicator for hydrogen and helium contents.
Taylor, Lawrence A.↗
Solar cell performance mathematical model Quarterly report
Mathematical model for predicting performance of solar cells in aerospace environments
Barrett, M. J.↗
Solar wind stream evolution at large heliocentric distances - Experimental demonstration and the test of a model
A stream propagation model which neglects all dissipation effects except those occurring at shock interfaces, was used to compare Pioneer-10 solar wind speed observations, during the time when Pioneer 10, the earth, and the sun were coaligned, with near-earth Imp-7 observations of the solar wind structure, and with the theoretical predictions of the solar wind structure at Pioneer 10 derived from the Imp-7 measurements, using the model. The comparison provides a graphic illustration of the phenomenon of stream steepening in the solar wind with the attendant formation of forward-reverse shock pairs and the gradual decay of stream amplitudes with increasing heliocentric distance. The comparison also provides a qualitative test of the stream propagation model.
Gosling, J. T.↗
Predicting photothermal field performance
Photothermal field performance in flat plate solar collectors was predicted. An analytical model which incorporates the measured dependency between transmittance loss and UV and temperature exposure levels was developed. The model uses SOLMET weather data extrapolated to 30 years for various sites and module mounting configurations. It is concluded that the temperature is the key to photothermally induced transmittance loss. The sensitivity of transmittance loss to UV level is nonlinear with minimum in curve near one sun. The ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) results are consistent with 30 year life allocation.
Gonzalez, C. C.↗
Interpretation of Solar Wind Ion Composition Measurements from Ulysses
The ion compositions measured in situ in the solar wind are important since the ion fractions carry information on the plasma conditions in the inner corona. The conditions in the inner corona define the properties of the solar wind plasma flow. Thus, if the ion fraction measurements can be used to unravel some of the plasma parameters in the inner corona, they will provide a valuable contribution to solving the heating and acceleration problem of the solar wind. The ion charge states in the solar wind carry information on electron temperature, electron density and ion flow speed. They are also sensitive to the shape of the electron distribution function. Through carefully modeling the solar wind and calculating the ion fractions predicted for different solar wind conditions, constraints on the electron temperature and ion flow speeds can be placed if the electron density is measured using polarization brightness measurements.
Esser, Ruth↗
Annular and Total Solar Eclipses of 2010
While most NASA eclipse bulletins cover a single eclipse, this publication presents predictions for two solar eclipses during 2010. This has required a different organization of the material into the following sections. Section 1 -- Eclipse Predictions: The section consists of a general discussion about the eclipse path maps, Besselian elements, shadow contacts, eclipse path tables, local circumstances tables, and the lunar limb profile. Section 2 -- Annular Solar Eclipse of 2010 Ja n 15: The section covers predictions and weather prospects for the annular eclipse. Section 3 -- Total Solar Eclipse of 2010 Jul 11: The se ction covers predictions and weather prospects for the total eclipse. Section 4 -- Observing Eclipses: The section provides information on eye safety, solar filters, eclipse photography, and making contact timings from the path limits. Section 5 -- Eclipse Resources: The final section contains a number of resources including information on the IAU Working Group on Eclipses, the Solar Eclipse Mailing List, the NASA eclipse bulletins on the Internet, Web sites for the two 2010 eclipses, and a summary identifying the algorithms, ephemerides, and paramete rs used in the eclipse predictions.
Espenak, Fred↗
The NASA Radiation Health Program
The NASA program for determining the impact of cosmic radiation on health is described in terms of its long-term goal of reducing the uncertainty of radiation-model prediction to +/- 25 percent by 2010. The Space Radiation Health Program (SRHP) is intended to address fundamental issues for establishing a scientific basis for human radiation protection: (1) the prediction of the probability of biological effects from radiation; (2) the reduction of uncertainty in predicted highly charged energetic particles; and (3) the characterization of background flux from Galactic cosmic rays. Another key objective is to develop related technologies for ground- and space-based solar monitoring to predict events involving solar energetic particles. Although substantial uncertainties are involved in the prediction of such events, the SRHP is essential for determining crucial variables related to launching mass and humans into orbit.
Nicogossian, A. E.↗
Long-Term Solar Activity Studies Using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25
We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.
N. Gopalswamy↗